I hate being back to speculation again, but:
Wolf - 90%, probably the easiest addition, with Star Fox Wii U confirmed he'd be a great way to promote it.
Ice Climbers - 70%, they were working perfectly on Wii U. Now they have plenty of time to fix them, so I'd say they'll most likely be back, but it might be a while, depending on how much trouble they had.
Lucas - 35%, mainly because he's simply not that popular outside of Smash and Nintendo seems adamantly against localizing Mother 3.
Snake - 5%, I don't see third-party DLC happening.
Chorus Men - 5%, under the slim chance that all the rumors were accurate and not just feeding off of each other. Otherwise I'd say its more likely to get popular characters as DLC, or characters who were unfinished for the main game. Chorus Men is not happening unless they truly were planned, and I highly doubt they ever were.
Isaac - 80%, no reason for GS to be cut. It had a game since Brawl, yes it wasn't THAT popular, but neither was Metroid: Other M, and look at all the Metroid: Other M content in the game.
King K. Rool - 75%, extremely popular, probably the most popular/wanted character now that Mewtwo is confirmed.
Dixie Kong - 70%, I'd say there's a chance to get both, but K. Rool slightly wins it for me based on popularity and importance to the series. Dixie is important, but not nearly as much as K. Rool. The game itself confirms it by acknowledging K. Rool as DK's main antagonist.
Impa - 30%, she's still probably the most likely Zelda character in my eyes. But Sakurai probably thinks Zelda is well rounded right now.
That's about it.
I really think that DLC is most likely going to be most of the lower-priority characters leftover from development (like Mewtwo apparently was), with a few characters from newer games thrown in.
This is why I can see characters like Ray, Chibi Robo, Isaac, etc. actually making it in through DLC, since they wouldn't have been very high on the priority list due to their franchises not seeming to have much of a future/lacking a bit in popularity. A DK character (probably Dixie) is pretty likely as well, maybe even a Zelda character (especially with Zelda U being released next year).
Aside from that, an Inkling, Captain Toad, Henry (Codename: S.T.E.A.M.), and potentially a few other characters from upcoming games are all pretty likely as well. Alt. Costume DLC could tie in to that too, maybe we'll get a Woolly Yoshi, or the new Link, etc.
Well, the thing is, Sakurai doesn't like adding characters whose franchises may not continue or who may not appear again period. He was hesitant to add Ganondorf of all characters in Melee because he wasn't sure if Ganondorf would come back. I don't think we're getting Inkling, Henry, or any other characters from a "new" franchise like that. If a new game is confirmed to be in development for an established franchise, then yes I could see it happening. Otherwise, the max I can see is references to said franchise in future DLC packs, such as trophies, but not actual characters.
Captain Toad, on the other hand, is an established Mario character, so that I could easily see happening.
The frequency of them popping up in fake leaks (I'm assuming that's what you mean?) has no sway in how likely they are. A lot of people thought that Mach Rider, Dixie, Ridley, and a few others were guaranteed because they were in a lot of fake leaks, and look what happened there.
Yes, this EXACTLY. The reason those characters kept popping up is because one leak brought it up which seemed legit at the time, so every other fake leaker out there started adding them to future leaks to try and get "credibility" to their fake leaks.
Granted, the main argument right now is that it looks like Ridley may have been planned to be playable at one point. Which I agree with, but it doesn't mean anything for any of these fake leaks that popped up.
: His aerials are pretty abysmal and I feel like most of his power comes in that pitiful ranged F-smash.
