I guess I wasn't clear what I call a lock.
Paper Mario, Ridley, Mewtwo, Ghirahim and dark pit are "locked" on my roster. This means that I'm VERY entitled to my opinion of keeping them because I have enough evidences to believe their tease. They will not be removed until [deconfirmed], but Paper Mario may be unlock under only one condition and that is receiving info that would break or heavily question my tease theory. I have to remind you that his spot relies only on this that's why. I don't really expect the others to have their tease break so it's locked until [deconfirmed].
I was already clear on no cuts. You can speculate a priority list, but that still doesn't tell me if the bottom will be cut since it could have to do with external reasons (dev issues or time constraints). Also, that's assuming the priority list which would be too annoying for me to speculate on.
The thing about teases is that I noticed a pattern concerning the reaction. The people who would care the most would be the first to consider the possibility while the one who don't care that much will imply something that contradicts the tease and so, deny it. The fact that supporters were the first to consider it on Mewtwo doesn't tell me anything and it might even suggest that there was a tease. In other words, if it was a tease, that's expected to happens.
If amount of rep doesn't matter that much, amount of clone shouldn't too. It matters even less considering that they are easy to make especially for veterans since you have a base idea. That and my no cut view. He COULD be cut, but I don't have a particular reason.
I'm pretty sure Shulk is at least second party, but I don't think he's a third party so snake has nothing to do with his chances. Btw, uniqueness not only is subjective, but it only explains why it's WORTH not why he WOULD be in. I can implement a hundreds different movesets for Paper Mario and it doesn't tell me if he would be in, but it does tell me the motive behind such an addition. Anyway, I already said I'm unsure on him as it just me feeling that he would get in and so, he's unlocked. So it might change.
I'm unsure on KKR, but I don't see him as a stretch.
Ridley is probably the most locked spot on my roster. I speculated HEAVILY on his case to tell you that I'm VERY confident he'll be in. It's been months, not having a theory suggesting not playable that is still consistent is worth mentioning. It's far from a stretch and even if you don't consider my tease logic here, it's a perfect 50/50 due to how I can prove that the direct wasn't in any way clear. 50/50 isn't a stretch.
I just want to point my opinion on mii as I don't see anyone mentioned it.
In the 3ds trailer, you can see a sort of multi man melee/brawl mode when you fight against mii. This is very important because for me, there aren't just a slot, but also had to be optimized for such a mode. One slot, multiple purposes so you save dev time to do something like in melee or brawl, original enemies. That's why I think they have only one slot, but I think it was mentioned in E3 anyway.
I just don't think snake will return. From what I heard, it doesn't really sounds promising so I see more a cut than not cut. Could be wrong, but that's what I think.
To be honest, I expected at least one person to disagree with Paper Mario. I saw a lot of skepticism for such a theory and that may be due to not much people are interested to see him playable. Which is understandable, but if it's true, it worked very well.
I mean, don't get me wrong--I totally think your roster is plausible, and do mostly agree with it. Everyone's entitled to an opinion, I totally respect yours, your reasoning is great. And I'd be 98% content if it were the final pick (the exception is Snake would be gone). As a side note, I never played Xenogears, and don't really know anything about Shulk. I did want to give it a shot, but it costs more than the Wii you play it on!
I thought the Miis would have three slots because on the website they go out of their way to talk about how each one is very unique from the other, and each has their own 12 special moves and standard moves. The main point is that Sakurai counts them as three separate characters, so in a roster it makes sense to also count them as three. The number of slots they take up on the CSS isn't important I guess.
There's a couple of things I'm confused on. I think you said there will be no Brawl veteran cuts, and a that priority list doesn't matter, but Snake is cut on your prediction roster. If Snake is cut, why can't another character be? Even though he's third party, it's still a veteran cut. And if being third party matters as a reason to be cut, then that places him at the bottom of a priority list for being third party. Separately, at the beginning of your post you said Paper Mario was locked, but further down you said he was unlocked. Which is it?
You seem dead-set in the idea that teased characters will be placed in the roster, and I won't try to change your mind. So that said I'll frame things from that point of view.
I really, really don't think Mewtwo was teased in the Greninja trailer. It was more like a, who's that character over there, taadaaaa kind of moment. Greninja was in a shadow because he's a
ninja. What better way to do a reveal for a ninja than him throwing a shuriken from the shadows in a tree? Which totally would not apply to Mewtwo, or basically any other pokemon.
And, Wolf has not been teased at all. Falco was teased in the Corneria stage reveal by there being only two arwings or whatever they're called. We know there's four on the team, so if we only see two, then we can be teased that Falco is a fighter. For Wolf to be teased you'd have to show only three enemy arwings, or do the tease somewhere else somehow, which hasn't happened.
KKR also hasn't been teased. The only hint is that Kremlings are in the Kirby's Air Ride mode, which I don't think is a tease for KKR as a playable character. Why not a tease for a boss character, since Kremlings are enemies? A Rhythym Heaven character enemy is also there, so Chorus Boys or whoever else would be just as plausible, or more plausible, since Kremlings are from an already represented franchise and the ghost dude is not.
The boss character thing goes for Ridley, too. Why is he necessarily teased as a playable character instead of a boss character, which he is actually
more teased to be? I would LOVE him to be playable, but he could be teased as a boss and not a playable character. If the fifth person could use the gamepad to control the boss characters in stages, that would be rad and he would technically be playable. It's just as much a possibility, so I wouldn't say he's locked per se.
So, there it is. I like your roster, but I don't think it's as locked as you say. I totally respect your stuff though, no troll.