I mean, don't get me wrong--I totally think your roster is plausible, and do mostly agree with it. Everyone's entitled to an opinion, I totally respect yours, your reasoning is great. And I'd be 98% content if it were the final pick (the exception is Snake would be gone). As a side note, I never played Xenogears, and don't really know anything about Shulk. I did want to give it a shot, but it costs more than the Wii you play it on!
I thought the Miis would have three slots because on the website they go out of their way to talk about how each one is very unique from the other, and each has their own 12 special moves and standard moves. The main point is that Sakurai counts them as three separate characters, so in a roster it makes sense to also count them as three. The number of slots they take up on the CSS isn't important I guess.
There's a couple of things I'm confused on. I think you said there will be no Brawl veteran cuts, and a that priority list doesn't matter, but Snake is cut on your prediction roster. If Snake is cut, why can't another character be? Even though he's third party, it's still a veteran cut. And if being third party matters as a reason to be cut, then that places him at the bottom of a priority list for being third party. Separately, at the beginning of your post you said Paper Mario was locked, but further down you said he was unlocked. Which is it?
You seem dead-set in the idea that teased characters will be placed in the roster, and I won't try to change your mind. So that said I'll frame things from that point of view.
I really, really don't think Mewtwo was teased in the Greninja trailer. It was more like a, who's that character over there, taadaaaa kind of moment. Greninja was in a shadow because he's a ninja. What better way to do a reveal for a ninja than him throwing a shuriken from the shadows in a tree? Which totally would not apply to Mewtwo, or basically any other pokemon.
And, Wolf has not been teased at all. Falco was teased in the Corneria stage reveal by there being only two arwings or whatever they're called. We know there's four on the team, so if we only see two, then we can be teased that Falco is a fighter. For Wolf to be teased you'd have to show only three enemy arwings, or do the tease somewhere else somehow, which hasn't happened.
KKR also hasn't been teased. The only hint is that Kremlings are in the Kirby's Air Ride mode, which I don't think is a tease for KKR as a playable character. Why not a tease for a boss character, since Kremlings are enemies? A Rhythym Heaven character enemy is also there, so Chorus Boys or whoever else would be just as plausible, or more plausible, since Kremlings are from an already represented franchise and the ghost dude is not.
The boss character thing goes for Ridley, too. Why is he necessarily teased as a playable character instead of a boss character, which he is actually more teased to be? I would LOVE him to be playable, but he could be teased as a boss and not a playable character. If the fifth person could use the gamepad to control the boss characters in stages, that would be rad and he would technically be playable. It's just as much a possibility, so I wouldn't say he's locked per se.
So, there it is. I like your roster, but I don't think it's as locked as you say. I totally respect your stuff though, no troll.