Perhaps we've reached a misunderstanding. I'd expect the roster to increase by about ten movesets based off of interviews and the working conditions of the game itself. Sakurai said not to expect too many newcomers, that not all characters would return, and that putting in each character is like multiplication. Add in the fact that Nintendo really, really needs this game to launch without any delays and that they have to create each character in two versions, and I think that roughly ten to twelve newcomers with a small number of cuts is about the most likely scenario. It's true that he's probably focusing the game more on the versus mode this time, but each newcomer is more difficult to add than in the past, so I don't think we'll get as large an increase as in Brawl or Melee.
It does seem that there was a miscommunication. I was purely addressing the sentiment of your motto, which I took to mean "Nobody likes to be disappointed, so you might as well lower your expectations". I interpreted this as you arguing on the basis of personal preference, which, while fine, is certainly less tenable as a line of argumentation (it's probably more opinion than argument anyway, given the subjective underpinning).
I see that you do have a case backed by empirical data, though, which is excellent. I'm familiar with all of this information, save perhaps the bolded. I've read that the Sakurai stated they'd
try to not do cuts, though they made no guarantee. Unless you are referring to some other source in which he explicitly states that no, not all characters from Brawl (/Melee) will be returning this time around (for posterity, perhaps you could present this source).
We have five newcomers now, and Palutena/Takamaru/Mewtwo/Ridley/DK Newcomer (and
maybe a Namco-Bandai or other Third-Party character) are next in line in terms of probability, which brings us up to 10-11. 10-15 Newcomers seems the sweetspot for SSB4 (I could easily envision 11-13). I'd actually be fine with less Newcomers if it means quality over quantity, but that's a different matter.
Newcomers and Third-Parties will have the highest priority, I expect, followed by the more prominent Veterans. If Cuts are to happen, they will happen in the latter phases of the development process, especially since they are aiming for a 2014 release. True, we have the multiplication factor at play, and work being done across two systems; but conversely, we have a larger team (due to the Sora/Namco-Bandai partnership), and the removal of a time-consuming story-heavy campaign. These latter factors may be enough to counteract the impact of the former.
Maybe you can make a case for more newcomers than that. Perhaps you could ***** the evidence differently than I do and make a case that fifteen newcomers are plausible. However, when my reasoning is just as valid as yours and you could just as possibly have only ten, it's better to anticipate the lower number.
I don't think the issue is actually about Less VS More Newcomers. Rather, there is a dearth of persuasive or convincing information that could lead to one position being more tenable than the other. So indeed, both approaches are valid, but only as far as we currently stand. I'm eager to learn more about the potential size and distribution of the final roster, so that our predictions may be more accurate and better substantiated.
I'm not against Cuts, or having less Newcomers. There is simply nothing at the moment that, in my view, suggests that Cuts are anything more than an abstract potentiality (though I will certainly adjust my stance accordingly the moment new information comes to light).