Groose's February 2014 Prediction Roster
Music to listen to as you critique: Samus Aran's Theme Orchestral
I listened to this music three times as I made the roster, and I think it should get you in the mood as I read my reasoning.
This is my prediction roster. It is not a roster a that I necessarily want or consider ideal, but the one I feel has the highest chance of happening. There may be one or two areas where my preferences clouded my judgement (K. Rool, Ridley), and there may be one or two places where my roster has been influenced by the opinion of the masses (Pokemon Representation), but I have tried to make this as logical and personal as possible. I would like some objective, critical feedback; please try not to let your own ideal situations interfere in your critique.
1) 45 Slots/49 Movesets. This is always my predicted roster size--feasibly, I suppose the roster it could get a little larger, but I never get my expectations up above 45 slots/50 movesets. That way, I won't be so bitterly disappointed if it turns out we get low 40's.
2) Three Cuts: R.O.B., Lucas, and Wolf.
- I feel that a few cuts are inevitable because Sakurai said that "not all characters would return." Plus, expecting cuts and receiving none is better than expecting none and receiving some.
- Wolf was my first cut. He was last minute in Brawl, and probably will not be very high-priority this time, either. Part of his moveset could be given to Falco.
- Lucas was my second cut. I just couldn't find enough room for both him and Ness on the roster, and Ness has seniority now.
- R.O.B. was not originally supposed to be cut, but I had miscounted and included 46 slots instead of 45. I had to make a cut to fit in with my guiding rule. I feel this may be symbolic--they will try to include R.O.B., but time constraints may very well get to him.
- Snake is notably not cut. I feel like Sakurai will want him in there, and I don't think Nintendo has enough cards to stop him. Still, when I realized I overshot my intended roster size, I was torn between cutting him or R.O.B., and I chose the former. Snake is the next character I would cut.
- Neither Sheik nor ZSS will be cut, and Pokemon Trainer's Pokemon remain the same.
3) 13 Newcomers: Villager, Mega Man, Wii Fit Trainer, Rosalina, Little Mac, K. Rool, Waddle Dee, Ridley, Palutena, Chibi Robo, Mewtwo, Pac-Man, Mii.
- K. Rool is in, Dixie is not. I feel like we would have seen Dixie already if she were in--it would have made so much sense top promote Tropical Freeze. The closer to launch we get, the more likely a late-reveal K. Rool seems.
- Waddle Dee is in. We haven't seen the Waddle Dee Toss yet, and I can think of only two reasons for this: it's either still being worked on or it's been removed, perhaps in favor of a playable Dee. Still, I chose him mostly for balancing the roster--he's that one character who isn't top-tier in requests and isn't widely expected, but isn't completely outside the realm of discussion.
- Ridley is in. Sakurai's been teasing us with the Pyrosphere all along. Personally, I still think it could go either way, but I refuse to make a roster without him.
- Palutena is in. Not only do I believe the leak (hence why I used that image for her face on the roster), but I also feel she has a really good shot even if it's not true. She may be the newest member, but she is one of the "Super Six" of popular requests.
- Chibi-Robo. Yeah. I'm still expecting one more "surprise-type" character, and he's one I just have this hunch about. I considered Dillon, Ray, Tingle, and more for this spot, but I ultimately went with this hunch of mine.
- Mewtwo. The only thing noteworthy with this pick is that I'm treating him as a newcomer. I think they'll at least make a trailer for him.
- Pac-Man. Pac-Man has fallen out of favor with predictions rosters recently, but I feel he's among the most likely newcomers. I don't think Sakurai would be able to reject him if Bandai asked for him, and I'd be surprised if Bandai didn't ask for a character. When this is combined with the Sal Romano prediction (which I feel has a good shot at having credibility), I just couldn't refrain from putting him on my prediction roster.
- Miis. Miis are the closest thing we have to a shoo-in newcomer, in my eyes. They're icons of Nintendo more well known any characters we're considering, save perhaps Pac-Man. Even Mewtwo is probably less recognizable than a Mii nowadays. Add in the customization statements and the fact that the reasoning they weren't on past Smash games is now completely null, and they really seem likely. They may be absolutely despised by the majority of more devoted, mature Smashers, but among younger, newer Smashers they're a top-tier request. I feel Sakurai will try to please that crowd in some way, and adding Miis would be a better path than adding Shadow the Hedgehog, Goku or Spongebob. I used Reggie's Mii as the image, but I expect customization. If the Mii slot has an image at all, I expect it will either be Miyamoto's face or Reggie's face; I went with Reggie here because I think they will go there and use that joke.
4) Considered and Rejected Ideas
- Ike was cut for Chrom when I wrote out my roster, but I changed this last minute before I uploaded the image. Ike could very well be cut to cater to the many new Fire Emblem fans, but I don't think Sakurai would give up on him so easily. Let's just say that if DLC were to happen after development, I'd be expecting a Fire Emblem character.
- Shulk was one of the characters I initially wanted to include, but he just couldn't make the final cut. I'd say that if I had to increase my roster size to 48 slots, he'd probably make the cut.
- I considered adding a new "retro" character (of which the leading candidate was Takamaru), but I just didn't quite fit it in. I ultimately reasoned that Little Mac could be deemed enough of a revival... and joked that King K. Rool could be considered one as well Huge DK fan and K. Rool supporter here: it was a joke, don't shoot me!
- As I mentioned before, I briefly considered adding a few other characters like Dillon, Ray, Tingle, Takamaru, and also Isaac, Impa, Tetra, and Dixie, but none of them were in serious contention like Shulk or Chrom.
5) My Doubts and Uncertainties
- Pokemon Series Cast--in the end, I went with what is widely expected, but my gut tells me we may see a bit of a shakeup there. I caved, and I'm not sure that it was the right thing to do.
- Lack of a Retro/Historical character. I think Little Mac could classify (especially so after watching his trailer), but I still fear that there will be a second classic character that I failed to include.
- Too many newcomers--I've long predicted between six and twelve newcomer for this game, yet I just included thirteen. I fear that I overshot in that regard, and this is made worse in that it means I now expect too many newcomers, and am bound for disappointment in that regard.
- Snake. I'm leaning towards in, but it's very close and I very nearly cut him.
Whew. There you have it. This is probably the final prediction roster I'll make, and from now on I'll just edit this one as necessary. I'm hoping that your feedback will enable me to make some edits soon, but remember: my expectations are my expectations, and it will take a good argument to change them.
This is the first roster in a while I've had an actual opinion on, and if you don't mind I'd like to throw my two cents in on the matter.
First: Epic choice in music, very nice. If only this would play on the character selection screen! *laughs*
To business! First of all your cuts; I think Wolf and Falco are fairly interchangeable, we'll get one and not the other. I think from a design perspective Wolf's Brawl moveset was more interesting and unique, and so I'd prefer him over Falco. That being said, it's such a small point that it barely warrants writing down. I agree with Lucas, and I'm sorely tempted to cut Snake out. 2/35 characters were 3rd party in Brawl; assuming this is a reasonable percentage I would argue at absolute most 3/45 seems reasonable. So either Pac-Man or Snake should go. Again I have no strong feelings on either.
R.O.B. is not a character I can see being cut for a variety of reasons; first of all he has his moment in Nintendo history, and secondly he is the closest we will get to a character from Smash given his massive importance in SSE. I've always considered him essentially a unique character in that story, as he's the only one with a truly invented personality. I'm very tempted to say you should include him.
Now for newcomers:
I have no real stake in the argument between Dixie and K. Rool, I prefer K. Rool but some illogical gut feeling tells me we'll get Dixie. Either way, I mentally treat them as equivalent, and I think it'll just come down to who Sakurai feels would be better in the game.
Waddle Dee is a character I have a huge amount of mixed feelings on. Frankly speaking, I like Kirby as a franchise but have never liked playing Kirby characters in Brawl; they are too floaty to me. So understand I am slightly biased. That being said, I do not think a fourth Kirby rep is likely. Sakurai has been known to avoid over-representing his own series in the past; I sincerely believe he put both Meta Knight and King D3 in Brawl because he thinks D3 > MK but the fan demand for Meta Knight made him feel he had to include Meta Knight. I like him as a character, don't get me wrong, but I don't think he's more likely than a decent set of characters on the roster. In particular, it feels odd to remove Lucas, the main protagonist of 1/3 of his series, to add Waddle Dee, very much a side character for almost all of his series. Also, a spear user is thematically interesting, but a character who's somewhat fast and uses disjointed hitboxes with a sweet spot to hit their opponents at some range has been done before.
Ridley is, for me, impossible to say. He was the only truly glaring omission from Brawl and people have been essentially asking for him since pre-Melee. I'd like to see him in, but I have this sneaking suspicion it won't happen. That being said I'd leave him; he's off and on in my rosters as well.
As a fellow believer of the Palutena leak and someone who hasn't played Kid Icarus enough to care or do more research on it (I don't like Pit in Brawl) I just shrug and assume she's in. She looks fun and Staff/Shield is a cool combo.
Chibi Robo is one I don't understand because I don't know enough about the franchise. I do believe that we will have a surprise character, but whether or not they should be included would, for me, be entirely based on how "unique" the character could be said. Again, I must proclaim ignorance in how they might function. Would they truly be unique? If not then I would argue against them.
I've already said my bit on Pac Man and I view Mii as an inevitable character. The boards here are against them because the concept of a Mii was never really meant for them to begin with. They were a huge hit with the casual crowd and a lot of people still view Miis as an integral part of Nintendo's platforms. I think Sakurai knows this and must have made some sort of plan for them.
Other characters worth considering.
OK, I should get this out of the way now. I've only ever played two fire emblem games, the DS remake of the first and the newest, Fire Emblem Awakening. I didn't really particularly enjoy the DS one I played, but I really enjoyed Fire Emblem Awakening. I, and I suspect many others who picked up Fire Emblem Awakening as their first FE game, will be very confused and disappointed if we did not get some sort of representation. I honestly think people who don't think Chrom will be in are kidding themselves; he's one of the most popular lords ever in the franchise. Will Ike get cut for him? No idea. But I really think Chrom will be in. I'm fairly open to the premise of Chrom + Lucina or Chrom + Robin because teaming up was such a huge deal in that game but Chrom will be playable in some form.
Don't get me wrong, I'd prefer Robin myself as I think Smash needs more spellcasters and Robin has a cool design and personality. My preferences unfortunately do not match well with reality and Chrom seems an inevitability to me. Insanely popular, well designed, and the lord to more or less save his franchise. He is one of the few characters that would legitimately shock me if he was not in the game in some form. (Aside: I'm personally hoping from Chrom + Lucina, as Lucina is so badass.)
Please note I'm not advocating for Ike to be cut; he occupies a really nice design space and a lot of my friends would be really sad to see him go. I think they are the three we will get.
Alright, Fire Emblem out of the way.
I'll look at pokemon next: I agree that we're not getting that set but predicting the set we do get is going to be a lot harder. Mewtwo seems safe, but I'm very unsure about Pokemon Trainer. To my knowledge he has a very small Smash fanbase and two of his pokemon, Squirtle and Ivysaur, are not really *that* iconic in the grand scheme of things. That being said, I'll be shocked if Charizard is cut. So I guess I would advocate Charizard as a solo character with a retooled moveset to reflect the fact he's no longer 1/3 a character. Is that the only shock up? No idea. I have this weird feeling Jiggs will get cut in favor of some new fairy type (Sylveon or Gardevoir) but I'm *really* hoping that isn't the case. I could also see us randomly getting Blaziken or Victini or some foolishness like that. I'll pay lip service to Zoroark, but I really can't see it for some reason.
I really think we'll see a retro character. Don't ask me which as I'm hilariously biased; if I was given the ability to insert any one character, my runner up would be Mach Rider. (My first pick would be Skull Kid T_T). Takamaru and Lip seem likely candidates for this role as well. I don't see the others outside of Duck Hunt Dog as a joke, and even then he'd be better as an assist trophy.
Shulk, Isaac, and co are cool characters I would like to see and I could see one of them making it in, but you've sort of run out of room at this point so I wouldn't worry about it too much.
Finally, I feel the need to point out that with every character released outside of WFT they've been very unique and even WFT looks somewhat unique although I suspect in execution she will play more similarly to other characters on the roster. I would pour over your set and try to determine if any of them are not terribly unique and consider trying to remove them in favor of more unique characters. For example, Pac Man is very much a blank canvas such that it is hard to imagine him having any unique or interesting abilities. Waddle Dee inhabits a space similar to Meta Knight/Marth/Kirby in aspects of his design character. Chibi Robo and R.O.B. might step on each other's toes. I also use this to predict who will be cut somewhat as Lucas and Ness inhabit a very similar space in terms of moves and design and the space animals are in a similar boat. It's also part of the potential reason I think Jiggs might go; she inhabits a space very similar to kirby in momentum and moveset possibilities. I know that in most games they've been seen as decently different but they are more close to each to each other than most characters. Luigi/Mario and Link/TLink can be brought up at this point with gusto, but I feel that Luigi is far more important than Jiggs to his series and Link vs Toon Link occupy oddly different design spaces in the games, with Link being a slower juggernaut with an arsenal of impressive weapons and heavy hitting sword attacks (In theory) with Toon Link being more of a skirmishing harasser that has impressive mobility and decent combos with only the occasional really devastating attack.
At the end of the day I really like your roster, despite the above. If it were to be the final roster in game I'd be more or less content, barring a lack of FE Awakening rep and retro.