I have this odd problem that I think I've known about for awhile, but only kinda understood recently: there's a lot of "wishful thinking" in my play, or me covering what I want my opponent to do when choosing my plays, instead of what they're really doing. It's like, "okay I've discouraged option X so now I can use option Y when this situation comes up again, because they'll use option Z now" and then they either end up using the same option again, or an entirely different one that doesn't follow the "mixup triangle" I envisioned.
I think this comes from not reacting to my opponents' cues/the options that precede what I want to cover, and blindly hoping my conditioning has the effect I imagined it would in theory. To fix this I think I have to build points that I habitually check my opponent's actions into my option sequences like you've talked about, but there are so many cues and so many positions it's overwhelming. I have beginner ideas I've implemented for awhile, like noting how an opponent responds to dash/WD in from TR, noting that Peach WDing back/running away means she probably wants to pull a turnip, etc., but I'm wondering if you could offer some guidance on starting to deeply build this into my play, because I think it's something I should be doing in every Neutral game position except maybe some really close in-fighting situations where options don't occur in sequences.
Atm I think the only points of reaction I consistently use are long dash in and WD back, which are really good, but only usable so often. I also don't believe I have particularly strong associations when it comes to opponents' sequences (like the example of Peach moving away > turnip pull - I'd struggle to come up with too many more examples), so I don't think I even use these tools to the fullest.
How do you build reactions into your sequences (especially positions where you might not use a lot of movement such as corner)? Do you think you can react out of any tool, but maybe some tools are just better to react out of than others (such as ones that have a stronger effect on the opponent like long dash in)? How many associations do you make between a character's options rather than a player's (how many preconceptions about movement X resulting in attack Y do you generally have before a match starts)? For situations you don't have associations going in, how do you keep track of all the data an opponent is giving you in the midst of match? Do you take it all in consciously?
Ultimately, is it accurate for me to think this ability I'm trying to understand is "reacting to what my opponent does before they do it"? (It seems to me when both players have this ability is when mixing signals becomes very strong.)