Hey
Dr Peepee
, I was watching some sets of you playing marth vs falcon and was wondering if you could provide some input on the netural when both characters are on the ground. I came to some conclusions but feel I might not be getting the whole picture. (Before anything else, wishing you well and gl at the five gods tourney. I love your marth. :D)
After watching you vs s2j at apex 2015 (
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f8yKWtB2nOg) and vs m2k (
https://youtu.be/QS7xsuVbAwQ?t=4m46s), I realized the thing is that on stages like yoshi's battlefield and fod, both marth's and falcon's effective threat zones are so large that together they basically comprise the whole stage, so that most of the time the characters are not at true neutral but more of a tense, close combat neutral (either marth or falcon has a slight advantage).
I think larger stages add some 'depth' to the matchup by allowing for true neutral, in which to simplify, dd camping seems to be the optimal strategy as any non-negligible commitment by the opponent into the other's zone can be punished. (With that said, dd grab camping seems to happen on smaller stages only less and less effectively with less stage.) And of course, this is countered by simply running your opponent to the ledge and hitting them, but before that happens usually players will opt to keep their positional advantages and go in for some mix-up which leads to...
Close combat neutral where either player seeks to hit the other player for advantage: to simplify, on the one hand, marth can approach with dtilt, which is everything else being equal marth's safest ground approach and generally leads to advantageous situations for marth against any grounded falcon even if hit on shield. Assuming the players start to adapt, falcon can start reading the dtilt approaches and counter with sh or fj aerials. But once the falcon has been so conditioned, Marth can counter falcon's sh aerials (e.g. falcon's nairs) with his own nairs and can counter fj aerials by run up crouching into dd grab. But once the marth has been so conditioned, falcon can counter marth's aerials or run up crouch with side-b or dd grab. But when the marth realizes the falcon is staying on the ground and swaps back to dtilt approaches, we are back at the first step. So the mix-up in close combat neutral for marth seems to come down to this: if i believe the falcon will stay to the ground, I should dtilt, but if i believe the falcon will take to the air, i should sh nair or run up crouch accordingly.
As for dealing with falcon's aerial approaches, I think there is opportunity for marth to utilize side-b to stuff nair approaches but the reward with side-b seems to be very inconsistent while payoff with nair is so much higher (if you're going to commit yourself to about the same amount of lag why not go for the move with more frames and more payoff). Is this, for example, why I don't see you use it as a neutral mix-up much ever except at the end of a match vs m2k? e.g.
https://youtu.be/QS7xsuVbAwQ?t=7m42s Marth also seems to have some exploitable cc grab options on falcon's aerials but these seem inconsistent/situational (e.g. what if falcon nairs or knees) as well, and I don't see you doing this too much.
What are your thoughts on the neutral mix-up? I feel I'm simplifying things and that the neutral is much more complex with each player using different approaching timings, visual cues, and microspacings trying to read into the other person's choices (e.g. if my opponent is trying to beat my dtilt approaches with ground counterattacks like grab straight up, i can give them another thing to worry about by running up wd back wd forward dtilt to cover their ground counter while run forward wd back dd grab or pivot fair/nair might be used for someone who is trying to beat your dtilt approaches with sh aerials. i been thinking hard about why dtilt is so good and i think it's because between simply running forward dtilt and run forward wd back wd forward dtilt there seems to be enough mix-up variance in just these two combined with the fact that dtilt is so low lag and hard to punish that the opponent if they try to solely punish dtilt approaches on the ground they just won't be able to, so that the opponent is almost forced into the air to try to read them and once the opponent is in the air marth can capitalize on how they react and their jump commitments).
tl;dr what to do in falcon neutral, thoughts on dtilt mix-up variance and what to do once you see how opponent responds/leaves ground
Anyone else have thoughts?
Also, to anyone, I can't seem to find the answer to this anywhere but in which order do these hit lower than each other dtilt, fsmash, (sh) shield breaker, fair e.g. edgeguarding a fox below the stage trying to sweetspot up-b?