How often do you check the Dojo? Every day? Once a week? 2am on the dot? Well, if you’re looking to fill the time between <a href="http://www.smashbros.com/en_us/items/item09.html">Spicy Curry</a> and <a href="http://www.smashbros.com/en_us/items/assist/assist06.html">Andross</a>, you can pick out a trove of information with good, old-fashioned number crunching. We already have all the information we need to predict the final roster size, especially if we bring in Sakurai’s own comments.
First, the basics:
<ul>
<li>Super Smash Bros. 64 has 12 characters</li>
<li>Super Smash Bros. Melee has 26 characters</li>
</ul>
The character roster grew by 117% between the games. If Brawl follows the same trend, it will have around 56 characters. However, according to <a href="http://smashboards.com/blog/2006/06/23/what-sakurai-didnt-want-you-to-find-out/">statements made by Sakurai much earlier in the game’s production</a>, each additional character requires tremendous work. Programming, art direction, and balance are just a few factors. Old school readers might recall this being the reason Ganondorf is inexplicably a Captain Falcon clone. <strong>Judging by Melee and Sakurai himself, 117% growth is unrealistic, and we can pin Brawl’s limit at 40 characters, with low-to-mid 30’s much more likely.</strong>
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Now, on to the currently known Brawl statistics. As of right now:
<ul>
<li>There are 21 confirmed characters (counting each of the three Pokemon as their own character)</li>
<li>There are 14 weeks left until Brawl’s official release</li>
<li>Recently, the Dojo has given us roughly one new character update each week</li>
</ul>
From that, we can assume a ballpark estimate of 12 new character announcements coming our way (including Metaknight and Snake, who have yet to be formally announced) for a total of 33 announced characters. Looking at the actual lineup, we currently have 11 returning characters and 8 new characters. For the sake of secrecy about unlockables, I am assuming that Sakurai will be more likely to post more returning characters than new characters, at least to the point where all returning characters are known. Thus, the cap on the number of returning characters is around 23, <strong>meaning at least 3 characters from Melee will get the axe.</strong> For the sake of continuity, I am going to assume that the original 12 characters from Super Smash Bros. 64 will all be returning. This leaves Jigglypuff, Luigi, Ness (possibly replaced by Lucas), and Captain Falcon due in coming updates. The number of other new/returning characters falls to 8.
Now, looking at the cast of Melee, the remainder of unannounced characters can be separated into two categories: Originals and Clones. By my count, there are 5 Originals unaccounted for, and 6 Clones. From the Clones, Ganondorf and Falco appear to be the two that would be easiest to create a unique moveset for. This is not saying that they all don’t have a shot, but from actual physical differences and available models (different character models throughout the series, i.e. Ocarina of Time Ganondorf as compared to Wind Waker Ganondorf), they are the most likely to receive a unique moveset, and thus increase the chances of returning. On the Originals side, this is true for all of them, as they are unique to begin with. Taking my Clones argument as more likely than not, that leaves a maximum of 7 of the last 8 updates as returning characters. <a href="http://smashboards.com/blog/2006/05/22/pichu-fans-of-the-world/">Pichu, your days are numbered.</a>
Returning to what we currently know of Brawl, Sakurai commented that there would only be “One to two” more 3rd Party characters in Brawl, besides Snake. Obviously, things may have changed since then, but due to the difficulty of acquiring licenses, I would say that the number does not surpass 3, and could even be 0. I will stick to his original statement however, and place a maximum of 2 other 3rd Party characters. There’s no way of predicting whether or not they will be revealed in Sakurai’s blog, however, as they are the most likely to be included as unlockables. Remember, not even Snake has been officially announced yet. Where is he hiding?
In regards to unlockables, SSB64 featured four unlockable characters, making up a third of the roster. SSBM featured 15 characters playable at start, nearly doubling that of SSB64, and 11 unlockable characters (42% of the total cast). If the characters at start increase linearly between SSBM and Brawl, <strong>we can anticipate 21 characters to start, and between 11 and 15 unlockable characters,</strong> for a grand total in the range of 32 and 36. This further supports Sakurai’s earlier comments. But looking at the currently announced list of characters, we already have 21 characters. If my conjecture holds true, that would mean Sakurai has already announced some of the unlockable characters, or will do so very shortly.
Finally, to summarize everything determined above:
<ul>
<li>Brawl will probably have between 32 and 36 characters, with the upper limit being 40</li>
<li>There will be between 11 and 15 unlockable characters</li>
<li>There are likely 14 character updates to come, 12 of which will be new</li>
<li>Other than the “Original 12″, there will likely be no more than 7 additional unannounced characters returning from Melee</li>
<li>If the rate of character updates does not slow/stop, we will be getting information on unlockable characters</li>
</ul>
Do take these with a grain of salt, but remember that there is more to glean from the Dojo’s posts than confirmations and screenshots. Happy crunching!
<em>Omnigamer is a respected tournament host and SWF Moderator, has worked with MLG in the past, and enjoys looking into the “invisible” technical parts of smash, often with devices such as Action Replay.</em>
First, the basics:
<ul>
<li>Super Smash Bros. 64 has 12 characters</li>
<li>Super Smash Bros. Melee has 26 characters</li>
</ul>
The character roster grew by 117% between the games. If Brawl follows the same trend, it will have around 56 characters. However, according to <a href="http://smashboards.com/blog/2006/06/23/what-sakurai-didnt-want-you-to-find-out/">statements made by Sakurai much earlier in the game’s production</a>, each additional character requires tremendous work. Programming, art direction, and balance are just a few factors. Old school readers might recall this being the reason Ganondorf is inexplicably a Captain Falcon clone. <strong>Judging by Melee and Sakurai himself, 117% growth is unrealistic, and we can pin Brawl’s limit at 40 characters, with low-to-mid 30’s much more likely.</strong>
<!--more-->
Now, on to the currently known Brawl statistics. As of right now:
<ul>
<li>There are 21 confirmed characters (counting each of the three Pokemon as their own character)</li>
<li>There are 14 weeks left until Brawl’s official release</li>
<li>Recently, the Dojo has given us roughly one new character update each week</li>
</ul>
From that, we can assume a ballpark estimate of 12 new character announcements coming our way (including Metaknight and Snake, who have yet to be formally announced) for a total of 33 announced characters. Looking at the actual lineup, we currently have 11 returning characters and 8 new characters. For the sake of secrecy about unlockables, I am assuming that Sakurai will be more likely to post more returning characters than new characters, at least to the point where all returning characters are known. Thus, the cap on the number of returning characters is around 23, <strong>meaning at least 3 characters from Melee will get the axe.</strong> For the sake of continuity, I am going to assume that the original 12 characters from Super Smash Bros. 64 will all be returning. This leaves Jigglypuff, Luigi, Ness (possibly replaced by Lucas), and Captain Falcon due in coming updates. The number of other new/returning characters falls to 8.
Now, looking at the cast of Melee, the remainder of unannounced characters can be separated into two categories: Originals and Clones. By my count, there are 5 Originals unaccounted for, and 6 Clones. From the Clones, Ganondorf and Falco appear to be the two that would be easiest to create a unique moveset for. This is not saying that they all don’t have a shot, but from actual physical differences and available models (different character models throughout the series, i.e. Ocarina of Time Ganondorf as compared to Wind Waker Ganondorf), they are the most likely to receive a unique moveset, and thus increase the chances of returning. On the Originals side, this is true for all of them, as they are unique to begin with. Taking my Clones argument as more likely than not, that leaves a maximum of 7 of the last 8 updates as returning characters. <a href="http://smashboards.com/blog/2006/05/22/pichu-fans-of-the-world/">Pichu, your days are numbered.</a>
Returning to what we currently know of Brawl, Sakurai commented that there would only be “One to two” more 3rd Party characters in Brawl, besides Snake. Obviously, things may have changed since then, but due to the difficulty of acquiring licenses, I would say that the number does not surpass 3, and could even be 0. I will stick to his original statement however, and place a maximum of 2 other 3rd Party characters. There’s no way of predicting whether or not they will be revealed in Sakurai’s blog, however, as they are the most likely to be included as unlockables. Remember, not even Snake has been officially announced yet. Where is he hiding?
In regards to unlockables, SSB64 featured four unlockable characters, making up a third of the roster. SSBM featured 15 characters playable at start, nearly doubling that of SSB64, and 11 unlockable characters (42% of the total cast). If the characters at start increase linearly between SSBM and Brawl, <strong>we can anticipate 21 characters to start, and between 11 and 15 unlockable characters,</strong> for a grand total in the range of 32 and 36. This further supports Sakurai’s earlier comments. But looking at the currently announced list of characters, we already have 21 characters. If my conjecture holds true, that would mean Sakurai has already announced some of the unlockable characters, or will do so very shortly.
Finally, to summarize everything determined above:
<ul>
<li>Brawl will probably have between 32 and 36 characters, with the upper limit being 40</li>
<li>There will be between 11 and 15 unlockable characters</li>
<li>There are likely 14 character updates to come, 12 of which will be new</li>
<li>Other than the “Original 12″, there will likely be no more than 7 additional unannounced characters returning from Melee</li>
<li>If the rate of character updates does not slow/stop, we will be getting information on unlockable characters</li>
</ul>
Do take these with a grain of salt, but remember that there is more to glean from the Dojo’s posts than confirmations and screenshots. Happy crunching!
<em>Omnigamer is a respected tournament host and SWF Moderator, has worked with MLG in the past, and enjoys looking into the “invisible” technical parts of smash, often with devices such as Action Replay.</em>
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