BiM 2013 | Game Over!

[#HBC | Joker]

The biggest thing that makes me hesitate about scumryu is that I don't think this kind of elaborate hoax is his style. As far as I know, Ryu has never done such a thing as scum or otherwise.

If Ryu is scum, we need to consider who his buddies might be. Who'd cook up a plan like this?

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

I'm not 100%, but I'm giving it serious consideration.

Dunno who the goon is. Could still be kantrip.

If not Ryu, your other scumread is?

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Town right now.
5 VT
2 Cop
2 Bomb

Mafia
1 Assassin
1 Goon

~

Town misshoots hitting a bomb nuking a VT or a Cop, chances 5/7 hitting a VT, 2/7 hitting cop. 2/5 in the VTs to hit one on CD.

If it hits a cop problem averted.

Day 3,

3 VT
2 Cop
1 Bomb


or

4 VT
1 Cop
1 Bomb

or

3 VT
2 Cop
2 Bomb

or

4 VT
1 Cop
2 Bomb

vs

1 Assassin
1 Goon

we have 3/4 VTs assuming it hits a VT at night and one died during the day. Max 2 are on CD, minimum 1 if mafia is smart with NKs. Assassin quick shoots VT not on CD, goes to N2, mafia hits a VT.

Day 4

1 VT
2 Cop
2 Bomb

or

1 VT
2 Cop
1 Bomb

or

2 VT
1 Cop
2 Bomb

vs

1 Assassin
1 Goon

These are all the possible situations that can happen if we do not shoot scum today, or the day after. The CD situation Kantrip pointed out only worked if scum knows who all of our VTs are and we do not have me stack all the CDs on.

That is what I am saying, we must QS on Day 3 if we miss on anything and a VT dies during the day.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

PJB god damn read what I post, it's blatantly obvious you are only reading the, "we need to shoot the cop" from what I am saying.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

This post had the most sense I've read out of all the stuff you guys posted last night. You should've slept like me. If they don't kill cops, the likelyhood goes up that they will be caught.

Say we mass claim now and we get no cop CCs:
2 cops clear
Rake clear? (On phone, can't remember)
X townie clear (assuming zen wasn't copped)

They don't kill cops?
2 cops clear
Rake and/or X clear
Y and/or Z clear

That's 4-6 clears depending on who gets killed out of the copped folks. That's apprx. Half the player list. That's a heck of a lot of info.

I would be in favor of this if we are not shooting a Cop.

Because people don't understand we have to QS tomarrow if we shoot wrong.

 

[#HBC | Joker]

I see your numbers, and I understand what they mean. I'm not convinced of them being the end all be all of our existence. You're assuming the scumteam will be ok with leaving cops alive just to shoot our VTs. I disagree, especially since they dunno who the VTs are. They could always still hit our other cop, or one of the bombs. Let them kill the cops. I'm sure as hell not gonna do it for them.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

Who are you going to shoot toDay, Ryu?

 

[ranmaru]

I see your numbers, and I understand what they mean. I'm not convinced of them being the end all be all of our existence. You're assuming the scumteam will be ok with leaving cops alive just to shoot our VTs. I disagree, especially since they dunno who the VTs are. They could always still hit our other cop, or one of the bombs. Let them kill the cops. I'm sure as hell not gonna do it for them.

Whatever gets them a quicker mylo/lylo.

You said we have to shoot scum. Yeah, but we have to make sure we have enough GUNS to do so. But I agree I'd rather keep our cops if possible.

There isn't really an optimal strategy for BiM without really mapping out the numbers.

 

[ranmaru]

Dude I still haven't read. Not backing out of anything, I never had any good reads

When are you going to read?

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

I see your numbers, and I understand what they mean. I'm not convinced of them being the end all be all of our existence. You're assuming the scumteam will be ok with leaving cops alive just to shoot our VTs. I disagree, especially since they dunno who the VTs are. They could always still hit our other cop, or one of the bombs. Let them kill the cops. I'm sure as hell not gonna do it for them.

You understand us not having enough VTs makes it GG for us yes?

If they hit the cops I do not care, what I care about is us getting in the thread and posting before the assassin does with cop results if that is the case.

Which I have no faith we can do this with VTs on CD and people who can't shoot. If we hit 3VTs tomarrow with two on CD, scum can quick any VT and end it by killing the other at night if we do not hit them first.

Scum will leave the cops alone if they know they can win on a QS when town needs to get results for those cops to matter. Us not hitting the Assassin today or tomarrow loses it for us.

~

Still looking to shoot Kantrip over anyone else right now.

Nabe I want your reads. Who do you want shot still and who do you not want shot?

 

[#HBC | Joker]

If not Ryu, your other scumread is?

...Kantrip. Are you reading?

 

[#HBC | Joker]

You understand us not having enough VTs makes it GG for us yes?

If they hit the cops I do not care, what I care about is us getting in the thread and posting before the assassin does with cop results if that is the case.

Which I have no faith we can do this with VTs on CD and people who can't shoot. If we hit 3VTs tomarrow with two on CD, scum can quick any VT and end it by killing the other at night if we do not hit them first.

Scum will leave the cops alone if they know they can win on a QS when town needs to get results for those cops to matter. Us not hitting the Assassin today or tomarrow loses it for us.

~

Still looking to shoot Kantrip over anyone else right now.

Nabe I want your reads. Who do you want shot still and who do you not want shot?

You're aware that the scumteam doesn't know who the VTs are either, right? We're not autoscrewed if we happen to misshoot.

 

[ranmaru]

Yeah I still want to shoot Kantrip. WHEN THE **** WILL HE READ. CMON`

 

[ranmaru]

Also I'm not for massclaiming today I think we STILL need our cops

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

You're aware that the scumteam doesn't know who the VTs are either, right? We're not autoscrewed if we happen to misshoot.

At least 3 are in the open, then they need to find the last two, if 4 are in the open we are auto screwed.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Yeah I still want to shoot Kantrip. WHEN THE **** WILL HE READ. CMON`

^This so much.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

What do you plan to do if we missshoot today PJB, and we go into tomarrow with 3 VTs at the start?

Then what?

 

[Handorin]

What if I'm bluffing though? /wifom

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Oh snap.

Some needs to shoot Kantrip though, that much I want to happen if we do decide to ignore the math I put forward. Then we need to make a plan on a misshoot.

 

[ranmaru]

Mass-claim on misshoot?

(By saying "I can shoot" or "I can't shoot)

OR

Hypoclaim. Basically we decide for someone to be copped and everyone say "Not guilty" and if EVERYONE says not guilty, that means even the cop had a not guilty.

Thoughts Ryu?

 

[#HBC | BadWolf]

At least 3 are in the open, then they need to find the last two, if 4 are in the open we are auto screwed.

What? 3? There are only 2 of us who are confirmed. Only me with confirmed role.

 

[Shun Goku Satsu Rake]

I'll give Kantrip approx 35 minutes to finish reading and address me, if he hasn't I'll shoot him, Ryu is off CD and it'll only be me on CD. This minimizes danger of multiple CD's

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

I'd rather have the Hypoclaim happen, and approve. I also approve of directing the cop in this situation, or rather cops in this case.

I do not want a "I can shoot" thing to happen.

 

[#HBC | BadWolf]

Tell me before you shoot him....

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

What? 3? There are only 2 of us who are confirmed. Only me with confirmed role.

I said potential 4

 

[#HBC | BadWolf]

RR is making my brain hurt.

 

[#HBC | BadWolf]

I said potential 4

But again, who are the other 2? Right now it's only Rake and I....

/confused

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

3 technically because 4 people have claimed/proven they can shoot.

Me and Rake are proven/cleared.

Hando and Kantrip claim they can shoot.

That is why I said 4, assuming they are not lying.

 

[ranmaru]

I'd rather have the Hypoclaim happen, and approve. I also approve of directing the cop in this situation, or rather cops in this case.

I do not want a "I can shoot" thing to happen.

Ok. So if we shoot Kantrip, we can have the cop look into Nabe. Or is there anyone you really want copped?

Gotcha.

 

[Handorin]

But again, who are the other 2? Right now it's only Rake and I....

/confused

He's assuming rake and I can shoot. And town.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Frozenflame/Nabe/BSL

should be the cop picks.

 

[ranmaru]

I think a Hypoclaim only works if we know who the cop was going to cop before hand.

 

[Handorin]

And two are bombs. So that means...

 

[Shun Goku Satsu Rake]

I think good cop choices would be Nabe/PJB.

Alright choices could be Hando / BSL /Orbo.

Thoughts ?

 

[#HBC | BadWolf]

3 technically because 4 people have claimed/proven they can shoot.

Me and Rake are proven/cleared.

Hando and Kantrip claim they can shoot.

That is why I said 4, assuming they are not lying.

You've proven you have a gun, nothing else and I don't care that K or Hando claim to have them. Only strong proofs.

 

[Handorin]

Ignore that I misunderstood rr post

 

[ranmaru]

No on PJB/Orbo. Both are fine to me.

 

[Shun Goku Satsu Rake]

And yes BW i will tell you.

You might be dying so it's kinda meh for you to tell us who you intend to cop but it can't hurt

 

[ranmaru]

Better he doesn't tell us in case he does live. Him telling us may taint the results. "Oh he died because of him saying he was going to investigate so and so"

 

[#HBC | BadWolf]

And yes BW i will tell you.

You might be dying so it's kinda meh for you to tell us who you intend to cop but it can't hurt

I'm 90% sure that I'm dying tonight, but if by some act of god I survive I'll tell you toMorrow.