Basic Mafia

[Xatres]

I don't know why we're discussing anyone being scum at this point besides Ro Laren.

I will make a try-hard post in the next day or two with my analysis. Until then:

Vote: Ro Laren

 

[#HBC | J]

I may be the only one here, but why is Ro scum with Ran? I don't really see it, espescially since Ro was the frist one to hop onto Ran and also the one to build that case against him which changed my vote from Adumb to Ranmaru. (compounding with Adumb's reactions to almost being lynched)

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

view who as scum?

Kary

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Ok, Ran/Ro interaction looks really weird and distancey on retrospect. Well looked weird before, but with a scumflip from ran I'm getting a distancing vibe.

Random marshy jump on by ran right after Kary, makes me decently confident of marshy town.

J and xatres interaction with my wagon makes pretty confident in them being townie.

It seems wierd from the ran side not the Ro side.

Ro looks genuine, not so much Ran which is why I wanted him dead

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

I'm open to Ro being scum but I really don't see it with those interactions

 

[Vinylic.]

My stance is still bare bones, so I can't explain why. If lynching someone other than ran was a main priority, I still wouldn't have voted until I was certain. All I asked were questions and I ended up with answers with no reason to follow up on. Obviously I need to do better than that.

 

[Maven89]

Moving the deadline back a day (next Thursday, 6/8) so you'll get a full week

Ro Laren has been prodded

 

[Ro Laren]

*rubs chin thoughtfully* why Kary? Marshy feels like a town bro so I'd have expected them to go after him tonight and kary was being her usual frustrating and null self.

I need to check her interactions.

I think most players saw Kary as townie.

Moving the deadline back a day (next Thursday, 6/8) so you'll get a full week

Ro Laren has been prodded

What, why?

#HBC | J

1. What is your read of Xatres? Is he on your radar at all?
2. Was my Adumbrodeus vote and your Ranmaru vote an X-post?
3. What questions did you have for Kary?

 

[#HBC | J]

#HBC | J

1. What is your read of Xatres? Is he on your radar at all?
2. Was my Adumbrodeus vote and your Ranmaru vote an X-post?
3. What questions did you have for Kary?

1.) My read of Xatres so far is lower than most of my reads. The reason I am saying this is because so far for 2 Day Phases now the only thing he has done of note is tunnel your slot for any reason it seems he can find. I do not agree with his logic against you saying that your slot makes sense for Ran's partner and find myself more agreeing with Ryu on the notion that it looked more like Ran trying to tie you as his partner in the case of his lynch. I would say Xatres is more on my radar than any other player because I want to see more from that slot that does not have to deal with you and actually looks more scum-hunting rather than sitting on one read.

Xatres : Can you talk with me about your other reads in the game that don't deal with Ro Laren? I want to play a game for a second where we consider you got your Ro lynch and they flip town. What's next? Who else could be Ran's partner?

2.) You're going to have to clarify this question, I don't understand what you mean by X-post. Do you mean cross post or?

3.) Mainly questions as to why Kary chose to vote for Adumb after I posted that I was more willing to lynch that slot yesterDay over Xatres and why it seemed like he made his opinion after that post. I also wanted to see what he thought about any possible connections to Ranmaru because he was also the first one to vote Marshy yesterDay for pressure purposes and I wanted to dive more into the "why?" of that.

 

[#HBC | J]

Currently my reads are moreso cut and dry with two people in each category

Ro Laren/Adumb - Town leans
Null - Ryu/Vinyl (probably would rank Ryu 3rd in my "townish" category)
Investigating - Xatres/Marshy

Since it's Day two and I feel vexed not having my vote on a slot I'm going to put one down and continue forward in this direction for day start purposes.

Vote: Xatres

 

[Xatres]

My try-hard post will include an examination of all possible scumteams. Expect it in the next 24 hours.

 

[#HBC | J]

I'll be holding ya to that then.

 

[#HBC | marshy]

Kary

idk

for a long time kary was the only one doing anything in this game. only played with him as scum once but was markedly different here. cant believe ppl are surprised by the kill

why do you ask?

ran made a post earlier with a full reads list that might be useful to look at. i might be able to look later but atm dont think ros a play. props to ro if he bussed ran tho cuz from memory he started that push

(off topic. i have been procrastinating on homework hardbody for the past 2 days. dont you hate that feeling of homework lingering over your head?)

 

[#HBC | J]

(off topic. i have been procrastinating on homework hardbody for the past 2 days. dont you hate that feeling of homework lingering over your head?)

I feel that so hard.

I'll go grab the Ranmaru reads list post since I remember looking at it, but not really seeing anything fruitful.

 

[Ro Laren]

Ya cross post. Did you see my vote when you made your post or did we post them at the same time?

 

[#HBC | J]

When I made my vote post I thought I had pressed submit and then I went into a game of league. However, I did not refresh before hitting the submit button again after I got out and did not want anything to taint my decision to vote Ran. I would say it's more likely we posted around about the same time.

To clarify, I did not see your vote before I posted mine.

 

[#HBC | J]

Here's Ran's read's post from pg. 7 for viewing pleasure and easier access.

Ro Laren:

I don’t see a real direction with her, she is being a bit passive. I find her looking at my slot when asked about it concerning. I can understand that she may be confused how to play here, but I want to see her reads and a vote. Null, need more from her.

Xatres:

I think Xatres is townie for bringing out a case on Ro laren as soon as possible. I don’t think scum would bring that much confidence so soon and just sit on it. I want to know his thoughts on the rest of the cast though.

Red Ryu:

His entrance was underwhelming, but I liked his continued presence in the thread, trying to sort people. He’s lean town.

Kary:

Lean town. I like his questioning towards Ro Laren, and his initiative towards voting Marshy and being disappointed in the inactivity. I also like his questioning to J about his ‘weird’ stance on Ro Laren.

Vynil:

Null-town. He seems genuine, and is scumhunting in his own way. I can’t really get much from that, though. I want to know where he stands with the whole player list to have a better understanding.

Marshy:

Null. He has been pushing discussion along, but I'd expect him to have a vote down by now. I want to see more from him.

Adum:

Null. I would like to see a full reads list from him so I can develop a read from him.

J:

I initially had J as null in early game since he interacted with marshy but did nothing to progress the early game. I liked him asking others to chat, which was pro-active, and I agree with Kary that it is more likely to be null. I would probably give him town points if he gave his opinions first before doing so. So I still have J as null.

They are all null or town leans. I'm going to keep looking at this, but there is not a whole lot to go off of. Then again posts like this is are what led to his lynch because they were full of nothing and non-committal stances that went nowhere and he did not do much unless provoked.

 

[Ro Laren]

Vote: Xatres

None of my reasons from yesterday have changed. I'll be back later tonight.

 

[adumbrodeus]

It seems wierd from the ran side not the Ro side.

Ro looks genuine, not so much Ran which is why I wanted him dead

And? Scum out their partners all the time by treating them oddly. I've had it happen to me more then once.

The vacillation between "hey I'm calling out what I see as scummy in this slot" and "no I don't wanna lynch them because it could be just them being new".

It's not just that he was fake, it's that he was fake in a specific way towards that slot that suggests distancing and a lack of desire to lynch.

 

[adumbrodeus]

The only thing that really stands out about Ro's treatment of Ran's slot is willingness to go for a "let's lynch an unknown variable" lynch when they seemed really dead set on ran-scum and the choice of timing, right after xatres expressing dissatisfaction with my lynch and ranmaru was the obvious second choice is... odd.

 

[adumbrodeus]

Not in terms of raw votes at the time, I mean pretty much everyone had expressed dissatisfaction with the slot, so why try to push my wagon through then, and the context was both wagons at 2 before the vote change.

 

[adumbrodeus]

Ya this feel like the right move for today

Vote: Ro Laren

 

[Ro Laren]

The only thing that really stands out about Ro's treatment of Ran's slot is willingness to go for a "let's lynch an unknown variable" lynch when they seemed really dead set on ran-scum and the choice of timing, right after xatres expressing dissatisfaction with my lynch and ranmaru was the obvious second choice is... odd.

Not in terms of raw votes at the time, I mean pretty much everyone had expressed dissatisfaction with the slot, so why try to push my wagon through then, and the context was both wagons at 2 before the vote change.

Only Marshy and I were voting Ranmaru. I wanted to lynch Ranmaru, but I would've lynched you over not lynching at all. When I voted you, I thought it was 30 minutes before the deadline (I'm used to EST). I was waiting on you all up until that moment, but no one was posting. Kary's vote was locked on you, and J said before that he would vote you or Xatres. The only other player to express willingness to vote Ranmaru was Red Ryu. I asked J to consider Ranmaru, but it had been hours and didn't look like he was going to get back to me in time. Fortunately, J and Red Ryu came online right after I switched over. I'd ask that you look at the time stamps on the posts and reconsider your view. I was doing the best I could with an inactive player list and the knowledge I had at the time.

 

[#HBC | J]

Throwing this out there now:

Barring a super duper convincing case, I won't be voting Ro toDay. There's better slots to look into especially considering we still have anomoly slots floating around.

 

[adumbrodeus]

Only Marshy and I were voting Ranmaru. I wanted to lynch Ranmaru, but I would've lynched you over not lynching at all. When I voted you, I thought it was 30 minutes before the deadline (I'm used to EST). I was waiting on you all up until that moment, but no one was posting. Kary's vote was locked on you, and J said before that he would vote you or Xatres. The only other player to express willingness to vote Ranmaru was Red Ryu. I asked J to consider Ranmaru, but it had been hours and didn't look like he was going to get back to me in time. Fortunately, J and Red Ryu came online right after I switched over. I'd ask that you look at the time stamps on the posts and reconsider your view. I was doing the best I could with an inactive player list and the knowledge I had at the time.

Ya see, any lynch over no lynch is right (barring even town numbers or the only possible lynch is confirmed town) but.... that's kinda false dearie

Xatres just posted this and was active at the time:

Yeah, lynching Adum is not the play today. We have VERY little to learn from that flip.

Adum, don't just roll over and die. There's plenty of this game to be played.

I honestly think the lynch pool right now should be Ro Laren, Ran, or myself. I think there's plenty to learn from all of our flips.

Absolute opposition to my lynch and you hopped on when he was trying to smother momentum on my lynch instead of saying "hey, put your vote on ran then". And that would've made either lynch wagon 3/2.

 

[adumbrodeus]

Throwing this out there now:

Barring a super duper convincing case, I won't be voting Ro toDay. There's better slots to look into especially considering we still have anomoly slots floating around.

Like who, Xatres?

Ya, not with how that lynch played out. Not without me and Xat being a 3 man scumteam, his momentium smoothering attempts were too sincere and ran was in too vulnerable a spot.

 

[#HBC | J]

Not just Xatres haha.

We still have minimal content from Vinyl and also Red Ryu/Marshy to an extant. (Red Ryu has more content currently that is tangible, but still could use some more insight).

We spent most of yesterDay looking at Ro and then yesterDay was Ro vs. Ran and now toDay is Ro vs. The World and I am getting quite bored of the same points being rehashed when they are not that strong at all.

She literally was the one who spearheaded the Ranmaru lynch and yet she is being targetted as toDay's lynch? That just is backwards to me and I won't be following that line of thought. There is more analysis to be had then what is going on currently.

 

[adumbrodeus]

Not just Xatres haha.

We still have minimal content from Vinyl and also Red Ryu/Marshy to an extant. (Red Ryu has more content currently that is tangible, but still could use some more insight).

We spent most of yesterDay looking at Ro and then yesterDay was Ro vs. Ran and now toDay is Ro vs. The World and I am getting quite bored of the same points being rehashed when they are not that strong at all.

She literally was the one who spearheaded the Ranmaru lynch and yet she is being targetted as toDay's lynch? That just is backwards to me and I won't be following that line of thought. There is more analysis to be had then what is going on currently.

Uh, in what universe did Ro spearhead said lynch?

She backed off at the most critical time and only returned when it was basically inevitable.

YOU spearheaded the lynch.

 

[adumbrodeus]

Also these aren't the same points as last game day, this largely revolves around distancey behavior by a flipped scum and hesitance to pull the trigger on said flipped scum. These points didn't exist on Ro last game day, because Ran wasn't flipped then.

 

[#HBC | J]

Adumb, I want you to look at these posts I've brought up.

Vote: Ranmaru


I don't scum read any of them.

Ro was the first to start pressure to Ranmaru.

I'm not going to tell you my town reads. The only players that benefit are scum. It's enough for you to know who I think are scum, who I'm voting for, and who I'm willing to lynch.

My thought process for voting you:

A.

All of these posts are counter evidence to the reactive rather than proactive statement. I don't think you are looking at me objectively or trying to figure out my alignment. You are either scum or don't care enough to put the effort into figuring it out.

B. Your play is very dead-like. It has the shell of a townie, but the spirit is missing. Your questions and prodding are empty with no follow up. I don't feel at all like you really care about the responses you'll get. This stood out to me when you asked Red Ryu if his J vote was serious. There wasn't any reason to think it was serious. You never followed up with him when he said it was serious. What was the point of asking? You said you wanted to engage with him, but you haven't talked to him since.

C.


You're so sure about this, but there isn't any evidence to support it. Xatres's alignment can go either way based on this. It's Wine In Front of Me, but you're assinging it townie and refusing to see how it can be the opposite. This is another case that shows you aren't being objective or trying to figure out alignment. Instead you're making sure that your responses are consistent with your previous responses. I think this is to avoid looking like you've contradicted yourself.

Ro built the case on Ranmaru

J, what's your perspective on the points I made about Ranmaru?

Ro asked for my opinion on said case.

Honestly, they are pretty convincing and also with seeing Adumb's posts makes me feel they are sincere. I feel like Ran has been dodging more and just throwing more things out there then it actually seems.

Vote: Ranmaru

Yeah, this feels better. Sorry I'm late. Today literally drained me at work, but I feel Ranmaru would be better than Adumb because it just seems more likely that he'd flip town at this juncture.

I voted Ranmaru due to said case and also due to your reactions. I spearheaded nothing besides maybe the wagon snap of votes, but Ro gave a good explanation as to why she switched which was due to deadline timing which was very fair, then within an hour of me voting she hopped back on.

Please re-look into things with a bit more clarity and understanding of the timing and events that transgressed to Ranmaru's lynch.

 

[adumbrodeus]

We're talking about separate things, spearheading the lynch is creating the actual momentum that created the lynch.

Again this is based on two things.

1. Ran's play around Ro.

2. Ro's choking which throws doubt into an actual intention to lynch ran which the cases conveyed.

Again, if Xatres wasn't just active and actively opposing my lynch and agreeing with Ran's, it would've been the move I'd make. But he was and did.

I find it hard to believe they missed Xatres' post 4 posts up.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Currently my reads are moreso cut and dry with two people in each category

Ro Laren/Adumb - Town leans
Null - Ryu/Vinyl (probably would rank Ryu 3rd in my "townish" category)
Investigating - Xatres/Marshy

Since it's Day two and I feel vexed not having my vote on a slot I'm going to put one down and continue forward in this direction for day start purposes.

Vote: Xatres

I don't get this vote.

 

[Xatres]

So it turns out packing for vacation when you have a 2-month-old takes a lot longer than you'd think. My try-hard post will have to wait til we get settled in at the beach house tomorrow afternoon. Sorry, folks.

 

[#HBC | J]

I cry every time

(But I totes understand, oh god we are all adults here now)

 

[Ro Laren]

Ranmaru,

1. Why do you find me looking at your slot when asked concerning?
2. Why don't you think scum would sit on a single read?
3. What gives you the impression that Red Ryu is trying to sort people?
4. Do you have any more thoughts or concerns about Adum?

1. It shows you are being reactive rather than proactive, that is why.
2. Hard to fake all that as early as he did and to sit there would go against scum win condition.
3. He's currently conversing with Xatres to understand his perspective. #170, #178, #200
4. No.

1. Are there counter examples in my play that show me being proactive rather than reactive? Or do all of my posts look reactive?
2. You don't think sitting on a vote and not progressing the the game goes with scum's win condition?
3. What are the differences between Red Ryu's play and J's play? Your reasoning suggests that you should town lean J.

1. No.
2. No. That is simply anti-town. More likely to be town than scum doing that.
3. Meta.

I think that the Q&A in red looks really good for Red Ryu. What do you all think?

I was flat out wrong on marshy actually, I completely misunderstood the development of his thoughts. He deserves a town lean there actually.

Could you explain the misunderstanding? What did you think you disliked about Marshy? Why do you think he deserved a town lean after you relooked?

We're talking about separate things, spearheading the lynch is creating the actual momentum that created the lynch.

Again this is based on two things.

1. Ran's play around Ro.

2. Ro's choking which throws doubt into an actual intention to lynch ran which the cases conveyed.

Again, if Xatres wasn't just active and actively opposing my lynch and agreeing with Ran's, it would've been the move I'd make. But he was and did.

I find it hard to believe they missed Xatres' post 4 posts up.

I'm sorry I voted you. I think I can see what you mean when I look back. Do you think you can relook at my posts in isolation?

 

[Vinylic.]

I wanna wait for this wall of text to happen so that I can start discussing. I think things will start rolling from there.

 

[adumbrodeus]

I wanna wait for this wall of text to happen so that I can start discussing. I think things will start rolling from there.

There's plenty here and from last game day to discuss and you've done little. Terrible excuse.

Start with Ranmaru then, gimme analysis on his connections.

 

[adumbrodeus]

Ro, his response to lynch pressure seemed very sincere. That's my I put a town lean.

What I misunderstood was I think his 314, I read it as a "these people have less content then me, why aren't you wagoning them?" But rather he was expressing frustration at people scumreading him cause he didn't have much to work with and couldn't do a big push.

 

[adumbrodeus]

Ro, don't apologise, it's not a personal affront. I was a valid compromise lynch last game day, there's no hurt feelings to assuage and you didn't flame me.

I'm bringing it up because it throws doubts on your willingness to lynch ran, which is a massive scumtell given he spent last game day looking like he was distancing you or possibly setting up for a bus down the line now that he's flipped.

But I'll review you in ISO when I have a chance but this is largely not based on your behavior. It's based on Ran's.

 

[Xatres]

Okay folks, mega analysis incoming. I'll be posting my list of most likely scummates for Ranmaru, starting with the weakest and ending with the strongest. This will be spread out over a few posts, so bear with me.

(Also I apologize for any glaring typos - I'm running on very little sleep from the long drive to the beach)