Banjo-Kazooie Mafia: Grunty's Back! Game Over! Did Grunty win in the end?

[Kaladin]

Don't worry, we should have a decision soon.

Pretty much what I predict is that either I will get lynched, or rake will get lynched, which still works out perfectly for town within the confines of my game theory.

I'm just going to come out and explain why I'm sure rake is scum. (I really haven't analyzed day 2 posts, this is all review of day 1 posts.)

Consider what bardul did day 1 from the perspective that he is confirmed scum. His first action was 3 fold; apply pressure to rake, explain some mafia to moosey, then defend moosey from rake by saying he should be excused for being a newbie. At first glance, this would seem to point toward moosey being scum, but taking the next few actions takes into consideration this makes way more sense that rake is scum. So let's continue.

The next thing that happens is that gheb calls out bardul for applying pressure, and I follow suit. Bardul pivots his attention to me, and mitigates the attention on rake. At this point, everyone seems comfortable that Rake is lean town; thus he further detracts attention with his 221, simultaneously detracting from gheb's call out against bardul by asking others to ignore him and focusing more attention on me. This is further emphasized by his 223.

Irrelevant. Rake was not in lynch danger.

This to me says that gheb was on the right trail here. At this point, Orbo and Rake are the most suspicious if you consider that gheb's 141 is on target; gheb is right to question orbo's defence on rake, and barduls hate on rake. Scum applying unconfirmable pressure that can't be followed up puts rake in a good position here, because he would seem to be more clear once the pressure is alleviated.

This is actually a logically sound point. I can't refute it, I guess it was just reading too much into things ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

In his 339 he both defends bardul against gheb and me, and legitimizes bardul's attack on me. (which I still find to be BS, there was no correlation between me attacking bardul because I doubted rake but I digress). In his 340 he further elaborates by predicting that bardul would claim, even though bardul really has no reason to claim. This could be a sign that he knew that bardul was considering claiming based on scum chat, but this is still pretty shaky at this point.

This is pretty tin-foil hatty. This is plausible, but unlikely.

In rake's 344, he tries to shake gheb off of bardul's trail (gheb is the strongest/cleanest player against bardul at this point) by trying to his displace his attention to other players.

Confirmation bias. I would contend that he was simply raising another point.

Lastly, after bardul has been hammered, he predicts at this point that bardul is scum, and that I'm also scum. He puts no thought into what bardul's flip actually means, unlike maven's 463.

Or, perhaps, he did put thought into it and was wrong, kinda like you.

At the end of the day, he's either scum that bardul has constantly defended, or he's a town that I can't rely on to think like town. Honestly I'd say it's about 80 scum / 20 useless town at this point, totally a worthy candidate of tunnel lynching.

The real question is this, if I were town, isn't my play to call out bardul great? If I'm scum, how does anything I've posted make any sense? You gotta trust that while I'm not perfect (I ****ed up bardul's finish, I got held up by the fact the he might have failed at giving me a silent nod), I know how to play this game. Everything that I see with bardul being scum is to allow rake to fly under the radar, there's ALOT of attention from bardul into rake considering that he applies pressure once then pivots to defending him all game against gheb.

My thoughts in bold. I'll watch the thread, but I'm probably done for the night.

 

[RadicalRat]

Also, if you think Generic will flip Mafia Goon, catching a Mafia is better than nothing. Also, I doubt that tako is a role. There is no reason for him to have called so much attention to himself if he had an important Mafia role.

Arrogance. He thought he had eliminated any reason for doubt of his Towniness, and pardon the pun, went to Town with it.

Either way, your posts say he is past nullscum so I do not see why you would not vote for him…?

Tako scares me more. If this were an even night, I'd pick Generic to lynch no problem, and postpone Tako.

But tonight is the night Tako gets to be of use to those mafia scoundrels, and I don't want to give him that chance.

 

[RadicalRat]

http://smashboards.com/threads/mini-game-werewolves-win.414850/

The fabled "Last game"

 

[MoosyDoosy]

http://smashboards.com/threads/mini-game-werewolves-win.414850/

The fabled "Last game"

There is a rather clear difference between Generic in that game and the Generic in this game. In that game, he was willing to engage and share his thoughts more openly. Here it's been a pain to hear his thoughts and I've mostly had to call him out. He's definitely more noticeably lurkier here.

And if you think Generic is Mafia, then vote for him. It makes little sense for you not to do so and makes it seem like you're trying to devise a reason not to vote for Mafia. It doesn't matter if tako is Mafia or not because if he is, we catch him later anyway. xP It's cool if we manage to lynch an important Mafia role but lynching the Goon will give us just as much information on alignments as well.

 

[RadicalRat]

He's also been busier IRL this game though.

If you look in the earlier parts of this game, he was engaging conversation.


We do get other information from Generic's flip. But in my mind, eradicating a PowerRole from the Mafia takes priority over potential read-clarification.



TheKingofKoopas

You've got to have some opinions by now. I'd like to hear them.

 

[MoosyDoosy]

He's also been busier IRL this game though.

If you look in the earlier parts of this game, he was engaging conversation.

We do get other information from Generic's flip. But in my mind, eradicating a PowerRole from the Mafia takes priority over potential read-clarification.

TheKingofKoopas

You've got to have some opinions by now. I'd like to hear them.

But how would you know if someone was Mafia and had a power role? The best we can do is reason, and reason states that sneakytako is likely blue and GenericHandle would be the one to have a Mafia power role if any.

I'll say it again, but sneakytako will likely resolve himself over time. Mafia can't let him live too long if he's actually blue as he'll be free to use his role indefinitely. They'll likely fish for the Doctor first before going after him. And if he lives too long, we'll know something is strange and look over tako again. It's a balancing act but it's something that's solved over time. In the meantime, the best thing to do is hunt for the other Mafia. Also, there’s too much risk and too little reward for lynching tako right now. If he’s Mafia then it was a great risk, but if he’s blue we lose a power role AND a lynch opportunity AND we go closer to endgame.

Also, I doubt that tako actually does have a Mafia PR. There is no sane way he calls so much attention to himself that it seems super scummy. You can WIFOM that it’s so scummy that it’s possible but I don’t think somewhat experienced players would encourage and go for a play like that. Without any counterclaim, tako looks blue right now. And even if the blue is out there waiting, he’ll claim later on down the line and it’s not necessary to lynch tako immediately.

The person who would have a Mafia power role is someone lurking and staying quiet so as not to draw attention to themself. Generic fits this trait which makes it more likely that he’s the one with the power role than sneakytako anyway.

Overall, concerning ourselves about sneakytako right now is a waste of time when we can be focusing on catching Mafia. So if you think that Generic is Mafia then vote for him and help town.

 

[RadicalRat]

I maintain that arrogance adequately explains Sneaky drawing attention to himself.

But I'm out of points to make there.

If no one else is seeing the scum in Tako, I'll help lynch Generic.

But I would like to hear from the others first, so for now, I think I'm gonna call it a night.

 

[TheKingofKoopas]

Hey guys, I'm really sorry to say this, but I'm going to try to replace out of both games I'm in.
At the time I thought I could handle two games, but college has definitely proven that because you're free for one day does not mean you'll be free the next. I can't really handle one at the moment because of midterms.

 

[sneakytako]

I maintain that arrogance adequately explains Sneaky drawing attention to himself.

But I'm out of points to make there.

If no one else is seeing the scum in Tako, I'll help lynch Generic.

But I would like to hear from the others first, so for now, I think I'm gonna call it a night.

How does drawing attention = scum?

Being able to consolidate everyone's attention is only possible because I had such a strong case of being town, just because my call eventually flipped scum, my case against rake was pretty solid. (STILL have yet to see a good defence of rake)

Both of you and generic logic revolve entirely around being butt hurt on how I played day 2. Like your case is literally 'We we're rudely promised rake flip, and now we didn't get what we want'.

 

[Maven89]

I re-read day 1. I'm going to take a break, but these are my notes, essentially. I also never realized just how much I was skimming the entire game, because the Rake lynch was really dumb.

1. I find the early Moosy/Rat stuff to come off TvT
2. Orbo spends time defending Rat/Rake, but when Gheb asks him to address Moosy and Bard, Orbo just talks about Moosy

because i don't want them to start trying to push stuff thats not scummy.
I care less about his moosey, dislike how hes getting on rakenfor things people should know are rake null tells hy now. Not a huge thing yet cuz early, but its noted

Generic seemed interested in other people's reads on Orbo

It is inherently bad because Rake could be mafia. If Mafia has thread control, Mafia wins.

@Shun Goku Satsu Rake I'll ask again. Read on Orbo?

Generic defends Bard when Gheb tells people to start voting for him

Or really bad mafia. Are there any other inexperienced players?

Gheb, I don't like your rush to attack Bardul and get him lynched so quickly. It'd be fine if we were closer to the deadline, but we're not. Let the Day play out -- unless you're afraid of something being revealed with time?

yet then gives this as his scum reads

Moosy is wildly swinging at anything that moves. This could be interpreted positively or negatively. Slight town lean, but that could change.

Gheb seems desperate to cut the Day short... Slight scum lean.

Rake is janky. Null.

Bardull... I don't see the scum, but I don't see the town, either. Null.

Zaixl puts out solid town content. Town.

Anyone want to hear my thoughts on another given player?

Then he likes Zaixl saying we shouldn't vote Bard

Then he agres with Zaixl saying we should lynch Gheb, but goes out of his way to point out that Gheb being town wouldn't mean Bard was scum

I'd be open to that, but Gheb being town would not automatically make Bard scum. It'd be a strike against him that warrants investigation, but a town gheb could be, y'know, wrong. But otherwise I'd be alright with this.

Unvote. Vote: Gheb_01

When asked why he did that, he quotes Zaixl's post, and then when Zaixl is explaining why Gheb should be lynched first, Generic quotes it and goes "I agree" again, saying he finds Gheb more scummy then Bard.

But then, he even begins to set up a way to defend Bard from Gheb's flip

I had considered this. If Zax (Zax is easy to type on mobile. Ima call him Zax.) exhibits some sort of scummy behavior AND gheb flips town, he'd be higher on my lynch list than Bardul.

When Bard finally makes his post, he immediatly tries to defer to everyone else

...Not entirely sure I buy that. What does everyone else think?

Also Moosy starts tunneling Zaixl pretty hard at this point, but I don't read it as scummy.

Then of course Bard/Sneaky both claim, and now Generic goes all out against Sneaky in defense of Bard.

Then after the lynch, he likes this post

-shrugs-
I may be getting a bit too focused on Zaixl, but I don’t find it strange.

It could be him forcing mislynches on two townies or it could be him forcing the mislynch on Gheb first to try and find a way to clear BarD.

So, based on the end of reading day 1, my current idea for scum team is GenericHandle/Orboknown.

I'll go re-read day 2 and read what people have said this day soon

 

[RadicalRat]

How does drawing attention = scum?

Being able to consolidate everyone's attention is only possible because I had such a strong case of being town, just because my call eventually flipped scum, my case against rake was pretty solid. (STILL have yet to see a good defence of rake)

Both of you and generic logic revolve entirely around being butt hurt on how I played day 2. Like your case is literally 'We we're rudely promised rake flip, and now we didn't get what we want'.

I never once said drawing attention makes you scum. All I said was that it doesn't clear you.

 

[#HBC | J]

Looking for a replacement for TheKingofKoopas. If no replacement is found by end of day, the slot will be mod-killed. That is all.

 

[Kaladin]

So I have to write a five page brief on why an article I immigration court should not be established, even though it very clearly should. http://nieman.harvard.edu/wp-conten...13/resources/Urgent Priority FINAL 1-1-08.pdf

...im gonna dip for a bit.

 

[Maven89]

You have the hardest middle school I've ever heard of

 

[Orboknown]

I re-read day 1. I'm going to take a break, but these are my notes, essentially. I also never realized just how much I was skimming the entire game, because the Rake lynch was really dumb.

1. I find the early Moosy/Rat stuff to come off TvT
2. Orbo spends time defending Rat/Rake, but when Gheb asks him to address Moosy and Bard, Orbo just talks about Moosy



Generic seemed interested in other people's reads on Orbo



Generic defends Bard when Gheb tells people to start voting for him



yet then gives this as his scum reads



Then he likes Zaixl saying we shouldn't vote Bard

Then he agres with Zaixl saying we should lynch Gheb, but goes out of his way to point out that Gheb being town wouldn't mean Bard was scum





When asked why he did that, he quotes Zaixl's post, and then when Zaixl is explaining why Gheb should be lynched first, Generic quotes it and goes "I agree" again, saying he finds Gheb more scummy then Bard.

But then, he even begins to set up a way to defend Bard from Gheb's flip



When Bard finally makes his post, he immediatly tries to defer to everyone else



Also Moosy starts tunneling Zaixl pretty hard at this point, but I don't read it as scummy.

Then of course Bard/Sneaky both claim, and now Generic goes all out against Sneaky in defense of Bard.

Then after the lynch, he likes this post





So, based on the end of reading day 1, my current idea for scum team is GenericHandle/Orboknown.

I'll go re-read day 2 and read what people have said this day soon

That was about bards interactions with moosey/rake, not about moosey. Ghebs original question was about bardulls handling of those slots

 

[Kaladin]

You have the hardest middle school I've ever heard of

Homeschool speech&debate

 

[RadicalRat]

Alright, I'd like to raise a point here.

Koopa's been considered somewhat scummy by most of us here, right?

Now, he stands to be modkilled at the end of the Day.

Here's how I see it...

The Day will end with a lynch, one way or another.
At this point, Koopa will be modkilled.
Then, Mafia has their NK.

That's three deaths in one Day/Night cycle.

I'd like to avoid that, so in the interest of preserving game balance, and since he was already suspected of being scum... I'm calling for a lynch on Koopa.

Unvote
Vote: TheKingOfKoopas

In the event that a replacement joins, I'll rescind this vote until the new player starts acting scummy, but I do NOT want a triple death to happen.

 

[#HBC | J]

#HBC | Red Ryu replaces TheKingofKoopas effective immediately! Welcome him to the game and give thanks!

 

[RadicalRat]

Oh! Well, nevermind then.

Unvote
Vote: SneakyTako

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Hi give me a summary asap someone.

Also I rolled town, shame I wanted to be mafia.

 

[RadicalRat]

Hi give me a summary asap someone.

Day One: BarDulL was lynched, after claiming Tracker under pressure and being counter-claimed by SneakyTako. Flip: Mafia Goon
Night One: Gheb was killed. Flip: Town Even-night Watcher
Day Two: SneakyTako asserted himself to be confirmed town after Bard's flip, and then proceeded to use this as an excuse to withhold information while pushing for a Rake lynch. Eventually, he did post a reason for wanting Rake lynched, which held up reasonably well, and Rake was lynched. Flip: Town Vanilla
Night Two: Zaixl was killed. Flip: Town Vanilla
Day Three: Town seems mostly split between wanting to lynch GenericHandle and SneakyTako

 

[Orboknown]

Shup ruy i promise not to **** this one up

 

[MoosyDoosy]

Hi give me a summary asap someone.

Also I rolled town, shame I wanted to be mafia.

We are lynching Generic.

 

[Kaladin]

We are lynching Generic.

Speak for yourself.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

We are lynching Generic.

How small and not helpful.

 

[RadicalRat]

We are lynching Generic.

I still would rather lynch Tako for today.

I was open to switching to Generic, but... after Tako's pathetic excuse for defending himself( He picked the weakest of my arguments, and then his refutation only showed that he didn't even read my posts. )... I am afraid I must be unyielding on this.

 

[Maven89]

Finished reading day 2, sneakytako can you quote the Rake post where he said he knew Bardull was going to claim? Because i don't remember seeing that at all when I re-read

Other then that, not much. I like Orboknown much more based on day 2 and RadicalRat much less.

Getting into day 3 now

 

[Maven89]

The thing is moosey, I actually think Generic might not be scum.

Consider it this way.

If generic is scum, then there's only one scum left. The simplest play for scum here is to lynch either koopa or orbo; I think they have the weakest town plays, and would be easiest to create a case.

If generic is scum, he has to be confident that he can convince at least 3 more town that I'm scum, and I'm confident that there's not enough evidence to make this play.

Either way it's a bad play, town or scum.

If you accept that its' bad play either way, then you can't use the argument "it' would be bad play for scum" to say he's not scum.

Also, wow. When writing this sentence, I'm at the start of the Orbo/SneakTako debacle, and goddamnit Tako you really need to work on your tone. You got no reason to be so pompous when your whole point against Orbo is nothing other then "nothing to be town for". Nothing to be scum for either, is there?

But then he mellows out so it's all good

Not buying Generic's defense, RadicalRat seems to be in fullblown tunnel mode. I was reading him as scum until he said he wasn't looking for scum anymore "because he found them", which just sounds like a tunnel to me. I actually stopped reading his post when I saw that line, which is probably dumb, but I'm trying to finish up with the reading and didn't find value in reading the tunnel. Best hope is to see what the slot does later.

Orbo, do you seriously believe scum would bus in the most noticeable way possible with a claim, counter claim, and all the fanfare involved? That would just look worse lol.

But did it look worse?

I can see your point. I'm on mobile right now, but let me ask you something.

Your point against me is that I allegedly tried to prevent a Bard lynch. Wouldn't it follow, then, that a point for me is that I tried to prevent the Rake lynch? Rake defense will go up when I get to a physical keyboard.

Not really, because as scum you'd know that Rake was town, and therefore defending him would give you town points. More important is why you were reading him as town and planing to defend him.

Both of you and generic logic revolve entirely around being butt hurt on how I played day 2. Like your case is literally 'We we're rudely promised rake flip, and now we didn't get what we want'.

Their reactions are a direct result of your play, man.


LIst is as follows

Town

1. Moosy
2. SneakyTako

Null
3. RadicalRat
4. Orbo
5. Koopa/RedRyu

Scum

6. Generic


Town read is in order, null reads aren't but they're all so close there's no need to rank them. Anyone in my null pile could move up or down pretty easily based on future information

Vote: GenericHandle

Red Ryu I'll post something small for you quickly

 

[Orboknown]

I like maven a lot better now.
Feel like scums in generic/koops/ryu with a splash of sneaky kr tako if im wrong in the bottom three

 

[MoosyDoosy]

Not going to lie, I have a growing itch on RadicalRat.

He says he’s voting for tako because he thinks he’s Mafia PR, but I’ve already shown that tako likely isn’t Mafia or PR. I’ve also shown that lynching into him right now is not worth the risk but he's still going after tako. :/

 

[Maven89]

Honestly he might just not believe you, him saying he "already found scum" sounds to me like he's in a full blown tunnel and only a scum flip would get him out

 

[MoosyDoosy]

Honestly he might just not believe you, him saying he "already found scum" sounds to me like he's in a full blown tunnel and only a scum flip would get him out

Well then, we shall save him from his tunnel.

 

[Maven89]

#HBC | Red Ryu Day 1, Bard came in with some strange behavior that resulted in several people voting him, around halfway through day 1 (and I think maybe l-3?) he claimed Tracker. While we were putting pressure on him the claim was pretty out of the blue. Then Sneakytako counter-claimed that he was even-night tracker. Bard then said he forgot his real role and he was actually odd-night tracker, to which SneakyTako claimed that he actually lied and he was odd-night tracker, not even, and lied about it in case Bard was actually even-night, as well as to avoid RB's and such. Pretty weird, but in the end Bard swapping his claim around meant he was lying, so we lynched him.

Gheb was NK'd, he was considered town by almost everyone, not very surprising

Day 2 SneakyTako came in saying he was guaranteed town, purposefully ruffled everyone's feathers, and said he knew Rake was scum but wasn't going to tell us why. We basically just sat around waiting for him to actually post, and overall day 2 is pretty embarrassing for town because we literally let the entire day go to waste waiting for Tako. Eventually he did post, but it was pretty close to deadline, and we basically just went "eh" and followed suit and lynched Rake. Rake was town.

Then Zaixl, who most people had as a semi-scum lean, was NK'd. It's odd.

So, yeah. SneakyTako I still find to be town, Gheb flipped as even-night watcher so it seems there's definitely even/odd night roles in the game, and it would have been the craziest coincidence of all time if Tako did a bus by making up odd/even roles for no reason, and then turned out those were actually in the game and he picked the correct odd/even combo for the very next flip.

 

[Maven89]

Also, Tak said he tracked Koopa (your slot) night 1, but you didn't go anywhere

 

[MoosyDoosy]

To continue, the flips and such left us with the following people:

Orboknown
RadicalRat
Ryu
sneakytako
Maven89
GenericHandle
MoosyDoosy

So to use some basic process of elimination, sneaky’s town, Maven’s town, and Moosy’s town. This leaves us with Orbo/Radical/Ryu/Generic for lynches. I had a town lean on RadicalRat so I’m going to omit him from the list for now which leaves us with Orbo/Ryu/Generic. Koopa was afk and didn’t do anything so we have to wait to see what Ryu will do. Which leaves us with Orbo and Generic, and Generic is objectively scummy for reasons which both me and Maven outlined. So vote Generic and partake in the town crusade!

 

[RadicalRat]

I actually stopped reading his post when I saw that line, which is probably dumb, but I'm trying to finish up with the reading and didn't find value in reading the tunnel.

 

[RadicalRat]

EBWOP: Whoops, hit post before actually responding.

I urge you to go back and read that post. I may very well be tunneling, but I wouldn't be if I didn't have some damn good reasoning.

 

[sneakytako]

Finished reading day 2, sneakytako can you quote the Rake post where he said he knew Bardull was going to claim? Because i don't remember seeing that at all when I re-read

Other then that, not much. I like Orboknown much more based on day 2 and RadicalRat much less.

Getting into day 3 now

FYI post 340

How do you mean if he flipped town ? Are we working under the assumption he's scummy for sopme reason ?

If bardull was scum he wouldnt be scum with Gheb or yourself. Not how bardull plays mafia iirc.

If he flips town I'd be less inclined to look at gheb because he has no reason to start a wagon like this as scum. Like this wagon in terms of how hard gheb's actually working to get bardull dead in nowhere near how lambasted bardull could be getting due to him generally being misunderstood alot and being a bit of a derp / acting in ways people feel are scummy but aren't. This wagon really doesn't feel like its gonna go anywhere to me, once bardull responds short of him claiming scum the push is over. Thats just the way this will crumble because the accusations on bardull aren't what you need to seal a lynch, which is what scum wants, the guarentee. If bardull's town it'll be evident once he gets his head back on and defends himself.

Honestly you should vote maven with me, the laze the slot puts on in scum roles is real and i'd rather strangle him for content than waste braincells figuring out bardull v gheb is likely TvT

This was 3 days into day 1, with 3 days left and only two votes on bardul. There wasn't a lot of pressure on bardul, and I found it very strange (although it turned out to be nothing)

 

[sneakytako]

Also Maven, I feel like I was being as polite as possible when orbo's responses to my questions were essentially 'your questions are dumb and I'm not going to answer'.

 

[sneakytako]

I'm down for lynching generic, but wtf are we gonna do about koopa/red ryu?

I'm trying to think of a way we can get a read on him, I got nothing.