*cracks knuckles*
11 townie
2 cop
3 bomb
1 tactician
1 inheritor
1 godfather
16 town vs. 3 mafia
Seems almost ridiculously unfair for mafia until you see what bombs do: they're townie killers at a 1:1 ratio. If rewired, a 3:1 ratio!
Assuming the mafia gets one correct rewire and kills all bombs, of the 16 town, half would die. That's heavy.
"If you are daykilled, you will cause an explosion that will randomly kill one other town aligned player who is NOT also a bomb. This will not happen if you are night killed, unless you are turned into a Re-wired Bomb by the Mafia Tactician."
Bombs only go off if you are daykilled. NOT modkilled or Night Killed.
As such, all the bombs could simply attempt to Daykill and get modkilled because of it. Bombs don't go off.
13 town vs. 3 mafia
16 players, 3 mafia - 18% chance of hitting mafia (note: this is also mafia's chance at hitting a bomb randomly with a full game)
15/3 - 20%
14/3 - 21%
13/3- 23%
12/3 - 25%
11/3 - 27%
10/3 - 30%
9/3 - 33%
8/3 - 37.5%
7/3 - 42.8%
6/3 - 50% (at this point mafia have won the game)
If mafia are methodical and we DON'T have all the bombs suicide?
16 town players /3 bombs- 18% of mafia hitting a bomb
Since Mafia get TWO chances to do something awesome with Bombs (rewire/ Night kill), that means they get TWO chances to do it.
Not to mention, there's a daykill by someone who isn't a bomb. They can hit a bomb too.
That's three separate 18% chances to hit a bomb, two of which are methodical.
There's danger in trying to rewire someone that isn't a bomb, so you could expect mafia to not do that until later... but that just means that bombs should die early. There's no reason for bombs to live except for their desire to play; this does not help town, and is selfish behavior.
In other words:
Bomb players are detrimental to town, and the best way to implement their win condition is to kill themselves.
Not only does this lengthen the amount of time other townies will live, but it increases the odds that they'll hit mafia (and makes the mafia rewirer guy near useless unless he knows when he's hit a cop).
Looking at the mafia investigator, should he survive the game until later on when people will be more likely to catch someone who hasn't used a daykill:
10 players, 2 mafia left, 2 bombs left
Mafia won't hit themselves, so essentially a 8/2 chance. The mafia then have a 25% of hitting a bomb with a NKill and then a 28.5% chance of getting a bomb with a rewiring.
That's bad for town.
ADDITIONALLY
Bombs cannot daykill.
Cops cannot daykill.
2/3 mafia cannot daykill.
11 townie
2 cop
3 bomb
1 tactician
1 inheritor
1 godfather
A whopping 18.75% of town can't daykill.
36.8% of the entire game can't daykill.
Removing the three bombs?
15% of town can't daykill.
25% of the game can't daykill.
This is much more in town's favor.
Mathematically, it is difficult for town to lose if they simply kill anyone who can't daykill.
I'll go into this more later, but I'm off work. There's a way that make it near impossible for mafia to win that I'll go into detail about later.
Basically, you randomize the players remaining every day with a confirmed player (if possible), he posts the list, and then the first person on that list uses a daykill on another person on the list.
Remove all confirmed townies from the list.
If the person refuses to daykill or simply can't, they are investigated by one of the cops, and the day after if they turn up town you know they are a cop.
Both cops investigates every day, and when it is his turn to daykill he posts all his results, and the other cop will post his as well after confirming whether he is town or not.
This will be entirely random; as to when the cops do this. If it is too early, the other cop can just leave him out to dry and the first cop can post his results and then be daykilled the day following.
The turning point would be when the cops claim and show all their investigations at once.
The game would then turn into a mafia godfather vs. the remaining town, which is then just a crapshoot loaded incredibly in town's favor.
