Ctoan
Smash Apprentice
- Joined
- Aug 27, 2018
- Messages
- 108
Hey y'all. Consider me on board wanting Arle in the game. She'd be such a unique character and Puyo is a fun game (even though I barely know how to set up a three chain ). Anyways, I thought I'd go over my own opinions of the alleged evidence for and against Arle and rate them in plausibility.
For-
Sakurai Daily Dev Picks: Not confident on this one. The Marth/Isabelle pic and the Kirby pic could be interpreted as referencing Arle, but the pics are very inconsistent and completely up to interpretation. Not saying they aren't, but they haven't convinced me. 3/10
Daisy with DLC Pic: Now this holds more water imo. Daisy does seem out of place there, is a very easy shoe in for arle due to Bayoen being associated with flowers, the spunky attitude, being female etc. Also the anniversary in a small pic is a great time to tease a character. (7/10)
Jon from Gamexplain: I think y'all underestimate how sneaky he is. Discounting the Grinch Leak immediately, hinting at no reveal at the Game Awards, posting otters before the announcement of a Direct, etc. It's pretty clear he has some kind of source. He did mention Arle in a very random, sudden, and odd way with no further discussion and just somewhat odd laughter from the others. I'm onto you Jon
. (8/10)
Puyo Games on Switch Online: It is really strange that they released untranslated versions of Puyo rather than Kirby's Avalanche and the Puyo game releasing the same day. But Devil May Cry is getting news that day too and it could just be Sega trying to further cement Puyo as it's own series. Not entirely convinced. 4/10
Puyo Dev Retweeting: I thought this didn't mean anything at first, but then I dug into the dude's Twitter history. The only things he's retweeted were Sega/Puyo related (apart from retweeting the announcement of the Xbox Series X, which is normal as console announcements are pretty big). But here's the big kicker, HE'S NEVER DONE THIS FOR A SHOWCASE ANNOUNCEMENT BEFORE. Furthermore, it is so different from the rest of his retweets (being for the announcement of very specific dlc for a company he doesn't work for). Granted, this could still end up just as mii costumes, but this may be as close to a smoking gun as you can be. 9/10
Against-
Vergeben "Deconfirmation": As some of y'all may know, Vergeben and Sabi are the leakers with the best track records. Both seem to have a source who allegedly knows who it is and began "deconfirming" characters who didn't fit its description. One of the characters Vergeben has "deconfirmed" is Arle. However it should be noted that Vergeben's record has been quite a bit spottier than Sabi's (Nintendo actually went after Sabi since they were so accurate), and Sabi hasn't said anything about Arle as of now. Probably the biggest hit, but still not really damning. 4/10
Puyo Universe Nonviolence: Supposedly in an old interview, a Puyo director claimed the Puyo Universe is nonviolent and even refused a fighting game because of this. However, Animal Crossing and Wii Fit are also very nonviolent series, yet they have reps in Smash too. Sakurai is more than smart enough to create a moveset without violent looking moves. Also Arle actually originated and starred in a dungeon crawler known as Madou Monogatari (which Puyo is actually a spin off of). It had Arle doing direct attacks and she even blew a dude's head off. So it's not like Arle herself is new to violence anyway. 2/10
Already Having A Sega Rep In The Pass: Some say Arle can't be in since Joker is already from Sega. But Joker is actually an Atlus character, and Sega is just Atlus' parent company and mostly treated independently. Even if he was purely a Sega character, it wouldn't matter. This is just another stupid arbitrary rule made by Smash fans. 1/10
Opposing Dante Evidence: There's a lot of people saying because DMC stuff is being announced on 16th, we may get Dante as a character instead. But it's supposedly mostly going to be about DLC for DMC3 on Switch instead. It holds even less water than the Puyo port on NSO that day since I doubt Nintendo would want to be that blatant about it. Plus Dante has much less going for him atm it seems, not to mention being "deconfirmed" by both Sabi and Vergeben (he would be an awesome fighter though, and hope he comes in future dlc). 3.5/10
So how would I rate Arle's chances? I'd say 7.5/10. It's hard to ignore all the stuff going for her. Jon's snarkiness and the Puyo director's interesting retweet are pretty solid and believable signs. Hope this comes true.
For-
Sakurai Daily Dev Picks: Not confident on this one. The Marth/Isabelle pic and the Kirby pic could be interpreted as referencing Arle, but the pics are very inconsistent and completely up to interpretation. Not saying they aren't, but they haven't convinced me. 3/10
Daisy with DLC Pic: Now this holds more water imo. Daisy does seem out of place there, is a very easy shoe in for arle due to Bayoen being associated with flowers, the spunky attitude, being female etc. Also the anniversary in a small pic is a great time to tease a character. (7/10)
Jon from Gamexplain: I think y'all underestimate how sneaky he is. Discounting the Grinch Leak immediately, hinting at no reveal at the Game Awards, posting otters before the announcement of a Direct, etc. It's pretty clear he has some kind of source. He did mention Arle in a very random, sudden, and odd way with no further discussion and just somewhat odd laughter from the others. I'm onto you Jon
Puyo Games on Switch Online: It is really strange that they released untranslated versions of Puyo rather than Kirby's Avalanche and the Puyo game releasing the same day. But Devil May Cry is getting news that day too and it could just be Sega trying to further cement Puyo as it's own series. Not entirely convinced. 4/10
Puyo Dev Retweeting: I thought this didn't mean anything at first, but then I dug into the dude's Twitter history. The only things he's retweeted were Sega/Puyo related (apart from retweeting the announcement of the Xbox Series X, which is normal as console announcements are pretty big). But here's the big kicker, HE'S NEVER DONE THIS FOR A SHOWCASE ANNOUNCEMENT BEFORE. Furthermore, it is so different from the rest of his retweets (being for the announcement of very specific dlc for a company he doesn't work for). Granted, this could still end up just as mii costumes, but this may be as close to a smoking gun as you can be. 9/10
Against-
Vergeben "Deconfirmation": As some of y'all may know, Vergeben and Sabi are the leakers with the best track records. Both seem to have a source who allegedly knows who it is and began "deconfirming" characters who didn't fit its description. One of the characters Vergeben has "deconfirmed" is Arle. However it should be noted that Vergeben's record has been quite a bit spottier than Sabi's (Nintendo actually went after Sabi since they were so accurate), and Sabi hasn't said anything about Arle as of now. Probably the biggest hit, but still not really damning. 4/10
Puyo Universe Nonviolence: Supposedly in an old interview, a Puyo director claimed the Puyo Universe is nonviolent and even refused a fighting game because of this. However, Animal Crossing and Wii Fit are also very nonviolent series, yet they have reps in Smash too. Sakurai is more than smart enough to create a moveset without violent looking moves. Also Arle actually originated and starred in a dungeon crawler known as Madou Monogatari (which Puyo is actually a spin off of). It had Arle doing direct attacks and she even blew a dude's head off. So it's not like Arle herself is new to violence anyway. 2/10
Already Having A Sega Rep In The Pass: Some say Arle can't be in since Joker is already from Sega. But Joker is actually an Atlus character, and Sega is just Atlus' parent company and mostly treated independently. Even if he was purely a Sega character, it wouldn't matter. This is just another stupid arbitrary rule made by Smash fans. 1/10
Opposing Dante Evidence: There's a lot of people saying because DMC stuff is being announced on 16th, we may get Dante as a character instead. But it's supposedly mostly going to be about DLC for DMC3 on Switch instead. It holds even less water than the Puyo port on NSO that day since I doubt Nintendo would want to be that blatant about it. Plus Dante has much less going for him atm it seems, not to mention being "deconfirmed" by both Sabi and Vergeben (he would be an awesome fighter though, and hope he comes in future dlc). 3.5/10
So how would I rate Arle's chances? I'd say 7.5/10. It's hard to ignore all the stuff going for her. Jon's snarkiness and the Puyo director's interesting retweet are pretty solid and believable signs. Hope this comes true.
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