Anyone else notice a pattern with the new challenger updates?

[sirmackerel]

Why is this thread even alive? A character has been revealed for November. It's that guy I'd never heard of for that game I'd never heard of.

Come again? There hasn't been a New Challenger update in November so far...

 

[Magically Enhanced Hobo]

Seems plausible enough, but like everyone here I hope you're wrong, I'm itching for a new Character or two in the next few weeks.

Yuna, Saki was an Assist Trophy.

 

[XACE-K]

I f this pattern is true then I'm expecting 3 of the following characters being confirmed next month: Krystal, Issac, Ridley, Claus, Lucario, Sukapon, Captain Olimar or Megaman confirmed.

 

[slacker!]

Why is this thread even alive? A character has been revealed for November. It's that guy I'd never heard of for that game I'd never heard of.

He meant one of those "Warning: Challenger Approaching" type things with the banner and all.

 

[Crescent]

Interesting theory.

I'm pulling for a big update on December 3rd as well, if just to stop me from crying when I wake up and realize that Brawl could have been released that day...

But honestly, what is left? I can't really think of anymore OMGWTFPWN updates that Sakurai could pull on us.

 

[METROID MAN]

I guess, you COULD have something here, but I wouldn't bet on it...

 

[susu_atari]

This theory doesn't hold water, I'm afraid, as the release date was the 3rd of December before. It's interesting, but I can't really say it could be anything more than a coincidence.

 

[TheGlitchMaster]

i don't think there's a pattern. it's just what sakurai wants to annouce. he gave us sonic to soften the delay o' doom.if he's giving us bad news, he'll give us the last 3rd party.we just need to wait till dec., jan. to get the big news.

 

[ruffrydr017]

I'm one of few who believes this is probably true. Nothing has deconfirmed this theory, so in my mind, it still stands. If we get 3 new, previously unrevealed characters in December, the theory stands strong.

 

[soviet prince]

I am beginning to think that he will reveal the starting rooster the 3rd before the Mag. does.

 

[X-x-Dyce-x-X]

This theory doesn't hold water, I'm afraid, as the release date was the 3rd of December before. It's interesting, but I can't really say it could be anything more than a coincidence.

Well YOU'RE arguement doesn't hold anymore water than this thread. Sakurai could have more than easily changed his update planning for the release date pushback. Not to mention that the theory IS holding water so far. It has yet to be proven false.

 

[Dreamking]

I try not to notice or put faith in patterns for the updates. I just take them one at a time, but hopefully we'll get a character addition soon.

 

[Megavitamins]

Wow amazing discovery. If this this right, we may be able to predict the unpredictable sakurai

 

[Jimtopia]

Interesting pattern, never noticed that before.

 

[Zarckoh]

Nice find, I hope that we get some newcomers revealed at December.

 

[Brockman5]

I actually like this pattern...but we all know sakurai has people who search smashboards and now that you're on too his pattern he will change it...

 

[AlbelNox]

Ike: 1/8
Lucas: 1/10

Pokemon Trainer: 13/8
Sonic: 10/10

Diddy Kong: 22/8
King Dedede: 25/10

Yeah, I see a pattern there. So we can expect a character update on:

3/12
1x/12
2x/12

 

[TomH]

Anyone who thinks they have found patterns in small sample numbers doesnt understand pattern detection.

Ok, its assumed that Sukari wouldnt announce more than 4 people in a month, so someone tell me a 4 month set of numbers that CANT be turned into some bull**** pattern. (aka: 1 1 2 3 would be fibbanachi numbers, 3 4 2 3 would be "3 4 2 3 1 2 0 1, goes up by 1, then down by 2 every other month")

3 0 3 0 is not a pattern. Read the other post about patterns, ALL OF THEM were wrong. insane...

 

[WarioII]

What interview??

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-8W19ljhK7E THIS ONE!

 

[sirmackerel]

Well, November has come and gone without any new challengers... let's see if we get one on Dec. 3.

 

[X-x-Dyce-x-X]

Your pattern has held for yet another month (unless they update a newcomer over the weekend)(???).
I hope we get a newcomer on Monday, it'd only be fair.

 

[Boofer]

This pattern most likely won't continue unless he starts revealing unlockable characters.

 

[ss118]

wow, this is amazing!
no wonder there weren't any good updates this month.
I hope this is right.....

 

[SmashWolf]

By now, there are 23 characters, which is nearly as much as Melee.

There are a few characters that are already nearly pretty sure to come.

-Captain Falcon. He's been in both Smash Bros games, has an original moveset, and has got an assist trophy.
-JigglyPuff. He's been in both games, has an orginal moveset, and I don't Nintendo would throw him away.
-Luigi. He's been named in an interview, and I seriously doubt Nintendo would not put in Luigi. He's probably get more original moves, though.
-Mewtwo. He has a completely original moveset, and he felt Brawl-ish in Melee. He'd be perfect.
-Gannondorf. Nintendo said they were still busy making Sheik's and Gannondorf's models for Brawl. So I guess he's in.
-Sheik. Zelda NEEDS this transformation, unless she gets buffed alot.

That makes 28. More than Melee. No doubt there will also be few other newcomers, so lets just guess from 3-5 more, making it about 32. There are also few possible returns, but quite doubtfull.

-Ness. He has been in previous Smash games, so there's a possible return. But with Lucas earning his moveset....?
-Falco. He's a clone, and clones have a very minimal chance at returning. But...Ganondorf wil return, probably with new moves. Maybe Falco will too, also with new moves.
-Young Link. He felt like an entirely differen't person to me in Melee. But chances he'll return are VERY small. TP Link got in, and he was a clone too.
-Doctor Mario. Forget about it. Alternate costume at a max. 0.0001% chance at returning.
-Pichu. He's been kinda deconfirmed now Pika got his goggles, but there's still hope. Maybe from a poke ball?
-Marth. Ike got a similiar moveset to Marth's, but he plays nowhere near the same as Marth. So perhaps there's hope for Marth after all?
-Roy. Marth has gotten small hopes for coming back. How big would Roy's be?

If all those guys would return(small chance), there would be 39 characters. But I guess Sakurai will suprise us with way more than 5 more newcomers. I've got my hopes for Brawl up. But remember that 100 characters don't beat a good game engine.

 

[Pluvia's other account]

It's just coincidence.

Smashwolf, look at all the likely Newcomers. Even adding a small amount of them will equal over 40 Characters.

 

[Boofer]

I think it all comes down to who is unlockable and who isn't. I really want to know how many vets will be unlockable. If we get about 6 unlockable vets, then I expect over 6 unlockable newcomers...And remember, most of these revealed newcomers are probably starters.

This is kind of why I don't believe in this theory. I don't think he's going to reveal secret characters this early, and I doubt we'll get anymore than one more starting newcomer...He'd have to break that rule if he was going to reveal 3 newcomers.

 

[X-x-Dyce-x-X]

I know the roster might not max out TOO high, and we already have 23 completely original, independant, individual, and different characters; not to mention that each of the 11 newcomers so far are original (including Lucas, who is basically a luigified Ness), which is a bit more than how many non-clone newcomers we got in Melee (which was 8 [or 9 if you count the luigified Luigi, which you should, especially if you're counting Lucas]). But I want MORE than this. I'm starving for more originality and a HUGE roster of at least 35. I don't want many more new starters, I want the rest to be unlockable secret characters.

I hated beating a new challenger, only to find out they played exactly like an old fighter. It's just a bit disappointing.

EDIT:
And I do believe Sakurai will reveal some secret characters, but definitely not all, by February 10th. I could see Sakurai giving us Jigglypuff and Luigi, maybe even Gannondorf (because we all know he'll be in. They wouldn't not put him in.)

After February 10th, I think we'll be getting one new secret character a week from then on. But that won't really matter to me, because I'm unlocking EVERYTHING in the first week or two.

 

[CptPants]

So if this pattern is correct, then we should see a New Character on Monday?!

 

[Boofer]

I wouldn't worry about having 35 characters. Imo that seems right around the miminimum, considering we'll probably have over 20 starters. If you add all the confirmed characters to the likely amount of unannounced but returning vets (about 6-8), we already have about 30 characters. We'd only need 5 more unlockable newcomers to make 35. I think we could easily get over 5 unlockable newcomers if melee is any indicator.

 

[h1roshi]

wow, i dont understand how people could actually spot things like this. do you just have to spend hour and hours on the dojo until you find some cool new thing? well, anyways, lets see what happens in december...peace

-hiroshi

 

[Chidosengan]

So if this patter is right, we will hopefully get three new characters this month, then nothing on January (which is when the game comes out in Japan), and then the hidden ones will kick in on February. We would have the game by then.

It all comes together, doesn't it?

 

[ValiantVernon]

well this was a great theory and i hope its tru due to the fact i want to see some new char updates!!
My personl theory is maybe Sakurai didnt plan to have the release date pushed back when he released the site and now for the last month hes had to give trash updates to compinsate...if this is true then we will get good updates in another week or so but i hope ur theory proves tru cause thats sooner =)
Geno for the first Dec character update woohooo!!!!!

 

[SinisterLizard]

No no no. There are no patterns. If this is true, why no new characters in June? Why start a pattern in August? Do you guys know nothing about mathematics and patterns?

Better yet...do you know nothing about Sakurai? He is not predictable.

I hated beating a new challenger, only to find out they played exactly like an old fighter. It's just a bit disappointing.

Um, they don't play the exact same way. In fact, they all played quite differently from one another...

So if this pattern is correct, then we should see a New Character on Monday?!

Herein lies the proof.

 

[Pluvia's other account]

Actually, if we do get a new Character on Monday, I don't think it has anything to do with the pattern. I think it'll have more to do with the fact it's December 3rd.

 

[Demon Kirby]

Well, that settles it. This thoery is true.

*stamp*

Let's hope for a challenger on Monday.

 

[Drclaw411]

Anyone else notice a pattern with the new challenger updates?

Yes...they havn't existed.

 

[The Director]

Well, we'll find out if your crazy theory is right on Monday, I guess.

Oops. For a lot of you it will be Sunday night.

 

[Mikezor]

Actually, if we do get a new Character on Monday, I don't think it has anything to do with the pattern. I think it'll have more to do with the fact it's December 3rd.

I just don't see December 3rd as all that important of a date for updates. Just because it was a past release date for one or two countries doesn't mean the Japanese will feel sympathetic for us North Americans. Go theory!

Yes...they havn't existed.

Wow, ok. Now where are your facts.

 

[The Director]

Dec. 3rd: Newcomer: Krystal

LOLOLOL Megaman would be nice.

 

[X-x-Dyce-x-X]

No no no. There are no patterns. If this is true, why no new characters in June? Why start a pattern in August? Do you guys know nothing about mathematics and patterns?

Better yet...do you know nothing about Sakurai? He is not predictable.

What does scheduling have to do with mathematics and patterns?

Um, they don't play the exact same way. In fact, they all played quite differently from one another...

I mean that I had seen all of their movesets before and it was boring at first. I know they play different first hand. I'm a Falco, Link, and Ganondorf main but I cannot play as any of their counterparts to save my life.