No, this is not a leak. This is just common sense.
I'm a long-time lurker at various smashbros forums (gamefaqs, neogaf, smashboards, here, etc). I've never registered, primarily because I'm not interested in fawning over various "prophets". I'm tired of reading the same things over and over again, so I'm making my first post.
Here goes:
Nintendo is slowly releasing the names of characters. We currently have a 22 character roster confirmed for sure [on smashbros.com]. Now, the 35-man rosters that are being bandied around have Lucario, Wolf, and ROB as the ONLY surprises [ie: unreleased, new appearances]
Are you serious?
1. If you're Sakurai, you don't put in years of work on new characters just to release it all ahead of time. That doesn't make sense from a marketing perspective or even from an enjoyment perspective. Sakurai obviously cares about the entire game experience (not just the tournament-scene multiplayer) and thus he will try to have plenty of surprises for avid smashers.
2. If you have a character in Melee, you're not just going to take him out without reason. There's no reason to leave out Mewtwo. There just isn't. He's a **** fighter - so what? Was the disk going to explode if they included the genetic freak? They have a move set already. They have models already made (from various games, including Melee). Why not put him in? Answer: they would, unless they already have more than enough characters [and basically everyone agrees that there aren't enough characters]
3. 35 is a strange number. This is a bit random, but they had 14 the first game, then 25 the second game [a 'meager' increase of 11]. Now, they know that people complained about the lack of characters in Melee - why increase the character count by even fewer? It makes little-to-no sense.
4. The Famitsu argument: 240 hours (the declared playing time for all characters combined) is not cleanly divisible by 35. 40 and 48 both work much better.
5. Clones. Seriously, even if I'm the laziest gamemaker in the world (which Sakurai is not), I know I'm going to get heavily scrutinized by fanboys and avid smashers for the number of characters I include. Why would I not make clones if I'm running short on character ideas? If I only have 35 characters so far (a meager increase of 10), why would I not throw in Dr. Mario, Pichu, and Roy? They're easy to program, since we already have the movesets, models, and physics. Speaking as a programmer, a clone is a programmer's best friend. There will be clones. Count on it.
6. Bosses. Some bosses don't play well as characters (see: Giga Bowser, Rayquaza, Master Hand). But that's mainly due to their size. I refuse to believe that any normal sized bosses will appear in smash and not be selectable as characters. It would be oddly limiting. Again, remember that Sakurai knows the criticisms of character quantity. He'll do everything to prevent that this time around. For instance, Ridley - if they're going to program a move set, physics, and a model for him, they'd be silly not putting him in (it's for this reason that I'll believe the ROB rumors, btw - they have him programmed for SSE, why not as a character?).
7. There are still many characters left on Sakurai's poll. Even if they were clones, Sakurai would put them in. Black Knight? Easy to clone [pseudo Ike clone]. Isaac? How hard is it to make Yet Another Swordsman?
Conclusion: The point that I'm making here is not that any of the characters mentioned above are in for sure [read: I don't know if Isaac, Black Knight, Ridley, Mewtwo, Roy, etc.. are in], but rather that Sakurai would never let the game have only 35 characters. It just wouldn't happen. If they went through the trouble to program Sonic (despite not knowing if they'd get the rights, iirc), they'll certainly make sure the game is saturated with characters. I'm betting on 40+ -- 48 would be mouth-watering.QUOTE]
I think he's making sense. Why would Sakurai work on this game for so long when only he'll include 35 characters?