Law of averages + Number of people who post on the internet = someone was bound to correctly guess three characters, no matter how obscure. NCAA basketball tournament is always 100% unpredictable, but people still manage to guess 100% correctly. It usually has to do with weird biases. "Wii Fit was my favorite game, Wii Fit Trainer is bound to be in Smash!"
Yeah. Villager was also kind of out of the blue though. I mean if you took what Sakurai said to heart he should not have even been up for debate. Megaman could have been harder to license or he could have followed the Sonic trend of not making it in the game until late in development. So to guess all 3 would be pretty crazy. I mean especially considering the majority of people always throw in some really stupid ones.
Not to mention Little Mac is already pretty likely given the Punch Out stage and his former appearances as a trophy and an assist trophy. Of course there was also the Wii Punch Out that released after Brawl. So he isn't a crazy guess.
Pac-Man is the furthest from a crazy guess given who is developing the game. He is also a video game icon that looks like he would fit in the SSB world.
Miis are also a fair prediction considering that Sakurai is alluding to some kind of character customization.
My point is that the 3 crazy guesses are out of the way. The last 3 are pretty rational predictions. Not to mention the list is absent of fan favorites like K. Rool, Palutena, Ridley, or Mewtwo. It seems really weird that most people think at least one of the 4 I mentioned will make it in. Yet not one is one the leaked list. If I was making a leak that I wanted people to believe I would have thrown in someone from that list. Not only to make people believe me... but to make them WANT to believe me. Most people are in denial because they don't really like Pac-Man or Miis. I still think it is pretty likely though. Look at Villager, he is nothing more than a glorified Mii.
I don't know. To call it chance that someone would just leak a list with someone Sakurai said wouldn't be part of the Smash games, an obscure character that nobody guessed, and a character that could have been tied in red-tape is pretty bold. The rest of the list is fairly rational as well. Miis I could see coming even if I hate them. Pac-Man is a given. Little Mac has a lot going for him. You can call it a coincidence if you want... but you seem to be under the impression that everyone on the internet leaks things. There are only a FEW people who claim to have leaks. So the law of averages (I don't even think that applies in this circumstance) means less than what you assume.
A weird bias doesn't even begin to describe how someone thought Wii Fit Trainer was going to make it in the game. You would also need to be a creative individual to even think about her in a fighting game with move-set potential. Say a person thought she was actually in the game... this person didn't claim that. They claimed she would be REVEALED at E3. I mean really? None of these are really front runners with the exception of Mega-Man. So why would an individual assume she would be leading the newcomers? That is also a correct "guess".
They also loaded the list with Miis. No one really wants to have Miis in the game. I mean only casuals who will play the game for a week or two really care about Miis. So why put that on a list? That seems like the only one I have a problem with. Even so, Sakurai did say character customization was incoming. So it is a possibility. With the implementation of the Miiverse and what not I think it is a probable guess. It is funny how I am defending the list yet I think it is not credible based on one mere selection. I guess my innate predisposition to disregard Miis is derived from the notion that I do not want them in the game. I think that is similar to what people are construing currently. If you don't like the list it creates a bias. You hope the list isn't true so you choose not to believe it. How could Sakurai put Miis in the game? That is the only reason I have a problem with the list. At least I am willing to be honest about it though.
TL;DR- There is no way this was a coincidence. It would be irrational to disregard the list simply because it is not favorable. However, the list is a logical one. The gimmicky ones were revealed at E3. Now we have some obvious ones like Little Mac and Pac-Man. I am still a little skeptical towards the idea of Miis though (but there is something to support the theory).