All newcomers were leaked along Little Mac, Pac Man and the Miis

[Tree Gelbman]

I still don't understand why people are so desperate to treat this lucky guess as a legit leak.

Because it's a REALLY lucky guess if so.

 

[SmashChu]

We can't be sure of that until the final roster is revealed. It could have been a guess. A damn good guess. Just like Little Mac or Pac-Man are damned good guesses. It doesn't really matter if he had insider knowledge. Most of the list appears pretty correct as of now. I mean I feel like Little Mac has great chances and Pac-Man is a given. Miis are the only ones I have doubt about. So if he just had a lucky guess... it doesn't really matter.

Your post confuses me for two reasons.
1)You say Little Mac and Pac-Man are good guess like they are confirmed
2)You some how think Pac-Man is a given when Sakurai has said Namco characters don't get special treatment and Pac-Man is at the bottom of popularity as far as characters go.

 

[Phaazoid]

You know I almost wanna say he just got a super, super lucky guess. If he really knew the villager was gonna be in, why'd he write animal crossing guy instead of villager?

I'm gonna put my money on ultra lucky guess. Also, if he implies that these 6 are the only newcomers, I'm calling some BS. There's gonna be more than 6 newcomers, even if it means cuts.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

I'm gonna say lucky guess. Is the guy still even there and how active was he before posting that?

 

[Neanderthal]

I'm gonna say lucky guess. Is the guy still even there and how active was he before posting that?

Good question. Any Neogaf users out there that can check on him?

BTW he came here and posted in this thread a few pages back if you want to check that out. The name is something like Salromano. Seems like its him and probably not a troll.

You know I almost wanna say he just got a super, super lucky guess. If he really knew the villager was gonna be in, why'd he write animal crossing guy instead of villager?

I'm gonna put my money on ultra lucky guess. Also, if he implies that these 6 are the only newcomers, I'm calling some BS. There's gonna be more than 6 newcomers, even if it means cuts.

He did not imply that at all.

 

[Neanderthal]

My theory/scenario as to what happened with the leak that explains every question mark on the whole story:

The original source worked closely on the E3 presentation or with the SSB team itself for the English versions of their videos. Lets call him Source Zero.

Source Zero probably worked on something like the character reveal videos or was involved in English translation for them etc.
But he had no involvement with gameplay or the development team. So all he knew was the characters he was working on videos for and was not told any other information that he didn't need to know (as would be common practice).

Source Zero was working on or knew about 6 videos for 6 characters that were in production. (Villager, Megaman, WFT, Mii, Little Mac and Pac Man).

Source Zero let it slip to another guy who he trusted about who the characters were that he was working on videos for. Lets call this other guy Source One.
S-One didn't know much about Animal Crossing so S-Zero had to explain that Villager is the guy from Animal Crossing.

So Source One knew that these six characters had videos being made for them.
Naturally he assumed that these videos would be shown at E3. Because... why wouldn't they? All videos in the past have been shown at E3.
Other newcomers have been shown in text and images.

HOWEVER, Sakurai has since implied that all newcomers will be introduced with a video this time.

So the videos that were currently in production were not all planned for E3 reveals. Some of them were planned to be shown on the DOJO instead and the ones we heard about (Pac, Mac & Mii) just happened to be the first three DOJO videos in development which explains why S-Zero knew about them.

Like explained, Source One incorrectly assumed that all videos were made for E3 when they were not.
Source One told Saromano (the final leaker) what he believed to be true.
Specifically that Little Mac, Pac-Man, the Animal Crossing Guy, Mega Man, Wii Fit Trainer and Mii would be shown at E3.

Salromano found these characters to be very odd and unlikely and he deeply questioned the legitimacy of Source One. But just for the hell of it he posted it anyway as the infamous prediction.




This is one scenario which would explain everything and shows that this rumour is definitely not confirmed to be a hoax. There could be several other possible scenarios which lead to the leak saying all 6 would be revealed at E3 when only 3 were planned.
Alternatively, plans could have simply changed when they became aware of the leak.

 

[CalumG]

@Neanderthal: A good theory, if a little optimistic. I'm still personally buying into the theory that the guy who leaked this doesn't have extensive insider knowledge, such as characters that are yet to be revealed. To me, it seems pretty likely that the person in question was only given information pertaining to the three characters announced at E3 - meaning he is much more likely to be involved in press and/or events organizing than actual development or marketing.

If we take that at face value for a second, we've got a guy who knows about the inclusion of Villager, Megaman and Wii Fit Trainer. Maybe it wasn't so obvious at the time but it's clear in retrospect that Little Mac, Pac-Man and Mii were probably fabrications of the leaker in order to cover his own back, make it less obvious that he's leaking, troll the online community or otherwise give us some red herrings. After all, Little Mac is quite clearly another character in the running for being the first-rep of his first-party series (just as Villager was), Pac-Man is another obvious competitor as far as popular and likely third-parties go (at the time competing with Megaman) and Mii is on the same level as Wii Fit Trainer in the sense that it comes from the Wii era and would probably rustle our jimmies on a cataclysmic scale.

It just seems a bit odd to me that for every character that was revealed out of the six, there is an equal counterpart who wasn't revealed but fills the same kind of demographic spot on the roster; 2x popular first-parties without existing reps, 2x unpopular first-parties as Wii reps, and 2x popular third-parties from old-school franchises. That alone makes it clear to me that it was in fact a leak, but that we shouldn't necessarily expect the other three to come to fruition.

 

[SmashChu]

My theory/scenario as to what happened with the leak that explains every question mark on the whole story:

The original source worked closely on the E3 presentation or with the SSB team itself for the English versions of their videos. Lets call him Source Zero.

Source Zero probably worked on something like the character reveal videos or was involved in English translation for them etc.
But he had no involvement with gameplay or the development team. So all he knew was the characters he was working on videos for and was not told any other information that he didn't need to know (as would be common practice).

Source Zero was working on or knew about 6 videos for 6 characters that were in production. (Villager, Megaman, WFT, Mii, Little Mac and Pac Man).

Source Zero let it slip to another guy who he trusted about who the characters were that he was working on videos for. Lets call this other guy Source One.
S-One didn't know much about Animal Crossing so S-Zero had to explain that Villager is the guy from Animal Crossing.

So Source One knew that these six characters had videos being made for them.
Naturally he assumed that these videos would be shown at E3. Because... why wouldn't they? All videos in the past have been shown at E3.
Other newcomers have been shown in text and images.

HOWEVER, Sakurai has since implied that all newcomers will be introduced with a video this time.

So the videos that were currently in production were not all planned for E3 reveals. Some of them were planned to be shown on the DOJO instead and the ones we heard about (Pac, Mac & Mii) just happened to be the first three DOJO videos in development which explains why S-Zero knew about them.

Like explained, Source One incorrectly assumed that all videos were made for E3 when they were not.
Source One told Saromano (the final leaker) what he believed to be true.
Specifically that Little Mac, Pac-Man, the Animal Crossing Guy, Mega Man, Wii Fit Trainer and Mii would be shown at E3.

Salromano found these characters to be very odd and unlikely and he deeply questioned the legitimacy of Source One. But just for the hell of it he posted it anyway as the infamous prediction.




This is one scenario which would explain everything and shows that this rumour is definitely not confirmed to be a hoax. There could be several other possible scenarios which lead to the leak saying all 6 would be revealed at E3 when only 3 were planned.
Alternatively, plans could have simply changed when they became aware of the leak.

In order for all the questions to be answered, you had to make the most convoluted scenario. Even with your bizarre scenario, it doesn't explain how the leak didn't know anything else besides characters as stages and what happened in the videos would be known. Leaks usually have more information that character names.

And this is why I think it's not true.

 

[Neanderthal]

@Neanderthal: A good theory, if a little optimistic. I'm still personally buying into the theory that the guy who leaked this doesn't have extensive insider knowledge, such as characters that are yet to be revealed. To me, it seems pretty likely that the person in question was only given information pertaining to the three characters announced at E3 - meaning he is much more likely to be involved in press and/or events organizing than actual development or marketing.

If we take that at face value for a second, we've got a guy who knows about the inclusion of Villager, Megaman and Wii Fit Trainer. Maybe it wasn't so obvious at the time but it's clear in retrospect that Little Mac, Pac-Man and Mii were probably fabrications of the leaker in order to cover his own back, make it less obvious that he's leaking, troll the online community or otherwise give us some red herrings. After all, Little Mac is quite clearly another character in the running for being the first-rep of his first-party series (just as Villager was), Pac-Man is another obvious competitor as far as popular and likely third-parties go (at the time competing with Megaman) and Mii is on the same level as Wii Fit Trainer in the sense that it comes from the Wii era and would probably rustle our jimmies on a cataclysmic scale.

It just seems a bit odd to me that for every character that was revealed out of the six, there is an equal counterpart who wasn't revealed but fills the same kind of demographic spot on the roster; 2x popular first-parties without existing reps, 2x unpopular first-parties as Wii reps, and 2x popular third-parties from old-school franchises. That alone makes it clear to me that it was in fact a leak, but that we shouldn't necessarily expect the other three to come to fruition.

Yeah I think those three being red herrings is a legitimate possibility. But I just think its more likely that they are as true as the other three and yet to be revealed.

In order for all the questions to be answered, you had to make the most convoluted scenario. Even with your bizarre scenario, it doesn't explain how the leak didn't know anything else besides characters as stages and what happened in the videos would be known. Leaks usually have more information that character names.

And this is why I think it's not true.

It wasn't very convoluted at it's core. I made it that way by wording it as a story. But the main points are:
1) There could have been a source for the source of Salromano (or more). This would explain various things like the "animal crossing guy" and other question marks.
2) If anyone found out about videos being made for newcomers, they would automatically assume it is planned to be shown at E3. Even if it wasn't.

Those two points alone explain all of the inconsistencies that you always pick at.


And yes it does explain why they didn't reveal anything besides characters. Because the original source only disclosed the characters.
How could he go into fine detail when he didn't know them?
Not that it matters because he didn't know but, if you
Also doesn't matter but, any source at this early stage of development would be pretty careful not to reveal too many specific details that allows it to be traced back to them.

 

[TheTuninator]

It'd be pretty odd for Nintendo to make videos for characters that they were not planning to show for weeks or months alongside those for characters being shown at E3, but I suppose it's possible.

It is highly unlikely that Nintendo changed their plans as a result of the leak, though. The amount of people reached by the leak was miniscule compared to the amount of people watching E3 coverage as a whole, and it would quite frankly be insane for Nintendo to drop fully half of their Smash reveals at E3 because maybe 1%, if that, of the Smash fanbase found out about Nintendo's plans for the rest of the conference.

 

[Mr. Mumbles]

Personally, I'm just waiting for the next new comer reveal. If it is any of these three, then I will believe the leak. If it is anyone else, I refuse to believe that they were working on videos for characters who weren't even the next to be revealed, and so I won't believe this leak, but will instead believe what CalumG said.

 

[Phaazoid]

He did not imply that at all.

Then either this thread title is incredibly misleading or there is another leak I am un informed of.

Also, I stand by my previous statement. Often, the simplest explanation is the correct one. And imo, the simplest here is lucky guess. (he calleed villager animal crossing guy)

 

[Wario Bros.]

Even though I don't believe in this leak anymore, that doesn't mean Mii, Little Mac, & Pac-Man have absolutely 0% chance of being playable like most of the people in this topic are making it sound like. And since all 3 are on my wish list I'll happily welcome them to the game.

 

[CalumG]

Then either this thread title is incredibly misleading or there is another leak I am un informed of

Re-read the thread title. "All newcomers were leaked" - "along Little Mac, Pac-Man and the Miis". As in, all of the currently known newcomers were leaked in a post (the first part of the thread title), and alongside them were three more announced (the second part of the thread title). The syntax of the thread title is a little poor but I don't think anybody anywhere is implying that these six will be the only six, assuming the last three are even true.

 

[Phaazoid]

Re-read the thread title. "All newcomers were leaked" - "along Little Mac, Pac-Man and the Miis". As in, all of the currently known newcomers were leaked in a post (the first part of the thread title), and alongside them were three more announced (the second part of the thread title). The syntax of the thread title is a little poor but I don't think anybody anywhere is implying that these six will be the only six, assuming the last three are even true.

OHHHHH

See, I'm going to call that misleading title, because the syntax definitely implied that all, you know, ALL of the newcomers had been leaked. I was very confused. Thank you for clearing this up.

OP - please change the wording slightly xD

 

[SmashChu]

It wasn't very convoluted at it's core. I made it that way by wording it as a story. But the main points are:
1) There could have been a source for the source of Salromano (or more). This would explain various things like the "animal crossing guy" and other question marks.
2) If anyone found out about videos being made for newcomers, they would automatically assume it is planned to be shown at E3. Even if it wasn't.

Those two points alone explain all of the inconsistencies that you always pick at..

So your saying a source told another source who told a guy who didn't document a source. How does that not sound like an issue.

The problem is you assumed the rumor was true and are not trying to find ways to explain all the issues and inconsistencies. So instead of looking at the whole picture, you try to find ways to explain the issues because "it must be true right?" When you look at all the issues, it doesn't look very solid.

 

[volbound1700]

Re-read the thread title. "All newcomers were leaked" - "along Little Mac, Pac-Man and the Miis". As in, all of the currently known newcomers were leaked in a post (the first part of the thread title), and alongside them were three more announced (the second part of the thread title). The syntax of the thread title is a little poor but I don't think anybody anywhere is implying that these six will be the only six, assuming the last three are even true.

To be fair, it should stated all E3 newcomers. One could assume that this thread has a leak for all newcomers for Smash 4 period if they are new to the boards.

 

[BridgesWithTurtles]

We'll never know if the leak is legitimate or not unless we get irrefutable evidence provided about the leaker's source. Even if Little Mac, Mii, and Pac-Man all end up getting confirmed for the game, there's still the very slight possibility that he luckily guessed all six newcomers with no insider knowledge.

 

[volbound1700]

Law of averages + Number of people who post on the internet = someone was bound to correctly guess three characters, no matter how obscure. NCAA basketball tournament is always 100% unpredictable, but people still manage to guess 100% correctly. It usually has to do with weird biases. "Wii Fit was my favorite game, Wii Fit Trainer is bound to be in Smash!"

Not trying to be a jerk but most of the recent NCAA Tournaments have had no perfect brackets. People have picked crazy upsets (I have done it before) but no one has gotten every game 100% very often.

 

[Phaazoid]

if they are new to the boards.

>.>

<.<

Not trying to be a jerk but most of the recent NCAA Tournaments have had no perfect brackets. People have picked crazy upsets (I have done it before) but no one has gotten every game 100% very often.

yes but he said law of averages, your example doesn't apply. If you do the math, there are millions of different specific outcomes for the entire bracket, getting 100% there is crazy rare, because every decision you make means a whole bunch of outcomes you can't get to (with that losing team winning)

in smash character guessing, if anyone guessed any amount of characters > 3, and there aren't that many, even counting crazy wtf characters from nintendo, to guess from (maybe a few hundred at most), there are much higher chances that the 3 revealed characters could be guessed in one guess. And if you're being picky, he wasn't 100%, he threw 3 extra in. Statistics is a tricky mistress

 

[Kaye Cruiser]

You guys are STILL talking about this BS?

Let it die and just wait instead of pointlessly debating with no basis for either side of the argument. >>'

 

[Neanderthal]

So your saying a source told another source who told a guy who didn't document a source. How does that not sound like an issue.

The problem is you assumed the rumor was true and are not trying to find ways to explain all the issues and inconsistencies. So instead of looking at the whole picture, you try to find ways to explain the issues because "it must be true right?" When you look at all the issues, it doesn't look very solid.

I didn't assume anything.
If you read any of my posts correctly you would notice each time I only claim that my point proves that the leak isn't proven false. Not that it proves its true.

You're the only one who has spoken in absolutes saying that it "has been proven to be a hoax".

I maintain that I'm about 80/20 on whether the leaker's info about these 6 characters being in SSB4 is true or not.
All things considered It's probably true but you can never be too sure on these matters.
I argue with you because you are dismissing it so ignorantly without considering all of the possibilities.

 

[SmashChu]

I didn't assume anything.
If you read any of my posts correctly you would notice each time I only claim that my point proves that the leak isn't proven false. Not that it proves its true.

You're the only one who has spoken in absolutes saying that it "has been proven to be a hoax".

I maintain that I'm about 80/20 on whether the leaker's info about these 6 characters being in SSB4 is true or not.
All things considered It's probably true but you can never be too sure on these matters.

You have put a lot of time and effort trying to keep it alive and trying to say the glaring issues are not issues at all. Given that, it seems like you are assuming it's true. Basically, I'm saying look at it at face value. Do that, and it doesn't seem likely.

I argue with you because you are dismissing it so ignorantly without considering all of the possibilities.

Why do you care what I think? Why not just ignore me and leave it at that? I feel you are emotionally invested in this and are upset that I think differently. Might explain why you bugged me on my wall about this.
I have considered the possibility. The only thing keeping this possible is the guy guessed 3 out of the 6 characters. However, there is no documentation to support this, E3 has passed with no reveal, the leak has limited information, the poster posted "unconfirmed"sources before, and Sakurai has said Namco gets no special treatment which makes Pac-Man unlikely with his abysmal popularity. The alternative was that he got luck and ran with it. As there is more evidence against and for, then it's likely he got lucky. It only sounds believable if you believe there are no coincidences in the universe.

 

[Neanderthal]

You have put a lot of time and effort trying to keep it alive and trying to say the glaring issues are not issues at all. Given that, it seems like you are assuming it's true. Basically, I'm saying look at it at face value. Do that, and it doesn't seem likely.


Why do you care what I think? Why not just ignore me and leave it at that? I feel you are emotionally invested in this and are upset that I think differently. Might explain why you bugged me on my wall about this.
I have considered the possibility. The only thing keeping this possible is the guy guessed 3 out of the 6 characters. However, there is no documentation to support this, E3 has passed with no reveal, the leak has limited information, the poster posted "unconfirmed"sources before, and Sakurai has said Namco gets no special treatment which makes Pac-Man unlikely with his abysmal popularity. The alternative was that he got luck and ran with it. As there is more evidence against and for, then it's likely he got lucky. It only sounds believable if you believe there are no coincidences in the universe.

Yes I'm very upset that you have a different opinion to me. I've been crying myself to sleep about it.
Derp. No it's just forum discussion and speculation that has evolved into an argument. Standard internet forum business. You're every bit as guilty of starting these arguments and adding fuel to them as I am.

I maintain that at face value it seems more likely to be true than a hoax.

 

[Renji64]

Please smash gods don't let miis be true.

 

[Eternal phoenix Fire]

Yo Sakurai, show me lil' Mac sow I can't take my black ass to sleep before 1 AM. Thanks bro.

 

[moneyfrenzy]

Maybe he posted some characters and after the trailer edited the post? just a thought probably not right

 

[KingofPhantoms]

This thread had 666 replies before this...

Sorry. Couldn't help myself.

 

[N3ON]

Maybe he posted some characters and after the trailer edited the post? just a thought probably not right

Nah, his post would've shown up as edited, but it didn't.

 

[Sashimi]

On this website alone, there are dozens if not hundreds of people making roster predictions. Now consider how many people on the internet have made their predictions. The law of averages suggests that at least one person out there will get it right, regardless of whether or not he or she knows anything that we don't.

And we're not even sure if it's 100% right yet. One guy out of millions guesses 3 out of 6 names correctly, and everyone loses their minds. Imagine if every time someone picked the correct lottery numbers, people started wondering "There's no way he could have just guessed all those numbers perfectly. He must have had insider information." It's extremely unlikely, yes, but if enough people enter, someone will guess correctly eventually.

As for the fact that he claims it's leaked information, well...

 

[SmashChu]

On this website alone, there are dozens if not hundreds of people making roster predictions. Now consider how many people on the internet have made their predictions. The law of averages suggests that at least one person out there will get it right, regardless of whether or not he or she knows anything that we don't.

And we're not even sure if it's 100% right yet. One guy out of millions guesses 3 out of 6 names correctly, and everyone loses their minds. Imagine if every time someone picked the correct lottery numbers, people started wondering "There's no way he could have just guessed all those numbers perfectly. He must have had insider information." It's extremely unlikely, yes, but if enough people enter, someone will guess correctly eventually.

As for the fact that he claims it's leaked information, well...

I agree, though some people don't have a sense of skeptism. On what you said, there was another guy somewhere else who said people were putting WFT on rosters, just not very many. I haven't seen any, but I'm sure someone has. Really, if WFT was more common, this would have died a long time ago.

 

[DarkKry4]

whoever "leaked" this was smart by not putting Geno, Krystal or Ridley in the list of names. Then it would have been an automatically dismissed as fake.

I quite honestly think it may or may not be a leak. It could be a really good guess, who knows...

 

[Dark Phazon]

I still don't understand why people are so desperate to treat this lucky guess as a legit leak.

I cant ****ing believe this **** is still going on....

 

[Dark Phazon]

You guys are STILL talking about this BS?

Let it die and just wait instead of pointlessly debating with no basis for either side of the argument. >>'

R-E-A-L

T-A-L-K !!!!!

 

[Chicago BearHawks]

I thought it was pretty dumb to see this topic made in the first place, but what REALLY blew my mind, was that OTHER people actually thought this was a legit leak, and not some random guy making roster prediction #957328575.

And come on, pretty much everyone knew MM and Villager were gonna be in it. WFT was a safe guess as well.

 

[Sabrewulf238]

I can't help but feel a lucky guess is causing the whole smash bros community to fall over itself.

Has this guy said anything else? Did he just vanish? Does he even have a lick of credibility besides being lucky?

Edit: This post specifically calls them E3 character reveals:

http://gematsu.com/2013/06/wii-fit-trainer-joins-super-smash-bros

E3 is over though...I don't suppose they mean E3 2014?

All things said, Little Mac, Pac Man and Mii don't seem incredibly unlikely.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Listen. People there is one reason and one reason only why people are taking this leak seriously (myself included).

That's because of Wii Fit Trainer. A pick so WTF that no one could have possibly guessed it.

That is why people believe this leak.

 

[_R@bid_]

And come on, pretty much everyone knew MM and Villager were gonna be in it. WFT was a safe guess as well.

No, pretty much everyone did not know they were gonna be in it, and there's no way at all WFT could have been considered a safe guess. Villager had been expressly vetoed by Sakurai, and, well, WFT is the WTF character of this game: she was chosen in part because no one had thought of her. MM was pretty obvious, yeah, but the other's are not. The three in conjunction, along with a stage that looks very much like it's from Punch Out having been shown, does make it very clear that there was some form of insider info, whether or not it was fully accurate. When you look at things in hindsight, everything looks obvious. And the lucky guess theory would be more believable if he wasn't pretty much the only person ever to name WFT. The odds that the first person to think of her would also randomly guess the other two along with a character (Little Mac) that looks pretty likely as well judging from the trailer

 

[_Darkpit_]

at AIM0001

In my opinion, it wouldn't be a good idea. The reasons are:

Ridley... he is a tradiotional >Bosscharacter<. In Brawl, we hardly saw Charizard ( Pokemon Trainer ). Ridley has the same moveset like Charizard.Its to typical.

K.Rool... He is like King Dedede or Bowser... because he is heavy but strong in SSB4 ( It would be probably ). But its to typical too.

Pacman.... On the one hand, everybody want him but on the other hand afther the release ( I think probably between 6 months and 12 months ) no one will play him.You have cool and dangerous Characters like Pit, Ganondorf, Captain Falcon... and than you see Pacman... xD Its too laughably i think. ^^ But I like Pacman too. ^^

Plus:

We need some female and individually characters... Zero Suit Samus, Zelda etc. were great.. Whats about Amazon Pandora? ^^ She has unique / individuelly techniques like the mirrorhearts, she can teleport ( okay like Zelda ) and she has a sword. ^^ She would be the first female character with a sword and magic. ^^ I think she is physically athletic ( you can see this in Kid Icarus Uprising if you have beat Amazon Pandora the first time as Darkpit ).


But I think we have more female characters. ^^

 

[Pyra]

Even though I don't believe in this leak anymore, that doesn't mean Mii, Little Mac, & Pac-Man have absolutely 0% chance of being playable like most of the people in this topic are making it sound like. And since all 3 are on my wish list I'll happily welcome them to the game.

Yeah. I remember when I stopped believing in it after E3 ended and people thought I was saying NONE of them had a chance even though I tried to say that's not what I meant.

I'd be damned if I wasn't right though. The final three may make it in, but the rumor is false.
Incoming walls of text.