4BR Official Tier List Discussion

[Xiivi]

Yeah, the whole reason of attempting to get voting finalized before February was precisely so that we could get it out before Corrin/Bayonetta to reflect the meta-game prior to their release/balance patch.

 

[Shaya]

Sheik 20.0 0.0 0.0
Zero Suit Samus 19.461817878345624 0.7083412959282812 0.5381821216543763
Rosalina 18.774364486364366 0.8695876112071437 0.6874533919812578
Ryu 17.95460904037351 1.1034916807257424 0.8197554459908574
Pikachu 17.856075629340097 1.0649474073601224 0.09853341103341151
Sonic 17.83475471599132 1.2688322783299946 0.02132091334877728
Fox 17.522019571019335 1.146462459375174 0.3127351449719846
Mario 17.508074451811055 1.1083278174918163 0.013945119208280232
Diddy Kong 17.426475989214143 0.9981915783159835 0.0815984625969115
Meta Knight 17.119121283178202 1.4885166612202623 0.30735470603594095
Villager 16.522428969842046 1.6144682102862735 0.5966923133361561
Cloud 16.499387688599406 1.6568287032990092 0.02304128124264082
Ness 16.38958776629948 1.5018015259346102 0.10979992229992419
Captain Falcon 15.162077187782712 1.76738878751238 1.2275105785167693
Yoshi 15.149474899951203 1.8927949574475773 0.012602287831509074
Luigi 14.268727229149354 1.995709026147045 0.8807476708018491
Dark Pit 13.887940016705794 2.1378838461430223 0.3807872124435594
Pit 13.882409599410671 2.307831976401824 0.005530417295123158
Peach 13.749434134704437 2.115315149504389 0.13297546470623445
R.O.B. 13.629221981017052 2.2206611809552625 0.12021215368738503
Wario 13.561936089234255 1.8977810549310454 0.06728589178279698
Toon Link 13.20445213442058 2.416485124756542 0.35748395481367545
Lucario 12.919183145917803 2.223515552002556 0.2852689885027768
Olimar 12.465346602670966 2.451778948001866 0.45383654324683675
Greninja 12.250340354189486 2.6331216411930702 0.21500624848147964
Ike 12.12398887199435 2.424739124133244 0.1263514821951368
Donkey Kong 11.7985010213517 2.2517595168140563 0.3254878506426486
Mega Man 11.412323508964375 2.1585196345681212 0.38617751238732545
Pac-Man 11.288464804855261 2.27829536253331 0.12385870410911437
Bowser 10.811241768538148 2.660209541990109 0.47722303631711327
Robin 10.169740945461355 2.7220832386060656 0.6415008230767931
Roy 9.287060082755486 3.2089033675430145 0.8826808627058682
Kirby 9.103679422043914 3.388036982549913 0.18338066071157222
Bowser Jr. 8.927930344443205 2.6708043337907794 0.17574907760070957
Mr. Game & Watch 8.717656764394082 2.4704262842853604 0.21027358004912244
Lucas 8.646334999841788 2.992825393385997 0.07132176455229455
Mewtwo 8.349228726342325 2.6655559215899585 0.2971062734994625
Falco 8.117338867636558 3.0257416558531354 0.23188985870576673
Wii Fit Trainer 8.080201459517964 2.673620918130408 0.03713740811859445
Shulk 7.754923102089094 2.925735894214979 0.32527835742886957
Marth 7.717410944682319 2.2367772623601256 0.03751215740677516
Link 7.468001062339 2.4740696672664675 0.2494098823433193
Duck Hunt Dog 7.184632866670256 3.110339944765941 0.2833681956687437
Little Mac 7.175724131323678 2.632764391979756 0.008908735346578212
Dr. Mario 7.142694080878768 2.437334373012408 0.0330300504449097
King Dedede 6.035962829807303 2.72109343103309 1.1067312510714649
Lucina 5.588750931466459 2.547071913216332 0.4472118983408446
Mii Brawler 5.005151752200901 2.9516085423942466 0.5835991792655575
Charizard 4.787324996720091 2.2547932747050576 0.21782675548080999
Palutena 4.779706008183027 2.1985436236312528 0.007618988537064553
Samus 4.123338140782771 1.9421981562451605 0.656367867400256
Mii Gunner 3.598828532506938 2.15331621980991 0.5245096082758329
Mii Swordsman 3.3170739380588454 2.0543135809698603 0.28175459444809237
Ganondorf 3.2346572531884514 1.67503820670707 0.082416684870394
Jigglypuff 2.786345164322064 2.034804544088282 0.4483120888663876
Zelda 1.9578928933388329 1.2593830415816278 0.8284522709832309

 

[Gunla]

Proposed tier list I constructed while getting this data with Shaya. Each tier is separated by values of 5, characters in order.
A+ = 52-50:
A = 48-45:
A- = 44-40:
B+ = 39-35:
B = 34-30:
B- = 29-25:
C+ = 24-20:
C = 19-15:
C- = 14-10:
D = 9-0:

 

[Shaya]

Rough separation by "point difference of character ahead is within the gap between the 'tier' above"

Spoiler

1: Sheik
2: Zero Suit Samus
3: Rosalina
4: Ryu, Pikachu, Sonic, Fox, Mario, Diddy Kong, Meta Knight
5: Villager, Cloud, Ness
6: Falcon, Yoshi
7: Luigi
8: Dark Pit, Pit, Peach, R.O.B, Wario
9: Toon Link
10: Lucario, Olimar, Greninja, Ike
11: Donkey Kong
12: Pac-Man, Megaman, Bowser
13: Robin
14. Roy, Kirby, Bowser Jr, Mr.G&W, Lucas, Mewtwo, Falco, Wii Fit Trainer
15. Shulk, Marth, Link
16. Duck Hunt, Little Mac, Dr. Mario
17: King Dedede, Lucina
18: Charizard, Palutena, Brawler
19: Samus
20: Gunner, Ganondorf, MiISword, Jigglypuff
21: Zelda

My drafting thoughts:

Top:
Sheik, Zero Suit Samus, Rosalina

High:
Ryu, Pikachu, Sonic, Fox, Mario, Diddy Kong, Meta Knight
Villager, Cloud, Ness, Falcon, Yoshi

Upper Mid?
Luigi, Dark Pit, Pit, Peach, R.O.B., Wario
Toon Link, Lucario, Olimar, Greninja, Ike, Donkey Kong
Pac-Man, Megaman, Bowser, Robin

Middle
Roy, Kirby, Bowser Jr, Mr.G&W, Lucas, Mewtwo, Falco, Wii Fit Trainer
Shulk, Marth, Link, Duck Hunt, Little Mac, Dr. Mario

Low
King Dedede, Lucina, Charizard, Palutena, Brawler, Samus
Gunner, Ganondorf, Swordsman, Jigglypuff, Zelda

My Option A:

S:
A:
B:

C:
D:
E:

Fiyaaaaa tier:
G:

H:
I:

----

Awkward spots: Yoshi/Falcon
Marth and Lucina being in separate 'tiers' would probably get complaints.

Alternatively Shulk line also joins low tier, 4 lines of Middle Tier (considering it's 24 characters in a patching game I would think it would look fine)?
Top drops to High, and Villager and Luigi lines become upper mid?

With a cast so big, it's hard to go with less tiers than we had in Brawl at like... any stage of it's existence. But we could...?
High could be squashed together, redistribute upper mid and mid to be 3 tiers or so rather than 5.

 

[M@v]

So personally, I absolutely love like the top 15 on this list, but hate like the rest of it lol. I guess that is to be expected though. Everyone's top tier were basically the same characters, just ordered different. Everyone's high, mid, and low tier votes were all over the place, so no one is going to be happy in particular probably LOL.

 

[Zigsta]

I think this list is pretty solid myself. I like you option A, Shaya. I think most people believe that the characters in B are definitely a bit better than C--so lumping them with mid tier seems odd.

 

[M@v]

Like, I have a lot of complaints with the lower tiers (Marth/lucina not together, doc over lucina, Kirby that low, Mewtwo that high, etc). But beggars can't be choosers.

 

[NickRiddle]

Like, I have a lot of complaints with the lower tiers (Marth/lucina not together, doc over lucina, Kirby that low, Mewtwo that high, etc). But beggars can't be choosers.

Marth is much better than Lucina though...

 

[Seagull Joe]

Did we even agree on tiers (Top/High/Mid/Low/Bottom)?

I don't remember any deliberation with that matter.

 

[Raziek]

The amount of 'OMG TOO SOON THERE'S A PATCH IN 2 DAYS' idiots is actually staggering, lmao.

 

[Gunla]

The amount of 'OMG TOO SOON THERE'S A PATCH IN 2 DAYS' idiots is actually staggering, lmao.

It's more of a place to start discussion than to define it.

Less of "they were x", and more of "we thought they were x in this patch, how are they now" stuff.

Relax, this is just the first one. I've also got something nice that I'll have up soon~

 

[---]

Didn't think we were releasing it today. Would have thought we'd all go over it one last time.

I think it's a solid list overall, but I'm guessing the next list will be handled differently from this one?

 

[Raziek]

I really think the labeling should have been done differently. There is no 'J tier' in this game

 

[Gunla]

Here's the visual version of v1.0!

 

[Marc]

With the deadline already having been extended, the patch announced for this week all of a sudden and SmashBoards getting hacked while we were working on things, we put priority on finishing up the release. All the gaps were taken from how people voted and the only things to poll the entire room (and outside voters?) on would have been relatively minor, not to mention it's tough to get a "quick" decision with 50+ voters and leaks are always a serious threat.

There are a lot of tiers, but there are also almost 60 characters and the average is over 5 characters per tier with not that many more tiers than Brawl. We easily could have had more due to the voting indicating multiple single character tiers, but we decided to not have those as a rule of thumb. All in all, I'd say this is a happy medium with results that were pretty hard to work with. The labels (Top to Bottom) are standard fare and the lettering is also straightforward.

We can't expect any individual to 100% agree (I don't either) and many people come into this with perspectives from other games, even previous Smash games. For example, many are hung up on the memory of what it meant to be low tier in Brawl, but this game is more balanced. At the same time, we see gaps in voting and by definition some characters have to be low or bottom tier. In Brawl we at some point had like 1/4 the cast in top tier despite at least half of them being rare in top 8 and it's hard to reverse that sort of standard.

Of course, we do intend to address common questions and complaints with a part 2 analysis article. We should always strive to improve the process and all feedback is taken seriously. If you notice any recurring question or remark or have one yourself, definitely post it here.

 

[Myran]

Once my computer is fixed I'll read all this and give my 2 cents. To inconvenient to try off my phone.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Would we be allowed to post our votes like in the brawl days?

 

[Shaya]

Would we be allowed to post our votes like in the brawl days?

Of course.

 

[Marc]

Yeah, it was specified in the release that we won't share the individual votes, but that voters are free to share their own (and just their own!).

 

[M@v]

I'll be honest, I don't like how Falcon/Yoshi were put in Mid Tier despite their numbers being in their own tier. But more importantly, I like this image I saw the best. It uses the lettering system rather than having a Top, High, Mid, Low, etc.

 

[Shaya]

People and their minuses!!!!

Eh, I'm probably partial towards such usages for the whole "argument" factor.
"Oh they're C tier" rather than "Mid tier" (and people being mad it isn't "C") does bug me a bit but it's not the end of the world.

Falcon/Yoshi is the eternal struggle.
If the the top quarter of the averages should be high tier, then it's probably a fair spot for them.
Having real distinction between Roy (B-) and Doctor Mario (C+) is something which is hard to make sense of considering the very stable rate at which one average proceeds the other.

In terms of those who like normal distributions; middle of the pack should be covering roughly 13.4 to 6.6* (or 12.8 to 5.2 given 20-2~ range).

However, more appropriately, with a cast of 56, middle middle grouping should be 21~ or so characters with up 38 chars around the center (this matches with us having Falcon up to Palutena as the "middle"). It starts to look hard to make things look nice being strict here.

 

[M@v]

Since the numbers for falcon and yoshi are off by themselves by a noticeable margin, I would just give them their own tier because the numbers say so

 

[Shaya]

Well they are in their own tier, we just put them in middle rather than high?

 

[M@v]

Oh yeah, I meant in regards of that letter list rather than the Top/High/mid format. Personally I have a hard time thinking of Yoshi/Falcon as "Mid" Tiers; it just doesn't sound right at all to me >.<

 

[Marc]

We considered having them as High Mid, but their own label on top of their own 2 character tier seemed extravagant and we also left Zelda with the other bad characters, for example. Top-High-Mid-Low-Bottom is still the core convention of Smash tier lists, so for the first one it seemed like the safest bet.

As stated before, we want to do a followup addressing common questions and complaints. So far questions regarding the new patch have been covered and we are looking for the best ways to update, but this is where we want to start digging a little deeper. Because most standard deviations are very high it seems regional differences are a better starting point than strictly taking the highest standard deviations, but we should probably at least address DLC. So yeah, anything you guys noticed/wonder/would like to say to the public?

 

[shrooby]

Please reiterate this since it can't be covered enough, honestly.

"A patch is coming in two days, this is dumb"

This project has been going on for a while and we knew a patch would be coming in shortly after it's release.
We were assuming mid February, but it mattered not - we wanted to be wrapped up in voting after Genesis and this was the case.

We can't predict the future, so a big patch may come soon and really throw this list on it's head.
That's fine. Although the likelihood of such an extreme impact is low...
The subtleties of changing opinion over time is not something we naturally notice, so even now looking back is difficult without references.
It's important that we start somewhere, and with this tier list we can place a bookmark on our progress so that we may better look ahead to the future. =)

The variance in placements across the 52 tallied votes was quite large; so of course the list may not match up with your own opinions, but we're happy with the averaged results. It may not perfectly represent 1.1.3 since December, but it represents a lot of the high level thought in the game covering this time period.

But now it's past tense instead of future.
This should've been stressed in the initial article much more than it was imho. It's basically why the tier list was made. (It's why lists are gonna be made in the future too.) And as many people as possible should know that.

 

[Marc]

Why did the 4BR release a tier list only a few days before a new patch?

A tier list isn’t created overnight and there is never a perfect time. We started creation of this first tier list back in December, on a build that left the majority of the cast relatively untouched and introduced only one new character. We ended up extending the process to include Genesis 3 as a case study and were already close to the final release when the announcement of the 1.1.4 patch happened.

We always knew that there were two more characters on the way, which we didn’t consider too major a problem in the sense that a tier list is a part of history that gets updated over time. Ideally, this would not have been the first list, but patches and major tournaments kept happening too quickly on short notice to find a period of relative stability.

Does the 1.1.4 patch invalidate the tier list?

For the most part, no. Most characters did not change significantly. It is too early to judge the impact Bayonetta and Corrin have on the metagame and we won’t have a major tournament to look at until Pound 2016 in April. The alternative to handling the tier list the way we did would have been postponing the project for multiple months, at which point we would have to consider postponing it further to include the onslaught of summer events.

Some excerpts from my current draft.

 

[Raziek]

It might be worthwhile to briefly address which characters benefited/suffered enough from the patch to potentially rise or drop a few spots:

Buffs: Falco, Marth/Lucina, Roy, Ike, Toon Link, Mac?
Nerfs: Bowser? (ZSS/Sheik/Rosa nerfs seem basically insignificant.)

 

[Marc]

Consider that done.