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You get no Sympathy in a "Fire Emblem Discussion"

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鉄腕
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I'd say that Ike as a character has changed enough to differ him from Chrom. Ike's much more muscular, bigger sword, both of their Aether's are different (Chrom's looks like Dancing Blade), different swordsmanship, outfits, Paris.

Call me a blind fanboy, but I really do think that IS has major soft spots for both Marth and Ike and I think that it played a major role in Chrom's design. That said I do think it'll come down to Marth/Ike 2.0 who may not offer much vs. an out-there character with a lot of potential, both of whom are fairly popular. Hense why I think it'll come down to movesets.
 

Diddy Kong

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What about version exclusives in this case? Roy for Wii U, and Chrom for the 3DS? Would make the most sence as Roy's Smash appearance started on the GCN a home console and Chrom came from a 3DS game so of coarse fans of Smash and Fire Emblem would want to see him in that version.

--- is right about Ike though. IS does seem to hold a soft spot for both Marth and Ike. Ike was especially a very well written character imo for what I expect from Fire Emblem. Marth just has a lot of continuation in the series, he keeps on coming back. Plus, nobody can picture Smash without Marth anymore.

And Chrom indeed feels like he was designed to be a sort of Ike2.0. The first thing I noticed about him is that his stance reminded me of Ike's Lord stance in Path of Radiance, somewhat.

Even though, I do think IS would push him above Roy, though... Sakurai was credited / thanked in the credits of Sword of Seals. It might be due to fandemand and Sakurai's personal choice that he'd chose Roy over him. But I don't see it as likely, otherwise he would've done his all to get Roy in Brawl, or put in back in Luigified instead of adding Ike.

Also, I'd want Ike to be more styled to his RD appearance. Maybe a mixed style of what he has in Brawl with both Ike's Hero and Vanguard designs? And having the Lord colors and armor details and the classic Ranger Ike as costumes.

Ike should also be able to jump out of his Quick Draw, but not like as in Project M :p but actually be able to do a jump strike after landing the hit (a regular jump just to go airwards) and be able to follow up with an aerial on landing. This seems more true to his fighting style in Fire Emblem and would give him a better sort of approach (plus safety). Aether's landing hit should also become much stronger, and Aether could look flashier.
 

Diddy Kong

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Vidz plz? :embarrass:

So basically, who's saying Chrom and who's saying Roy for the 3rd spot? Should we make movesets for both and try and argue which one is the best?
 

Reyson

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I still highly doubt Sakurai is going to have three blue-haired lords represent Fire Emblem, with two of them being muscle-heads. Chrom does not stand out.
So what you're saying is that three blue-haired lords is silly, but it totally makes sense when one of them is replaced by a brown-haired one? Should Roy get his spot based on his haircolour?
Roy may have his fiery sword, but Ike's use of axes and Chrom's use of lances are just as unique.

If the best Chrom has to offer is being "middle-of-the-road" (of which Ike has just as much the body-type to do), one of Chrom/Ike is definitely not going to get in.
Isn't that exactly what Roy has to offer? From what I've seen, most people place Roy as the middle-of-the-road character between Marth's elegant fencing and Ike's powerful berserker moves.

Vidz plz? :embarrass:

So basically, who's saying Chrom and who's saying Roy for the 3rd spot? Should we make movesets for both and try and argue which one is the best?
I don't even think there should be a third Fire Emblem character because it isn't that big of a franchise and even if there's a spot, there are plenty more interesting characters than 3 young male swordsmen. Fire Emblem has much more to it than just lords with swords.
 

ChronoBound

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Roy may have his fiery sword, but Ike's use of axes and Chrom's use of lances are just as unique..
Ike could use axes before Brawl, did not use any of them. Also, the Japanese Smash fanbase is pretty much thinking its either going to be Chrom or Ike in (with bitter flame wars that entails).
 

Reyson

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Ike could use axes before Brawl, did not use any of them. Also, the Japanese Smash fanbase is pretty much thinking its either going to be Chrom or Ike in (with bitter flame wars that entails).
Brawl Ike was clearly modeled after Path of Radiance, in which he couldn't use axes. He learns that ability when he becomes a Vanguard(Radiant Dawn).
 

ChronoBound

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Brawl Ike was clearly modeled after Path of Radiance, in which he couldn't use axes. He learns that ability when he becomes a Vanguard(Radiant Dawn).
They still could have given it to him. Lucas/Ness don't have the moves they do in their own games (they belong to Paula and Kumatora).
 
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I'm pretty sure Ike was added into Brawl before him using an axe even became a thing.
Yes, Radiant Dawn came before Brawl, but still. It seems his moveset was already decided by the time it came out.
 

SmashChu

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I'm pretty sure Ike was added into Brawl before him using an axe even became a thing.
Yes, Radiant Dawn came before Brawl, but still. It seems his moveset was already decided by the time it came out.
True, seeing as they planned the character in back in 2006.

Also, Chrom uses a different kind of weapon than Ike. Ike uses a broadsword which is much heavier, but Chrom's weapon is more like Marth's. With his strength and lighter weapon, he could easily play a more balanced role.

Sakurai wont cut a character to add another. The man added Lucas who used the same moveset as Ness. There is enough visually to distinguish Chrom and Ike. I don't think it's as much of a problem as people want to make it.
 

MasterMushroom

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Yeah, Chrom looked extremely similar to Ike early on. That he was originally planned to be an Ike 2.0 (much like Celice was a Marth 2.0), says it all. Chrom also has the ability to do Quick Draw btw.

The Roy re-design looks really good, and I have seen it get praised everywhere, with even people who are lukewarm about Roy saying they would definitely use him if he came back with his FE13 design.
Agreed, especially your previous post on the whole Ike or Chrom issue. I however was wondering about this for quite some time. Let's say, hypothetically; Chrom wasn't included (Marth and Ike stayed in the roster). And FE were to get a newcomer (other than Roy for argument's sake). Who would that be?

Like you said; it sounds a bit odd and maybe even unlikely that he'll add 3 Blue-haired Swordsmen. So that doesn't help Sigurd at all; who supposedly had major support back then. Not only that; there would also be the issue of making his move-set/abilities unique and different enough to stand out from the other 2 (as a sword user). On the flip-side, if people wanted a lance user so much; why not promote Ephraim? It's a complicated conundrum if you ask me.

If there's going to be a FE newcomer; there's a chance it might be from Awakening's new characters. Furthermore; most of the old FE cast members make an appearance in the game via DLC and Spot-Pass. So the question stands; is it possible to even predict who at this point would be the newcomer? Assuming Chrom loses the chance thanks to Ike's solid popularity and image of the international poster-boy.
 

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but Chrom's weapon is more like Marth's.
That's because it's the exact same weapon.

Ironically Radiant Dawn was announced at the same time as Brawl, so it's a good guess that Ike was one of the first newcomers planned/added. The thing that gets me though is that several other Wii games announced at the time such as Galaxy didn't get content in Brawl unlike Radiant Dawn (which technically came out after Galaxy), maybe IS is a lot more open to Sakurai than even we give them credit for?
 

ChronoBound

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That's because it's the exact same weapon.

Ironically Radiant Dawn was announced at the same time as Brawl, so it's a good guess that Ike was one of the first newcomers planned/added. The thing that gets me though is that several other Wii games announced at the time such as Galaxy didn't get content in Brawl unlike Radiant Dawn (which technically came out after Galaxy), maybe IS is a lot more open to Sakurai than even we give them credit for?
Radiant Dawn was released in February 2007 in Japan, almost a year before Brawl's Japanese release date (late January 2008).

By comparison, Super Mario Galaxy was not released anywhere until November 2007.

Finally, in the game's coding, considering where Ike was listed, Ike was one of the final characters added (though he was added before Jigglypuff, Toon Link, Sonic, and Wolf were).
 

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Oops, I misread the release dates, my bad then, ignore my ramblings. I don't think the coding matters all that much except for the last 3 newcomers given their own individual circumstances.
 

DarkAres

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I'm personally rooting for three FE reps. Marth remains, we get one of Ike or Krom (Krom if he's well-received in the English release of Awakening, Ike otherwise), and a third more unique rep. My personal choice for the unique rep is Anna; she's got the recurring role, and despite having a sword I'm fairly certain that being a Trickster will give her a more unique style. Plus she could whip out a staff for blunt attacks as well or status moves on her Specials. Kind of like Mewtwo had, but more effective. A Silence Staff move could be so awesome; seal off the ability for the opponent to use any B move (barring Up B given it's needed for recovery). Or a Berserk Staff move that makes the opponent instantly use a Smash attack. You could use it from a range to sort of delay their movement (if someone else is after them) or make them attack a Bob-Omb or something. Very...tricky. You know, because she's a Trickster?

I also wouldn't entirely mind Micaiah; I'm sure she'd be fun to play, but I didn't care for her personality wise.

Lyn I think is a bit too dated, but I'd like her.

Roy I plain don't like; he's so bland in Sealed Sword personality wise, and he's not much better statistically.

Sigurd or Lief could work given spears and the fact that being DLC in Awakening will take away the "Japan only" issue that plagues them. They also have that huge popularity, but are still dated.

 

Diddy Kong

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I'm pretty sure Ike was added into Brawl before him using an axe even became a thing.
Yes, Radiant Dawn came before Brawl, but still. It seems his moveset was already decided by the time it came out.
This.

Btw, Ike could also not use Ragnell in his Ranger form.

I don't think it's very likely Awakening will NOT be greatly received in the US and EU due to it's succes in Japan. Fastest selling FE since FE3, and that's saying a lot (FE3 is one of Japan's most favorite games iirc). So yes, based on that I think Chrom is a lot better choice than Roy. Now including him vs Ike is another story... Unfortunately. :c (loves Ike)

Anna is not a good choice. She's almost a generic unit in Awakening, but this one Anna is playable (there are a LOT of Anna's in Awakening). But she does at least deserve a throphy imo. Fire Emblem needs more trophies.

Micaiah won't make it in if Ike's not in it. She'd be cool to have though, but if we'd include a side-character perhaps Shiida / Sheeda / Caeda (just how many names does she have?) would be a better choice. A pegagus knight would be very interessting so to say.

Leaf's iconic weapon is still a sword though, and so is Sigurd. They COULD use spears or lances in their moveset though, but then again so could Chrom.

Chrono, could you post that list in which order the characters where added please? It's interessting to see where Sakurai's priorities are so to say. Though one thing only mathers here and that's the fact that Ike got prioritised over Roy. This likely means that Lucario is likelier to return than Mewtwo as well though.
 

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I realize Anna is not the most popular FE character, but given the way the series is laid out in different continents, I feel she is the best way to represent all the continents. Kind of like Gilgamesh in Final Fantasy.

Plus even if she doesn't have a special "Lord" class, I've seen movesets based around Class Change for her. And really...most of the Lord classes aren't even that special. Marth just wields a sword and gets a special one. Ike is basically a Hero with a sword that shoots blasts (though said function was not even worked into the game). Even Roy's Sealed Sword wasn't used as anything more than a sword with a fire after-effect in Melee. I don't think Anna being a non-special class makes her any less likely given the above.

And Micaiah is still a main character of her own game, so there's no reason she shouldn't be in without Ike. Granted the mercenary lord got a lot of attention in RD a well, but Micaiah was the first mage main character (unless the girl from FE2 counts) and has both Light and Dark magic to rely on (because for some reason RD thinks they are one element). If we're going to get Krom, he's going to be like Ike. And Tellius was a popular continent, so why not represent it with Micaiah if Ike is cut? She's not a side-character. Mind you, I think between two important roles in both PoR and RD, we could see Elincia as well. She at least seems a more likely Pegasus Knight rep than Sheeda (who's little more than a love-interest and recruiting-machine in her games).

Honestly I'm hoping for Marth, Ike, and Anna myself.

 

Diddy Kong

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Anna just won't do. With her small lackluster role as a playable unit finally after 13 installments shouldn't make her worth of being added as a playable character. I don't get this 'logic' people use for Fire Emblem anyway, and it's "need" even to HAVE a female character. We need nothing, only the best characters. Sure I suppose you could hold a sweet spot for Lyn due to FE7, but even she seems really unlikely. Hope and pray for Lucina to become mad popular in the US and EU, then MAYBE a girl FE character stands a chance. I think the best characters possible should get in, with the most unique styles. Anna just doesn't cut it so to say, and she's even a generic character sort of due to just how many Annas are walking around in FE13...

Micaiah is even worse than Lyn actually in her role. Sure you are SUPPOSED to BELIEVE she's the lord of FE:RD... In Part 1. Reality is: when Ike starts showing up his face the game litterally becomes PoR2.0, but with worse hitmechanics. :smirk: Also, Micaiah up to the start of Part 4 is playable in like, 11~12 chapters or so? Then, her bird aka the once thought 'Goddess of Destruction' completely takes over her role. She's not only overshadowed by Ike, but also by Yune in this regard.

Conclusion: it's either Lucina for a female rep or nobody. Though be not distressed, Marth will surely be as feminine as ever.
 

Aipom

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I'm assuming that Fire Emblem will get three slots in SSB4. If it does, I would hope that whoever gets added can bring something new to the table. I know alot of the characters are swordsmen, but they don't have to play the same. Melee Marth & Roy were too similar in my opinion. Brawl Marth and Ike were different enough to please me.
 

Curious Villager

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Gosh I really need to start playing this series. There are too many characters who I find looking pretty cool for smash. Guess i'll have to wait for Fire Emblem Awakening for the 3DS then.

I do hope they get more slots though instead of only limited to two. And as much as I don't mind sword users. I would like to see some other weapon users too from this series. :)
 

Aipom

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I'm not a huge fan of sword-users, but I do recognize their importance in the gaming community. I think someone who used a different weapon from this series would be cool, but if the sword is their primary weapon, atleast make sure they utilize it differently from other sword-users
 

DarkAres

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Oh I don't care if the character is male or female. In fact, I'd rather not have Lucina in given that...well, she goes around being Marth. If that's not an obvious cue for a clone character, I don't know what is.

And "worthy of being playable" is debatable. Just look at some of the characters right now; not a lot fit my idea of "worthy". And ultimately, we all have our own takes on what makes a character worthy or not. None of us can honestly say we know how Sakurai decides, after all. In my books, Anna is worthy. Micaiah is worthy (even is she is avatar'd for the important parts of the game, she still holds importance imo. I don't even like her and I know that she is as "worthy" as pretty much any main FE character).

And this whole "more sword users" things is kind of annoying to hear. Even using the same type of sword, people can be made to fight uniquely. Add in different swords to the mix and it's even better. We've got at least half the cast relying on their fists and feet, but adding a fifth sword user is the problem? Bah.

tl;dr I
don't want Anna to get in because she's female. I want her to get in because she's like a FE tradition, could play well, and I just plain like her.
Micaiah also holds importance (even if not as much as Ike) and has a real playable shot.
Lucina could too easily be a Marth clone, so I don't want her in

 

Aipom

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And this whole "more sword users" things is kind of annoying to hear. Even using the same type of sword, people can be made to fight uniquely. Add in different swords to the mix and it's even better. We've got at least half the cast relying on their fists and feet, but adding a fifth sword user is the problem? Bah.

That's what I was trying to emphasize, I just want the new representative to fight and handle uniquely from the other; that's all :)
 

DarkAres

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That's what I was trying to emphasize, I just want the new representative to fight and handle uniquely from the other; that's all :)
I know, I know. Sorry if I came off as aggressive. It just...asdfasfs I wish more people could understand that sword=/=clone
 

Aipom

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True. Alot of people, just like I used to, think all swords will attack the same way. This is possible, but just as much so as punching & kicking.

A common fear is that the developers would get lazy & just make all swordusers super similar. However, I have some faith that another Fire Emblem character could be added without being a clone
 

Diddy Kong

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Namco made Soul Calibur, I wouldn't be affraid of sword users being too similar. Hence why I'd like to discuss Fire Emblem character possibilities.
 
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I don't see Ike AND Chrom getting on the roster. They are both pretty similar. Even though Chrom would be kind of like Marth as well. I think Chrom would be in since he is more recent and Awakening is a big game.

I also see Micaiah because she is recent in Radiant Dawn, plays a big role in that game, popular, a female character which Fire Emblem should have, a different class type in a mage, and she was the first lead in the class.

Micaiah is the second most popular female in Japan, from what I have heard. Only beaten by Lucina. She is a Marth clone type character though, so I don't see her.

So the roster should be:

-Marth (Shadow Dragon & Heroes of Light and Shadow/DS/ Light Sword User)
-Micaiah (Radiant Dawn/Wii/Mage)
-Chrom (Awakening/3DS/Semi-Heavy Sword User)

DLC: Awakening Lyn (Awakening/3DS/Double Sword User)
 

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Sorry but Radiant Dawn isn't recent anymore. It's old news now. It came out long before Brawl came out in Japan (2007). The recent games (post-Brawl) are Shadow Dragon, New Mystery of the Emblem, and Awakening now.
 
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Sorry but Radiant Dawn isn't recent anymore. It's old news now. It came out long before Brawl came out in Japan (2007). The recent games (post-Brawl) are Shadow Dragon, New Mystery of the Emblem, and Awakening now.
Still recent as in past generation, and if you look at the last three Smash Bros games, you can pretty much tell they pull heavly from the past generation. The Wii and DS in SSB4's case. Some current will be there (3DS and potentially Wii U) and of course retro.

The original roster was mainly SNES and Gameboy, with some N64. Melee's roster was mainly N64 and Gameboy Color, with some GBA. Brawl's roster was mainly Gamecube and GBA, with some DS. Returning and Retro excluded.

That means Radiant Dawn has just as much of a chance to get repped as either of Marth's games or Awakening. Especially since Micaiah is one of Japan's most popular female reps and she is still around as Awakening DLC.
 

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Micaiah could've been in Brawl, but IS told Sakurai Ike instead. As far as I'm aware, Sakurai asked them what character he should add to Brawl, and they told him Ike. Micaiah was in existance, and it could've been similar to Roy, in that her being included on the roster was prior to her game being released, but they didn't pick her. They picked Ike. I don't think she's got the popularity to boost her to anything other than maybe an AT or just a regular trophy now, either.
 

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Micaiah could've been in Brawl, but IS told Sakurai Ike instead. As far as I'm aware, Sakurai asked them what character he should add to Brawl, and they told him Ike. Micaiah was in existance, and it could've been similar to Roy, in that her being included on the roster was prior to her game being released, but they didn't pick her. They picked Ike. I don't think she's got the popularity to boost her to anything other than maybe an AT or just a regular trophy now, either.
How do you know Micaiah was in existence two years before her game came out? Further more, even if she was, how do you know she was in a state finalized enough to be implemented in Smash?
 

ChronoBound

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How do you know Micaiah was in existence two years before her game came out? Further more, even if she was, how do you know she was in a state finalized enough to be implemented in Smash?
Well I heard that development for Radiant Dawn started shortly after Path of Radiance was released in Japan (which was April 2005). However, there is no way to know how many details for FE10 were determined by the time Sakurai approached Intelligent Systems about who the Fire Emblem newcomer for Brawl should be.

I have said that if Sakurai began development for Brawl in October 2006 as opposed to October 2005, maybe Micaiah would have gotten in over Ike (or we would have gotten Radiant Dawn Ike).
 

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How do you know Micaiah was in existence two years before her game came out? Further more, even if she was, how do you know she was in a state finalized enough to be implemented in Smash?
I guess that's fair, but Radiant Dawn was revealed at E3 2006. The trailer featured Micaiah, so she at least existed and was somewhat finalized by early May of that year, which was two years before Brawl was released in 2008. Sonic was one of the last additions to the Brawl roster, as far as I'm aware, and that was in 2007. It's also generally thought that characters such as Wolf, Toon Link, etc were the last ones added to the roster, then they were still developing it as late at 2007. None of this says when the new Fire Emblem character slot in Brawl was determined, but it's always possible that after deciding Ike, IS could've gone back to Sakurai and said, "Hey, we actually want you to include this other character Micaiah, instead of Ike." Since she did exist that far back, and Ike wasn't revealed as playable until late-ish 2007.
 

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Micaiah supporters should know, that if Ike's cut, why the heck should she be added in? It's like... cutting Marth, but adding Shiida lolz. Even though I suppose she COULD be nice, don't see it as likely in any way actually. Also, what kind of moves should she have as her regular attacks anyway?

People seem to forget Radiant Dawn is actually Ike's second time as a main character. When he pops up in the story, it's basically all about him from that point on.
 

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Well I heard that development for Radiant Dawn started shortly after Path of Radiance was released in Japan (which was April 2005). However, there is no way to know how many details for FE10 were determined by the time Sakurai approached Intelligent Systems about who the Fire Emblem newcomer for Brawl should be.

I have said that if Sakurai began development for Brawl in October 2006 as opposed to October 2005, maybe Micaiah would have gotten in over Ike (or we would have gotten Radiant Dawn Ike).
Yeah, it's possible she existed in some rough early form, all I was trying to say is it shouldn't be treated as fact that she definitely was, or was a viable candidate at the time when IS suggested Ike to Sakurai.

And I agree, if development had happened even a year later, I believe Micaiah probably would've had a real shot at being the new FE rep.

I guess that's fair, but Radiant Dawn was revealed at E3 2006. The trailer featured Micaiah, so she at least existed and was somewhat finalized by early May of that year, which was two years before Brawl was released in 2008. Sonic was one of the last additions to the Brawl roster, as far as I'm aware, and that was in 2007. It's also generally thought that characters such as Wolf, Toon Link, etc were the last ones added to the roster, then they were still developing it as late at 2007. None of this says when the new Fire Emblem character slot in Brawl was determined, but it's always possible that after deciding Ike, IS could've gone back to Sakurai and said, "Hey, we actually want you to include this other character Micaiah, instead of Ike." Since she did exist that far back, and Ike wasn't revealed as playable until late-ish 2007.
Yes, it's true that Sonic wasn't added until much later than the majority of the roster, but let's be honest, Micaiah is no Sonic. Sakurai wouldn't shift his whole development schedule to accommodate a FE character that hadn't even seen release yet when he had 2/3 perfectly good FE characters already planned.

As for TL, Jiggs, and Wolf, it's probably pretty likely all were on a rough draft of the roster at some point and were either cut then re-added or were among the closest to be cut. However, all of them existed prior to Brawl even being announced, and all had established popularity when Sakurai was creating the roster, so they wouldn't really be comparable to an unproven character who would most likely need a completely new moveset (unless she'd be a clone of like... Zelda or something), that would disrupt development to be added.

All I'm saying is that the main part of Brawl's roster development happened too early for Micaiah, and SSB4s is happening too late, which effectively eliminates Micaiah's chances at this point, which I think is a shame, considering she would've been an interesting character had circumstances been a little different.
 

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Nah I don't think Micaiah was ever really likely. She isn't even a main lord really, just required in the story. Ike is still the main character of Radiant Dawn. And for good reasons. He's awesome. Micaiah might be an interessting idea, but I doubt a FE Mage character would ever be playable. Just hoping for a second coming of a Hector-like lord, or some Ephraim-like, so we ever might get to see lances and axes in Smash.

Besides, Micaiah would probably not ever be chosen above Roy if they where to take a 3rd spot for Fire Emblem. And during RD's development, I think it's pretty much a 100% given that they planned on having Ike return right from the start. So Ike was a natural choice.
 
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Nah I don't think Micaiah was ever really likely. She isn't even a main lord really, just required in the story. Ike is still the main character of Radiant Dawn. And for good reasons. He's awesome. Micaiah might be an interessting idea, but I doubt a FE Mage character would ever be playable. Just hoping for a second coming of a Hector-like lord, or some Ephraim-like, so we ever might get to see lances and axes in Smash.

Besides, Micaiah would probably not ever be chosen above Roy if they where to take a 3rd spot for Fire Emblem. And during RD's development, I think it's pretty much a 100% given that they planned on having Ike return right from the start. So Ike was a natural choice.
Micaiah is as likely as Roy and Lyn. She was the lord at the beginning of Radiant Dawn and comes back to team up alongside Ike.

I find it funny that people don't find Micaiah relevant enough anymore yet they pick Lyn and Roy, who are not even as relevant as her, because they go the popularity route (which Micaiah is in as well).

Not guaranteeing her, but she shouldn't be counted out.
 

N3ON

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Micaiah is as likely as Roy and Lyn. She was the lord at the beginning of Radiant Dawn and comes back to team up alongside Ike.

I find it funny that people don't find Micaiah relevant enough anymore yet they pick Lyn and Roy, who are not even as relevant as her, because they go the popularity route (which Micaiah is in as well).

Not guaranteeing her, but she shouldn't be counted out.
As far as being as likely as Lyn, probably not, it's perhaps possible, but either way it's pretty much a moot point, as neither has a chance at being included. As likely as Roy? lol.

If Sakurai wants to go with the relevant route, he will choose Chrom, not Micaiah, and if he wants to go with the popularity route, he will choose the most popular FE character not in Brawl, Roy (who is miles ahead of any other potential FE character Smash-popularity-wise in Japan). If he goes to IS again, chances are they will give him the character that best promotes the most recent (Chrom) or future FE game, both not being Micaiah. Micaiah isn't going to be playable, she should be counted out.
 
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As far as being as likely as Lyn, probably not, it's perhaps possible, but either way it's pretty much a moot point, as neither has a chance at being included. As likely as Roy? lol.

If Sakurai wants to go with the relevant route, he will choose Chrom, not Micaiah, and if he wants to go with the popularity route, he will choose the most popular FE character not in Brawl, Roy (who is miles ahead of any other potential FE character Smash-popularity-wise in Japan). If he goes to IS again, chances are they will give him the character that best promotes the most recent (Chrom) or future FE game, both not being Micaiah. Micaiah isn't going to be playable, she should be counted out.
But why though? There really isn't nothing against her that can;t be said about the others. She is basically in the top 5 to get a chance to get in.
 

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My top 5 would probably be like this:

1) Chrom
2) Roy
3) Lucina
4) Shiida
5) Lyn
/ Hector (I'd wish...)

Though Roy is indeed extremely irrelevant, he's also extremely popular and requested a lot. Also, a much easier addition as a Luigified Marth clone, if he even would come that far. As he could also be added in as a last minute Marth clone, which is why I rank him higher than say, Lucina, who is basically in the same boat (could and probably should also be a Marth clone).

I don't know about Micaiah honestly. I like her enough, even though she starts out really weak in Radiant Dawn and takes serious effort to make good. But I don't see a Mage character enter Smash as easily as a weapon character.

Lyn is up there on spot nr.5 cause she was an Assist Trophy in Brawl. Shiida is ranked a bit higher cause of FE1/FE3/remakes are about as 'classic' as it can get Fire Emblem wise, and Pegasus Knights imo are a bit more iconic to the series than even Mages. Plus, the playstyle would be totally unique, and gives them a reason to do somewhat more with aerial battles besides adding in the infamous Ridley.
 
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