Want to know when a certain pokemon will appear? (Research:059%; New behavioral info)

[itsameSMB]

Added the proper format template files! Get testing if you wanna help!
*WARNING: LENGTHY TOPIC AND POSSIBLE SLIGHT SPOILERS!*​

With Brawl finally out and me with a lot of time on my hands, I've decided to research the "behavior" of pokeballs and the likelyhood of certain pokemon appearing at certain times. It goes far beyond the probability percentage of each pokemon appear (although that is one of the goals of this study. For the tests, I set the items to high and all pokemon and do a Stock match of at least 50 stock to ensure I get a lot of information. I also have 2 low-level CPU players playing to see if different players will get different pokemon at a given time or in a given "order" (the low level is to prolong the match so that more pokeballs can be cracked open). I've only chosen battlefield so far, but one I do enough tests there, say 50-100, I'll do it on some other stages. Here's some of the the theories I formed:

NOTE: Almost all of these ideas gave been proven false. I just keep them here to take up space and because I'm lazy. Please don't tell me you saw a manaphy before a reward pokemon, I am very much aware now that it can be the case.​

1) The velocity (not speed) at which the pokeball is thrown, as well as the region of the stage it actives on has an effect on the pokemon it spawns/summons. Also some legendary pokemon have a better chance of appearing in different regions of the stage (I have yet to see a Mew, Manaphy, Celebi, or Jirachi appear on anything but the base platform on battlefield).
2) Certain pokemon may be more likely to spawn if the pokeball used to summon it is used as a weapon or reciprocated (caught and then used by the catcher).
3) There is a value that goes up or down everytime a pokemon appears (based on the pokemon) that affects the chance that a rare or legendary pokemon may appear.
4) A Manaphy will not appear until Mew, Celebi, or Jerichi [possible incorrect spelling] have appeared in the same match first. NOTE: Though it was not in one of my test matches, I noticed after about 15 pokeballs, none of them legendary (I think), a Manaphy appeared. Don't bet on it happening to you, though.
5) At the beginning of a match the following things are decided by the game: the two "MVPs" (most viewed pokemon, which are the most common pokemon in a match. Some pokemon, as well as all legendary/rare pokemon, are exempt from becoming this), the "probable improbability" (the most likely rare pokeball-related event to happen in a match, including, but not limited to: Mew/Celebi/Jerichi[sic]/Manaphy appearing, an Electrode having a delayed explosion, etc.), and the "Duo Doubles" (the pokemon mostly likely to appear consecutively or constantly, especially after another consectivley or constantly summoned pokemon, i.e. Gulpin and Meowth. Not to be confused with MVPs.), among other things.
6) In a long-term pokemon match, pokeballs summons in "cycles". These cycles are not set in stone or even very well defined, but certain patterns as well as legendary apperances will appear a set amount of times in a cycle (you probably will not see one of the four rarest pokemon, especially manaphy, in the same cycle). A new cycle might be indicated by the appearance of a pre-determined pokemon. From what I've gathered, if cycles do exist, Deoxys is definitely one of these "indicator pokemon".
7) Cycles are never repeated exactly, nor is the same type of cycle used twice in a row. However, once a cycle ends, the new cycle may just mimic a cycle from a previous match.
8) Similar to stale moves, if a player uses pokeballs over and over, without some else using a pokemon or the said player not getting KO'ed or doing anything but using pokeballs, the quality of the pokemon they spawn will generally deteriorate (save for one or two legendary summons. Remember, I said in general, not completely).
9) The costume of a character may have an exceedingly slight but affective nonetheless influence on what pokemon appears (it may be just a coincidence, but on one of my tests, I did the costume one former to the costume usualy used for P2 [computer-controlled], and it was almosty entirely different from the usually spawns).
10) I have yet to test it, but the stage the match is played on effects the pokemon that appears on it (i.e. more variety on Pokemon Stadium, rarer pokemon at Spear Pillar, and pokemon with shorter on-screen time at WarioWare, Inc.).

Maybe all this research is futile, but the pokemon spawns are far from random. I've only done a few tests so far and I'm already noticing some trends. So please don't say "this is stupid/pointless, the pokemon are determined randomly".

At the time I posted this, I have conducted about 5 tests, so these ideas are little more than conjectural. However, as I do more research, I'll post it here and update my theories. If you would like to help me out, even by providing an instance that you've experienced that agrees or disagrees with my findings, I'd love to here it on this thread or in a PM. Also, if you think that this pursuit is something worthwhile, please post here. You have no idea how important that kind of motivation would be. I also encourage you to propose any ideas or theories you have here and discuss them, but please be prepared to say why (and by that I mean anything besides something along the lines of "because" or "I don't know".

If you actually read all of that, I thank you and I hope all of my observation will be able to be integrated into the already amazing strategies on this site. Happy smashing!

 

[itsameSMB]

Since I can't get rid of these posts, I guess I'll use them.

Theories
:bigthumbu:=confirmed =debunked =plausble/more info needed =untested​

Pokeballs can get "stale" after constant, uninterupted use.
Manaphy will not appear before a Mew, Celebi, or Jerichi.
The velocity a pokeball is thrown affects its contents.
Some pokemon are likely to appear more in certain areas of the stage.
A certain character is more likely to get a certain pokemon than others.
The stage a pokeball is used on has an effect on the pokeball cycle.
Pokeballs work in "cycles" that consist of a vague number of patterns.
Reciprocated pokeballs may change their contents.
Some pokemon are more likely to appear when the pokeball hits a player.
Manaphy is more likely to appear in 1-on-1 scenarios as opposed to 1v1v1 or 1v1v1v1.
A cycle may be influenced by the amount of damage or KOs done by pokemon.
The less non-pokeball activity there is, the less variety there between pokemon.
Most legendary pokemon will only spawn in certain regions of the stage.
Electrodes and Togepis diminish in prevalence as a cycle goes on.
Manaphy will only appear after at least one legendary pokemon does.
Pokeballs can become "stale" for a player if their only actions are pokeball use and hog the pokeballs.
Rare/legendary pokemon are more likely to apear when a character is on stand-by for a final smash.
Celebi will only appear when no other npc pokemon are onstage and after a hiatius of attacking (you know, "times of peace").
The closer to an edge a pokeball is thrown, the better the pokemon it will yield (not legendary, though).
An assist trophy may reset or disrupt a pokeball cycle when activated.

I'll add more when I either think of them or feel like it.

My statistics:​

:item9: Pokeballs recorded: 13,019
:bumper: Tests conducted: 29 (and 1/2) out of 50
:heart: Stocks set: 2,406

 

[itsameSMB]

Definition of terms

These are some of the terms I will use when I finally get around to explaining my methods when I have enough data to back them up. Just to clarify, I may have used a term incorrectly according to pokemon [or perhaps even Smash] terminology, but for the purpose of explaining the method, they will do, so please don't complain about them. Oh, and the terms are subject to change.

"Stray" pokemon/Exception
A pokemon that did not appear during an orthodox sequence. For all intents and purposes, these are single-pokemon sequences. They can interrupt longer sequences, but rarely do (the sequences continue on as usual).

Combination
A very brief sequence of pokemon that lasts about 2-4 pokeballs. They mostly act as links between larger sequences and are sometimes accompanied by strays.

Pattern
A short sequence of pokemon that last about 5-8 pokeballs. Usually preceeded and proceeded by "combinations". Prediction of the pokemon in these according to my method are usually about 66.6% accurate for 2/3rds of the pokemon.

Procession
A moderate-length sequence of pokemon that last about 9-14 pokeballs. It is very unlikely that you will be able to predict the exact pokemon here, so it'd be smarter to try to predict the range of pokemon that will appear.

Parade
A lengthy procession of pokemon that lasts 15 pokeballs or more. They are either very easy to predict or impossibly hard, depending on the pokemon it consists of. Very uncommon.

Cycle
The sequence of pokemon/pokeball sequences that usually go on for more than 200 pokeballs. Each cycle has an approximate maximum number of times sequences, both individually and (more strongly enforced) generally. No cycle is repeated twice in a row, nor in the same match, but over time you will notice similarites in the cycles of pokeballs. If they exist, cycles could be the key to predicting pokemon spawns in brawl.

Chemistry/relationship
The chance of a certain pokemon appearing after another one. There are multiple levels of relationships, and they are not communitive (can't be switched around). From worst to best, they are: archrival, rival, enemy, annoyance, stranger(neutral), acquaintance, friend, best friend, partner.

"Legendary" Pokemon
Special pokemon that do not appear as often as other pokemon. This includes: Groudon, Kyogre, Moltres, Entei, Suicune, Ho-Oh, Luiga, Latias, Latios, Deoxys, Manaphy, Mew, Celebi, and Jirachi. I don't like to make exceptions, but Togepi could be considered an "honorary" legendary pokemon (sort of like how y is sometimes a vowel).

"Omega" pokemon
Pokemon that mark the beginning of a new (full) cycle by appearing near or at the begining of it. Please note that the first few pokemon that appear at the beginning of a match are not always omega pokemon. They are usually strays or part of a combination.

"Alpha" pokemon
Like omega pokemon, only they mark the beginning of a procession or parade. A pokemon can both an alpha and omega pokemon (not THAT alpha an omega, before any of you comment on it), but it usually is not the case.

"Reward" pokemon
(named by the recommendation of etrain911) The three inconcievably rare pokemon that grant you collectables. They are Mew, Celebi, and Jirachi, and they give CDs, trophies, and stickers respectively. Unless you see one within, say, your first 150 pokeballs in a match, you can pretty much give up on one appearing (not impossible, just very, very, very improbable after that).

"Directional" pokemon
Pokemon that appear facing either left or right and cannot be turned around. The two that I can remember off-hand are Chikorita and Piplup.

"Garbage"/"trash" pokemon
Bottom-of-the-barrel pokemon who, well, really aren't that great when they appear. They tend to appear often, but often doen't equal garbage. The garbage pokemon include Goldeen(obviously), Gardevoir, Gulpin, Bonsly, Wobbuffet, Electrode, and Munchlax.

"Likely" pokemon
Pokemon that, for a single round, have a higher tendency than normal to appear.

"Lucky" pokemon
Pokemon who, for a single round, appear more than others from the same classification do. Some examples would be Entei from legendary, Munchlax from garbage, and Celebi from reward. Just because a pokemon is "lucky" doesn't mean it's "likely", just more prevailent among its group.

 

[itsameSMB]

Downloads and Contribution Log

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Official online contributions​

Xtreme Starfox: Participated in two official online tests to date.
Tsuteto: Participated in one official online test to date.

Official offline contributions​

Unfortunely, someone has yet to send me a research log in the proper format...

 

[Cheezball]

Nice job, you broke a rule by quadruple posting. Why are you posting this "reserved for future use" every minute? Read the rules please.

I was liking it, until I saw the 3 spam posts. Good first post.

 

[itsameSMB]

Aw geez, sorry. I'll try to delete them posthaste

 

[sir bert leaman]

You know, this does sound very likely. I remember in Melee, in the Legendary Pokemon event match, 2 legendaries would emerge and then a Wobufet. I always assumed that was just set that way for the match but perhaps it was partially due to a cycle being set for pokemon appearances. I'll be interested to see where your research goes. Well done.

 

[itsameSMB]

Oh boy, I'm such a dunce...

Ugh, i'm such an idiot. How do I delete the 3 spam posts by myself with editing (because when I just delete all the text it says it's too short of a message and there isn't a delete button) or can I ask a moderator that isn't a moderator on this board (since the ones that are currently are all offline) to delete them for me? Mock me if you must while you answer my question.

 

[0RLY]

I appreciate the effort, but I don't play with items much anyways. =P

 

[Ørion]

I never knew that you could change which pokemon would appear by different scenarios, I just assumed it was completely random...hmm keep us posted on your research please,

 

[PhillipthaGoober]

Good job finding that out

 

[Chaosblade77]

I figured it was just a percentage. I tend to get a ton of Gulpins, quite a few Meowths and Wobufets, and anything else seems either uncommon or really rare.

I've had Mew once. Never had any of the other 3 "rare" ones, and I have only had a couple legendary pokemon. The legendary gerbil of water and fire once each, Lugia (sp) and Ho-oh once each, only the legendary fire bird (starts with an M) maybe three times?

Others like that penguin that pushes you off the stage and the bird that creates the fire storm (Torchik?) come only somewhat often, but not nearly as often as Gulpin. I tend to get that one like 2-3 times in a row.

 

[Generic]

This looks interesting and I hope to see some more development later.

BTW, I believe I saw a manaphy without one of the other three (the "item-dropping" ones) pokemon appearing first in that game. I had also never seen a Jirachi spawn if that has any significance.

 

[Urser]

It's random.

 

[itsameSMB]

This looks interesting and I hope to see some more development later.

BTW, I believe I saw a manaphy without one of the other three (the "item-dropping" ones) pokemon appearing first in that game. I had also never seen a Jirachi spawn if that has any significance.

Thanks for your support, guys! It means a lot.

Anyway, the Manaphy-after-Mew theory is officially debunked. I started a new test with 80 stock and Manaphy appeared 10 pokeballs before Mew did. This is not to say it did not come after a rare pokemon, since Ho-Oh spawned from the 37th pokeball (I threw the pokeball so yay for me), which was way before Manaphy. Thanks for your input nonetheless!

As for Jirachi, I'd say that if you do an all-pokeball, high-item, 75+ stock brawl, you will almost always see all 31.5 (the .5 represents when electrode has a delayed explosion). If not, you'll definitely see a lot of rare pokemon!

 

[Tonyman]

Very interesting, but i see a mistake, in Fact #4, manaphy may appear even if any of those other three pokes havent appeared, i've seen it :S

anyways, i really dont find this guide of much use for me since i prefer playing w/o items :O

 

[Snoopfrogg]

don't bother trying to erase those posts, it's not spam if you at least eventually use them, the first guy is just a ******

 

[Puffs]

You may be on to something. I started an all pokeballs match in a sealed box to prevent KOs earlier today. The first pokemon to appear was Groudon, there were also a couple Deoxys, Kyogre, Manaphy, and legendary birds. As time went on and I kept throwing pokeballs, it became nothing but Togepi, Munchlax, Goldeen, and Gardevoir.

Latios and Latias were also very common when I was playing on a Ruins-style custom stage, if that might help.

 

[Cheesedork]

Wow, not that all this research you're doing isn't appreciated and all...
But I seriously doubt the programmers would put work into the selection of Pokemon any more than "this Pokemon is this rare."
Sorry...

 

[itsameSMB]

It's random.

... Care to explain? I don't mind if you disagree, but you best be prepared to explain your arguement.

I can assure you that the pokeball system is far from random. Given it is not totally predictable, but there are some trends in the pokemon that appear. It's sort of like the weather; You can tell what it is when it's happening and you may be able to antcipate the possiblities for what will happen next (if there are a lot of dark clouds in the sky, it would make more sense for rain or snow to fall then all the clouds to clear up and it to be sunny one second later), as well as what won't (if it's sunny without a cloud in the sky one second, it won't be a blizzard or tornado the next). However, as you look farther into the future, the cycle becomes more entropic and ergo less predictable. The legendary/rare pokemon could be thought of as lightning [that struck you] or an asteroid. An asteroid would come out of nowhere and lightning would give no warning, but lightning rarely strikes the same spot immediately after the first and asteroids are rare enough that if one hit your car, another most likely wouldn't hit your house by the time you get home (unless your car was in your garage ). However, as time goes on after you've experience the rare phenomenon, it becomes more likely you will witness it again. (Wow, that was one heck of a simile! I'm pretty proud of myself!)

Anyway, Although you usually don't know what will happen until it happens, if you know what happen before and what's happening know, you can predict what can happen next with a reasonable amount of accuracy (i.e. you know that dark clouds came and the air became humid, and that right know it's raining pretty hard. You can predict that lightning will strike, then thunder will come, and it may repeat; it will continue to rain and, if it's cold, may start snowing/sleeting/hailing; or that the wind may pick up and that a tornado CAN, not necessarily WILL, form. Again, an asteroid can still come out of nowhere, but you know with a high degree of certainty that a sandstorm or avalanche won't occur in the next five seconds or the sun won't suddenly come up and the clouds disipate within 10 seconds).

 

[Tonyman]

Im sorry if i sounded rude, now that i readed what i said it feels that way.

If it helps at all, i get munchlax all the time, lots of them, even more than one at the same time XD

 

[itsameSMB]

Wow, not that all this research you're doing isn't appreciated and all...
But I seriously doubt the programmers would put work into the selection of Pokemon any more than "this Pokemon is this rare."
Sorry...

Why are you sorry? That's your opinion and you have every right to it.

But I have every right to mine as well, and it disagrees with yours. True, they might not have said something like "let's make it so that after pokemon A appears twice in a row and pokemon B appears after it, followed by pokemons F, C, D, A, and E twice in a row, either pokemon K, N, or ? will appear but not pokemon J, M, or ? unless followed by pokemon Y, Z, or...", However, here's what I think they did: every pokemon was given its own priority, or likelihood, and they popped the values into a semi-random number generator. Every time you use a pokeball, this random number generator activates and takes all the priorities into consideration (and also possibly the last time a certain pokemon's id or priority was chosen, which from what I can tell seems to be the case) and gives the pokeball instance a pokemon's id, which the pokeball interprets into a pokemon and spawn the selected pokemon.

In short, the way pokemon appear weren't completely determined by the programmers (if it were the case, those who hack into the game or took part in the creation of the game themselves would have such astounding premonition that they would be able to anticipate almost every pokemon's appearance many pokeballs in advance, as well as which items spawned when), so the point of this study is not to research how the programmers thought. Rather, it is more of an effort to see how the pokeball's number generator behaves. That wasn't real short, was it?

 

[itsameSMB]

Im sorry if i sounded rude, now that i readed what i said it feels that way.

If it helps at all, i get munchlax all the time, lots of them, even more than one at the same time XD

Really? I didn't detect any ill-will in that post. If you don't have use for a guide, then don't use it !

About the munchlax: they do appear quite a bit, don't they? their so useless two and they limit the amount of pokeballs/pokemon there can be at a time, so I tend to think less of them. I classify them as "Bottom Tier" (yeah, I said tier) pokemon, which includes bonsly, gardivor[sic], wobbuffet, and goldeen. I'll explain my "poketiers" another time. Anyway, it sounds like the round you got so many munchlaxes was when it was an MVP or Duo Double. What other pokemon appeared a lot that usually doesn't?

 

[Marie_54]

Wow i must congratulate you on your research!
I read the whole thing and its pretty **** interesting.

About that base thing, I have only seen Mew,Celebi and Jirachi come out summoned in the middle of the main platform only too... The order in which i first saw them is that too...
I have yet to see Manaphy, maybe it is required to see Mew, Celebi and Jirachi before seeing Manaphy?

edit- forget about that I just read Generic's post...



and I have yet to see Ho-Oh...

Ooh and one more thing when i saw Celebi and Jirachi they were summoned by a friend of mine who is a n00b and was constantly being beat on, by me, a cpu and a friend of mine.

 

[itsameSMB]

You may be on to something. I started an all pokeballs match in a sealed box to prevent KOs earlier today. The first pokemon to appear was Groudon, there were also a couple Deoxys, Kyogre, Manaphy, and legendary birds. As time went on and I kept throwing pokeballs, it became nothing but Togepi, Munchlax, Goldeen, and Gardevoir.

Latios and Latias were also very common when I was playing on a Ruins-style custom stage, if that might help.

Sounds like a case of pokemon atrophy to me . What about your opponents? did they get better pokemon as the ones you got became useless?

 

[itsameSMB]

Wow i must congratulate you on your research!
I read the whole thing and its pretty **** interesting.

About that base thing, I have only seen Mew,Celebi and Jirachi come out summoned in the middle of the main platform only too... The order in which i first saw them is that too...
I have yet to see Manaphy, maybe it is required to see Mew, Celebi and Jirachi before seeing Manaphy?

and I have yet to see Oh-Oh...

Thanks! Self-assurance is for the weak, but I'm as wimpy as they come, so I really appreciate the praise! It turns out tha manaphy can appear before Mew/Jirachi/Celebi, but I still haven't seen one come out before a legendary pokemon. Don't worry, if you play with just pokeballs for long enough, I guarantee that you will spot one.

Again thanks for your input, guys. It makes my "job" a little easier. If any of you would like to officially contribute your findings to this study, PM me and I'll tell you how to record the data. If you do submit it to me (I can tell you how to do that too, if you don't already know), I'll mention you in one of the first posts and it will make it easier for me to draw some assumptions/conclusions. It's not as tedious as you might think, actually! At least, for me anyway.

 

[itsameSMB]

edit- forget about that I just read Generic's post...

Ooh and one more thing when i saw Celebi and Jirachi they were summoned by a friend of mine who is a n00b and was constantly being beat on, by me, a cpu and a friend of mine.

Good stuff, good stuff! Keep the info coming!

 

[M.K]

I've seen but ONE Groudon, and I THINK it was on New Pork Cty. Never again have I seen a Groudon, and I've only seen ONE Deoxys, TWO Suicune, ZERO Entei, ONE Celebi, and ONE Jirachi.

 

[Mama]

Interesting. That explains why I got two Groudons right on top of each other when we were going for Mew. Well sort of lol.

I'm going to use this guide when I try to get the other rare Pokemon like Manaphy and the other ones. I don't play with items but like he said this guide is for people who need it or want to use it. If you have no use for it then don't use it lol.

 

[itsameSMB]

I've seen but ONE Groudon, and I THINK it was on New Pork Cty. Never again have I seen a Groudon, and I've only seen ONE Deoxys, TWO Suicune, ZERO Entei, ONE Celebi, and ONE Jirachi.

You've never gotten an Entei? That's my most common legendary pokemon! I one had 2 on-screen at the same time twice in a match! Thanks for the info, btw.

 

[xl Lan lx]

Although you have no proof, now that I look at it... that's exactly how it works for me... :O

 

[itsameSMB]

Interesting. That explains why I got two Groudons right on top of each other when we were going for Mew. Well sort of lol.

I'm going to use this guide when I try to get the other rare Pokemon like Manaphy and the other ones. I don't play with items but like he said this guide is for people who need it or want to use it. If you have no use for it then don't use it lol.

Thanks for your partonage! I sure hope I can get enough info to make this thread guide-status. As for getting mew, he/she/it appeared 3 times in a battlefield brawl for me. It started with Deoxys, and non-delay electrodes were quite common in that match. I'll see if I can find a technique that improves the chances of getting a mew.

 

[perezo]

So does that mean when you get a manafy you'll get a mew in the same match no matter what and vice versa?

 

[6footninja]

Very good job at finding the resemblances. You may be onto something

 

[itsameSMB]

Although you have no proof, now that I look at it... that's exactly how it works for me... :O

Heh heh, yeah, I can't save replays of my test matches since I pause a lot and they last a long time. I can't fault you for being skeptical of my ideas, since I'd want proof in your position too. I've been record the pokemon I see on an excel worksheet, so I could show you that if you'd like (not right kow, because it only has a few tests worth of info on it, which isn't enough to back up anything). My proof for know will be that my findings, for the most part, match up with your play.

 

[Burumage]

Some of this actually makes sense to me. Whenever I play with pokeballs, there is some wierdness like seeming to get the same set of pokemon throughout a match or getting doubles of the same pokemon, even legendaries.

 

[itsameSMB]

So does that mean when you get a manafy manaphy you'll get a mew in the same match no matter what and vice versa?

No, not really. What I mean by what I said is that it is so unlikely that you will get a manaphy from a pokeball compared to the rest that the at least of one of the other 3 super-special-awesome-mega-ultra-rare-super-chocolatey-fudge-coated-super pokemon, which are rare enough themselves to warrant a snapshot, will likely appear before a manaphy, does if not twice, or even 4 times! However, this is not always the case, as manaphy once appeared to me before any of the other 3 super-special-awesome-mega-ultra-rare-super-chocolatey-fudge-coated-super pokemon did. Please note, however, that this is once-in-a-blue-moon rare compared to even seeing manaphy. This will probably only happen to you if you either have a marathon of long, pokeball only brawls and use them as soon as they appear, or just at random. Does that make any sense?

 

[Puffs]

Sounds like a case of pokemon atrophy to me . What about your opponents? did they get better pokemon as the ones you got became useless?

No one was controlling player two, as I was just trying to get Mew, Celebi, and Jirachi for collectables (none of which ever appeared).

 

[itsameSMB]

No one was controlling player two, as I was just trying to get Mew, Celebi, and Jirachi for collectables (none of which ever appeared).

Hold on a moment: were you playing brawl or practice? Believe me, legendaries NEVER spawn in SSBB's training mode.

 

[Puffs]

Hold on a moment: were you playing brawl or practice? Believe me, legendaries NEVER spawn in SSBB's training mode.

It was Brawl. CDs, trophies, and stickers don't spawn in training.