itsameSMB
Smash Journeyman
Added the proper format template files! Get testing if you wanna help!
*WARNING: LENGTHY TOPIC AND POSSIBLE SLIGHT SPOILERS!*
*WARNING: LENGTHY TOPIC AND POSSIBLE SLIGHT SPOILERS!*
With Brawl finally out and me with a lot of time on my hands, I've decided to research the "behavior" of pokeballs and the likelyhood of certain pokemon appearing at certain times. It goes far beyond the probability percentage of each pokemon appear (although that is one of the goals of this study. For the tests, I set the items to high and all pokemon and do a Stock match of at least 50 stock to ensure I get a lot of information. I also have 2 low-level CPU players playing to see if different players will get different pokemon at a given time or in a given "order" (the low level is to prolong the match so that more pokeballs can be cracked open). I've only chosen battlefield so far, but one I do enough tests there, say 50-100, I'll do it on some other stages. Here's some of the the theories I formed:
NOTE: Almost all of these ideas gave been proven false. I just keep them here to take up space and because I'm lazy. Please don't tell me you saw a manaphy before a reward pokemon, I am very much aware now that it can be the case.
1) The velocity (not speed) at which the pokeball is thrown, as well as the region of the stage it actives on has an effect on the pokemon it spawns/summons. Also some legendary pokemon have a better chance of appearing in different regions of the stage (I have yet to see a Mew, Manaphy, Celebi, or Jirachi appear on anything but the base platform on battlefield).
2) Certain pokemon may be more likely to spawn if the pokeball used to summon it is used as a weapon or reciprocated (caught and then used by the catcher).
3) There is a value that goes up or down everytime a pokemon appears (based on the pokemon) that affects the chance that a rare or legendary pokemon may appear.
4) A Manaphy will not appear until Mew, Celebi, or Jerichi [possible incorrect spelling] have appeared in the same match first. NOTE: Though it was not in one of my test matches, I noticed after about 15 pokeballs, none of them legendary (I think), a Manaphy appeared. Don't bet on it happening to you, though.
5) At the beginning of a match the following things are decided by the game: the two "MVPs" (most viewed pokemon, which are the most common pokemon in a match. Some pokemon, as well as all legendary/rare pokemon, are exempt from becoming this), the "probable improbability" (the most likely rare pokeball-related event to happen in a match, including, but not limited to: Mew/Celebi/Jerichi[sic]/Manaphy appearing, an Electrode having a delayed explosion, etc.), and the "Duo Doubles" (the pokemon mostly likely to appear consecutively or constantly, especially after another consectivley or constantly summoned pokemon, i.e. Gulpin and Meowth. Not to be confused with MVPs.), among other things.
6) In a long-term pokemon match, pokeballs summons in "cycles". These cycles are not set in stone or even very well defined, but certain patterns as well as legendary apperances will appear a set amount of times in a cycle (you probably will not see one of the four rarest pokemon, especially manaphy, in the same cycle). A new cycle might be indicated by the appearance of a pre-determined pokemon. From what I've gathered, if cycles do exist, Deoxys is definitely one of these "indicator pokemon".
7) Cycles are never repeated exactly, nor is the same type of cycle used twice in a row. However, once a cycle ends, the new cycle may just mimic a cycle from a previous match.
8) Similar to stale moves, if a player uses pokeballs over and over, without some else using a pokemon or the said player not getting KO'ed or doing anything but using pokeballs, the quality of the pokemon they spawn will generally deteriorate (save for one or two legendary summons. Remember, I said in general, not completely).
9) The costume of a character may have an exceedingly slight but affective nonetheless influence on what pokemon appears (it may be just a coincidence, but on one of my tests, I did the costume one former to the costume usualy used for P2 [computer-controlled], and it was almosty entirely different from the usually spawns).
10) I have yet to test it, but the stage the match is played on effects the pokemon that appears on it (i.e. more variety on Pokemon Stadium, rarer pokemon at Spear Pillar, and pokemon with shorter on-screen time at WarioWare, Inc.).
Maybe all this research is futile, but the pokemon spawns are far from random. I've only done a few tests so far and I'm already noticing some trends. So please don't say "this is stupid/pointless, the pokemon are determined randomly".
At the time I posted this, I have conducted about 5 tests, so these ideas are little more than conjectural. However, as I do more research, I'll post it here and update my theories. If you would like to help me out, even by providing an instance that you've experienced that agrees or disagrees with my findings, I'd love to here it on this thread or in a PM. Also, if you think that this pursuit is something worthwhile, please post here. You have no idea how important that kind of motivation would be. I also encourage you to propose any ideas or theories you have here and discuss them, but please be prepared to say why (and by that I mean anything besides something along the lines of "because" or "I don't know".
If you actually read all of that, I thank you and I hope all of my observation will be able to be integrated into the already amazing strategies on this site. Happy smashing!