Want to know when a certain pokemon will appear? (Research:059%; New behavioral info)

[itsameSMB]

I just saw three Manaphies in one battle.

Spear Pillar
40 stock
Me: Falco (default)
Opponents: Luigi, Diddy, Lucas (all default colors)

In fact, this is the only stage that I've ever seen a Manaphy on. Coincidence?

Probably, but I wouldn't bet money on it. Spear Pillar is, after all, based off legendary pokemon.

 

[itsameSMB]

@ itsameSMB: Yeah, after I reread my post, I did dectect a bit of venom in that last part. So sorry!

It's all good; I knew you didn't mean it like that!

 

[itsameSMB]

Sorry for... let's see... septuple posting, but I want to let you all know about something. Any information I get from you guys collected at spear pillar or any stage besides battlefiled will be compiled and analyzed seprate from the data I've collected at battlefeld, since at this point in time, the stage a match is played on may have a slight influence on the pokemon that appear there.

 

[Project Occasus]

http://www.smashbros.com/en_us/gamemode/various/various35.html

It says on this list what the odds of encountering mew, jirachi and celebi are. How will this affect your research?

 

[itsameSMB]

http://www.smashbros.com/en_us/gamemode/various/various35.html

It says on this list what the odds of encountering mew, jirachi and celebi are. How will this affect your research?

All in all, it doesn't directly affect my research, but it is interesting to see the difference between what Sakurai says and what I've observed. When I started doing these tests, the reward pokemon appeared a lot more than that. After a while, though, it appeared a lot less to the point where I rareky see them at all (maybe my Wii's on to me!). It just goes to show how programmers can program a game one way and yet in reality it [can] function in a total different way. Thanks for telling me about this, though! I don't really check the dojo anymore, so I wouldn't of caught this otherwise.

 

[itsameSMB]

Good news, everyone! I'm officially a quarter of the way done with data collection at battlefield for this study! A couple interesting thing happened this time, and it may have something to do that I sort of broke the mold of my recent test matches.

• Deoxys appear 6 times, and 2 of those only had an intermission of 4 pokeballs!
• I saw Celebi and Jirachi again. It's good to see old friends again!
• Ho-Oh and Lugia appear far more often then they normally do, and once during the match 2 Ho-Ohs appeared within 15 or so pokeballs.
• I saw a manaphy and got the heart swap to work the way I wanted, but strangely enough, it only appeared once during the match when it usually appears at least twice. Hmm...
• It wasn't pokemon-spawn-related, but P2 (CPU) and I were standing next to an electrode that was just about to explode. I grabbed it at the last second and threw it upwards, but for whatever reason P2 felt like grabbing it and holding on to it as it exploded. I wasn't able to get away in time.... just thought I'd share that with you.

I also am not sure if has any significance on the test, but about an hour and a half before the test I connected to Nintendo WFC, but didn't play or spectate. I also created a staged and played on it three times before the test, if that may have any effect on the results.

 

[itsameSMB]

Online vs. Offline?

I've been thinking: most of my tests are done offline against computer players in standard brawl. This is all fine and well for determining pokemon most of the time, but I/we want to make sure that pokemon prediction is at least someone accurate, some online tests should be conducted to see if it is any different than offline. I don't notice that much of a difference online so far, but since the pokemon I saw were not seen during a test, it is nothing but conjecture. I'd like to fix that by conducting some tests with those who know what's going on. It would be a "With Friends" stock match at battlefield with just pokeballs and, if requested, food. It wouldn't be a serious match, but if you'd help me in conducting these online tests, feel free to wail on me as much as you please (like you need my permission to do it anyway ). I just ask that you make sure as many pokeballs as possible are activated (preferably not simultenously, as it's hard to record it in order then). If I can pause in a friend match (which I don't think I can), I'll do so every 3 or so pokemon to record them. If not, I'll have a stenographer of sorts helping me. If I do a taunt that say, "HOLD IT!", that means I'm recording data and can't focus on the match.

I'm telling you now: I may not be the worst smash player ever, but I probably will not come close to you in performance. The point of the match is to help me collect data, not provide you with a challenge. The longer the match is dragged out, the more information that will be recorded. If it matches up with the offline observations, then there will be no need to do more online tests. However, if the online spawn pattern is different from the the offline one, then many more tests will need to be conducted to get a solid prediction method. We will never know until we do these tests!

If you are interested in joining me in a match tonight, post here or PM me to let me know to add your friend code and Wii number and so I can give you mine. If you would like to communicate during the match, let me know how you would like to do so and I'll see if I can do it. I'm not trying to request a match here, btw. This is topic-related so I don't think I'm breaking any rules.

 

[itsameSMB]

Some food for thought....

During my last test, I was noticing a lot of Munchlax and Electrode spawns. Not that that's out of the ordinary, but I got thinking about them and I though a little bit about their behavior and affect on other pokemon. Nothing more speculation, mind you, but I'll discuss them nonetheless.

About Electrode: the "tripping pokemon":​

I recall someone suggesting not that while ago on this board that tripping is not random but has to do with the precision of your controller input. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe it went something to the effect of "if you do not tilt the control stick parallel to the slope you are moving on, you build up 'trip points'. Every 10th or so dash/direction change, if you do not tilt the control stick parallel to the floor, the game sort of [and I'm paraphrasing here] 'rolls a die of sorts based on your trip points'. [Done paraphrasing] The more you have, the more likely it is that on that on that 10th or so dash/direction change you will trip. If you do trip, the trip points reset and life goes on." I've noticed that lately pokeballs thrown by me or another human player rarely result in a dud electrode (if it spawns an electrode). Yet the number of dud electrodes spawn by computer plays remains, for the most part, unchanged. Maybe this could mean that the way the pokeball spawning an electrode is thrown (not nescesarily parallel to the ground) has an effect on electrode's behavior similar to how this possible mechanism for tripping works. In fact, it may, only MAY, help you get better pokemon if you through it right, QED. I may expand on this idea later.

About Munchlax: the "karma pokemon"​

Okay, maybe karma is not the best term to describe the concept, but something about munchlax caught my eye. When I started doing my tests, I only used pokeballs and for whatever reason, munchlax doesn't like to eat 'em (but it'll scarf a bob-omb down no problem). Therefore, it didn't have a chance to eat anything while it was out. After he spawned, the next pokemon was usually garbage or very common. When I started using other items during the test, however, he chowed down on them like they were candy. I was expecting something like another munchlax or garbage pokemon after I spawned it, but in reality I found a snorlax in the next one I cracked open (I think munchlax had 1 or two items before the snorlax was spawned). Again this is probably no more than coincidence, feeding munchlax may improve your chances of seeing better pokemon.

What do you think?

 

[Xtreme Starfox]

...Care to tell us a little more or provide with some evidence?

It was in Smashvile both times, It was online and it happened in a row.


EDIT: I mean by Row is first battle he appears then fight ends we choose Smashvile again it appears again.

 

[itsameSMB]

It was in Smashvile both times, It was online and it happened in a row.

...Interesting. Well, it's not that I don't think you're telling the truth, it's just... I find it a bit odd. Were you spectating or actually playing, and if you were playing, were you playing with friends or with anyone?

Edit: I saw your edit and I also reread your post. It might be stage-related and/or the fact that it was online. I'll have to check it out some time.

 

[Xtreme Starfox]

I was Playing with Friends 1 VS 1.

 

[itsameSMB]

I see. Are you sure that there wasn't ANY legendary spawns AT ALL thoughout the time before manaphy appeared? Also, do you remember what items were on the match and what the item frequency was?

 

[Xtreme Starfox]

I don't know what the person I was facing had as items on and off or his frequency.

All I know is that I had all Items on and them on High.

I'm sure no Legendary Pokemon came out both times.

 

[itsameSMB]

I don't know what the person I was facing had as items on and off or his frequency.

All I know is that I had all Items on and them on High.

I'm sure no Legendary Pokemon came out both times.

Well... okay. I'll take your word for it for know but I'm not going toinclude it in my analysis unless either I see it happen during a test or someone else records in during their test. It's just for consistancy purposes. Anyway, thanks for the info and not getting mad at me when I asked about the match.

 

[Xtreme Starfox]

I'll try to help more than just saying things then. XD

If I ever see one again without a legendary before I'll record the match.

 

[itsameSMB]

I'll try to help more than just saying things then. XD

If I ever see one again without a legendary before I'll record the match.

Great, thanks! I'm going to hazard sounding blunt here, but the most useful thing to me for this study is a test done in the proper format, and it doesn't take that long to do (nor is it difficult). In fact, would you like to help me conduct an online test now? I'll record the results.

 

[Xtreme Starfox]

Great, thanks! I'm going to hazard sounding blunt here, but the most useful thing to me for this study is a test done in the proper format, and it doesn't take that long to do (nor is it difficult). In fact, would you like to help me conduct an online test now? I'll record the results.

Sorry I can't go play Brawl right now. (someone else using the TV that the Wii is connected to XD) I can play later though I'll PM when I can.

(1 hour or 1 Hour 30 I think.)

Spoiler

-_- Why does this Board load up so slow sometimes.

 

[itsameSMB]

Sorry I can't go play Brawl right now. (someone else using the TV that the Wii is connected to XD) I can play later though I'll PM when I can.

(1 hour or 1 Hour 30 I think.)

Spoiler

-_- Why does this Board load up so slow sometimes.

Sounds like a plan, I'll reply as soon as I see it. Btw, this isn't limited to 2 people! If you want to join, let me know!

(The reason the board is so slow is because we have so many people viewing it at one time)

 

[itsameSMB]

Well, Xtreme Starfox and I just finished conducting the first online pokeball test and, well... It didn't work out as well as I had hoped. The lag was about a half second and the fact that I couldn't pause really hindered the test while proving a bit overwhelming for me (You try typing the ID numbers of 6 pokemon into an excel worksheet from memory while playing brawl at 120% and tell me if that stresses you out). I was also totally owned by him, but that I don't care so much about. What bothers me is that based off what we conducted, online pokemon spawns have a different pattern than that of an offline match. So, regretably (for me anyway), more online tests will have to be conducted. However, I am requesting that during the test we use at the very least a text chat to communicate. I'm done for the night, though, so any plans will have to be worked out tomorrow.

Let's all give Xtreme Starfox a round of applause for putting up with my noobish tactics and cooperating with me to make the test a lot easier to perform!

 

[Pseudoshot]

Interesting. I hope this can turn into a glitch. (grab glitch meowth spawn in ssb64 lol.)

 

[Xtreme Starfox]

Glad to have helped, I tried to stop throwing any pokeballs when you said "Hold it" untill you moved again so that helped you?

Also weird to see in the match after the first (I think) we got a Entei as the first pokemon then Suicune.



EDIT: Pseudoshot Wrong Thread? Are you taking about the Giga Bowser Freezing in Meowth Glitch?

 

[itsameSMB]

Also weird to see in the match after the first (I think) we got a Entei as the first pokemon then Suicune.

Yeah, that was weird. Not as weird as the gap between Jirachi and Celebi, though. My favorite part was still the part with the deku nut and the dragoon .

 

[SSJ4Kazuki]

EDIT: Pseudoshot Wrong Thread? Are you taking about the Giga Bowser Freezing in Meowth Glitch?

No, he said SSB64.

There was a glitch that caused Meowth to always spawn from Pokeballs.

 

[itsameSMB]

Conducted a test last night and only just got around to posting about it. From the looks of it, the area of the stage that a pokeball is activated on does not have significant enough of an impact on its contents to be considered a part of the pokemon determination process and therefore can be disregarded. The jury is still out on the velocity of the pokeball, though.

I'm also beginning to wonder if the fact that I have all the non-challenge CDs has anything to do with the fact that I've seen Celebi and Jirachi lately, but no Mew. I know you can still still Mew after that, but still, I wonder.

Anyway, I think there may e a pattern within a pattern as far as the pokeballs go. As I am recording my observations, I'm noticing that the even cells and the odd cells seem to follow their own pattern as well as with each other, so I'm going to look into it more when I finish data collection. This may mean that my conclusion may take a bit longer to reach. Sorry!

I may end up doing more tests, as the ones I've been doing recently have yeilded far less pokeballs than they did originally. I'd say if I continue to get as few results from the tests I've been conducting as I've been getting, I'll have to do, say... 16 additional full-length tests.

 

[itsameSMB]

Well... Interesting...

Finished an online test match with Xtreme Starfox a couple hours ago and the results were, well... surprising. To be fair, very surprising. Stunning, even. I have yet to directlly compare the two, but the results gather from this test share were at the very least 60% identical to a previous offline test I conducted. The number of Manaphy and reward spawns were dead on, (2 in an online match, wtf?). Heck, even the first few starting pokemon were the same! It's very odd.What's even more eye-opening is the fact that the combos found in the match (of pokeballs) have been a constant theme in past tests and even free play. I cannot provide any irefutable evidence at the time, It seems that I was at least partially correct that pokeballs do follow a vague pattern, meaning that it is indeed possible to predict them. I can understand if you are skeptical of this claim right now, I'll do a better job explaining it in the future. For now, please keep in mind that until I finish all my tests, both online and offline, and compile all of the information, this is all but mere conjecture.I hope that you guys will bear with me until then.

 

[Newuser12345215]

All in all, it doesn't directly affect my research, but it is interesting to see the difference between what Sakurai says and what I've observed. When I started doing these tests, the reward pokemon appeared a lot more than that. After a while, though, it appeared a lot less to the point where I rareky see them at all (maybe my Wii's on to me!). It just goes to show how programmers can program a game one way and yet in reality it [can] function in a total different way. Thanks for telling me about this, though! I don't really check the dojo anymore, so I wouldn't of caught this otherwise.

Well, I'd say Sakurai's 0.2%~ chance about the reward pokemon seems true for me.

I have played 10 hours of "vs Brawls" with all items enabled.

Played an additional 5 hours of "vs Brawls" with only Pokemon, Sandbags, Foods, and Barrels/PartyBalls/Boxes.

(Just background info on what I was doing, nothing really important)
(So, it was basically raining pokeballs. I set it up this was because I wanted the reward Pokemons to appear(I'm in the process of trying to get all music CDs). I also set it up so it was 3v1.
I played on the team that had 3 players. All CPUs except me. For a twist, I made it so that the handicap on my allies were at 80%. I left myself and the lone CPU on the other team at 0%. That was, I would have a higher chance of grabbing a CD(If it appeared) without interruption, since I lost about 3-4 CDs because computers kept attacking me while I was trying to grab a CD.)
(/End background Info)

I've played about 5-7ish hours of solo Brawls from Classic mode, All star mode, Events, Stadiums which had Pokeballs enabled.

So that's about 15-17 hours of Brawls with Pokeballs enabled, 5 of those 15-17 hours had only Pokeballs, Sandbags, Food, and Partyballs/Barrels/Crates/Boxes enabled.

I've only seen two out of three of the reward Pokemons. I haven't seen Mew yet. I've seen Jirachi once, Celebi twice(see below).

So, at least for me, I feel that the 0.2%~ chance that the Smash Dojo site has listed for the reward pokemon seem close to me.

BUT, there was a match where Celebi(trophy dropping Pokemon) appeared twice in a row. First, it appeared at nearly the end of the match, I didn't get any trophies because I didn't even noticed that Celebi appeared (I was trying out B-sticking/Wavebouncing for the first time so I wasn't paying attention to the current battle).

Then a notice came saying that I saw Celebi, this was when I realized that Celebi appeared.

Ok next match, Celebi appears AGAIN, and dropped the trophies.

My guess is because I didn't get any of the trophies Celebi dropped in the previous match, it appeared again in the next match so I could get at least one trophy. Either that, or I was lucky to see it twice in a row.

 

[itsameSMB]

Well, I'd say Sakurai's 0.2%~ chance about the reward pokemon seems true for me.

I have played 10 hours of "vs Brawls" with all items enabled.

Played an additional 5 hours of "vs Brawls" with only Pokemon, Sandbags, Foods, and Barrels/PartyBalls/Boxes.

(Just background info on what I was doing, nothing really important)
(So, it was basically raining pokeballs. I set it up this was because I wanted the reward Pokemons to appear(I'm in the process of trying to get all music CDs). I also set it up so it was 3v1.
I played on the team that had 3 players. All CPUs except me. For a twist, I made it so that the handicap on my allies were at 80%. I left myself and the lone CPU on the other team at 0%. That was, I would have a higher chance of grabbing a CD(If it appeared) without interruption, since I lost about 3-4 CDs because computers kept attacking me while I was trying to grab a CD.)
(/End background Info)

I've played about 5-7ish hours of solo Brawls from Classic mode, All star mode, Events, Stadiums which had Pokeballs enabled.

So that's about 15-17 hours of Brawls with Pokeballs enabled, 5 of those 15-17 hours had only Pokeballs, Sandbags, Food, and Partyballs/Barrels/Crates/Boxes enabled.

I've only seen two out of three of the reward Pokemons. I haven't seen Mew yet. I've seen Jirachi once, Celebi twice(see below).

So, at least for me, I feel that the 0.2%~ chance that the Smash Dojo site has listed for the reward pokemon seem close to me.

BUT, there was a match where Celebi(trophy dropping Pokemon) appeared twice in a row. First, it appeared at nearly the end of the match, I didn't get any trophies because I didn't even noticed that Celebi appeared (I was trying out B-sticking/Wavebouncing for the first time so I wasn't paying attention to the current battle).

Then a notice came saying that I saw Celebi, this was when I realized that Celebi appeared.

Ok next match, Celebi appears AGAIN, and dropped the trophies.

My guess is because I didn't get any of the trophies Celebi dropped in the previous match, it appeared again in the next match so I could get at least one trophy. Either that, or I was lucky to see it twice in a row.

Is that a fact?
Yeah, pokeballs are somewhat erratic. If you are CD farming, the best trick would be the Sandbag on a custom stage method. You'll probably see a CD appear out of nowhere before a Mew drops one.

 

[Weimdog]

Great Job

@itsameSMB,

Well done on all your work so far. It's pleasing to see someone consistently work so hard for the community, I hope your testing amounts to some stable theories, so that you will be properly thanked and credited for what you've done.

As far as the flamers and the whiners go, you seem to be able to shrug them off reasonably well, kudos.

If I was with my Wii, I'm sure I would begin testing to help out as well. While the arguement "this has very little impact on the game" has merit, that doesn't mean it isn't worth testing and examining. Curiosity and the desire to serve others are each reason enough to do what you're doing.

KEEP IT UP. I'm sure that you'll come to an interesting and satisfying conclusion. The more work that goes into this, the more people will look forward to the completion of the project, and the more you will be able to look back on this with a smile.

Besides, even if you test everything and come to the conclusion that there is NO system, it's all merely dumb luck; then at least pure chance has been CONFIRMED FOR BRAWL.

 

[DRaGZ]

4) A Manaphy will not appear until Mew, Celebi, or Jerichi [possible incorrect spelling] have appeared in the same match first. NOTE: Though it was not in one of my test matches, I noticed after about 15 pokeballs, none of them legendary (I think), a Manaphy appeared. Don't bet on it happening to you, though.

This is false. I did a few 30-minute Pokeball only matches, and I distinctly remember that in one match I got only Manaphy twice.

 

[Xigger]

"this is stupid/pointless, the pokemon are determined randomly"

Actually, it's very easy to notice how it isn't random. Otherwise, we would be seeing more rare pokemon.... Melee's Pokeball Pokemon ratio was better, you didn't have to throw 200 pokeballs to get Raikou.

And don't you think Sakurai would prevented doubles? Or is it just with common Pokemon? That's another interesting thing to try.

 

[itsameSMB]

This is false. I did a few 30-minute Pokeball only matches, and I distinctly remember that in one match I got only Manaphy twice.

I mean this with all do respect, and I know it isn't required of you, but you haven't read that much of this thread, have you? It's just that I haven't gotten around to updating it yet.

Btw, everyone: I just want to let you know I'm grounded until I get a certain thing done. I may get it done within 2 hours, maybe 2 weeks. Point is, I can do any tests until then, so I apologize for the delay. However, I am only grounded from PLAYING Nintendo, so I can still take a look at any test results you send me, so if you have any, send 'em in!

 

[itsameSMB]

And don't you think Sakurai would prevented doubles? Or is it just with common Pokemon? That's another interesting thing to try.

Actually, doubles happen with even legendaries. I even saw a triple Entei once! You can even get 10 in a row of a certain pokemon (That was one heck of a test).

 

[Yoshistar64]

Bah, that means you can't add me on Wi-fi.

Oh well, I'll try to help some more anyway.

 

[itsameSMB]

Well, just finished test #14, and as always, something unusual happened. I feel a bit to lazy to say exactly what right now, but might tell you the details later. Not to toot my own horn or anything of the sort, but it looks like I was at least right about the patterns part of the pokemon. I finished the match during a heart swap, and it made me think: "If you KO someone you heart swap with when they only had one stock, do you remain their character or does the game freeze up after the heart swap ends?" I realize this has virtually no chance of happening in practice, let alone serious play, but still, I wonder. If you find the answer (not assume it), let me know, k?

If you are wondering why I played tonight when I said I was grounded, it's because I was ungrounded for the rest of the day since the internet being down prohibited me from doing my work at the time.

 

[itsameSMB]

And now for something completely different...

And now for something completely different...

While I was playing #14 (first 99-stock test match, btw), Mew came up first as the 22nd pokemon and appeared 50 pokeballs later (only gave me a lousy sticker each time, though). This is good news for all you Mew seekers out there, since more data=more analysis. Had a few legendary doubles and more Piplups then I care to count. I don't remember if I posted this next idea already, so I do it (possibly) again to be safe:

There seems to be a similar trend for every even and odd pokeball that at times is more understandable/predictable then the main pattern of pokeballs (I.E. pokeball #3[say, Weavile] makes more sense compared to pokeball #1[say, Metagross] than pokeball #2 [like a legendary, say Entei). I highly doubt that this was the Dev team's intention, but it seems to be there nonetheless. I'll look into it some more and let you know what I find.

And... um... I'm not sure if I'm allowed to go this far off-topic, but I'm up for a Wi-Fi match right now if anyone else is. (Prepares to get bombarded with "YOU DIDN'T READ THE RULES!" flames)

 

[itsameSMB]

Okay, so test #15 is in the bag. I did it a couple hours earlier than I usually do, and to be honest, there wasn't that much of a difference. Not much of what happened during the test was out of the ordinary. I did see Manaphy appear once (16th pokeball), but even though I was about 1 character length/height from both Manaphy and the other characters during the HS, the two computers got it even though they were just barely in the field of influence. WTF. I did see a Jirachi, but other than that, nothing that strange really happened.

Now for some good news: I've finally began formulating an actual pokeball prediction strategy that so far seems to work suprisingly well! Since I just started officially creating it, though, it only is truly reliable for predicting 2 consecutive pokeballs of a directly preceding one. It also is lousy at predicting exact pokemon over time and does not help at all when it comes to predicting reward pokemon and manaphies (is that the plural form of manaphy?). It also seems to work on stages besides battlefield from what I can tell, but I have yet to test it on Spear Pillar, half of the other brawl stages, all the melee stages, and any custom stages.

On a side note, the character who used a pokeball, as well as the controller and the area of the stage a pokeball is used on, does not seem to influence the pokeball's contents at all. I hate to say it for certain since my data collection is only 31% complete, but it really doesn't seem to me as if there is any connection between those elements and the pokemon spawns.

 

[itsameSMB]

Grr... edgehogging...

Online test #3 is done (thank God), and I think I know why online tests yielded different results than offline. The pokeballs are determined by the host Wii, not the client Wii(obviously, but I just figured it out. I'm pretty slow).

The good news is I don't think I need to do any more online tests for now, but the bad news (for me at least) is that I can't do a thing against edge-guards and juggles. I've never been one to boast about my skills (because I don't have much besides the basics), but wow, I realized tonight I am just terrible! Anyway, Tsuteto helped me out with this one so be sure to thank him (you know, in a 'not actually thanking him, just reading the shoutout' kind of way)!

 

[itsameSMB]

Okay, so another day, another test. Nothing to out of the ordinary. So I don't feel like I'm spamming, I'm going to start saying some patterns in pokemon that I seem to always get every time I finish a test.. Don't take them to heart just yet.

Metagross is usually followed by:
Chikorita, another metagross, ESPECIALLY weavile, goldeen, gulpin, gardivor, electrode, meowth, and torchic.

 

[itsameSMB]

Testing is going great, FYI

Test #18 is complete, and to be honest, I think I could start the analysis with the data I've collected up to this point alone. However, I am going to stick it out the whole 50 tests, just to be certain. During the test I saw 3 reward pokemon and 4 manaphies[sic?] appear (two of the manaphies appeared with only a 7 pokeball gap in between them). Maybe it's just my imagination acting up, I honestly believe that every single pokemon that appear followed a pattern.

While I'm still working on this, I have two suggestions for you (provided you are going to use my findings in your gameplay):
1) DON'T RUSH A MATCH IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR A CERTAIN POKEMON
If you played a long Pokeball match, say 80 stock and you are down to the last 3, and you have yet to see any reward pokemon or you barely saw the pokemon you were looking for, don't just forget about it and try to wrap the match up. What I mean by that is you shouldn't feel that since you haven't seen the pokemon appear yet (or enough during the match), that doesn't mean it won't appear. Think of a slot machine. You try 500 spins on it and ended up getting only about a 50% payback. You don't want to lose any more, so you walk away. The next person comes and plays it and then BAM!, they walk away with the jackpot! Of course, that's not to say you should just lie back and wait exclusively for pokeballs to appear. You just shouldn't forget why you started the match. On a side note, for two of my tests, Manaphy appeared as the last pokemon (which in case you haven't figured it out yet is my favorite pokeball pokemon in Brawl).

2) GET USED TO IDENTIFYING POKEMON BY THEIR ALPHABETICALLY ORDER ID NUMBER
Though it probably isn't the order that pokemon ID values in the actual programming, being able to recognize Pokemon by their number (see below for chart) rather than the pokemon's will not only help remember what pokemon appeared when, but also help you recognize patterns and formulate pokemon-related strategies. It may take a while to memorize them and it may seem like a waste of time to some people, but it won't be long before it sticks to you like rubber cement. If you want some incentive to memorize these numbers, think about this: pokemon like to appear after a pokemon whose ID value is within 3 units from them, as well as 10 away and twice/half their ID value.

Here's the chart:

01.....................Bellossom
02.....................Bonsley
03.....................Celebi
04.....................Chikorita
05.....................Deoxys
06.....................Electrode
07.....................Entei
08.....................Gardevoir
09.....................Goldeen
10.....................Groudon
11.....................Gulpin
12.....................Ho-Oh
13.....................Jirachi
14.....................Kyogre
15.....................Latias
16.....................Latios
17.....................Lugia
18.....................Manaphy
19.....................Meowth
20.....................Metagross
21.....................Mew
22.....................Moltres
23.....................Munchlax
24.....................Piplup
25.....................Snorlax
26.....................Staryu
27.....................Suicune
28.....................Togepi
29.....................Torchic
30.....................Weavile
31.....................Wobbuffet​

...Okay, I concede that those were tips were presented in a pretty lousy quality, but I highly recommend you follow them.

One last thing: I know I can find this stuff with a google search, but I would like someone else to tell me this anyway (because I am just that lazy/dumb). For each of the above pokemon's SKILLS, what would you classify them as (element-wise), and which pokemon are actually legendary in the pokemon games? There, now I won't be the only one posting here .

 

[itsameSMB]

20 tests, w00t!

Did my 20th test a few hours ago and I've been thinking. What good is pokemon prediction if you don't have a strategy for them? A suicidial drop to just above the bottom screen KO boundary just as a heart swap is about to end is one example, but what about the other 30 pokemon? If you knew what pokemon was going to appear, how would you use that information to your advantage? That is why when I finish analysis of the tests and type the information up into a guide, I'll be including a section on pokeball strategies. The reason I'm telling all of you this is because I am looking for other strategies besides my own to include in the guide. Of course, you will be credited for your contribution and I would very much appreciate it (if it is a serious contribution). You can PM it to me or just post it here, if you'd like.

About the test:
I think I may be losing my discerning touch (that or I'm just really tired). I'd say that at least 4 times during test #20 I had recorded a pokemon that may have been incorrect and tried to recall what it was for 2+ minutes. They are all in order now, though, so you need not worry of the log's accuracy. There were a plethora of Manaphy appearances and they all appeared remarkably close together. Also had many legendary spawns, as well as the appearance of Celebi towards the beginning of the match and Mew about half-way through. I honestly can say that I do have enough info right now to start making some serious prediction methods. In fact, to show that I really have that much data (and so that I know I'm not talking to myself), I'll do an in-depth analysis of any one non-reward pokemon depending on what is requested the most by the next time I log on. Just say the 3 that you would like to know about and post there names here. After there have been at least 5 posts, I'll do an early analysis of all my tests and let you know as much as I can about the most chosen pokemon. Remember, no Mew, Celebi, or Jirachi!