Wam's Chaos Game Thread

[LaserGuy]

Or ninja shot is available.

 

[Swiss]

Scum can roll any of the town 1-shots except vig. If he was a cop, it gets replaced by rolecop.

Yeah but that doesn't change he's soft clearing someone that isn't towncore

 

[Swiss]

doesn't change the fact that he's soft*

 

[Wam]

I have updated the OP to clarify both godfather and ninja must be activated.

 

[Swiss]

ISO'd Somi and I really don't like them.
#306 #394 read as scum to me
So my stance hasn't changed.

There are other people I need to ISO as well, so you guys just keep talking while I re-read, posting more tomorrow.

That vig shot has given me an actual headache

 

[Deadbananas]

Yeah but that doesn't change he's soft clearing someone that isn't towncore

IMO Heury was probably one of the most cleared by Tattertot's flip.
There's no way Tattertot self-prezes onto his scum buddy, that'd just be a bad play. As well as something Bessie mentioned earlier about the cat avatars, and Heury's position on Tattertot's wagon.

 

[Deadbananas]

above makes me feel like an idiot for being on Heury almost all day last day, but it's how I see it. Heury is the last person besides myself I would vote for in this game at this point.

 

[Deadbananas]

am in physics rn, but once class ends I'll do wagon analysis.

 

[Swiss]

Somi why did you cop Huery when we all said they’re unlikely partners?

 

[Deadbananas]

Final VC:
Tattertot - 3 -, Heury Alone, LaserGuy, Swiss -- (Bessie)
Huery Alone - 2 - Deadbananas, Tattertot
Somitomi - 1 - Bessie,
Laserguy - 3 - ranmaru, sabrar, somitomi
----------
From the wagon:
Heury is the most clear in my opinion. read this for why .
Next I would say is Swiss. Swiss held down the tatterot vote making sure it would happen. He'd supported Tatterot as town earlier in the day, so it wouldn't have super costly for him to return to that opinion. It would be hard to go onto Laser without drawing attention, but from this reads list It would have been totally possible to hop onto Heury alone, causing Heury to be the yeet.
Next Is laser. Laser had mentioned earlier he didn't want to pursue Tattertot, and in a reads list sighted a rule of not yeeting new players day 1. He would have had a relatively easy time not voting for Tattertot. At the time, Laser's vote pushed Tattertot to 3.
Bessie - ostensibly off wagon, I wasn't there, so I don't know how close the timing between Bessie's vote and Wam's deadline call was. I see Bessie's vote as a counter to Somi's vote, since it came after Somi's vote, and Bessie was previously voting Somi.
Somitomi - Came in last second with an excuse of sheeping ran. I'm not sure if Somi knew the current count, or knew the rules in case of a tie, Wam did give a reminder on that page.

 

[Deadbananas]

On page 8 in my readthrough, just going the rest of the way analyzing both Sabrar and Ranmaru as possibly being the nk.

Swiss what did you do last night?

 

[Deadbananas]

Spoiler: Re-read interesting quotes

Ooo getting reads based on profile picture update. Will be interesting to see tattertot's alignment flip now.

funny

I am also leaning on tattertot being mafia. They've been online reading the thread, but only answers some of the questions addressed. Also, newer players are hardest to read. Could be newbie syndrome or mafia syndrome. If tattertot flips mafia, I think that also clears ranmaru, since I doubt ranmaru would bus a newbie scrum partner so early on. Dead banana likely cleared for some reason (but ranmaru slightly more cleared for mentioning it first).

I still don't like this post, but I'm willing to accept it as early game hedge.

At this point, my PoE is exactly Swiss, Tattertot, and somitomi. Everyone else I have some reason to believe that they're Town. Including you, now, apparently.

Tattertot has some weirdness in their posting that I'm having difficulty parsing. This line in particular stands out as very unnatural to me though, especially right after Swiss started his push on Sabrar:
Tattertot and Sabrar hadn't really interacted at all at this point beyond Sabrar asking about Tattertot's avatar, so it's weird that this comes up out of the blue without really anything to justify it... especially as he's just finished saying that he doesn't like to make snap judgments on people.

I've got a few minor pings out of Swiss' content that have bothered me, but mostly it's just that I'm more comfortable with everyone else right now. I will go more into Swiss sometime a bit later, but I want to see how things develop first.

Laserguy brings up Tattertot early, a bit ambiguously, but still a solid stance on him towards the negative this earlier.

bessie: I question LaserGuy's read, I don't think her enthusiasm couldn't be faked, however there are a couple of minor things which suggest to me that this is town!bessie. I would love-love-love to see more from her, this 1 big post per day is not enough for me to get a good feel and neither does it do her justice.

Deadbananas: I think he made a town-slip, it's technically not hard to fake but I don't think it would occur to him to do so. Has generally good content as well.

LaserGuy: I really want a game where I can finally trust him fully, but it keeps eluding me. His content is reasonable and I like most of his reads, however his scum-reads seem to lack conviction that I would expect.

I forgot to ask Sabrar what my slip was. More importantly, brings up the laser case that would further become Ran's main push.

I could understand Laser skipping over Tattertot's wagon if they were scummates together, but not sure why he would do that as scum with a town Tattertot.

This doesn't make sense still since why would Laser skip over Tattertot's wagon then later secure the yeet on Tattertot.

So [IMG alt="Tattertot"]https://smashboards.com/data/avatars/s/476/476980.jpg?1615867037[/IMG] Tattertot , where have you played mafia with Heury before?

Quick to call out an inconsistency with Tattertot, even if him lying here wouldn't make much sense. More importantly, this is the first time I remember Bessie going after Tattertot.

The more I read the more I am inclined to vote tattertot. As mafia, it clears ranmaru, dead banana, and more recently due to post 85,laser guy. I don't think laser guy would bus a newbie this early either. And then would take a serious look at swiss for d2. Unless I die then I guess that clears them.

Heury town

It's in my reads list, I think your arguments for pushing Tattertot aren't great, especially the one about new players being difficult to read. I'm also dubious about how much information we get from the flip of a newbie who's been suspect to most of us (partly because of the aforementioned difficulty).

Somi pushing against Tattertot yeet

You're getting this early so that it doesn't eat into my weekend. Long rambling, read at your own risk. Everything expressed here is a personal opinion, I do not claim to know why a particular content was posted, just what impression it gives me. Also, I'm doing this in Notepad, I will include post-numbers but not links, sorry about that. With that out of the way:

Let's start with my obligatory D1 tunnel who happens to be Swiss here.

Spoiler

Swiss starts the game with #11, a question about how the Vig works. We have 4 main possibilities:

1. Swiss is Vig. The question is genuine because the setup does not explicitly say whether it is Day-Vig or Night. Nobody reacts, he does not get a public answer so he probably asked the mod in private after some time.
My main issue with this scenario is that we received our role-pm well in advance, so why did he not ask this in private immediately upon seeing the role he got? Why wait a day and draw attention to it?

2. Swiss is Vig, but the question is not genuine. He's doing a play by claiming it either because he wants Doc-protection or because he wants to trick scum into thinking that the Vig can't be him (or possibly another reason that didn't occur to me).
In the first case he would be able to admit the purpose when I ask him about it #169 and it wouldn't be such a secret that he would need to ignore me constantly.
In the second case he should be on the lookout precisely for the very obvious role-fishing that I'm doing but he somehow never raises this point against me.

3. Swiss is scum. He tests the waters with #11, hoping to draw out a comment that would indicate to him the actual Vig if it exists. If questioned later it is easy to brush off #11 by claiming it was to protect the actual Vig or draw the NK to a VT or anything similar. Also there's a good 50% chance that no Vig exists in which case he can continue the gambit.
In this case he can't actually answer my question in #169 and is forced to ignore it.

4. Swiss is Town but not Vig. His reason for doing the gambit is something already described above. Again, he should be interested in my role-fishing but is not. Also, this is a very risky play because an inexperienced player might counter-claim Vig or an experienced player who is actual Vig (and has more restraint than me to not to get into a fight) might try to shoot him which has negative expected value even if he gets saved by Doc.

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“Accuse Your Enemy Of What You Are Doing, As You Are Doing It To Create Confusion”
This idea or one of its many variations is attributed to a lot of famous/infamous people in history, it has been an effective tool in propaganda. 2 examples from this game:

• in #88 he says I'm 'very keen to character assassinate'. People know that I don't do personal insults, I'm not the one who calls the other to have an 'inflated ego' (#114), or calling them a 'peacock' (#114, #264).
• he accuses me of jumping to a conclusion (again #114, in response to me saying that he is not interested in my answers). What he fails to acknowledge is that he did the same in #67-#68 where he came to a conclusion before giving me any chance to respond. Also, as it turns out my conclusion was right, he really wasn't interested in what I had to say, as evidenced by #88, #92 and #124. To reiterate for the final time, he never answered my #93 and #120, he just brushed it off.

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Last stop is #158 where he asks what a Ninja does. I might be reading too much into this but how does this question come from an experienced player and why does it come 2 days after game has started? Is Swiss that much unaware of the setup? Why did he not ask what an 'Atheist' was? The top 2 results in Google link to wiki.mafiascum.net and mafiauniverse.com and are both very different from the sense that I used it in my first post. To me this all is inconsistent with a town player who is genuinely interested in the setup.

Let's talk about ranmaru next.

Spoiler

In #122 he has issues with how I'm not pushing Swiss hard. We know from the many examples he brought against LaserGuy that he has either notes or good memory of other players' (perceived) style, so why does he not remember that we had this discussion before, for example in Oasis Mafia. I simply don't push as hard as I used to, mainly because I'm spending less time on the game than previously. The same goes for the point regarding me not making reads early. Last but no least we have "Yet scumleaning me for it, when he knows I'll be able to deliver, is weak." I feel this is an overreaction, I know that he is able to deliver later but why can't I form an opinion based on the fact that he hasn't done it so far?

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The point where I got my first impression of a buddy-buddy relationship with Swiss was #122-#130. Obviously when you have only 2 people contributing then the result will be a similar conversation, especially when they had previous history. However the whole tone of that seemed too casual to me, with no tension between 2 players who should be questioning the other's motives.

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Finally we jump to #216. At first I thought that scum had little reason to shake up the status quo, except if the status quo would likely lead to their demise. So if ranmaru were to be scum then his partner would be Heury who was in most danger to be yeeted. However he backtracked quite quickly on Swiss in #250 and #254 and what I also find interesting is that he presented the connection between LaserGuy and Tattertot as the main reasons, something he did not look into between LaserGuy and Swiss in #216.

I will stop here, I might be forgetting some minor points but nothing crucial I think.

While he brings up a case on Ran, I don't think this would be enough for Sabrar to shoot him, especially because his case seemed farther on Swiss.

And you, a new player, has this experienced, informed insight from … where?

Bessie giving some sass to Tattertot

Tattertot is the easy vote today. It's a guarantee town win if they flip scum. I just don't see anyone other than swiss or somitomi being their scum partner.

D2 plan if Tattertot is mafia:
Swiss uses vig shot on either me or somi. If this happens, lynch the other (of me and somi). If no vig shot is used, lynch swiss.

Worse case scenario, tattertot flips town, swiss should still use vig shot d2 to clear themself, and scum is among swiss, somi, and laserguy.

Heury Town - rip vig shot plan

I can see Tatter going out the airlock by default here which is a shame but I’ll run the gauntlet on that later.

I’d still take Heury over Tatter

Proof Swiss could have easily switched to Heury over Tattertot at EoD, swiss town

Ranmaru and Sabrar somehow occupy the same space in my head. Ranmaru is decidedly less eccentric than usual but their current approach and tone feels town to me.

just quoted because kind of funny considering the mornings deaths

LaserGuy: moved down a little because Ranmaru's case made me realise LaserGuy is a player I can't read very well. Also a mild case of OMGUS
Tattertot: keeps hanging around in the vaguely suspicious pile for selectively answering questions directed at them and missing LaserGuy

Laserguy over Tattertot in reads list, but votes Laser instead of tattertot at EoD. No other posts about progression on either of these between those incidents.

I have also prodded Tattertot with regard to their experience in #361 and they have not yet answered.

There has been much discussion on Tattertot’s naturalness in the thread and how they do not appear to have been coached, but I disagree, because there are occasional indications of a more experienced influence in their posts (and if so that the partner is not very active). In #76, they keep their cool regarding Ranmaru’s RVS vote (refer to my thoughts in my Laserguy analysis), and they also make an interesting observation regarding Heury’s claim that he doesn’t try as mafia (an observation they repeat in #147).

Re the cat avatar, I do not see this as a newbie town tell at all, I think it is at best NAI, and at worse it is what it appears to be on the surface, which is an awkward attempt to fake a town tell. But I do believe that if Tattertot is mafia, this clears Heury, since he has the other cat avatar.

Bessie would have hard a hard time switching to Tattertot, especially over laser. a risk to make this connection to clear Heury though if scum.

Unvote

I believe that Swiss should always be the yeet D2 if he's not Vig (barring some pretty unlikely scenarios) and therefore he needs to shoot tonight. I have my doubts regarding ranmaru , I definitely don't support yeeting bessie and DB is town. I generally like LaserGuy and while he proved that he can fool me I don't think he's the right choice today. I'm not a fan of Tattertot's recent vote-switchings but I can't really evaluate him due to unfamiliarity with his style (I've seen too many bad plays from less experienced town-players to take it for granted that this is scum-indicative). somitomi comes off natural, I would have to re-read to look at any case against him. I definitely want to reread Heury.

Sabrar expresses doubts regarding Ran so maybe thats where the shot comes from?

I'm feeling better on somitomi.

These are quotes that to me fall into the 'somi goofing around' category, thereby indicating towniness by your meta-read. Can you quickly link your case on him?

Kind of a weird choice for scum!Somi to kill Sabrar over someone else tonight. Problem is they could suspect the vig from Sabrar's and Swiss''s interactoins so that taints nk analysis a bit.

Bessie -

There is no interaction from Bessie towards my slot on her part through out the whole game unless I prod her with a question. #235 #361 (#291)
In addition, lack of response to some of my questions to her. (About reads and her vote)
She has little progression on Somi before she places him as her dedicated tunnel in #249. (#213 in her #235, #306 in her #361)
Her tone is off in #441 and #443.
She asks her scumread to re-evaluate his avatar stance, not wording you use toward a scumread.
She also hedges while having him placed as her dedicated tunnel. Lack of conviction.
Does not use 'town lean' in reference to her town read of me, and instead uses 'will self-resolve'.

Spoiler: Bessie Context

Now this is odd. In her #441, she has me as second town to DeadBananas. Yes this is how she describes it. She never mentions the word 'town lean'. It's so odd that she'd mention I'd self resolve while she has me high in her town list, she should have reasoning to support this but she doesn't feel the need to explain.

Now, before this post, the only progression she has towards Somitomi is her stating he missed the point. (Then hedging to imply that he deliberately missed the point) Notice that she tells him to please re-evaluate. That's not something you say to your for sure scum-read.

I think the latter does not hold when she said 'please re-evaluate'.

---

Now let us proceed with Bessie's Lack of interaction with my slot:

Nothing in response. (Also by the way the line was way too long so I skipped) This isn't game content, but it's the easiest way to see that she is responding to statements of being away, yet only likes my post and intentionally ignores it.

So you see, at first I thought this was a personal decision. It didn't hit me until her reads list that this may be scum motivated. It just seemed odd that she'd intentionally ignore my slot while having me as top town for most of the game. I was mostly directing questions to her and there were times she had not responded.

In Short, her tone seemed fine, however it was a temporary town lean until she showed that her content would match the tone, and it does not. Her tone in her reads list matches her scum meta. She lacks conviction and uses the term 're-evaluate' toward a scumread, and the term 'will self resolve' to describe a strong town read. Also has lack of interactions with my slot unless prodded from my side. Lack of responses to some of my questions towards her.

LaserGuy -

The confidence point still applies.
#178 He pressure votes Somi with an incorrect meta interpretation, and when Somi points this out, Laser doesn't address it.
#190 His Somitomi read does not refer to his vote on Somi. His read is weak and also un-fair when you account for the fact Somi was catching up.
#252 He now questions Somi why he didn't react.
#275 Lack of response to Somi's #275. Does not line up with his desire to be accurate as outlined in his #260.
#380 He gives a much different meta definition for Somi, when he has given a seperate description of Somi's meta in Midnight OP. (He was mafia when he mentioned this though, however he gave it as a response to townleaning him [Somitomi was Town] there, and having seen his scum game and correctly reading him as scum, I feel it was accurate, compare to the meta interpretation he gives this game while scumleaning him)

In short, Laser lacks confidence, and in turn, his scumreads are also weak and a stretch. His lack of response to Somi also shows that he has no desire to correctly determine Somi's alignment and instead simply push for him using faulty meta. When prompted to respond, he states he still doesn't see enough snark, which isn't a satisfactory response to Somi.

Bringing Ranmaru's final scum reads besides Tattertot up. Could be possible Sabrar shot Ranmaru over the Bessie read?

Nothing in response.

I just thought this was funny. Being awarded an official Bessie seal of approval is pretty important.

Now. I am going to 1v2 Bessie and Laser. From here on out, if I change my read, Lynch me. If One of Bessie / Laser flips town, lynch me. If Somitomi flips scum, lynch me.

Since tattertot flipped scum, meaning one of Bessie/Laser had to flip town, Sabrar followed through?

I developed some reservations regarding bessie but not enough to participate in her yeet from scratch while she's absent. I also debated a LaserGuy-bessie pair but I doubt that they would commit to the same wagon (somi) while neither of them was in any danger.

Possible reason for Bessie to kill Sabrar. tainted by vig still ofc.

Deadbananas: I want you to consider what path to take when you might be wrong on Heury. I realize that for a while he was your only scum read. I think you have been doing a great job. I will say, don't take Bessie's tone for granted. We've already talked about Laser. I want you to keep an eye on them if I'm dead. Go back to my #490 when you have time to re-read the game. Best of all, do your best. (I know you were, but more so, continue doing your best)

I'll certainly try. I'm looking into Bessie's tone. I've busted out Sumting occasionally and compared posts to see if there's a difference in scum bessie there vs bessie here. I've noticed some similarities in tone, and some differences. But its been a year almost since then.

Somitomi: I want you to reconsider your town lean on Bessie. I think it is understandable why you noted an inconsistency with her this game. I think she intentionally faked her tone at the beginning to throw town off. I want you to read #490 and if I'm dead, keep an eye on Bessie and Laser. Again I have to stress that I think your problem you may be having with Swiss may simply be a playstyle clash.

unlikely Somi kills Ranmaru after this.

Its ok Sabrar I just woke up from a nightmare anyway. And .... woke up to a nightmare?

Not voting Laser.

Bessie does hold ground here, but switching to laser here would be suspicious. From what I remember of Bessie in sumting, she isn't a busser though, and I got the impression bussing wasn't big on this site. So she might do more to defend Tattertot here if partners?

Goddamn, one minute left...
Vote: LaserGuy
I'll sheep ran for now

Again, Tattertot was lower on your last reads list than Laserguy, with nothing indicating any reason this would change. Perhaps Somi was hoping Ran would be alive today, but the vig shot messed that up? Can't see Somi killing Ran in this situation.

Town
Heury
Swiss
Laser

Bessie

Somi
Scum

somitomi why did you decide to vote Laser over Tatterot despite having Tattertot lower in your last reads list?

I want to see things develop between Somi and Bessie, and properly digest Bessie's response to Ran's case more. My wrists hurt from typing and class today so I'm going off for now.

 

[Deadbananas]

Damn, my reads list has almost flipped from before. Crazy EoD

 

[HeuryAlone]

Swiss's tone today seems town, but not willing to let them off the hook yet. Still waiting for swiss's answer for as to why the fake claimed vig.

 

[somitomi]

Honestly, I didn't have the mental capacity to think about this game over the night period, in fact I didn't even properly read the last couple pages of D1 that happened after I went to bed on Saturday until today.

bessie - Town. Cleared by #553 and #558.

Swiss - Town. Cleared by #524 and #540 .

Heury Alone - Town. Cleared by, among others, #399.

Deadbananas - Towniest Town that ever Towned.

Based on such simple wagonomics LaserGuy is also cleared by #481, so either Deadbananas pulled a fast one on all of us or Tatter got bussed. I'm going to trust the rest of town about Deadbananas and explore the other option a bit:
Bessie is not the kind of player to bus a newbie mate on D1 in my opinion. This ties into the coaching discussion somewhat, because I think she'd try to advise a new player in scumchat in a situation like this. I'll have to go over bessie's interactions with Tatter, but I think this isn't very likely.
LaserGuy initially gave Tattertot a town lean and voted me for a long time before switching to Tatter (see above), funnily enough in reaction to Swiss voting me. This put Tattertot first instead of me and Laser stayed on Tatter in #517, although with some apparent reluctance. I can't say if LaserGuy would bus his mate so early. HeuryAlone bessie What do you think?
As a footnote, I remember some connections between LaserGuy and Tattertot were pointed out, most notably the latter missing LG in their reads list here.
This is my first game with Swiss, so I don't know if they'd bus and from what I can recall, the same applies to everyone alive. Looking at Swiss's progression on Tattertot I noted that they were in favor of Heury over Tatter in #405 and then seems to favor me (while also calling Tatter out for lurking) in #474. When Swiss eventually voted Tattertot (see above), Tatter was already leading the vote and there was no sign of the last-minute LaserGuy wagon. On the whole, that's not really an ironclad clear to me.

why did you decide to vote Laser over Tatterot despite having Tattertot lower in your last reads list?

It was a flash decision made in panic, mostly because Ran's case on LG has been brewing in my head and with two of my townreads going for a blitz I was easily influenced I guess.

Swiss's tone today seems town, but not willing to let them off the hook yet. Still waiting for swiss's answer for as to why the fake claimed vig.

I'd like to know that as well.

Heury
Deadbananas

bessie
Swiss
LaserGuy

 

[Deadbananas]

I'm going to trust the rest of town about Deadbananas

Deadbananas: obvtown

I'm a bit confused about this Somi. Are you saying that your read on me is copied from others?

 

[bessie]

I have no results I want to claim. I am not the vig.

HeuryAlone , please respond to my question to you in #565.

Since no one claimed vig, my initial evaluation is that Sabrar was killed by mafia, and Vig!Sabrar shot Ranmaru.

I just started a new job, so I'm not going to be around as much as before.

Congratulations on your new job!

Okay, I'm not the vig either. I used a cop on Heury and got a town result.

Why Heury?
Note: LaserGuy also asked this in #589. And Swiss in #609 .
Pre post edit: somitomi hasn't answered this.

Odd gambit by scum somi though, to clear Heury

Perhaps. Perhaps not.

IDK why people didn't use their abilities last night.

Somi couldn't have known he wasn't tracked or that Heury wasn't watched last night. Hell of a gambit. Makes me wonder.

Possibilities:
(1) There might not be any more town powers, since each was rolled randomly and could be zero.
(2) Mafia got the powers. I’ve played this setup before. It was a larger game with a serial killer, and IIRC the serial killer got three powers, including the vig kill.
(3) Sabrar and Ranmaru had all the powers, since anyone can have up to three.

Bessie - ostensibly off wagon, I wasn't there, so I don't know how close the timing between Bessie's vote and Wam's deadline call was. I see Bessie's vote as a counter to Somi's vote, since it came after Somi's vote, and Bessie was previously voting Somi.

I switched my vote as soon as I saw somitomi and posted at the same time as Wam.

Bessie would have hard a hard time switching to Tattertot, especially over laser. a risk to make this connection to clear Heury though if scum.

What makes you say this, especially in reference to my reads list #441 which you quoted?

Kind of a weird choice for scum!Somi to kill Sabrar over someone else tonight. Problem is they could suspect the vig from Sabrar's and Swiss''s interactoins so that taints nk analysis a bit.

Meta would make sense. Sabrar was one of the stronger players on our home site. Who did you think would be more logical for the mafia kill? Do you not think mafia had that same thought and was avoiding a power role?

Bringing Ranmaru's final scum reads besides Tattertot up. Could be possible Sabrar shot Ranmaru over the Bessie read?

WIFOM for me to say this, but I think this is probably part of the reason.

LaserGuy initially gave Tattertot a town lean and voted me for a long time before switching to Tatter (see above), funnily enough in reaction to Swiss voting me. This put Tattertot first instead of me and Laser stayed on Tatter in #517, although with some apparent reluctance. I can't say if LaserGuy would bus his mate so early. HeuryAlone bessie What do you think?

I think bussing is a very illogical strategy in this setup. If someone bussed, I think it is Heury. And if it is Heury he moves up to my top tier as a player because that is BoomFrog/Zen level play.

It was a flash decision made in panic, mostly because Ran's case on LG has been brewing in my head and with two of my townreads going for a blitz I was easily influenced I guess.

You signed off for the evening on Saturday #435 . Here it is so you don't have to look it up:

I'm singing off for the evening, hopefully I'll be able to check in right before the deadline but it' not guaranteed.

Ranmaru’s “Game Winning Reads” were #490 .
You didn’t return until one minute before deadline. When did you read Ran’s LaserGuy case?

Reminder, you claimed this in the first sentence of this post:

Honestly, I didn't have the mental capacity to think about this game over the night period, in fact I didn't even properly read the last couple pages of D1 that happened after I went to bed on Saturday until today.

 

[HeuryAlone]

Explain why. Also explain why you didn't say anything about this on D1, if this is something you "always" support.

I'd say about least 80% of games I've played with a vig, they kill a town. And a good role for mafia to claim if there's low risk of counter claim. This wasn't a mentality I had for just this game, but a in general mentality. I didn't see a reason to bring it up since swiss was not a good choice for d1 lynch.

 

[Deadbananas]

What makes you say this, especially in reference to my reads list #441 which you quoted?

ah sorry. that's backward. I meant you would have had a hard time switching to laser, especially over tattertot. Since laser was much higher in your list than tattertot and you had gone in on tattertot in your reads list.

Meta would make sense. Sabrar was one of the stronger players on our home site. Who did you think would be more logical for the mafia kill? Do you not think mafia had that same thought and was avoiding a power role?

Maybe I put too much stock into wagons, but personally I was expecting the mafia kill being on Heury, or maybe Swiss. I thought about myself and you, since we were both pretty townread the other day, but due to my position being on the same wagon as Tattertot, and your EoD kerfluffle and the cases on you towards EoD, I thought it unlikely. This is all read independant ofc. If different people were mafia they'd be biased towards targeting a different person whose reads are what they want.

And sure, mafia could want to avoid a doctor or a watcher if they don't have a ninja so they didn't pick a super obvious target, but I wasn't expecting it to be any body off the Tattertot wagon. For one, if the mafia member was on the laserguy wagon, with the competing wagon flipping mafia, they would want others around I think to have some barrier yeets. In this situation, if Somi Nightkilled Sabrar, they would have known that a good amount of suspicion would be on them for their wagon position, and that the other person in the wagon position with them is Ranmaru, who was pretty widely town read.

Maybe scum!somi wanted sabrar gone because they thought he was vig bad enough to take that risk, and thought Ran would help them fight out since he'd had Somi's back before. If so thats pretty hilariously bad luck for them lol. I can't see why Somi would shoot Ran if he was the nk. I think I tend to overanalyze nightkills, I remembering being stuck on Laser dying night 1 in sumting and the confusion about me getting targeted and killing 3DS. But my main problem with yeeting Somi is that they had to target either Sabrar or Ranmaru, probably Sabrar, and thats just a weird play IMO.

If scum!Somi I'd expect the kill on either me, for supporting them and being townread, or Heury, for being nearly town clear.

If scum!Bessie, I would expect the kill on Heury for being a cat for being nearly town clear, or one of Ran or Sabrar to focus attention onto Somi today.

thats a reason you've fallen lower in my list. Granted you both certainly have different perspectives than me, but since I don't know either of you that well, I just assumed I took your shoes, so when I ran my analysis last night this is what I came up with for both of you.

 

[Deadbananas]

To be clear, that's not a major reason, I know there's definitely flaws in my analysis and also got similar targets for other candidates. I still think it's worth thinking about, and would be interested to hear who you thought would be targeted.

 

[bessie]

Ok, I’ll play.

N1 Target picks:
Town watcher – Deadbananas
Town tracker – somitomi
Town cop – I would hold this until N2
Town doctor - Deadbananas
Mafia night kill – Sabrar
Mafia rolecop – Heury, but I don’t think this would be used N1 over Godfather or Ninja

 

[LaserGuy]

Based on such simple wagonomics LaserGuy is also cleared by #481

This is true. Also by #519 and #559, and probably others.

LaserGuy initially gave Tattertot a town lean and voted me for a long time before switching to Tatter (see above), funnily enough in reaction to Swiss voting me. This put Tattertot first instead of me and Laser stayed on Tatter in #517, although with some apparent reluctance. I can't say if LaserGuy would bus his mate so early. HeuryAlone bessie What do you think?

Yes, I bus often as mafia. This is well known. Would I bus in this particular situation, where I have a newbie buddy to defend, where I could easily switch to one of several other wagons without any complications, where I am in a micro game and losing a member this early is practically lost? Certainly not. I would have moved my vote back to you in #517/519 and you would have been yeeted instead of Tatter.

It was a flash decision made in panic, mostly because Ran's case on LG has been brewing in my head and with two of my townreads going for a blitz I was easily influenced I guess.

I'm just highlighting this again because I'm also very interested in knowing how you managed to read Ran's case after you claimed to have signed off.

View attachment 308418
Heury
Deadbananas

bessie
Swiss
LaserGuy
View attachment 308419

Remind me again why you copped your top Town read instead of any of your scumreads?


Vote: somitomi

 

[somitomi]

I'm a bit confused about this Somi. Are you saying that your read on me is copied from others?

I worded that badly, I meant "I'm gonna trust the rest of town and not question my read". Otherwise this sort of information would make me doubt my own sanity, particularly when it comes to a player I'm not familiar with.

Why Heury?
Note: LaserGuy also asked this in #589. And Swiss in #609 .
Pre post edit: somitomi hasn't answered this.

This was intended as an answer to that, I just failed to quote either post as a context:

Honestly, I didn't have the mental capacity to think about this game over the night period, in fact I didn't even properly read the last couple pages of D1 that happened after I went to bed on Saturday until today.

You didn’t return until one minute before deadline. When did you read Ran’s LaserGuy case?

That wasn't the first time Ranmaru talked about LaserGuy though, it was already outlined in the earlier game winning reads (#216) and then Ran contuniued to discuss it and ask people about it.

Remind me again why you copped your top Town read instead of any of your scumreads?

Because Heury was one of my scumreads on D1 and I got a town result (moving Heury to the top). I fail to see how this would be difficult to follow,

 

[Swiss]

#563 Makes no sense but okay

#564 bessie catch up
Utterly pointless most of it

#578 makes me like Laser. I dislike the fact he said it, but it's a townie thing to do

#583 Somitomi
I like the claim

#590 Heury I'll sit you down post game with a nice chart and crayons

#617 bessie " I have no results I want to claim. I am not the vig." You're the only one left that can add something useful, obviously you did something even if it didn't end up being useful, so what was it? Help me to help you.
" top tier as a player because that is BoomFrog/Zen level play. "
Zen as a top tier player? I nearly fell off my chair
More on the Heury case though, please

 

[Swiss]

somitomi

LaserGuy: moved down a little because Ranmaru's case made me realise LaserGuy is a player I can't read very well. Also a mild case of OMGUS
Tattertot: keeps hanging around in the vaguely suspicious pile for selectively answering questions directed at them and missing LaserGuy
Heury: tough one this, because on one hand
Swiss: all-around not very helpful: didn't really answer my (or Sabrar's) questions about the difference between their reaction to Sabrar and to Heury talking about their scum meta. The attempt to strongly link me and Heury was also very weird, especially now that they jumped off the Heury wagon they were so concered I'd derail earlier.

This is your last reads list.

Given that you inexplicably haven't hard cleared me for not voting Laser and staying on Tattertot when I didn't need to, why did you not cop me?

Just seems odd that you cop Heury

 

[Swiss]

So heury's a tough one, I didn't like their takes on Tattertot and I feel like the "yeet for information" attitude is a good way for scum to do less scumhunting, but their fairly calm response to possibly being eliminated feels townie.

Soft push away from lynching Tatter here. Instead pushing Heury for their Tatter push.

And yet even though Tatter flipped scum, Somi cops Heury?

 

[Swiss]

Wam votecount please

I think:
Somi - Laser, Bessie

So we are L-2

 

[Wam]

Vote count - 4 votes to lynch.

Bessie - 1 - Heury alone
Somitomi - 2 - bessie, laserguy

Not voting
Somitomi, deadbananas, swiss

 

[Swiss]

Also let's keep the activity up guys. I lost/quit my big 'Swiss is back' game because of craziness.

I want this one to be a clean sweep where everyone lauds me post game.

 

[bessie]

Swiss, I did not use any powers last night.

 

[Swiss]

My disappointment is immeasurable

 

[Deadbananas]

 

[Deadbananas]

Also let's keep the activity up guys. I lost/quit my big 'Swiss is back' game because of craziness.

I want this one to be a clean sweep where everyone lauds me post game.

the game is definitely starting to feel a bit stagnant. It might just be because Ran is gone and he was a big conversation starter and poster. But also its hard to find new content to give opinions on so far, especially since I think we are going to win right now due to getting Tattertot on the first night. My only hangup on Somi is the night kill, and since I only really have one other candidate for that, and we are guaranteed a next day, I feel comfortable. I'm still interested in what Somi has to say, and my opinion isn't locked down, but right now its mainly waiting.

 

[Deadbananas]

Mafia
Confirmed Town
Me
Suspected Town
Other
start of page 14 VC
Tattertot - 3 -, Heury Alone, LaserGuy, Ranmaru
Huery Alone - 2 - Deadbananas, Tattertot
Somitomi - 2 - Bessie, Swiss
Swiss - 2 - somitomi, Sabrar

Final VC
Tattertot - 3 -, Heury Alone, LaserGuy, Swiss -- (Bessie)
Huery Alone - 2 - Deadbananas, Tattertot
Somitomi - 1 - Bessie,
Laserguy - 3 - ranmaru, sabrar, somitomi

Going to play devil's advocate a bit here and make a case for Bessie over Somi, would like people's thoughts.
The question here is who is scummier on the wagons. Somi and Sabrar both switch from Swiss to Laserguy, following Ran who switched from Tattertot. Somi is following out two confirmed towns. Bessie voted, claiming her vote to be a counter to Somi's vote. At the point Bessie entered the thread, the only viable wagons were either Tattertot, or Laser, unless Somi switched to Heury. Bessie is a smart, meticulous player from what i've seen. At this point, I'd guess that Bessie knows the rules regarding a vote tie, and that Tattertot will die either way. Bessie can't vote for Laser here, because that would contradict here reads list and position and reveal her to be scum. Ignoring Wam's deadline post, Bessie knows Tatter is dead either way since no one else is online, this is a good excuse for them to pop onto Tattertot's wagon and get some cred without actually bussing since he would have died anyway.

This brings up the problem of Bessie and Tattertot being mates in the first place. Tattertot mentioned being only online at limited hours, and Bessie is as well. If their hours didn't online well, perhaps Bessie would be unable to help Tattertot much since whenever he was on he had new questions to answer from people.

Bessie then kills Sabrar since Sabrar knows her really well and is worried he would call her out, as well as allowing the vote to focus on Somi for today, her primary scumread, securing an easy day today.

My main reason for having Bessie top of my list yesterday, was I felt her posts were unbiased, and lacking agenda overall. This could result from Tattertot and her schedules not aligning as mentioned earlier, and her not wanting to interact much with him, as she mainly didn't during the rise of the case on Tattertot.

---
That's what I have on Bessie.

I think Yeeting somi and Bessie always results in a win here, unless someone ultra-bussed Tattertot, but that's incredibly unlikely and they would deserve to win.

 

[Deadbananas]

Looking at Swiss's progression on Tattertot I noted that they were in favor of Heury over Tatter in #405 and then seems to favor me (while also calling Tatter out for lurking) in #474. When Swiss eventually voted Tattertot (see above), Tatter was already leading the vote and there was no sign of the last-minute LaserGuy wagon. On the whole, that's not really an ironclad clear to me.

Somi, Swiss could have just switched to Heury. This would have put it at 3 first and secured Heury being the yeet. Why do you think scum!Swiss would not do that?

 

[Deadbananas]

Swiss still interested in what you did last night.

 

[LaserGuy]

I'm in basically the same boat as DB. I feel we probably have the solve and am happy to see a flip.

Pedit

I don't think bessie is likely ever scum here. Tattertot's play I really not consistent with having a strong mentor like bessie.

 

[Deadbananas]

I'm in basically the same boat as DB. I feel we probably have the solve and am happy to see a flip.

Pedit

I don't think bessie is likely ever scum here. Tattertot's play I really not consistent with having a strong mentor like bessie.

thats my main struggle with Bessie, only thing I could see causing that is the time sync issues. But still I think its unlikely.

 

[Swiss]

I tracked Bessie, got nothing

 

[Swiss]

I'm still Somi > Bessie > Rest of class