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Wam's Chaos Game Thread

LaserGuy

Smash Ace
Joined
Apr 11, 2020
Messages
569
Location
In Quarantine
Why would I say I saw DB night kill then vote you?
You didn't say DB did it. You only said you saw the kill. My considerations were:
-Swiss is Town and saw DB makes the kill -> Swiss claims vs. DB.
-Swiss is scum and fakes his claim -> Swiss claims vs. me
-Swiss is Town and fakes his claim -> Swiss claims vs. me

So if you had voted DB, you are probably Town. If you were mafia or dumb Town, you would fake claim vs. me.
 

Deadbananas

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Apr 12, 2020
Messages
341
Well that was an interesting exchange. On mobile so quotes are a bit out of order
Interesting.
I am vanilla, as I said.
Lasers reaction to what he reads as Swiss claiming to have watched/tracked the nightkill. Seems very chill for something like this.
I didn't read it that way, but looking back I can kind of see how you would, since Swiss asks for actions right after, besides seeing the nightkill. Your reaction is justified by your analysis, since it gives you more info to stay still. The analysis seems kind of paranoid though.
Ok I’ll need to make my case today.

And DB no I didn’t write it overnight partly because I’m lazy but partly because I was hoping Heury would die as this killer loves wifom.

I think the last scum is Laser and since if I’m wrong it’s game over I am going to

Vote: Laser
I don't blame you, I was also lazier than I should have been overnight, this game is draining.

Got you rattled there though didn’t I.

DB assuming you don’t hammer Laser here - what do you make of that?
Analysis should be at the top of this post. I find it a bit odd, since it shows a pretty far departure from me and laser's interpretation, when in the last few days I felt we've been pretty in sync.
 

Deadbananas

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Apr 12, 2020
Messages
341
I should be off and on for the next 3 hours, then I'll be driving and won't be on as much for the rest of Easter weekend. Should still pop in occasionally like the last few weekends.
 

LaserGuy

Smash Ace
Joined
Apr 11, 2020
Messages
569
Location
In Quarantine
My live read is that Swiss is probably Town here. I will take a closer look at Bananas tonight when I'm not on mobile.
 

LaserGuy

Smash Ace
Joined
Apr 11, 2020
Messages
569
Location
In Quarantine
Mostly just talking out loud to help organize my thoughts.

So if DB is mafia he is an absolute beast and I have huge respect for the effort he's put in.

One thing that I noticed on reread was that Tattertot was very focused on the two now-confirmed townies that were pushing him (Ran/Heury). I had noted earlier that he also seemed aware that Swiss was around but was more ambivalent about him. It's interesting to try to fit DB into this schema. I had forgotten how hard DB pushed Tatter early in the game (#57, #65, #75, #103, etc.). His read moves away from hard scum up to nullTown (#209), then back down to scumread, but prefers Swiss/Heury (#305, #450). DB's progression here feels very natural. What bothers me is that Tattertot never brings up DB's pressure on him in any of his analysis (#76, #147, #236). Although he replies to DB's questions, he never directly comments on DB at all except for his reads in #236, and this read itself is very generic.

Tatter's #452 where he settles on Heury is a post that deeply troubles me. It's in response to DB's #450 where he makes a weak case for Heury, Tatter jumps on. DB's #454 is good... paranoia about a scumread jumping onto his wagon so easily feels very natural to me, though it's interesting that this doesn't motivate DB to reconsider his vote (#456). Though this leads me to another point I've been thinking a lot about. DB's general lack of townie paranoia, especially right now. Like, we're in LYLO and although DB hasn't explicitly said as much, but it's pretty clear that he views me as pretty definitely town (#817, #845), and defended my case pretty hard vs. Swiss in D3... I don't get the impression he ever really considered the possibility that, for example, I might be scum trying to push a case to end the game vs. a townie, or even really that I might just be wrong. He doesn't try to poke holes in my logic or even really question me about it, he jumps straight to pushing against Swiss.

I'm noting that he's been basing a lot of his recent posting more on VCA and NKA than on actual behaviour analysis. This isn't necessarily scummy per se as these can be valid approaches to solving the game if used judiciously, but it is also a tactic scum can employ to avoid confrontation and still look busy. DB's only really strong push this game was back in D1 against Tatter and Heury, and since then he's been fairly content to go with the townie consensus. His case on bessie, for example (#634), is pure speculation, not actually really investigating her content. I think it's plausible DB was giving himself a cover story for if he were seen visiting her in the night when he did the NK, not necessarily actually intending to push her here.

The flip side of this is really just that DB has so solidly townie for the entire game, it's really hard for me to believe it. I said earlier that if either he or Heury were scum I would be fine eating the loss, and I pretty much still stand by that... but I still like to win so I need to work this out.

Mostly just talking out loud to help organize my thoughts.

So if DB is mafia he is an absolute beast and I have huge respect for the effort he's put in.

One thing that I noticed on reread was that Tattertot was very focused on the two now-confirmed townies that were pushing him (Ran/Heury). I had noted earlier that he also seemed aware that Swiss was around but was more ambivalent about him. It's interesting to try to fit DB into this schema. I had forgotten how hard DB pushed Tatter early in the game (#57, #65, #75, #103, etc.). His read moves away from hard scum up to nullTown (#209), then back down to scumread, but prefers Swiss/Heury (#305, #450). DB's progression here feels very natural. What bothers me is that Tattertot never brings up DB's pressure on him in any of his analysis (#76, #147, #236). Although he replies to DB's questions, he never directly comments on DB at all except for his reads in #236, and this read itself is very generic.

Tatter's #452 where he settles on Heury is a post that deeply troubles me. It's in response to DB's #450 where he makes a weak case for Heury, Tatter jumps on. DB's #454 is good... paranoia about a scumread jumping onto his wagon so easily feels very natural to me, though it's interesting that this doesn't motivate DB to reconsider his vote (#456). Though this leads me to another point I've been thinking a lot about. DB's general lack of townie paranoia, especially right now. Like, we're in LYLO and although DB hasn't explicitly said as much, but it's pretty clear that he views me as pretty definitely town (#817, #845), and defended my case pretty hard vs. Swiss in D3... I don't get the impression he ever really considered the possibility that, for example, I might be scum trying to push a case to end the game vs. a townie, or even really that I might just be wrong. He doesn't try to poke holes in my logic or even really question me about it, he jumps straight to pushing against Swiss.

I'm noting that he's been basing a lot of his recent posting more on VCA and NKA than on actual behaviour analysis. This isn't necessarily scummy per se as these can be valid approaches to solving the game if used judiciously, but it is also a tactic scum can employ to avoid confrontation and still look busy. DB's only really strong push this game was back in D1 against Tatter and Heury, and since then he's been fairly content to go with the townie consensus. His case on bessie, for example (#634), is pure speculation, not actually really investigating her content. I think it's plausible DB was giving himself a cover story for if he were seen visiting her in the night when he did the NK, not necessarily actually intending to push her here.

The flip side of this is really just that DB has so solidly townie for the entire game, it's really hard for me to believe it. I said earlier that if either he or Heury were scum I would be fine eating the loss, and I pretty much still stand by that... but I still like to win so I need to work this out.


On to Swiss...

So I've had kind of a simmering doubt about Swiss since around #751. I think my case on him is pretty solid, but he's posted a series of posts like #751, #760, #772, #781, #826, #827,

On to Swiss...

So I've had kind of a simmer doubt about Swiss since around #751. I think my case on him is pretty solid, but he's posted a series of posts like #751, #760, #772, #781, especially #788, #826, #827 that all have that super townie vibe that I really strongly trust. I don't think scum!Swiss backs down against me in #842. He has to push a townie and townie is always going to crossvote him. The most likely reason he does this is he's Town and he's suddenly terrified that he's voting Town and needs to get rid of his vote before the third guy shows up.

That's all I've got for right now. Going to sleep on this before I commit.
 

LaserGuy

Smash Ace
Joined
Apr 11, 2020
Messages
569
Location
In Quarantine
Or rather that the whole thing is doubled up. I really hate this boards sometimes. Okay, this is what it's supposed to look like:

Mostly just talking out loud to help organize my thoughts.

So if DB is mafia he is an absolute beast and I have huge respect for the effort he's put in.

One thing that I noticed on reread was that Tattertot was very focused on the two now-confirmed townies that were pushing him (Ran/Heury). I had noted earlier that he also seemed aware that Swiss was around but was more ambivalent about him. It's interesting to try to fit DB into this schema. I had forgotten how hard DB pushed Tatter early in the game (#57, #65, #75, #103, etc.). His read moves away from hard scum up to nullTown (#209), then back down to scumread, but prefers Swiss/Heury (#305, #450). DB's progression here feels very natural. What bothers me is that Tattertot never brings up DB's pressure on him in any of his analysis (#76, #147, #236). Although he replies to DB's questions, he never directly comments on DB at all except for his reads in #236, and this read itself is very generic.

Tatter's #452 where he settles on Heury is a post that deeply troubles me. It's in response to DB's #450 where he makes a weak case for Heury, Tatter jumps on. DB's #454 is good... paranoia about a scumread jumping onto his wagon so easily feels very natural to me, though it's interesting that this doesn't motivate DB to reconsider his vote (#456). Though this leads me to another point I've been thinking a lot about. DB's general lack of townie paranoia, especially right now. Like, we're in LYLO and although DB hasn't explicitly said as much, but it's pretty clear that he views me as pretty definitely town (#817, #845), and defended my case pretty hard vs. Swiss in D3... I don't get the impression he ever really considered the possibility that, for example, I might be scum trying to push a case to end the game vs. a townie, or even really that I might just be wrong. He doesn't try to poke holes in my logic or even really question me about it, he jumps straight to pushing against Swiss.

I'm noting that he's been basing a lot of his recent posting more on VCA and NKA than on actual behaviour analysis. This isn't necessarily scummy per se as these can be valid approaches to solving the game if used judiciously, but it is also a tactic scum can employ to avoid confrontation and still look busy. DB's only really strong push this game was back in D1 against Tatter and Heury, and since then he's been fairly content to go with the townie consensus. His case on bessie, for example (#634), is pure speculation, not actually really investigating her content. I think it's plausible DB was giving himself a cover story for if he were seen visiting her in the night when he did the NK, not necessarily actually intending to push her here.

The flip side of this is really just that DB has so solidly townie for the entire game, it's really hard for me to believe it. I said earlier that if either he or Heury were scum I would be fine eating the loss, and I pretty much still stand by that... but I still like to win so I need to work this out.

On to Swiss...

So I've had kind of a simmering doubt about Swiss since around #751. I think my case on him is pretty solid, but he's posted a series of posts like #751, #760, #772, #781, especially #788, #826, #827 that all have that super townie vibe that I really strongly trust. I don't think scum!Swiss backs down against me in #842. He has to push a townie and townie is always going to crossvote him. The most likely reason he does this is he's Town and he's suddenly terrified that he's voting Town and needs to get rid of his vote before the third guy shows up.

That's all I've got for right now. Going to sleep on this before I commit.
 

Swiss

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Don't get mad - get Swiss
Christ almighty.

I am at a bbq today so Laser can you wait 24 hours before commit, even if it’s a DB commit.

I agree DB has done a lot less recently, and we know he visited Bessie, though in spite of that I was probably going to vote Laser. I had a plan but was told it was against the spirit of the game so couldn’t enact it.

Beer, chicken, beer, hamburger, sleep, mafia.
In that order
 

Deadbananas

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Apr 12, 2020
Messages
341
Tatter's #452 where he settles on Heury is a post that deeply troubles me. It's in response to DB's #450 where he makes a weak case for Heury, Tatter jumps on. DB's #454 is good... paranoia about a scumread jumping onto his wagon so easily feels very natural to me, though it's interesting that this doesn't motivate DB to reconsider his vote (#456). Though this leads me to another point I've been thinking a lot about. DB's general lack of townie paranoia, especially right now. Like, we're in LYLO and although DB hasn't explicitly said as much, but it's pretty clear that he views me as pretty definitely town (#817, #845), and defended my case pretty hard vs. Swiss in D3... I don't get the impression he ever really considered the possibility that, for example, I might be scum trying to push a case to end the game vs. a townie, or even really that I might just be wrong. He doesn't try to poke holes in my logic or even really question me about it, he jumps straight to pushing against Swiss.

I'm noting that he's been basing a lot of his recent posting more on VCA and NKA than on actual behaviour analysis. This isn't necessarily scummy per se as these can be valid approaches to solving the game if used judiciously, but it is also a tactic scum can employ to avoid confrontation and still look busy. DB's only really strong push this game was back in D1 against Tatter and Heury, and since then he's been fairly content to go with the townie consensus. His case on bessie, for example (#634), is pure speculation, not actually really investigating her content. I think it's plausible DB was giving himself a cover story for if he were seen visiting her in the night when he did the NK, not necessarily actually intending to push her here.
Quick post on phone.

This is all fair. I think I've been in a kind of funk since day 2. I just felt like after flipping scum we would win, so it was hard to really push and give it too much extra effort. I tried to revive myself with the case on Bessie, but S you said it came out more speculation since I wasn't really able to convince myself on it, since somi seemed like an obvious scum, and then if not it was just Bessie. That all changed the next day, but the plan for that day was no elim. I didn't want to go to hard that day, since i felt it was going to be wasted anyway, and it'd suck to push someone for them to die and then that leaves me in a hole where scum can push me. There is of course the fear of dying but I was fairly confident I wouldn't because Heury was the obvious target. So when your case came out, from someone who was already my top town, I didn't want to poke holes in it because I thought it would help me decide between Heury and Swiss. I realize that this is a weakness, and I've been trying to wait for Swiss to post his case on you, or me I guess, before I make my final decision, but I'll admit I'm pretty biased towards you being town right now. I just don't see you being scum here, a case on you would have to have a plausible reason why you bus Tatter there, and I can't see a reason that doesn't have a better explanation somewhere else.
 

LaserGuy

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Apr 11, 2020
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569
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In Quarantine
Quick post on phone.

This is all fair. I think I've been in a kind of funk since day 2. I just felt like after flipping scum we would win, so it was hard to really push and give it too much extra effort. I tried to revive myself with the case on Bessie, but S you said it came out more speculation since I wasn't really able to convince myself on it, since somi seemed like an obvious scum, and then if not it was just Bessie. That all changed the next day, but the plan for that day was no elim. I didn't want to go to hard that day, since i felt it was going to be wasted anyway, and it'd suck to push someone for them to die and then that leaves me in a hole where scum can push me. There is of course the fear of dying but I was fairly confident I wouldn't because Heury was the obvious target. So when your case came out, from someone who was already my top town, I didn't want to poke holes in it because I thought it would help me decide between Heury and Swiss. I realize that this is a weakness, and I've been trying to wait for Swiss to post his case on you, or me I guess, before I make my final decision, but I'll admit I'm pretty biased towards you being town right now. I just don't see you being scum here, a case on you would have to have a plausible reason why you bus Tatter there, and I can't see a reason that doesn't have a better explanation somewhere else.
Suppose Swiss had claimed that he had a watcher result showing that I did the night kill, or had a cop result showing I was mafia. Would that change your interpretation of events? Is that a claim you would trust from him?
 

LaserGuy

Smash Ace
Joined
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In Quarantine
I had a plan but was told it was against the spirit of the game so couldn’t enact it.
I'm curious about what you were thinking here, but if it's already been ruled out of bounds I'm fine leaving it till post if that's more appropriate.
 

Swiss

Smash Ace
Joined
Oct 27, 2008
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Don't get mad - get Swiss
nah I don’t mind saying

I was going to vote deadbannas in a post then a very long reasoning post immediately after with an unvote tidily placedin the middle

hoping that you wouldn’t see the unvote and would attempt to hammer, exposing yourself as scum
 

Swiss

Smash Ace
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Oct 27, 2008
Messages
985
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Don't get mad - get Swiss
You can tell my back was up against the wall if that was my best plan lol

Moving on Laser starting to town read me for my paranoia makes me townread him in return. Scum Laser has nothing to gain from wobbling on me as I’m the ‘cooked and ready to eat’ lynch - all he has to do is tuck in.
 

Deadbananas

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Apr 12, 2020
Messages
341
Suppose Swiss had claimed that he had a watcher result showing that I did the night kill, or had a cop result showing I was mafia. Would that change your interpretation of events? Is that a claim you would trust from him?
If he claimed cop I would know he was mafia since there were only two shots available, and I used one and Somi used one. If he claimed he watched you do it, I really wouldn't consider it as anything extra, besides questioning why he would have kept that hidden in his position. Since the claim doesn't matter if I cant trust him overall, I'd want to see his case on you more to see if that made sense, so my judgement would still be all on the case.
 

Deadbananas

Smash Journeyman
Joined
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Messages
341
So I've had kind of a simmer doubt about Swiss since around #751. I think my case on him is pretty solid, but he's posted a series of posts like #751, #760, #772, #781, especially #788, #826, #827 that all have that super townie vibe that I really strongly trust
While I can understand what you see that pings you towny from some of these, Swiss is definitely conveying emotion and indecisiveness here, I think that's just his skill. From this game, especially day 1, Swiss has been an emotional player with a strong personality, so I think that's all totally fakeable. Especially since in some of those posts he worms in opinions that don't aren't justified and advance a scum agenda. Maybe it's my bias here, but in #760, he mentions me as being more " pulling strings in background type", and he had mentioned me being lurky and other stuff before. I've questioned him on that, as I think its an unfair painting of me, and I have yet to see him respond.

I don't think scum!Swiss backs down against me in #842. He has to push a townie and townie is always going to crossvote him. The most likely reason he does this is he's Town and he's suddenly terrified that he's voting Town and needs to get rid of his vote before the third guy shows up.
If I was scum!Swiss here, I would unvote because I know DB is currently more heavily on Laser's side, and my unvoting might get Laser to unvote to cool tensions.

The whole point in voting before the case is for a scum!me to hammer and save time, so it's all a charade anyway. IMO.
 

Deadbananas

Smash Journeyman
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Apr 12, 2020
Messages
341
Im tired from a long drive today, but I'll have more time tomorrow and this week without finals. Can't wait to hopefully not be an idiot and screw up in LYLO again here. But I feel like I'm right here currently.
 

LaserGuy

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Apr 11, 2020
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If he claimed cop I would know he was mafia since there were only two shots available, and I used one and Somi used one. If he claimed he watched you do it, I really wouldn't consider it as anything extra, besides questioning why he would have kept that hidden in his position. Since the claim doesn't matter if I cant trust him overall, I'd want to see his case on you more to see if that made sense, so my judgement would still be all on the case.
But if you can't trust his claim, how can you trust his case? From the perspective of Town!DB, you will get two cases, one of them is going to be from Town, the other is going to be from scum. What you're relying on is that the analysis by the town player is going to be better, more persuasive, than that of the scum player, and go with that. The problem with this approach is that there's no reason that the scum player couldn't be far better at fabricating a case than the Town player is at presenting a compelling scum case. The analysis that you ought to be trusting in this situation is your own, because you are the only person that you can certain is Town. Or, if, in your assessment, you are so certain that Swiss is scum and I am Town, then you don't bother with the cases at all, and vote what you believe to be true.

This weird middle ground that you're trying to occupy doesn't feel right to me. What troubles me is that at this point I can easily envision a situation where scum!DB sees me tunneling Swiss, and sees Swiss indicating that he's probably going to make a push on me, and you're just kind of biding your time hoping that one of us votes the other so you can end the game... something which may have only been thwarted by luck and time zones.

While I can understand what you see that pings you towny from some of these, Swiss is definitely conveying emotion and indecisiveness here, I think that's just his skill. From this game, especially day 1, Swiss has been an emotional player with a strong personality, so I think that's all totally fakeable. Especially since in some of those posts he worms in opinions that don't aren't justified and advance a scum agenda. Maybe it's my bias here, but in #760, he mentions me as being more " pulling strings in background type", and he had mentioned me being lurky and other stuff before. I've questioned him on that, as I think its an unfair painting of me, and I have yet to see him respond.
I don't think lurking per se is a fair characterization of your play. I think I'd probably go with that your play this game, especially the latter half of this game, has been very reactive.

If I was scum!Swiss here, I would unvote because I know DB is currently more heavily on Laser's side, and my unvoting might get Laser to unvote to cool tensions.
I don't think Swiss knows me well enough to expect me to have a change of heart here, but it's possible.
 

Swiss

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Don't get mad - get Swiss
While I can understand what you see that pings you towny from some of these, Swiss is definitely conveying emotion and indecisiveness here, I think that's just his skill. From this game, especially day 1, Swiss has been an emotional player with a strong personality, so I think that's all totally fakeable. Especially since in some of those posts he worms in opinions that don't aren't justified and advance a scum agenda. Maybe it's my bias here, but in #760, he mentions me as being more " pulling strings in background type", and he had mentioned me being lurky and other stuff before. I've questioned him on that, as I think its an unfair painting of me, and I have yet to see him respond.
Thing is, as scum!Swiss here, I would have had to: to sit here and not make a move, hoping a townie would swap their read, as opposed to making a strong case, like a strong player like me would and could, so what's the point?

Why play myself into a corner and pray a townie somehow flips their fairly secure reads
 

Swiss

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Don't get mad - get Swiss
But if you can't trust his claim, how can you trust his case? From the perspective of Town!DB, you will get two cases, one of them is going to be from Town, the other is going to be from scum. What you're relying on is that the analysis by the town player is going to be better, more persuasive, than that of the scum player, and go with that. The problem with this approach is that there's no reason that the scum player couldn't be far better at fabricating a case than the Town player is at presenting a compelling scum case. The analysis that you ought to be trusting in this situation is your own, because you are the only person that you can certain is Town. Or, if, in your assessment, you are so certain that Swiss is scum and I am Town, then you don't bother with the cases at all, and vote what you believe to be true.

This weird middle ground that you're trying to occupy doesn't feel right to me. What troubles me is that at this point I can easily envision a situation where scum!DB sees me tunneling Swiss, and sees Swiss indicating that he's probably going to make a push on me, and you're just kind of biding your time hoping that one of us votes the other so you can end the game... something which may have only been thwarted by luck and time zones.



I don't think lurking per se is a fair characterization of your play. I think I'd probably go with that your play this game, especially the latter half of this game, has been very reactive.



I don't think Swiss knows me well enough to expect me to have a change of heart here, but it's possible.
So the reasoning on this 2nd top section sets me as Laser!Town and I'll ride or die on that. Exactly my thoughts and read on the game state. I'm almost hesitant to admit this since I don't want Laser to think I'm flipping my opinion of him too fast and then ruin his current flipping to me as town also.

Laser this is my 2nd game in 10 years, and you weren't in my first.
 

Swiss

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Don't get mad - get Swiss
Vote: DeadBananas

Assuming DB is scum how crazy is it earlier this day, in LyLo, me and Laser were voting each other. Must be one of the closest games of Mafia in a very long time.

I cannot see Scum!Laser flipping his read on me, there's no tactical gain as DB would have voted me before him, and he's not a flair player, he just wants the W.
 

Swiss

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Don't get mad - get Swiss
And I think the spider in the background pulling the strings is a very accurate description of DB this game.

The lynches and sus were all set up, he just had to run through the day phases.
 

Swiss

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Oct 27, 2008
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Don't get mad - get Swiss
And Laser if somehow you were scum, and were doing this all for flair and to just completely dunk on me, I have an incredible amount of respect for you.
 

LaserGuy

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Apr 11, 2020
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569
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In Quarantine
Anyway, I think I'm happy with this ending.

GG all. DB, assuming you're scum, you played a hell of game.

Vote: Deadbananas

@
Wam: Hammer
 

Wam

Smash Ace
Joined
Sep 2, 2020
Messages
693
That was hammer.

Final votals

Deadbananas- 2 - swiss, laserguy

Not voting - deadbannas

Deadbananas has been lynched they were mafia.

Game over town win.
 

ranmaru

Smash Legend
Joined
Feb 10, 2008
Messages
13,289
Switch FC
SW-0654 7794 0698
Every time I see Ranmaru view the thread I know that he’s willing me on. Looking down on me from heaven
No, I was praying from heaven and giving you blessings my son.
 

ranmaru

Smash Legend
Joined
Feb 10, 2008
Messages
13,289
Switch FC
SW-0654 7794 0698
Shout outs later but, Deadbananas good game. You almost had it.
 
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