Riddle me this.
Why is this a priority over your scum picks?
Because a RC always reeks of desperation. Well, at least blatant ones that put a target on your back.
Either way we're losing you in this cycle. If we don't lynch you now, mafia has a very linear night 2 ahead of them. If we lynch you now, they have to think for themselves who to kill. We get more info from that than them just off and killing you.
That's assuming you are medic. You could be mafia, just trying to stay in.
*Missing Person thinks out loud mode, I'm prefacing it this way on here since it's my first time playing here, and you guys won't think I'm a raving lunatic.*
But then why roleclaim medic? That's something I have to look at right now. As mafia, you'd have to know a roleclaim would result in one of two actions:
1. You get lynched today.
2. You get lynched day 3 when you don't turn up dead on night 2.
So now here we go. Time to think a little more into this. What would mafia gain out of this line?
1. You're the rolecop, and you're still looking for the traitor or the medic.
2. You're the role block and think you've figured out who the real medic is to block him.
Keeping you alive for one more night gives mafia one last chance to figure things out or really put a hurt on the civs.
That's something I don't like the possibility of, but you ultimately have a 2/11 chance of getting assigned those roles, so it's still slim-ish, but not slim enough to discount.
I think #2 is the least likely, and not as useful, so most likely, if it's true that you're mafia and trying to stay your execution, then it's most likely 1. That gives me 11% chance of being right right now, and 9% chance of that having happened at game start.
But the question is, would mafia be thinking this far ahead to be making these plays? I think it's possible, or I wouldn't be debating it.
Otherwise, you're civ. right now I'm at 89% I think to get mafia out. I highly doubt you're role-block if you're mafia.
Another thing to factor in is that Dabuz/Orbo started out with a spat over that little question that I pushed on. I think if you're civ, FML is mafia, and vice versa. I can either walk into day 3 with more confidence on my read of who FML is, or I walk into it with neither a big suspect or a most likely ally if I lynch him and you're killed night 2.
So I'm kind of willing to take that gamble for the time being.