I think he'll be mid tier, but I'm thinking that without customizations. If customizations are legal then IDK, anything could happen. I'm of the opinion that they shouldn't be legal (although I think we should experiment with them still). I think it simplifies the decision making process of the game, also I think the defensive options from custom moves like projectiles become much, much better than any of the custom moves could do for aggressive play and a lot of recoveries are just get back to the edge for free. Take a note from PM that making projectiles and recoveries too good is bad.
I got 2nd at a tournament losing to Reflex twice, both times were game 5. The first set I was playing with the counter timber on, game 5 I was up a lot against his wario and he got me off stage and wafted me since Villager's recovery is slow and easy to react to, so I turned on the explosive balloon one between sets. In grands I went down 0-2, I lost one of the games because i had the wrong custom set on and ended up SDing because I though the balloons would explode when I tapped A :/, but after that I started camping his Little Mac a lot with the counter timber, he switched to DDD game 5 and I did the same thing, messed up and SDed again and I got timed out since I couldn't kill him since DDD is heavy and I didn't have any rage and the clock was already low because of the camping I did.
edit: Loser finals got recorded (It was against a Rosalina player, I didn't think he was that great, no offense to him if he's reading this though, the bracket was randomly seeded and a lot of the good players were on the same side) and so did grands. Grands I played really lame with the custom moves on because I had no reason not to, but I generally like being more aggressive than that. I'll post the vids when they go up on youtube