What's funny to me about Google Stadia, especially their apparent comment about killing Microsoft with it, is that in two days Microsoft is having their own conference,
"Project xCloud: The Future of Streaming Xbox Games on Mobile Devices and Beyond," where they'll also reveal that Xbox Games Pass is also coming to Switch.
And Microsoft has already had streaming your Xbox to your PC for a while now, so they've been developing the program and technology for a few years. I'm willing to bet they'll have a better program than whatever Google's throwing out after having nothing much at all to do with game development or software.
Because game streaming is nothing new. Xbox has their program I mentioned above, and Sony has had PlayStation Now, but the problem is that the technology has just never been good enough to fix input latency. But Microsoft's Azure servers are some of the best in the business, so I have more faith in them to produce some good results.
The industry is changing, for sure, and I bet things in 2030 will be crazy compared to how things are right now. But I don't think things will be shaken up all too much.
I think the anticipation is going to be that streaming games to cheaper devices is going to overtake consoles eventually in the same way that streaming TV shows and movies has eclipsed the DVD/Blu-Ray industry. Because buying a game without needing to buy new hardware, or worry about performance or whatever, is appealing for a lot of people. Being able to use the hardware they already have to play any game is a pretty crazy idea.
Problem is, game streaming has dozens more complications than streaming a video. Input latency is one, but also having the server infrastructure to run all of those games without malfunction is another. There's not much that can go wrong with loading a game up on your Xbox, Switch, or PlayStation. There's a lot that can go wrong while streaming it dynamically from thousands of miles away.
I don't think Xbox is dropping out of the console race entirely. They're working on a new Xbox, that's already been confirmed. But Phil Spencer's been pushing for a "gaming beyond generations" philosophy for a few years now, and that's finally starting to take shape. Halo: Master Chief Collection on Steam was something he pushed for, according to Gabe Newell, and Microsoft has said that they want to bring games to people's preferred place to play them, even if it's not on Xbox. So they'll come out with a new Xbox next year, but that will just be an option for those who prefer it. They'll probably do whatever they can to make it appealing, and I expect it to be a much smoother launch than the Xbox One, but they're not going to demand you buy one if you want to play Halo or Forza.
Which is the opposite of Sony's approach, where they've been so isolationist that they didn't budge on crossplay until people were calling them out for months
en masse after literally holding people's Epic accounts hostage. They'll release the PlayStation 5, but their attitudes and policies will likely remain the same, with exclusives never coming to other consoles, or otherwise demanding that the other console versions remain secret and delayed for a year or so (looking at you Crash Bandicoot N'Sane Trilogy). They're the leader in global hardware sales again, so they have no reason to change their gameplan.
Nintendo will last forever at this point. The Gamecube->Wii and Wii U->Switch cycles showed that whatever trouble they may be in, they'll find a way out of it and find success.