Try, Try Again - Second Chance Theory Discussion Thread

[KirbyWorshipper2465]

Not sure I quite follow. So it would be either an old deal that was never resolved until later, or a pack that fills in the gaps of an already-existing series? Am I getting this right?

The former. Street Fighter isn't really hurting for content, but Chun-Li supposedly has been planned for a while (especially if one abides by the "female that looks like a fighting game character, with a flying projectile" rumor that came from Milk-Bosatsu and Mr. H, a while back).

 

[Louie G.]

I disagree on Shantae personally, the spirits being the absolute last in the game feel like evidence that she was nearly absent from the game altogether, not that she was ever heavily considered (how is that considered a plus for her?). Wayforward / Bozon sent the spirits Nintendo's way and they decided to throw them in the game, otherwise there's nothing really clueing us in on Shantae having any presence in Smash's development up until getting that nod at the very end. Wayforward's statements on the matter allude more to the idea that no negotiations had taken place prior to or beyond that.

It feels like a major stretch to compare to the aforementioned Rayman with his presence in BOTH Smash 4 and Ultimate. Both are among the only standalone third party spirits but I dunno, I really can't convince myself that anything about Shantae's situation lends itself too well toward this theory.

Honestly I'm concerned as this thread continues that it may just become crackpot theorycraft and retrofitting for people's MWs showing that with enough mental gymnastics pretty much anyone could fulfill this theory. It may be productive to start organizing the list in the OP a bit differently if we get to that point.
---

Speaking of which, and bringing things back to the usual discussion, I just remembered and I'm surprised that nobody has brought up the "Crash document" directly - which there is evidence of at least existing, but no evidence toward the rumored tidbit about Crash in Smash as an ending stretch goal. Seeing how Activision wanted to strong-arm Crash back into gaming icon status I suppose you could make a case for Activision having approached Nintendo fairly early on. Although I personally don't believe that the Smash part is necessarily in the document at all, nor does it imply the conversation went anywhere meaningful (Bethesda being a clear cut example of "talks" going nowhere).

One more thing worth acknowledging, if we want to hone in on big parts of series that are missing from Smash you could probably make a case for Shin Megami Tensei content being weirdly absent from Joker's pass altogether. Persona has largely become its own thing but it feels a bit odd that we didn't even get a Jack Frost Mii hat or spirit. Just something to consider when thinking about noticeable gaping holes in representation.

 

[SharkLord]

I disagree on Shantae personally, the spirits being the absolute last in the game feel like evidence that she was nearly absent from the game altogether, not that she was ever heavily considered (how is that considered a plus for her?). Wayforward / Bozon sent the spirits Nintendo's way and they decided to throw them in the game, otherwise there's nothing really clueing us in on Shantae having any presence in Smash's development up until getting that nod at the very end. Wayforward's statements on the matter allude more to the idea that no negotiations had taken place prior to or beyond that.

It feels like a major stretch to have alongside the aforementioned Rayman with his presence in BOTH Smash 4 and Ultimate. Both are among the only standalone third party spirits but I dunno, I really can't convince myself that anything about Shantae's situation lends itself too well toward this theory.

Honestly I'm concerned as this thread continues that it may just become crackpot theorycraft and retrofitting for people's MWs showing that with enough mental gymnastics pretty much anyone could fulfill this theory.

Speaking of which, I just remembered and I'm surprised that nobody has brought up the "Crash document" directly - which there is evidence of at least existing, but no evidence toward the rumored tidbit about Crash in Smash as an ending stretch goal. Seeing how Activision wanted to strong-arm Crash back into gaming icon status I suppose you could make a case for Activision having approached Nintendo fairly early on. Although I personally don't believe that the Smash part is necessarily in the document at all, nor does it imply the conversation went anywhere meaningful (Bethesda being a clear cut example of "talks" going nowhere).

I want to keep things open. Interpretation varies between people, and I want to allow for everyone to discuss and debate in here. We could have very few options or a wide selection of candidates, depending on how strict you are with the theory. The thread is for general discussion about Second Chance Theory, and the door's open for some debates regarding how likely some theories are.
I'm try to make sure it's balanced on the first post list, too; I'm adding both theories listed as to why a character could fit the theory, and counterarguments as to why they might ultimately not matter. If you have any arguments regarding those theories, fire away. If you want to defend or add to any theories, that's also fine too.
Admittedly, though, this is all kinda new to me. I'm still figuring out how to order things, how strict is too strict, how loose is too loose, etc. Any pointers as how to run things is much appreciated.

 

[CapitaineCrash]

I already talk about it a bit in the general Newcomer thread, but here I'm going to do a long post about every fighter on this theory and my thoughts on them:

-Monster hunter: I think it's one of the most likely fighter and for being one of the biggest Japanese franchise popular worlwide, I think it could have been consider for base game. I do wonder if the moveset planned for the Hunter was indeed given for Byleth (I think a leaker imply this or something). If that's the case, I don't think that the Hunter is coming.

-Shantae: I don't really see her spirits as evidence that she was planned. It is a bit weird that she's the only third party with an online icon with no playable representation, but I think that's not a really big evidence to think that she will be playable. I still think her chances are low because some of the most popular indies (Sans and Cuphead) got a Mii, so I would be pretty surprised to see her playable.

-Rayman: I'm not sure if Rayman was really considered. My guess is that Ubisoft really wants him in, but Nintendo doesn't because he's not popular enough in Japan. The Ubisoft Mii that we had in wave 5 also hurt his chances I would say.

-Koei Tecmo: It's hard to tell if a Koei tecmo character was really planned, but I feel like Hayabusa is still one of the most likely character, so even without this theory I think it doesn't really change.

-Lloyd and Yuri: I do wonder, if they where really planned for base game why are they not in fighter pass 1? Seems kind of weird, although I think they can still happen, but I have a feeling that Lloyd Mii might come back with Pyra/Mythra so we'll see.

-Katalina: Hitagi confirmed that she's not coming to Smash after some time. Was probably a mistake on Hitagi's side and I think she was never planned.

-Decidueye, Alucard and Chun-li: Seems like they where replaced (by Incineroar, Belmont and Ken respectively) so I doubt they will be back.

-Rhythm heaven: Could happen if Sakurai has more liberty and still wants them, but unsure.

-Ayumi: I think the game localisation was decided way too late (considering that when it was announced, it was Japan exclusive). Beside, Sakurai consider her for Melee (20 years ago) so things might changed for him (more than Chorus kids which was only 6 years ago for Smash 4). Again, could maybe happen if Sakurai was given more liberty, but I don't see it if Nintendo choose the characters.

-Sans/Underatle rep: I think Sans' reaction was way too late and the fighters was most likely decided by that point.

-Isaac: Could happen if Nintendo really wants to please the fan, but with the franchise being dead (and with Camelot working on another sports game) I'm unsure.

So in summary, in my opinion here's how I would place each characters:
-Pretty likely: Monster hunter, Lloyd/Yuri, Hayabusa/Other Koei tecmo rep.
-Could happen if the starts align: Rhythm heaven, Ayumi, Isaac
-Probably won't happen but might have slim chances: Shantae, Chun-li (considering that she's iconic and there's almost no content from modern Street fihgter), Sans (but the timing would be very small for that to happen)
-I personally don't see it: Katalina, Decidueye, Alucard

 

[MrMcNuts]

Just so Rayman doesn't seem like he's being added to this just cause people want him, I'm a just drop these here to remind people that ubisoft has actually pushed for him supposedly.

So there's that

Also alot of people seem to undersell Ray here cause of the not popular in Japan thing and also assuming Nintendo has no interest but:

1. Nintendo was impressed by Rayman Legends enough to publish it in Japan. Hell they allowed 3 trophies in Smash 4 which was something, and a spirit in Ultimate despite not having published any of his games near ultimates release. I definitely think there could be some negotiations behind the scenes but we'll see how far they go.

2. The "not popular in Japan" rule will be broken eventually, and when that gate opens, that will bode well considering Rayman is currently one of the top requests in the west.

 

[zferolie]

I disagree on Shantae personally, the spirits being the absolute last in the game feel like evidence that she was nearly absent from the game altogether, not that she was ever heavily considered (how is that considered a plus for her?). Wayforward / Bozon sent the spirits Nintendo's way and they decided to throw them in the game, otherwise there's nothing really clueing us in on Shantae having any presence in Smash's development up until getting that nod at the very end. Wayforward's statements on the matter allude more to the idea that no negotiations had taken place prior to or beyond that.

It feels like a major stretch to have alongside the aforementioned Rayman with his presence in BOTH Smash 4 and Ultimate. Both are among the only standalone third party spirits but I dunno, I really can't convince myself that anything about Shantae's situation lends itself too well toward this theory.

Honestly I'm concerned as this thread continues that it may just become crackpot theorycraft and retrofitting for people's MWs showing that with enough mental gymnastics pretty much anyone could fulfill this theory. It may be productive to start organizing the list in the OP a bit differently if we get to that point.
---

Speaking of which, and bringing things back to the usual discussion, I just remembered and I'm surprised that nobody has brought up the "Crash document" directly - which there is evidence of at least existing, but no evidence toward the rumored tidbit about Crash in Smash as an ending stretch goal. Seeing how Activision wanted to strong-arm Crash back into gaming icon status I suppose you could make a case for Activision having approached Nintendo fairly early on. Although I personally don't believe that the Smash part is necessarily in the document at all, nor does it imply the conversation went anywhere meaningful (Bethesda being a clear cut example of "talks" going nowhere).

One more thing worth acknowledging, if we want to hone in on big parts of series that are missing from Smash you could probably make a case for Shin Megami Tensei content being weirdly absent from Joker's pass altogether. Persona has largely become its own thing but it feels a bit odd that we didn't even get a Jack Frost Mii hat or spirit. Just something to consider when thinking about noticeable gaping holes in representation.

The thing about what wayforward said about shantaes spirits getting in just seems suspect. You are telling me its that easy to get your property repped in some what in smash? Just sending a few pictures? There would havr had to be some more negotiations going on. Plus, they both had actually spirit fights so sakurai did think on where to place them on the board, and all the mods needed for those fights.

Honestly though the online player icon is the most suspect evidence i feel. No other th8rd party that isnt tied to a playable fighter or assist or mii costume has a onlijr player icon. And once again she is last on the list.

This just makes me think that she was considered at some point. Whether or not this changes to playable is anyones guess.

 

[SharkLord]

The thing about what wayforward said about shantaes spirits getting in just seems suspect. You are telling me its that easy to get your property repped in some what in smash? Just sending a few pictures? There would havr had to be some more negotiations going on. Plus, they both had actually spirit fights so sakurai did think on where to place them on the board, and all the mods needed for those fights.

Honestly though the online player icon is the most suspect evidence i feel. No other th8rd party that isnt tied to a playable fighter or assist or mii costume has a onlijr player icon. And once again she is last on the list.

This just makes me think that she was considered at some point. Whether or not this changes to playable is anyones guess.

That could indicate a scenario where Shantae could've been playable, but it's also possible Nintendo just willingly accepted an easy shot at some free Spirits. The other companies just sent them the pics, and so Nintendo took them and slotted them into some Spirit battles. It's possible Shantae and Rayman had some consideration, but it's also possible that they weren't in the original plan and the Spirits were added later, when Nintendo received the artwork.

 

[ZoroCarlos]

I'd like to also add that avoiding Rayman from the Ubisoft mii selection arguably does him more favors for this theory than not. I know the argument is like "Oh but they would save the Ubisoft Miis for Rayman's inclusion", but two things:

1. That was in FP1. While we have no idea when costumes for that wave were decided, I don't think they should have any bearing on what happens in FP2, especially a whole year afterwards on the last two characters.
2. Same logic could apply to Rex. We can debate that Rex was a costume that was available since the base game, but he is still an advertised part of the first DLC wave. While he himself got Chrom'd, we still ended up getting Pyra and Mythra on the following pass. So until Rayman himself becomes a costume, I think he's safe for discussion, and he would come with costumes representing other characters from his games, similar to Steve who came with Minecraft costumes instead of the no-brainer Master Chief costume. (Chief safe for FP3 let's go!)

 

[zferolie]

That could indicate a scenario where Shantae could've been playable, but it's also possible Nintendo just willingly accepted an easy shot at some free Spirits. The other companies just sent them the pics, and so Nintendo took them and slotted them into some Spirit battles. It's possible Shantae and Rayman had some consideration, but it's also possible that they weren't in the original plan and the Spirits were added later, when Nintendo received the artwork.

Oh i agree. It could mean just that they put them in due to free slots. Its honestly impossible to know for sure. But this whole thing is just a theory. Not sayng shantae or anyone here are sure things

 

[MrMcNuts]

That could indicate a scenario where Shantae could've been playable, but it's also possible Nintendo just willingly accepted an easy shot at some free Spirits. The other companies just sent them the pics, and so Nintendo took them and slotted them into some Spirit battles. It's possible Shantae and Rayman had some consideration, but it's also possible that they weren't in the original plan and the Spirits were added later, when Nintendo received the artwork.

I think it's worth noting that Rayman is at least a little further up on the list, so he wasn't some last minute consideration it seems.

I'd like to also add that avoiding Rayman from the Ubisoft mii selection arguably does him more favors for this theory than not. I know the argument is like "Oh but they would save the Ubisoft Miis for Rayman's inclusion", but two things:

1. That was in FP1. While we have no idea when costumes for that wave were decided, I don't think they should have any bearing on what happens in FP2, especially a whole year afterwards on the last two characters.
2. Same logic could apply to Rex. We can debate that Rex was a costume that was available since the base game, but he is still an advertised part of the first DLC wave. While he himself got Chrom'd, we still ended up getting Pyra and Mythra on the following pass. So until Rayman himself becomes a costume, I think he's safe for discussion, and he would come with costumes representing other characters from his games, similar to Steve who came with Minecraft costumes instead of the no-brainer Master Chief costume. (Chief safe for FP3 let's go!)

Exactly. You can also argue that there's plenty more miis not just from the Rayman series itself but from Ubisoft's library as well that Rayman could bring, such as Splinter Cell or Prince of Persia

 

[SharkLord]

I think it's worth noting that Rayman is at least a little further up on the list, so he wasn't some last minute consideration it seems.

I do remember Ubi sent Nintendo a model of Rayman back in the Smash 4, which would later become his trophy. There's definitely a parallel with Shantae's Spirit, but I'm not sure if Ubi also did this with Rayman's Spirit in Ultimate

 

[MrMcNuts]

I do remember Ubi sent Nintendo a model of Rayman back in the Smash 4, which would later become his trophy. There's definitely a parallel with Shantae's Spirit, but I'm not sure if Ubi also did this with Rayman's Spirit in Ultimate

True but as listed above Ubi has actually discussed the idea with nintendo and probably has closer connections as seen with nintendo trusting them with Mario and starfox. Also in Sakurai's original miiverse post for Rayman's trophy he said it started with them asking for reference art to make his trophy, but instead of sending reference art they sent th model to make it less work for him.

 

[ZoroCarlos]

I do remember Ubi sent Nintendo a model of Rayman back in the Smash 4, which would later become his trophy. There's definitely a parallel with Shantae's Spirit, but I'm not sure if Ubi also did this with Rayman's Spirit in Ultimate

Now by this logic I wonder if Ubisoft modeled their own Miis or left it all to Sakurai.

It could be theorized that the rights for the spirits in base game and the eventual miis were done at the same time just cause Ubisoft wanted some sort of presence in FP1 while they waited for the hypothetical Rayman fighter to arrive. Just a crackpot.

 

[SharkLord]

True but as listed above Ubi has actually discussed the idea with nintendo and probably has closer connections as seen with nintendo trusting them with Mario and starfox. Also in Sakurai's original miiverse post for Rayman's trophy he said it started with them asking for reference art to make his trophy, but instead of sending reference art they sent th model to make it less work for him.

Ah, I see. Thanks for the clarification; It's been a while since I've seen that piece of info and the details got lost along the way.

 

[KirbyWorshipper2465]

I'd like to also add that avoiding Rayman from the Ubisoft mii selection arguably does him more favors for this theory than not. I know the argument is like "Oh but they would save the Ubisoft Miis for Rayman's inclusion", but two things:

1. That was in FP1. While we have no idea when costumes for that wave were decided, I don't think they should have any bearing on what happens in FP2, especially a whole year afterwards on the last two characters.
2. Same logic could apply to Rex. We can debate that Rex was a costume that was available since the base game, but he is still an advertised part of the first DLC wave. While he himself got Chrom'd, we still ended up getting Pyra and Mythra on the following pass. So until Rayman himself becomes a costume, I think he's safe for discussion, and he would come with costumes representing other characters from his games, similar to Steve who came with Minecraft costumes instead of the no-brainer Master Chief costume. (Chief safe for FP3 let's go!)

On the subject of Chief, this is tangentially related, but a while ago King Zell made the cryptic comment of "halo to everyone", as well as a different comment of him hearing a specific rumor that "was impossible, like seeing Mario in a PlayStation console", implying that he knows that some sort of Halo project might be coming on the Switch at some point, most likely the Master Chief Collection. While that has yet to materialize, Chief might be saved for after that is confirmed to be announced and released.

Now by this logic I wonder if Ubisoft modeled their own Miis or left it all to Sakurai.

That would explain why for 4's timeframe, Ubi sent their own trophy model to Sak, only for the in-game trophy to deviate greatly from the initial model.

 

[MeteoRain]

Shantae's Spirits are the last in the game's code, and she is the only third-party to have an online icon but not have a fighter.

Slightly incorrect.

She's the only third-party who's franchise has neither a fighter or even an assist. 3rd party assists like Shovel Knight and Fatal Frame (A Koei-Tecmo IP for all you Hayabusa supporters not in the know) all have Smash Tag icons as well.

She's the only third-party series with a Smash Tag icon that only has spirits, and a drop in the bucket at that.

I believe that's reason enough to think she's getting more down the line, even if I'm being pessimistic and think it might just be a Mii or Spirit Event.

 

[Lionfranky]

I'd like to also add that avoiding Rayman from the Ubisoft mii selection arguably does him more favors for this theory than not. I know the argument is like "Oh but they would save the Ubisoft Miis for Rayman's inclusion", but two things:

1. That was in FP1. While we have no idea when costumes for that wave were decided, I don't think they should have any bearing on what happens in FP2, especially a whole year afterwards on the last two characters.
2. Same logic could apply to Rex. We can debate that Rex was a costume that was available since the base game, but he is still an advertised part of the first DLC wave. While he himself got Chrom'd, we still ended up getting Pyra and Mythra on the following pass. So until Rayman himself becomes a costume, I think he's safe for discussion, and he would come with costumes representing other characters from his games, similar to Steve who came with Minecraft costumes instead of the no-brainer Master Chief costume. (Chief safe for FP3 let's go!)

There is no way someone on caliber of Chief being Mii. That's like saying Crash and Sora will get Mii treatment... Chief's legacy is greater than those.

 

[ZoroCarlos]

There is no way someone on caliber of Chief being Mii. That's like saying Crash and Sora will get Mii treatment... Chief's legacy is greater than those.

Assassin's Creed has over double the sales Halo has but they got Mii'd and Tetris, the second best selling game franchise, is only just Spirits, so I don't see how that's a factor one way or the other, as much as I want Chief to join Smash.

 

[Lionfranky]

Assassin's Creed has over double the sales Halo has but they got Mii'd and Tetris, the second best selling game franchise, is only just Spirits, so I don't see how that's a factor one way or the other, as much as I want Chief to join Smash.

AC has more entries. And it's multiplatform to boot. One can argue that Ezio is the face, not Altair. If you think Altair Mii costume is all there is for AC, then the same should be applied to Rayman. And Halo is face of Xbox. It carries more weight than AC for different context.

Tetris doesn't even have avatar character, so it's different case.

It's just that I don't see people even suggesting that Sora, Crash or Doom Slayer can be Mii. They should be more susceptible to Mii treatment than Chief. That's for sure.

Then, I remember people saying Steve should be Mii before his reveal, so I guess it's fair game.

 

[ZoroCarlos]

AC has more entries. And it's multiplatform to boot. One can argue that Ezio is the face, not Altair. If you think Altair Mii costume is all there is for AC, then the same should be applied to Rayman. And Halo is face of Xbox. It carries more weight than AC for different context.

Tetris doesn't even have avatar character, so it's different case.

It's just that I don't see people even suggesting that Sora, Crash or Doom Slayer can be Mii. They should be more susceptible to Mii treatment than Chief. That's for sure.

Then, I remember people saying Steve should be Mii before his reveal, so I guess it's fair game.

When I brought up Tetris it was more with a stage in mind, actually. Same logic though, it's way too iconic a series just to have the short end of the stick, that was the point. Furthermore, Assassin's Creed being multiplatform doesn't really make it any less iconic. I don't get what point you were trying to make with Rayman there, I know Altair isn't the only protagonist, but the assassin getup is consistent between games that even if you don't know the character names you'll just say "Oh, Assassin's Creed!" upon seeing the costumes anyway.

This is way out of topic though. I didn't even mean to imply that Master Chief should have been a Mii costume, only that it's curious that they didn't do it when they had the perfect opportunity to (Much like Rayman being excluded from the Ubisoft Miis). It could imply further plans down the line for the character which I'm very much down for.

 

[KirbyWorshipper2465]

In regards to series that aren't hurting for content but could get a/nother unique character after missing out on the base roster/Pass 1 anyway, the first elephant in the room I would like to bring up for this time is Sylux.

Metroid is largely covered, but curiously some parts of Prime's content is not. Most notably, only half of the hunters from Hunters are present and accounted for spirits-wise.

This might not seem like much until you notice that Sylux is missing among them, the guy who later showed up in Prime 3's ending.

Could this mean they wanted to include him to promote Prime 4 until it got delayed and they're saving him for later? Only time will tell.

Assassin's Creed has over double the sales Halo has but they got Mii'd and Tetris, the second best selling game franchise, is only just Spirits, so I don't see how that's a factor one way or the other, as much as I want Chief to join Smash.

Not to mention that it's hard to get Tetris' owners to play ball in general, which is why Puyo Puyo Tetris making it into the West was seen as a huge deal.

 

[SharkLord]

In regards to series that aren't hurting for content but could get a/nother unique character after missing out on the base roster/Pass 1 anyway, the first elephant in the room I would like to bring up for this time is Sylux.

Metroid is largely covered, but curiously some parts of Prime's content is not. Most notably, only half of the hunters from Hunters are present and accounted for spirits-wise.

This might not seem like much until you notice that Sylux is missing among them, the guy who later showed up in Prime 3's ending.

Could this mean they wanted to include him to promote Prime 4 until it got delayed and they're saving him for later? Only time will tell.

To be fair, Sylux is a pretty minor character in the grand scheme of things when you don't include the little hints throughout the games. MP4 was still in development when Ultimate released, and Sylux hadn't gotten their time to shine yet. I can understand why he was passed over by the Spirit team.

 

[zferolie]

To be fair, Sylux is a pretty minor character in the grand scheme of things when you don't include the little hints throughout the games. MP4 was still in development when Ultimate released, and Sylux hadn't gotten their time to shine yet. I can understand why he was passed over by the Spirit team.

If prime 4 ever actually happens, i can see sylux being added in the next smash game, if his role is big enough

 

[Minik]

Decidueye gets my vote. I totally agree with any above or eventual posts mentioning the owl. Rayman and maybe Captain Toad. And Shantae I guess Sign Shantae..

Decidueye has it's absence from Ultimate in it's favor. I hope. I want to see Lampy and Lionel_B be happy.

Starter final evos dont really get anything in smash unless they're straight up playable, plus its not really a missed thing, they chose incineroar instead like how they chose min min over springman.

But I would take anything to somehow get Decidueye in smash at this point

 

[TraaP]

I feel that Sora should be considered for the “rumours & leaks” category, as we’ve had multiple insiders claim that Nintendo approached Disney for Sora. Most notably, Imran Khan claimed that Nintendo had approached Disney Japan to have Sora in Smash, but negotiations fell through. However, he also said that he expected Sora or Master Chief to be the “heavy hitter” in FP2, so it seems that Nintendo approached Disney for Sora ages ago, most likely well before FP2 was was decided.
Although, I don’t feel like that there is too much credence/evidence to support this. But as we know, Nintendo is very unpredictable, so anyone is possible.

 

[SpectreJordan]

I was thinking about it & it’s possible that the 4 we’ve gotten so far could be it for Second Chance Theory, maybe with one more that fits in that category.

It’s possible that after deciding on the 4 we’ve gotten so far, they went for two new characters that weren’t on the table beforehand.

It’ll be interesting to see if that happens because it’s very clear that the 4 we have so far are all second chances.

 

[SharkLord]

I was thinking about it & it’s possible that the 4 we’ve gotten so far could be it for Second Chance Theory, maybe with one more that fits in that category.

It’s possible that after deciding on the 4 we’ve gotten so far, they went for two new characters that weren’t on the table beforehand.

It’ll be interesting to see if that happens because it’s very clear that the 4 we have so far are all second chances.

Yeah, it's just as possible that one of or both of the fighters are outliers, and the theory and it's thread becomes invalidated. It's not like it hasn't happened before; We had four packs straight of new third-parties last pass, only to end on Byleth.

 

[7NATOR]

So I'm writing a more in-depth theory on this, with my own opinion about who the Last 2 Fighters are (I find it hard to write the right words to describe the concents of the theory), but here's what I think might happen


Steve and Sephiroth

-Characters that were considered and perhaps planned to be in, but their implementation was delayed

-Steve was confirmed to be this, with his talks lasting 5 years. Sephiroth isn't officially confirmed, but considering no new content from FF7 was added at all, and with Sephiroth being heard about the same amount as Dragon quest with the Seven Squares, does make it seem like this is the case

-Probably the 1-2 Fighters Sakurai intially considered for Extra DLC after FP1, if that statement has any merit

WHY

Nintendo might have already be Far along in negotiations regarding the content Steve and Sephiroth came with, including the spirits, music, Mii costumes, etc. Perhaps even if FP2 was not a thing, they would perhaps still be DLC

Min Min and Pyra/Mythra

-Characters that could not be considered for Base game due to timing issues, but then considered for Later DLC, in the case a full FP2 happened (which it did)

-ARMS and Xenoblade Chronicles 2 did get content in the base game, which included Spirits, Miis, and in Xenoblade's case, Music, which implies that FP2 was not a sure thing that was gonna happen

-However considering that Min Min and Pyra/Mythra did not get any Mii costumes or Assists, it could be assumed that the character planned to represent the franchise were already in Place, even before FP2 was greenlit

WHY

With a Full FP2 decided upon, ARMS and Xenoblade Chronicles 2 can now be represented on the roster. They likely already had concepts for how they would be implemented already in production, and being Nintendo characters, had no need for talking with another 3rd party or extra costs attached



??? and ???

-Characters that were considered, were implemented in Unplayable form, but then given a Second look for certain reasons

-DLC was decided to be a thing sometime after January 11th of 2018 (without the developers will), and by that time the Content already in the game were Set in stone most likely

-Reasons for reconsideration could vary, whether because of Popularity, relevance, or etc

-Bomberman Mii Costume might be an example of this, Depending on if he was or wasn't always planned to be a Costume.

-If Steve and Sephiroth were the 1-2 extra fighters intially planned, than it's likely the characters probably already have a Presence in the game already

WHY

With a Full FP2 being decided on, these hypothetical characters, already having presence in the game, and potential content related to them, would make easier negotiations compared to going for new 3rd parties and such, and that is in the case the characters were 3rd party.

Sometime between the Finishing of the Project Plan in December of 2015, and the consideration for DLC after DLC was decided on sometime after January of 2018, these 2 Characters must have had more merit given to them to be Re-considered as Fighters



Finishing thoughts

It's very possible that with FP2, Barely any new Negotiations were actually made to create the FP2. This makes it much easier to create the FP2, as the Development of Smash Ultimate can continue with no delays, and Nintendo saves on resources

The characters of FP2 were perhaps decided along with the characters of FP1, but FP2 itself was not something that was guaranteed to happen. Since FP1 did sell very well however, the Pass was greenlit to give Ultimate extra content, using Negotiations already made

 

[ZoroCarlos]

The characters of FP2 were perhaps decided along with the characters of FP1, but FP2 itself was not something that was guaranteed to happen. Since FP1 did sell very well however, the Pass was greenlit to give Ultimate extra content, using Negotiations already made

I agree with this when it comes to the third parties, but not with Min Min and Pyra/Mythra. HOWEVER, I do agree that every DLC character was possibly decided before Ultimate released, just that some before others. The two I pointed out feel like they were decided in the last second to be DLC.

 

[Shinuto]

Now by this logic I wonder if Ubisoft modeled their own Miis or left it all to Sakurai.

It could be theorized that the rights for the spirits in base game and the eventual miis were done at the same time just cause Ubisoft wanted some sort of presence in FP1 while they waited for the hypothetical Rayman fighter to arrive. Just a crackpot.

That same theory could also apply to Shantae.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

How about Octoling (Splatoon 2 Octo Expansion)? The only pieces of content in Smash Ultimate from the Octo Expansion are the spirits of Octoling Girl & Octoling Boy (aka Agent 8) and the Octoling Octopus. No spirits of C. Q. Cumber, the Phone, Iso Padre, the OE versions of Off the Hook or Cap’n Cuttlefish, Sanitized Octarians etc. No Octo Expansion music either, in fact there’s not a lot of music from 2 in general. Plus, Octolings are confirmed to be playable off the bat in Splatoon 3.

 

[SharkLord]

How about Octoling (Splatoon 2 Octo Expansion)? The only pieces of content in Smash Ultimate from the Octo Expansion are the spirits of Octoling Girl & Octoling Boy (aka Agent 8) and the Octoling Octopus. No spirits of C. Q. Cumber, the Phone, Iso Padre, the OE versions of Off the Hook or Cap’n Cuttlefish, Sanitized Octarians etc. No Octo Expansion music either, in fact there’s not a lot of music from 2 in general. Plus, Octolings are confirmed to be playable off the bat in Splatoon 3.

I'm not sure if the Octolings were even able to be planned for the base game. The Spirits were probably just a quick little courtesy to say "Hey, this game's a thing." There's a lot of times when games don't have much representation, and if we listed all of them we'd be here for a while. Second Chance generally needs something notable that suggests there could've been a fighter was at least considered, not just "They don't have many Spirits." That's normal. What we're looking for is something abnormal, something that suggests stuff was going on in the background.

Even then, the Callie and Marie costumes give me doubts; Regardless of what game the pack's based around, Splatoon is Splatoon and the Splatoon Miis would most likely come with the big Splatoon content pack. If there was a Splatoon pack in the pipeline, be it for 2, 3, or Octo Expansion, the Miis would be saved for that, regardless of which Splatoon game it's from.

 

[ZoroCarlos]

fwiw, and we'll find out on Thursday, I think the theory could also point to us getting both additional XC1 and XCX music alongside Pyra and Mythra.

Think about it, I'll use Fire Emblem for comparison: Fire Emblem went from about 20 music tracks to over 40 from Smash 4 to Smash Ultimate (Plus 11 more with Byleth). Whereas, Xenoblade only got 3 new songs and they're all from the game that's now getting a fighter as DLC. Using the theory that Arms and Final Fantasy might have had their content held back on purpose, I think this could bode well for those two games.

"But the pass is Xenoblade 2 centric"
Joker came with Persona 3 and 4 music (While 5 still got the most focus) and that selection was probably harder to license anyway. The Xenoblade composers already helped out in making a lot of Smash remixes so allowing their music in the game shouldn't be a hassle.

As for X specifically, which is composed by Hiroyuki Sawano... I don't really think getting the licensing to his music would be hard? Uncontrollable and Wir Fliegen are both tracks that can play in XC2, and imo getting at least those two tracks in Smash would be an absolute win. (Or even just Uncontrollable please gimme)

 

[SharkLord]

fwiw, and we'll find out on Thursday, I think the theory could also point to us getting both additional XC1 and XCX music alongside Pyra and Mythra.

Think about it, I'll use Fire Emblem for comparison: Fire Emblem went from about 20 music tracks to over 40 from Smash 4 to Smash Ultimate (Plus 11 more with Byleth). Whereas, Xenoblade only got 3 new songs and they're all from the game that's now getting a fighter as DLC. Using the theory that Arms and Final Fantasy might have had their content held back on purpose, I think this could bode well for those two games.

"But the pass is Xenoblade 2 centric"
Joker came with Persona 3 and 4 music (While 5 still got the most focus) and that selection was probably harder to license anyway. The Xenoblade composers already helped out in making a lot of Smash remixes so allowing their music in the game shouldn't be a hassle.

As for X specifically, which is composed by Hiroyuki Sawano... I don't really think getting the licensing to his music would be hard? Uncontrollable and Wir Fliegen are both tracks that can play in XC2, and imo getting at least those two tracks in Smash would be an absolute win. (Or even just Uncontrollable please gimme)

Final Fantasy, maybe, but I think ARMS was just a victim of poor timing. XC2's in the same boat. Though, I do think some songs from other Xenoblade games are a possibility; It is still Xenoblade, after all.

 

[ZoroCarlos]

Final Fantasy, maybe, but I think ARMS was just a victim of poor timing. XC2's in the same boat. Though, I do think some songs from other Xenoblade games are a possibility; It is still Xenoblade, after all.

Could be anything, really. Like, I've always complained since the base game about how XC2 gets three tracks, but Arms, which releases before it, received nothing. It was such a no-brainer pick for the "Others" section. Then boom, Arms gets DLC and now the whole ost minus like three of those tracks are in the game now.

It's crackpot, but to me it makes a lot of sense from that perspective.

 

[KirbyWorshipper2465]

Here's another layer for this theory: what about characters who didn't get too much of a chance in sales for their source games?

ARMS was basically glossed over by people in general as soon as Splatoon 2 landed.
Xenoblade Chronicles 2 did okay enough, but was still part of a niche series prior to the recent announcement.

Sure, Steve and Seph are from huge properties, but I wouldn't be surprised if we get at least one other character who gets a second lease at life for their property via upcoming DLC for this.

fwiw, and we'll find out on Thursday, I think the theory could also point to us getting both additional XC1 and XCX music alongside Pyra and Mythra.

Think about it, I'll use Fire Emblem for comparison: Fire Emblem went from about 20 music tracks to over 40 from Smash 4 to Smash Ultimate (Plus 11 more with Byleth). Whereas, Xenoblade only got 3 new songs and they're all from the game that's now getting a fighter as DLC. Using the theory that Arms and Final Fantasy might have had their content held back on purpose, I think this could bode well for those two games.

"But the pass is Xenoblade 2 centric"
Joker came with Persona 3 and 4 music (While 5 still got the most focus) and that selection was probably harder to license anyway. The Xenoblade composers already helped out in making a lot of Smash remixes so allowing their music in the game shouldn't be a hassle.

As for X specifically, which is composed by Hiroyuki Sawano... I don't really think getting the licensing to his music would be hard? Uncontrollable and Wir Fliegen are both tracks that can play in XC2, and imo getting at least those two tracks in Smash would be an absolute win. (Or even just Uncontrollable please gimme)

Adding to that, Sak himself pointed out that one composer (Takeshi Kuramochi) was responsible for bolstering the number of Fire Emblem remixes in the base game by himself.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Here's another layer for this theory: what about characters who didn't get too much of a chance in sales for their source games?

ARMS was basically glossed over by people in general as soon as Splatoon 2 landed.
Xenoblade Chronicles 2 did okay enough, but was still part of a niche series prior to the recent announcement.

Sure, Steve and Seph are from huge properties, but I wouldn't be surprised if we get at least one other character who gets a second lease at life for their property via upcoming DLC for this.



Adding to that, Sak himself pointed out that one composer (Takeshi Kuramochi) was responsible for bolstering the number of Fire Emblem remixes in the base game by himself.

What’s Kuramochi’s repertoire? Is he particularly... tricky to license?

 

[KirbyWorshipper2465]

What’s Kuramochi’s repertoire? Is he particularly... tricky to license?

Nothing like that. He's just a guy who really, really likes Fire Emblem.

He used to be at Konami, but he's mostly indie now.

https://castlevania.fandom.com/wiki/Takeshi_Kuramochi
https://www.ssbwiki.com/List_of_composers

Big Blue Advance Beyond Distant Skies - Roy's Departure Id (Purpose) Under This Banner Cross Your Heart

 

[zferolie]

I feel that after today thia theory is the only solid theory we got. Monster hunter was obviously never a fully considered character, so that doesnt hurt the this theory at all

 

[SharkLord]

Welp, the most likely benefactor of this theory just died. Oof.

Of course, nothing says the theory itself is dead. We might end up with a Steve situation again, where we don't know who was planned early on. Of course, it's possible that the second chances have run their course, and we're getting newer deals only from here on out.