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Try, Try Again - Second Chance Theory Discussion Thread

SharkLord

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What is Second Chance Theory?
The Second Chance Theory is the idea that Fighter's Pass 2 will consist partially or entirely of characters who were considered for the base game, but missed their chance. So far, Min Min and Pyra were from games that released too late to be considered, and Steve took about five years to negotiate for. Sephiroth doesn't 100% fit into the theory yet due to lack of info, but there's a couple ideas to go with based on the infamously poor representation of Final Fantasy in the base game.

This thread is for brainstorming, spitballing, and theorizing on who could possibly fit in with the Second Chance Theory, as well as keeping a comprehensive list of possible options. Of course, nothing's saying every fighter in FP2 has to fit the theory, and nothing saying it's concrete, either. This thread is mostly for fun and speculation; None of this is official.

Below is a growing, comprehensive list of different characters who could possibly fit the theory. The sub-theories and guesses based off of this are up for debate; If you wish to argue against a theory or add to it, feel free to, so long as you remain civil and respectful.

Content with no Fighter
Represented games and series that don't have a playable character, much like ARMS and Xenoblade Chronicles 2.
  • Monster Hunter - MH has a large amount of content for a series without a fighter, and the music is titled like the playable third-parties in the code. However, it could simply be that it was just considered for the boss fight only, as the monsters are also an iconic part of the series (Though not the only one). The music could just be because of the boss stage.
  • Shantae - Shantae's Spirits are the last in the game's code, and she is the only third-party to have an online icon but not have a fighter or Assist Trophy. Notably, WayForward sent Nintendo images of her directly, which would be used as Spirits. This is a curious situation, as usually there's more to the deals, though it's also possible Nintendo simply took the opportunity for some free extra Spirits
  • Rayman - Has received minor roles in Smash 4 and Ultimate, longer than most other third-parties. He may have been considered at some points, though it's also possible that he was just always a collectable.
  • Isaac - Golden Sun lacks any new content, has a sizeable amount of Spirits for a fighter-less series, and Nintendo is supposedly aware of the backlash towards the Assist Trophy. This could potentially lead to Nintendo going back and promoting him to fighter status.]
Rumors and Leaks
Characters that were planned for the base game, according to various rumors, leakers, and insiders. As with all rumors, taking this list with a very, very large grain of salt.
  • Koei Tecmo Fighter - Vergeben has said that Nintendo has dealt with Koei-Tecmo. Could lead to a fighter, but it could also refer to the Yuri AT, the footage from Byleth's trailer, and the AoC Spirit Event.
  • Lloyd Irving - Was mentioned in the big Negotiations Rumor, having been in the planning stages but dropped for whatever reason.
  • Yuri Lowell - Mentioned by the Negotiations Rumor alongside Lloyd.
  • Chun-Li - Named by the Negotiations Rumor as having been considered but "replaced by Ken somehow." Nintendo could go back to her for her icon status, though the situation with Ken may put her in league with Decidueye and Alucard, implying that the original deal is done.
Considered for Past Games
Characters who were noted as being planned for past games. Admittedly, they do stretch the theory a little; As such, this rule is reserved for notably cases that could possibly be on Sakurai and Nintendo's radars.
  • Rhythm Heaven Fighter - The Chorus Kids(?) were seemingly considered for Smash 4, only being ditched late in development. It's possible that Sakurai and/or Nintendo could go back and revive them, seeing as the development for Smash has been going on since the beginning of 4.
  • Ayumi Tachibana - Similar to Chorus Kids, but with Melee and Smash 64. Interestingly, the later makes her the oldest character to be planned and scrapped without being brought back as a fighter later on. In Melee's case, she was cited as not being recognizable to Western audiences, which is now moot because of the upcoming FDC port.
Other
Unique cases that don't fit in with the other categories.
  • Undertale Fighter - Sans' Mii Costume reveal made a big impact, and Undertale didn't receive any Spirits later on, unlike Cuphead. It could be that Nintendo observed the positive reception, and decided to add an Undertale pack late into FP2's planning.
 
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LiveStudioAudience

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Bit of a longshot given what it would imply, but sort of think Alucard just might have a chance. Not that there's a lack of content with Castlevania (far from it) or that he's not without competition when it comes to assist trophies that would make sense for a promotion. We do know though, that he was considered for a Castlevania rep, and that his moveset is fairly varied already for an assist trophy character.

While at the time of development Simon as the main fighter and Richter as the echo to please both regional audiences made sense, especially given the deadline of release, the greater time and opportunity of DLC could add to that; doubly so given that Alucard is the most famous character in the franchise besides the Belmonts and Dracula. The inclusion of stuff like the Goemon and Bomberman Mii costumes suggests there's clearly some continuing work with Konami even after the base game release. Essentially Nintendo and Sakurai deciding to bite the bullet and make Alucard an actual fighter (presumably with a stage, a dozen or so Castlevania tracks not covered by Smash yet and few more obscure spirits)?

Not necessarily likely I admit, but I don't think it can be entirely dismissed either.
 

toonito

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IMO the 2 characters that best fit 2nd Chance Theory for FP2 are Monster Hunter and Chorus Kids. Monster Hunter along the lines of Min Min (additional content to a represented franchise) and Chorus Kids (revisiting a character who was confirmed to be cut in development i.e. Ice Climbers in Smash 4).

If I'm going by 2nd Chance Theory IMO my picks for CP10 and CP11 are Monster Hunter and a Gen 8 Pokemon. Maybe I'm drawing a blank but I don't think the rumored Gen 4 remakes will have any bearing on a character pick. I know Pokemon already had a Spirit Event but unlike a lot of people I think Pyra's inclusion slightly increased a Pokemon making the cut.
I was basing my analysis off the list Sharklord provided. I agree regarding Chorus Kids' chances that's why I felt Pokemon fits the theory more precisely because Gens 7 & 8 are within Ultimate's timeline and could add additional content from Gen 8 similar to what Min Min did for ARMS.
further thoughts

again i wanna emphasize that I don't necessarily think that 2nd Chance Theory is true just speculating based on it

IMO Monster Hunter is probably the biggest winner from this theory followed by Gen 8 Pokemon.

If you're including characters like Decidueye and Alucard (who i don't think neatly fit the theory) then characters like Chun-Li, Zero, Bomberman, Waluigi etc. should be in consideration as characters who can include additional content (Chun-Li can bring an additional stage and non SFII music) or their Assist Trophy roles can be upgraded (Zero, Bomberman). I'm in the camp who think ATs disconfirm. As much as I'd like to see those 4 playable I don't think they'll make Ultimate so Monster Hunter is the main benefactor of this theory
 
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Minik

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I feel its worth noting that Chorus Kids also still have a fairly notable presence in Ult, being tied with Karate Joe spirit use wise and as well as being an online icon option of all things. And a strange lack of having an assist trophy for something as popular as Rhythm Heaven strikes me as odd when last game it got a smash run enemy. My only issue would be them not deeming it "worthy" for dlc but to me that just makes it all the more better to push it as dlc.
 

Perkilator

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I still think Eggman and Bandana Dee (the former moreso) could fit into this theory.
  • There's still plenty of music missing from the Sonic series, which is weird because it's a series known its good music. Eggman could hypothetically rectify this; he could possibly pull a Terry and bring 50 tracks. As for Spirits, many of the major characters are present, but there are still some seemingly no-brainer character choices for Spirits that just aren't (also, Knuckles doesn't have a Spirit Battle despite being an Assist Trophy)
  • The Kirby series has it better compared to other series, but what it has is heavily skewed towards Sakurai's games. Bandana Dee could (hopefully) make the modern side of Kirby flourish a lot more; both in music and in Spirits.
 

SharkLord

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I still think Eggman and Bandana Dee (the former moreso) could fit into this theory.
  • There's still plenty of music missing from the Sonic series, which is weird because it's a series known its good music. Eggman could hypothetically rectify this; he could possibly pull a Terry and bring 50 tracks. As for Spirits, many of the major characters are present, but there are still some seemingly no-brainer character choices for Spirits that just aren't (also, Knuckles doesn't have a Spirit Battle despite being an Assist Trophy)
  • The Kirby series has it better compared to other series, but what it has is heavily skewed towards Sakurai's games. Bandana Dee could (hopefully) make the modern side of Kirby flourish a lot more; both in music and in Spirits.
Hmm... Maybe, but I'm not quite sure. They'd fit in with Sephiroth's interpretation, but the difference between them is that there aren't any massive, glaring holes on the level of Final Fantasy's issues. Sure, there's some gaps to fill, but Sonic and Kirby actually have Spirits and songs in the first place. All Final Fantasy had was Cloud's two renders and a measly two unremixed songs. I think situation like these are simply routes that could be taken, but they're not absolutely necessary.
 

Golden Icarus

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I can’t find the exact quote, but I remember Verge saying that the Square rep for Fighters Pass 1 looked like a toss up between Erdrick and Sephiroth. That could make Sephiroth fit into this theory.

The seven squares that Verge mentioned (Erdrick, Luminary, Slime, Sephiroth, Geno, Crono, Sora) might all fit this theory. We have reason to believe that they were all at least considered. Obviously, three of them are already playable, Slime is a Mii hat and taunt, and Geno is a costume. That still leaves Crono and Sora unaccounted for. I doubt that we’d get two Square characters in this pass, but that still makes them worth keeping an eye on for the future.
 

SharkLord

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I can’t find the exact quote, but I remember Verge saying that the Square rep for Fighters Pass 1 looked like a toss up between Erdrick and Sephiroth. That could make Sephiroth fit into this theory.

The seven squares that Verge mentioned (Erdrick, Luminary, Slime, Sephiroth, Geno, Crono, Sora) might all fit this theory. We have reason to believe that they were all at least considered. Obviously, three of them are already playable, Slime is a Mii hat and taunt, and Geno is a costume. That still leaves Crono and Sora unaccounted for. I doubt that we’d get two Square characters in this pass, but that still makes them worth keeping an eye on for the future.
The thing about the Seven Squares leak is that it's compiled from multiple different sources and made into a list. I wasn't around for that period of speculation, but I'm not really sure how credible it is.
 

KillerCage

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I recall there were talks between Nintendo and Valve about potentially putting a Half-Life game on the Switch.
Maybe during those discussions, the idea of Gordan Freeman in Smash was tossed around?
 

ZoroCarlos

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I think a Sonic character would be more in line to Xenoblade's situation in base game than Final Fantasy's. There were plenty of spirits, and only three songs added from the latest games in the series but nothing else, and none of them were remixes either. All Sonic is missing is a quote from Sakurai that implies that Sonic missed the bus to be a perfect match, but I think it's fair under that comparison to say that the Sonic series could fall under that category.
 

Guynamednelson

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Let's not forget two characters Sakurai considered for ultimate before replacing them with others:

Decidueye: On one hand, it's more popular in the West than Incineroar, and there's enough content not in Ultimate for another Gen 7 rep to get a challenger pack: No stage, no USUM music/spirits. However, Pokemon reps are influenced who TPC wants to market, market, and market, and Decidueye never really had this advantage. Personally because of this, I believe that if by some miracle we're getting another gen 7 rep, it'll be Mimikyu.
Alucard: Was considered before the Belmonts because Sakurai was thinking more people would be familiar with him. He could take advantage of this in FP2, except Castlevania's situation is the opposite of pre-Sephiroth FFVII's.

Also, do you think the high number of Rhythm Heaven spirits (high by series-without-a-fighter standards) is some sort of compromise for Sakurai still not being able to make an RH fighter?
 

Sophitia

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I think it's not "second chance" as in a hard rule, more that negotiations were probably already ongoing and it's easier to continue negotiations than start anew. If we're using this as a hard rule though, then Monster Hunter is definitely the most notable absence as of now.
 
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SharkLord

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I think a Sonic character would be more in line to Xenoblade's situation in base game than Final Fantasy's. There were plenty of spirits, and only three songs added from the latest games in the series but nothing else, and none of them were remixes either. All Sonic is missing is a quote from Sakurai that implies that Sonic missed the bus to be a perfect match, but I think it's fair under that comparison to say that the Sonic series could fall under that category.
True, but something I think is worth noting is the fact that Sonic has the same setting between games, whereas Xenoblade has takes place in different settings like with Fire Emblem and Final Fantasy. Sonic still represents the more recent titles by virtue of being Sonic, while Shulk only represents the first Xenoblade game. There's a bit less of a draw as a result.
Still, I think we could count a Sonic rep under speculation.
 
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ZoroCarlos

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True, but something I think is worth noting is the fact that Sonic has the same setting between games, whereas Xenoblade has takes place in different settings like with Fire Emblem and Final Fantasy. Sonic still represents the more recent titles by virtue of being Sonic, while Shulk only represents the first Xenoblade game. There's a bit less of a draw as a result.
Still, I think we could count a Sonic rep under speculation.
Good argument, but then in that situation it'd be fair to bring up FF7's case again.

But like... if we really wanted to represent different settings we can always add Boom Eggman instead... :4pacman:
 

SharkLord

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Good argument, but then in that situation it'd be fair to bring up FF7's case again.

But like... if we really wanted to represent different settings we can always add Boom Eggman instead... :4pacman:
Actually it would be Boom Knuckles, and this would be the trailer, shot-for-shot

Speaking seriously, I feel like songs alone might not be enough to warrant a full DLC pack. Sonic might be missing quite a few bangers, but Nintendo might not feel that way. Even if they did, he still has a sizeable amount of Spirits, two stages (Redundant as they may be), and two Assist Trophies. Obviously, Eggman could get added out of sheer iconicness, but that starts to drift away from the Second Chance Theory discussion this thread was made for.
 

Perkilator

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Speaking seriously, I feel like songs alone might not be enough to warrant a full DLC pack. Sonic might be missing quite a few bangers, but Nintendo might not feel that way. Even if they did, he still has a sizeable amount of Spirits, two stages (Redundant as they may be), and two Assist Trophies. Obviously, Eggman could get added out of sheer iconicness, but that starts to drift away from the Second Chance Theory discussion this thread was made for.
For Spirits, at least, I thought of at least 16 that would make sense for a Spirit Board.
 

SharkLord

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For Spirits, at least, I thought of at least 16 that would make sense for a Spirit Board.
Yeah, there's definitely some gaps to fill. It's just that almost every series has some gaps to fill; It's the norm, not like the massive pit of nothing that was pre-Sephiroth Final Fantasy. As such, I'm not sure if we could count those series as having massive sections left to fill in another Seph situation.
 

ZoroCarlos

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Actually it would be Boom Knuckles, and this would be the trailer, shot-for-shot

Speaking seriously, I feel like songs alone might not be enough to warrant a full DLC pack. Sonic might be missing quite a few bangers, but Nintendo might not feel that way. Even if they did, he still has a sizeable amount of Spirits, two stages (Redundant as they may be), and two Assist Trophies. Obviously, Eggman could get added out of sheer iconicness, but that starts to drift away from the Second Chance Theory discussion this thread was made for.
Yeah fwiw I think a Sonic character is still on the lower end of the likelihood scale, I just wanted to make my observations... Rayman on the other hand is who I have my eyes on 👀

Also honestly, this is a hunch, and I know it's not a base game addition, but I have wondered about Undertale. Simply because I find it odd that Cuphead got spirits added shortly after his mii's release while Undertale brought nothing else along. I also don't think it's very likely, just a thing to keep an eye out for.
 
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MrMcNuts

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Obviously I'm bias for any theory that helps Rayman but this theory overall is kinda logical, and Rayman would fit the bill.

Popular ballot request who we know Ubisoft has wanted to get in Smash, was probably discussed somewhere and made a spirit for the base game like Pyra and MinMin. Also didn't have Barbara and Globox included with him like last game. Hopefully that means he may be in the pipeline and is bringing them later as spirits or Miis.
 

SpectreJordan

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With the rumors of Monster Hunter, Chun-Li & Jill Valentine all having been planned for base roster but cancelled, I think Capcom in general could be apart of second chance theory, whether it’s one of those three or just someone else. Perhaps they won’t revisit those three characters but still want to give Capcom a second chance at a new character.

I think it’s odd that there’s been no Street Fighter Mii costumes or new Capcom Mii costumes in general (only Mega Man ones from Smash 4). With how crossover hungry Capcom is, you’d think we’d have a ton of Miis from them by now.


For Chun specifically, I think it’s odd how her theme didn’t get a remix. She’s the secondary face of the Street Fighter & her theme is pretty iconic. It’s prime remix territory. But we only ended up with two new remixes in Ultimate. Very odd...
 

SharkLord

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With the rumors of Monster Hunter, Chun-Li & Jill Valentine all having been planned for base roster but cancelled, I think Capcom in general could be apart of second chance theory, whether it’s one of those three or just someone else. Perhaps they won’t revisit those three characters but still want to give Capcom a second chance at a new character.

I think it’s odd that there’s been no Street Fighter Mii costumes or new Capcom Mii costumes in general (only Mega Man ones from Smash 4). With how crossover hungry Capcom is, you’d think we’d have a ton of Miis from them by now.


For Chun specifically, I think it’s odd how her theme didn’t get a remix. She’s the secondary face of the Street Fighter & her theme is pretty iconic. It’s prime remix territory. But we only ended up with two new remixes in Ultimate. Very odd...
Jill had a rumor too? Also, what's the MH rumor? Not the Imran quote, I hope...
 

KirbyWorshipper2465

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There are some cases that I'm really torn on for this front.

In particular, Luigi's Mansion seems to fit this (possibly for King Boo); only one new song, no new stages, the spirits are for the first two games (at the bare minimum) and the only reference to Luigi's Mansion 3 in the base game is Luigi's new throws. Tellingly, LM3 is one of the few recent Nintendo games to not have a DLC spirit board at all.

In regards to Lloyd and MH stuff, I wouldn't hold my breath on it since we have yet to see their Mii costumes from 4 come back, and as far as I've seen Smash 4 costumes being saved for Ultimate DLC generally doesn't lead to promotions.
 
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7NATOR

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I would add any Assist Trophy Potential promotion just by their very nature

I imagine alot of them were perhaps considered as Fighters perhaps, but it did not work out intially. If you believe in the idea of of Assist Promotion in FP2, then they definitely qualify for Second chance theory

Also even if it is a Crackpot, I can't put Undertale under Second Chance theory if the theory is really concerned with planned characters in Base game. even with the proposed scenraio, it's only after Sans got much good reception, which implies Undertle never considered for Fighter

But if extend to planned DLC, than perhaps it fits though
 

ZoroCarlos

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I just think Undertale's specific case is fishy, so I'm considering it an exception even if it doesn't match the rest of the considerations. It's just a me personally thing, so we can keep it in or out of the discussion as you please.
With that said I would consider Undertale a likelier candidate for a hypothetical FP3 than the current one.
 

Golden Icarus

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The thing about the Seven Squares leak is that it's compiled from multiple different sources and made into a list. I wasn't around for that period of speculation, but I'm not really sure how credible it is.
True, but I imagine Verge wouldn’t have brought up all 7 names if he didn’t believe that there was at least some credibility to them.
 

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Jill had a rumor too? Also, what's the MH rumor? Not the Imran quote, I hope...
Back in spring 2019, IndieGamerChick claimed that Banjo was coming to Smash & that Jill was planned for base but was cut.

& yeah, I meant the Imran quote. I think people
misinterpret that, I don’t think he meant that Byleth was just slapped over MonHun. Moreso that Byleth was adapted to take on MonHun’s multi weapon & slow but heavy hitting style. Which I can definitely see being a possibility, it’s a neat playstyle for a character so why not retool it for someone else?
 

SharkLord

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Back in spring 2019, IndieGamerChick claimed that Banjo was coming to Smash & that Jill was planned for base but was cut.

& yeah, I meant the Imran quote. I think people
misinterpret that, I don’t think he meant that Byleth was just slapped over MonHun. Moreso that Byleth was adapted to take on MonHun’s multi weapon & slow but heavy hitting style. Which I can definitely see being a possibility, it’s a neat playstyle for a character so why not retool it for someone else?
I see. I'll have to look into the IGC leak and how credible she is.

As for the Byleth/MH thing, I can see Sakurai reinterpreting a moveset idea he really liked, but what gives me pause is the fact that they were allegedly planned as far back as the base game, which pushes it into the realm of disbelief. Greninja, Incineroar, and Corrin each had about a year between their decisions and their home game's release; Even with the 3H delay, that would still be two-to-three years in advance. If they wanted someone from the latest FE game, Alm and Celica were right there. Heck, Imran even prefaced the leak by saying "This could be bull%$#@, don't trust me." I don't think we could take that into account.

But anyways, back to IGC. How much did she call correctly, and how much did she get wrong?
 

zferolie

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I like this theory, and it seems plausible. A character i think benefits from this theory a lot is Shantae. Her spirits are the final spirits listed in the code in base game, and more importantly, she is the only 3rd party character(possibly any character) in the game that has an online fighter icon that isnt tied to a playable fighter or assist trophy.

Those 2 things really makes me feel like she was considered for base game but didnt make the cut, but they had the pngs sent by wayforward and decided to still use them.

Speaking of that, i found it odd when wayforward talked a bit on how shantae got spirits, how they just sent art of her and found out later she was in... very fishy as there tends to be a lot more to getting anything from one companies franchise into another. I feell there is more they arent telling us.

But yeah, i feel if this theory is true, shantae has a very high chance.

Others it depends on if there are some others in steves situation, talks that took a long time. I can see crash fitting that situation
 

SpectreJordan

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I see. I'll have to look into the IGC leak and how credible she is.

As for the Byleth/MH thing, I can see Sakurai reinterpreting a moveset idea he really liked, but what gives me pause is the fact that they were allegedly planned as far back as the base game, which pushes it into the realm of disbelief. Greninja, Incineroar, and Corrin each had about a year between their decisions and their home game's release; Even with the 3H delay, that would still be two-to-three years in advance. If they wanted someone from the latest FE game, Alm and Celica were right there. Heck, Imran even prefaced the leak by saying "This could be bull%$#@, don't trust me." I don't think we could take that into account.

But anyways, back to IGC. How much did she call correctly, and how much did she get wrong?
I can’t find the actual article for the life of me, but Cutie Gwen backed me up recently on it existing. If I remember correctly, they didn’t say too much else about Smash but IGC has been a reliable source since the Xbox 360 days.

& yeah, there’s a decent chance the MonHun rumor is false. But it’s still something to take note of IMO

Update:

I’ve found it! I know PapaGenos isn’t super liked here, but he’s the only place I could find this now:


69924759-BFAE-4351-B41B-BFE704C870D8.png

FB841727-2AEF-4A4F-A4E1-A3830E62C052.png

47320EDC-2502-41C8-B8F2-92286A99AEC8.png

75CEFCE2-CF75-4EE3-9A50-DD9E42B90A09.png

The N64 classic is mentioned & that never happened (maybe shifting to N64 Online?) & everyone was talking about Banjo back then, so this isn’t concrete evidence or anything. But I think it’s also something to take note of, atleast for fun.
 
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KirbyWorshipper2465

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Okay, on the topic of the "Capcom trying to get any characters of theirs in at all" angle, I really only see four options:
  • Chun-Li, for the reasons mentioned above. Highly likely.
  • Arthur, due to having suddenly gotten a Switch-exclusive new installment for his series after a long period of dormancy. Somewhat less likely.
  • Phoenix Wright, due to rumblings about DGS coming to the West and AA7 being in the works. Less likely, but possible.
  • Morrigan, due to her attendance record for fighting company crossovers and a SNK Vs. Capcom game rerelease. Infinitesimal, but you never know.
Barring any unforeseen factors outside of MH, anyway.

I just think Undertale's specific case is fishy, so I'm considering it an exception even if it doesn't match the rest of the considerations. It's just a me personally thing, so we can keep it in or out of the discussion as you please.
With that said I would consider Undertale a likelier candidate for a hypothetical FP3 than the current one.
Personally speaking, I don't think it'd get anything else until after its successor/sequel/alt-universe follow-up Deltarune's full version eventually releases before they take a chance on it.

I like this theory, and it seems plausible. A character i think benefits from this theory a lot is Shantae. Her spirits are the final spirits listed in the code in base game, and more importantly, she is the only 3rd party character(possibly any character) in the game that has an online fighter icon that isnt tied to a playable fighter or assist trophy.

Those 2 things really makes me feel like she was considered for base game but didnt make the cut, but they had the pngs sent by wayforward and decided to still use them.

Speaking of that, i found it odd when wayforward talked a bit on how shantae got spirits, how they just sent art of her and found out later she was in... very fishy as there tends to be a lot more to getting anything from one companies franchise into another. I feell there is more they arent telling us.

But yeah, i feel if this theory is true, shantae has a very high chance.

Others it depends on if there are some others in steves situation, talks that took a long time. I can see crash fitting that situation
Yeah, if they don't show up soon, then it really hinges on the confirmation of a FP3 for several of these cases, depending on if we'd hear of it on the 5th or 6th pass character's showcase.

I can’t find the exact quote, but I remember Verge saying that the Square rep for Fighters Pass 1 looked like a toss up between Erdrick and Sephiroth. That could make Sephiroth fit into this theory.

The seven squares that Verge mentioned (Erdrick, Luminary, Slime, Sephiroth, Geno, Crono, Sora) might all fit this theory. We have reason to believe that they were all at least considered. Obviously, three of them are already playable, Slime is a Mii hat and taunt, and Geno is a costume. That still leaves Crono and Sora unaccounted for. I doubt that we’d get two Square characters in this pass, but that still makes them worth keeping an eye on for the future.
Crono would probably depend on a rerelease or remake for the first game in the Chrono series, so I wouldn't count him quite yet.

Sora, however, is more interesting given the situation of the KH license ownership. I wouldn't be surprised if he took much longer to include than any other character in the entire roster if talks with Disney will need some effort.
 

Nazyrus

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Ahem, Isaac definitely could be in the same position that Arms was. Please keep up with me as I describe Isaac's situation:

Both series lacked new music (or in case of Arms it was music entirely missing), both got Miis and ATs to compensate on base game content, and both were missing important spirits from its series, that make no sense to be randomly missing, like main cast people I mean. There's also the fact that Motoi Sakuraba has been returning in this pass 2 to do some arrangements to some dlc fighters' music tracks, like one track from Steve and one from Sephiroth, and I personally doubt he just came to do a couple of new arrangements for pass 2…

Isaac still has the 2 tracks he had back in Brawl, and neither of them are from the first GS game, let alone none of them is his actual damn fighting theme. The themes we have are the second games' final boss, and Dark Dawn's overworld theme, if i recall correctly. He got NOTHING new music wise, not even his own damn theme. There was literally nothing stopping them from giving that to him in base, just like we all felt nothing was stopping Arms from getting a single track.

As someone who has contact with a NoA source (ex-ambassador as of now), I got confirmation from him that back then, after that last presentation before the launch of the game (where coincidentally both arms and golden sun's isaac were shown…) of how aware Nintendo was at the offices about the backlash Isaac got, including the compilation of sad reactions from fans and non-fans even, on youtube. Which brings the attention to how Pyra (or xenoblade 2 in general) is now happening in DLC pass 2, whether that's similar to Arms in the sense of being base roster thought content, or if it's actual a backlash response.

Was there someone else that had a response to previous backlash? Actually yes, the Bomberman mii was their response to not having a playable form of Bomberman in base game, even if they didn't make him a full fighter, he is still playable in some form now. Mii costume is still a playable form of a character, so technically the mii costume of bomberman IS an AT upgrade, whether people want to accept it or not, it went from non playable form to some sort of playable form, the only difference between a mii costume and a fighter is not having a unique moveset, which doesn't really mean an obstacle to the whole point of being upgraded, period. Isaac is already an AT, spirit and mii costume, just like Arms was, so if the feeling/theme/whatever you call it of this pass continues the way it is, the only way I could see them responding to his HUGE backlash from back then is by actually making him a fighter. Or hell, maybe not him, but Felix or Matthew (Isaac's son) could be a fighter instead. Point is, I think Golden Sun fits perfectly the theory of getting stuff that couldn't make it in base game, or stuff that got heavy backlash reactions from fans, and was clearly compensated in a weird incomplete way like Arms was (and both were shown in that very last presentation prior to launch of the game).

Just a thought anyway. I think Isaac totally fits the bill, personally 🤷‍♂️ in the end it's all a matter of what Nintendo's decisions are behind each character, which is never a constant for ALL fighters that have gotten in, there's always different reasons, be it fan demand, business reasons (promoting something), etc.
 
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SpectreJordan

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Okay, on the topic of the "Capcom trying to get any characters of theirs in at all" angle, I really only see four options:
  • Chun-Li, for the reasons mentioned above. Highly likely.
  • Arthur, due to having suddenly gotten a Switch-exclusive new installment for his series after a long period of dormancy. Somewhat less likely.
  • Phoenix Wright, due to rumblings about DGS coming to the West and AA7 being in the works. Less likely, but possible.
  • Morrigan, due to her attendance record for fighting company crossovers and a SNK Vs. Capcom game rerelease. Infinitesimal, but you never know.
Barring any unforeseen factors outside of MH, anyway.



Personally speaking, I don't think it'd get anything else until after its successor/sequel/alt-universe follow-up Deltarune's full version eventually releases before they take a chance on it.



Yeah, if they don't show up soon, then it really hinges on the confirmation of a FP3 for several of these cases, depending on if we'd hear of it on the 5th or 6th pass character's showcase.



Crono would probably depend on a rerelease or remake for the first game in the Chrono series, so I wouldn't count him quite yet.

Sora, however, is more interesting given the situation of the KH license ownership. I wouldn't be surprised if he took much longer to include than any other character in the entire roster if talks with Disney will need some effort.
Why no Dante? After the huge success of DMCV, Capcom’s stated that they’re aiming to push it as one of their big series again alongside Street Fighter, Mega Man, Monster Hunter & Resident Evil.
 

KirbyWorshipper2465

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Why no Dante? After the huge success of DMCV, Capcom’s stated that they’re aiming to push it as one of their big series again alongside Street Fighter, Mega Man, Monster Hunter & Resident Evil.
I'm unsure about him overall, after all the crying for wolf that happened over DMC3's Switch port and that wishful thinking from V's actor (who obviously wouldn't have any say in whether Dante is in or not).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5LIC8r9zf0U (linked due to language)

The things he has going for him at the moment is that the original three games are on Switch and he didn't get spirited like Resident Evil, though who knows how long it'd take before he got confirmed, when the fighter waiting list might be big.
 
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SharkLord

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Quick heads-up, this is for discussing Second Chance Theory. I'd like it if we tried to keep the discussion related to said theory, how candidates could possibly fit in with said theory, and whether or not the suggested ways would work. Not sure where Capcom came in, but I'm popping in to make sure it doesn't go too off-topic.

Of course, if this really was tied to Second Chance Theory, I'll take the L on this one.
 
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KirbyWorshipper2465

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I think the case for Capcom here is "second chance for them to get a character/property of theirs in there, no matter who it is", so I think it still fits. :drshrug:

On a different note, what are your thoughts on Splatoon 2's content? Not sure about the songs, but several noteworthy characters are missing from the spirit list.
 
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SharkLord

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I think the case for Capcom here is "second chance for them to get a character/property of theirs in there, no matter who it is", so I think it still fits. :drshrug:
Well, it could, but I'm not if it applies to entire companies. The main crux of the theory is tying up loose ends, and I don't think a general idea of "Someone from Capcom" was on the planning sheet. I feel like it'd be a little more specific than just "Capcom person," and assuming this was for the base game, I think Ken would fill that role anyways.
Of course, I could just be misinterpreting your point completely too :drshrug:
 

KirbyWorshipper2465

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What I'm saying is depending on who the character would be, it'd be a Steve situation or a Seph/MinMin/Pyra&Mythra one, if we get anyone new from Capcom outside of the base game. There's always the chance that plans for Chun-Li might be dropped and they try a different property (similarly to how insider rumors about Resident Evil stated that wouldn't get a character due to "internal politics").
 
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zferolie

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Quick heads-up, this is for discussing Second Chance Theory. I'd like it if we tried to keep the discussion related to said theory, how candidates could possibly fit in with said theory, and whether or not the suggested ways would work. Not sure where Capcom came in, but I'm popping in to make sure it doesn't go too off-topic.

Of course, if this really was tied to Second Chance Theory, I'll take the L on this one.
Just want to make sure that you feel shantae fits the second chance theory. I feel she does but dont want to be considered derailing the thread
 

SharkLord

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What I'm saying is depending on who the character would be, it'd be a Steve situation or a Seph/MinMin/Pyra&Mythra one, if we get anyone new from Capcom outside of the base game.
Not sure I quite follow. So it would be either an old deal that was never resolved until later, or a pack that fills in the gaps of an already-existing series? Am I getting this right?
Just want to make sure that you feel shantae fits the second chance theory. I feel she does but dont want to be considered derailing the thread
I think she fits, though I'm not sure if I should file her under Theories or Content with no Fighters. There's a fair bit of overlap with other categories already. Think I might dissolve that and leave a couple left as "Other."
 

UserKev

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Decidueye gets my vote. I totally agree with any above or eventual posts mentioning the owl. Rayman and maybe Captain Toad. And Shantae I guess Sign Shantae..

Decidueye has it's absence from Ultimate in it's favor. I hope. I want to see Lampy and Lionel_B be happy.
 
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