Usually when I'm thinking of newcomers I try to balance what I want with who I believe is likely, and while I'll do that to some extent, this top 10 will mainly be who I truly want most strongly, as if Sakurai was catering to my every whim.
1 - King K. Rool. The King. My most wanted newcomer by a large margin, ever since Diddy was announced for Brawl to present day. I rooted for him for Brawl, for Smash 4, for Smash 4's DLC, and will root for him in Ultimate. If he doesn't make it in, I'll root for him in Ultimate's DLC unless he gets hard-deconfirmed as an AT or stage hazard. I have a lot of hope for his chances after Ridley but it's never a guarantee. And if he gets in, then maybe he'll also return to the DKC series, but one thing at a time...
2 - Banjo-Kazooie. Been a project dream character of mine since Melee, Kazooie and Tooie are some of my all-time favorite games. With the ballot, their chances are probably the best they've ever been, but I'd still put them as unlikely given there are probably far more relevant third-party characters to choose from. Especially if Simon is actually in.
3. Geno. After those first two, though, everyone else is kind of a bonus that I'm not 100% rooting for either way. I have never really anticipated or pushed for Geno, but do think he would be cool. But after Ridley, and especially if someone else like K. Rool gets in, Geno actually feels possible this time around. Here's hoping.
4. Dixie Kong. Dixie is tough for me because while I'd love for her to be added, her getting in as a unique character would be such a bad sign for K. Rool assuming he hasn't been confirmed by that point. I would be happy at her inclusion whether she's unique, a semi-clone, or even an Echo, but again only if K. Rool is also in as a newcomer. But best timeline we get both of them as unique fighters, even if one of them has to be DLC.
5. Shadow. Again, never really anticipated or desired him particularly, but with the rebranding of clones as "Echoes", people are much more open to the idea than ever before. And with Knuckles being an AT, this could be Shadow's day. I have a lot of fond memories of Sonic Adventure 2, and Shadow's inclusion as an Echo would actually be pretty hype.
6. Shovel Knight. I think an "indie rep" would really balance out the roster and would be a huge beacon to the industry that even an indie character could eventually be in something as prestigious as Smash. And Shovel Knight seems like the best candidate for that. Unlike Minecraft Steve, he has a moveset and an actual personality. I wouldn't mind Shantae, either, but I give the edge to Shovel Knight with his Amiibo and Switch prevalence.
7. Dark Samus. Never played any Metroid games, and before E3 I was actually thinking about Sylux as the new Metroid rep over Ridley and Dark Samus. But Dark Samus as an Echo, with Samus' missing Dark skin, could actually be really cool and round out the Metroid roster even more.
8. Isaac. Also have never played Golden Sun, but I think this guy deserves it after the amount of support he's gotten, which has never been on the huge level of Ridley or K. Rool, or more recently Waluigi, but Isaac's support has been constant ever since the Brawl era and I think he'd make a great addition.
9. Decidueye. At this point I'm just rounding out the roster with well-liked and sensible picks, so Decidueye could be this game's Greninja. With the reinclusion of Ivysaur and Squirtle, there feels like less need for the "Grass/Fire/Water" starter trio to be complete, but between the three Gen VII starters, Decidueye seems like the best fit.
10. Ashley. Similar to the K. Rool/Banjo/Geno situation. She had almost no chance back in the day, but has grown increasingly possible due to fan requests and the ballot. While I'd personally rather someone like 9-Volt or even Orbulon, I fully realize that if any WarioWare character were to make it, it would be Ashley, and she has some solid moveset potential.
HMs go to Simon (whether Vergeben is accurate or not), echo Chrom, echo Funky, Bandana Dee, and Impa. If we're throwing in an NES retro rep, it would have to be Excitebiker since Takamaru is deconfirmed. Also Waluigi of course, who was probably top 5 for me before E3, but is deconfirmed and his future chances are probably ruined as well due to all the toxic controversy surrounding him.
Well, time for an update. My opinions and stances changed on some even before the Direct, and of course the Direct confirmed and deconfirmed a few of them. Rool and Dark Sammy got in, while Ashley and my shovel boi got deconfirmed.
So now we're at a point where it's going to be hard for me to come up with ten that I genuinely want. This time I'll actually count down.
New honorable mentions are Bandana Dee, Elma, and Rayman for original fighters, and Ken, Impa, and Isabelle for echo fighters.
10.
Excitebiker. I don't think at this point we're getting an NES retro rep at all, but if we do, there's pretty much no other option that makes sense. A moveset involving a guy on a motorcycle sounds just crazy enough for Sakurai's tastes.
9.
Skull Kid. I struggle to think of a moveset for him, but he's popular and a Majora's Mask rep would be hype. I'm not sure if the Moon AT helps or hurts his chances. Zelda really deserves a rep that's not part of the Triforce, and with Midna and Ghirahim deconfirmed, it's time for
Groose Skull Kid to have his day.
8.
Paper Mario. Not one I consider very likely or
strongly desire, but would be cool to see. Especially if he is based on the first 2-3 games in the series, and uses a combination of partners from the first two games in his moveset. How cool would it be if, like the games, he had partners that would "tag in and out" by showing up for specific attacks. And get out of here with your G&W Echo theory, them being 2D and having a hammer attack are literally the only things they have in common.
7.
Incineroar. I'm probably leaning on Verg a bit here, because previously my pick was Decidueye like everybody else. However, if I'm being honest with myself, Litten
was my starter of choice in Sun. Sakurai seems to have similar starter tastes as me, too, with Greninja for X, and Charizard as my Kanto starter in X. So I have no objections to Incineroar continuing that trend. If we do get a Gen 7 rep that
isn't a starter, my support is behind Buzzwole 1000%.
6.
Shantae. In lieu of Shovel Knight, she's my new candidate for the indie rep. Of which I don't think is happening, at least not until DLC, but if there is one, it'll be her. Never played her games, but from what I have seen she has a fun personality and design.
5.
Isaac. We've now reached the tier of characters that I would consider myself genuinely rooting for, as opposed to just casually thinking they'd be cool. As I mentioned before, this guy is from a series I have never once touched, but his fans have made me pull for the guy. In that sense he's very similar to my #2 pick.
4.
Dixie Kong. She's moved down one spot, due to the fact that if she is included, it'll be as an Echo (see: K. Rool confirmation + Chrom/Dark Samus giving us more insight on the definition of Echoes). Give her DK's up B for her ponytail, a gumball popgun, and then get the rest from Diddy and you have a solid fourth(!) DK rep. Here's hoping.
3.
Shadow. He's moved above Dixie, partly because of what I've mentioned above, but partly because thanks to Richter his chances have gone up and that in turn has made me more hype for him. Sonic Adventure 2 was another one of my childhood defining games, so Shadow's inclusion as an Echo would be something incredible, that I never knew I wanted so bad until now. He could have some combination of these as moves that could differ from Sonic's, while still being based off an existing fighter: Mewtwo's Teleport for Chaos Control, Bayo's Witch Time for Chaos Control, or Wario's Bike for a bike. Just no guns, please, anything but that.
2.
Geno. I only very casually played Super Mario RPG, only ever got 1 or 2 of the seven stars. As I have said, I never rooted for him until now. His supporters have made themselves known, and have even gotten me hyped for him. This puppet might finally have his day, and the stars (no pun intended) seem to be lining up in his favor, perhaps as the very last newcomer announced.
1.
Banjo-Kazooie. My new #1 with our big King confirmed. Kazooie and Tooie left a huge mark on my childhood. Like, I still replay those games (plus DK64) annually. I'm hopeful with the Ballot + Verg mentioning Minecraft (meaning Microsoft) content. But I'm also cautious, as we already have Simon, plus Geno is even more likely, so that's already 2 new third-parties - and that's not even counting Echo Fighters. There's also the stage thing, but there's no rule that says third-parties
have to have an accompanying stage.
).
