Of course there's the possibility of Blue Toad still being a character, but I don't think it's very high, and I've never thought that to be honest.
I'm not a Toad supporter personally, I hate his character, but still I say keep it up! There's never any reason to give up until a definite deconfirmation! It's actually comparable to Toon Link's background appearance in the Spirit Tracks stage. He was shown before we've had a confirmation on Toon Link, and Sakurai commented in June/July that no characters had been cut yet, which means that Toon Link's background appearance doesn't mean anything concerning his chances. The very same can be said for Toad, heck, for all we know Sakurai is just trying to keep Peach's moveset intact (or maybe not considering his comment, which might just lend an even bigger chance for Toad.) What I'm getting at here is that even if I hate Toad and certainly wouldn't enjoy playing as him, his chances are not dead.
If he's in then I'm not expecting him to be announced with Super Mario 3D World, I believe Zelda will take November and Diddy Kong will take December, and I don't think newcomers will get revealed randomly on the site, in fact I don't think that we'll even see another newcomer reveal for the rest of the year, I believe it was September or nothing. As I said at the beginning of this post, I have never been a big believer in Toad's chances, I'm not even a believer in any Mario newcomers' chances, but I want to repeat that his chances haven't dived to 0%, or even 5% or 10%.