If you said "They won't release after Christmas", then my response was "You obviously weren't waiting for Brawl."
If you said "They won't release on Black Friday", then my response was "You obviously haven't seen the Wii U sales."
Nintendo follows NO RULES. Expect NOTHING.
Delays happen. But the original plan was obviously for December 3, 2007, and that was rushing it. The game still had much more to complete.
I know another delay could happen.
But with:
all of the promotion of this game
the fact there's already TV spots for it (there's one on the Wii U eShop, at least for the 3DS version)
The icons for the game (that appear on your home screen/in the shop) have been recently uploaded
The GameExplain interview stated the game would be out BEFORE black friday
we have a listing from Video Products Distributors, the U.S. wholesale retailer... for 11/21
the eShop is FILLED with videos for the game
With Brawl, Nintendo didn't need to convince people to buy their system. People were literally being trampled to death and drank water until it killed them for the Wii.
With the Wii U, Nintendo literally cannot afford to not have this game out by Christmas.
They NEED this Christmas to boost their sales, and they need this game out BEFORE the BIGGEST shopping day OF THE YEAR to sell this console.
Black Friday will most likely dawn a bundle with Super Smash Bros. and Mario Kart for like, $350 or something.
I work for GameStop. As soon as I hear ANYTHING regarding Smash, I'll post about it. November 21st sounds extremely likely to me.