Hi! I usually write in the Villager matchup thread and saw someone say yall were talking about Villager vs Kirby here, so I hope I can be helpful! I fight a few good Kirby's on smashboards so I think I know what I'm talking about, but as always, open to discussion, if someone disagrees with what I say I'd love to discuss further. Anyway, here's what I wrote there:
Villager vs Kirby
Okay! ...where to start... I guess with what you can pocket. Kirby doesn't have a lot of projectiles, but you can pocket the... wind or whatever it is that comes out of Kirby's sword after his up-b. It's not really that worth it, but good to know.
Speaking of recoveries, both are pretty great! Villager's is faster, both his balloons and riding gyroid, but his riding gyroid leaves him a bit vulnerable at times, even though you can slow it down and do mindgames, and Balloons have no hitbox (disregarding customs) And Kirby can use attacks in the middle of his jumps, while his up-b has a few hitbox's. Only thing is it's rather linear, so pretty easily punished a well timed bowling ball.
It's rather tricky but if you can execute a footstool then Kirby will lose all his jumps and have to up-b, which you could punish with a turnip spike or just a turnip gimp. After that Kirby may have a tough time getting to the ledge as all he can do is go straight up and down pretty much, if you can master a footstool punish then killing Kirby could be pretty easy. However, it isn't easy to get that footstool, so don't be so relieved.
Whereas if Villager is off stage and trying to recover with balloons, I think Kirby may be able to pop his balloons with a back-air, jump, back-air, jump back to the stage with good name. Or maybe a well sniped forward air? Kirby can also try a down-b kill if your on a walled stage and being to predictable and vertical with your recovery.
Basically, both recoveries are pretty great and you need to be pretty on point to finish each other off. Both have spikes that need some luck, Villager's more random but rewarding, and both can gimp with good enough aim.
As for killing on-stage, both have some hard hits. Kirby has a better grab that can be converted into pretty good combos, sometimes ending with a smash. Be wary of foward throw to around four up-airs to a back-air. Or a down-air to a grab or smash. Try to break these combos with nair or good DI and use of 2nd jump.
You should also beware Kirby's down-b. It's strong and can catch you when you try to kill with an up-air. It's pretty tempting knowing Kirby is a light character, but you have to stay away from directly under him. At least his rock move is very linear and has some significant start-up and end-lag. Just be patient.
You should try and rack up damage with gyroids, slingshots, well placed tilts (all come in handy quite often) Short hop down-air is also a great approach as always, when Kirby doesnt wanna jump - maybe cause of a gyroid ya launched. Slingshot combos can still work, but due to Kirby's small size, not as often as it may work on other characters. However quick follow ups like down-tilt to up-air or down-air to forward-tilt are still pretty great. Spacing out usually works, but be careful because Kirby does have the ability to jump over your walls.
I rarely see Kirby use his hammer, especially in this matchup, there's no time when Villager is constantly keeping his space and pressuring with slingshots.
The tree can come in handy, the axe too, the watering can however is usually useless. When Kirby recovers with his up-b from below the ledge, the watering can probably wont have an effect. When Kirby uses it above the ledge his sword will always hit Villager's head before the watering can's droplets hit Kirby.
Kirby's copy ability can be very useful, pocketing much of Villager's moveset. However, Villager will now be able to pocket back some of his own moveset - and sucking Villager in can be quite difficult with the startup and endlag. Especially when Villager wants to be quick and jumpy up close, and keep his space with a gyroid gaining stage control beyond mid-range. (I'm worried a lot of people imagine copying Villager is just that easy, but you have to chase him down and make a sorta good read, Villager doesn't really wanna stay in one spot, especially up close. Only maybe if he wants to cut down a tree on you - but hey, you might die to a tree as you get him in your mouth) But! If Villager DOES get caught, Kirby gets a much more useful neutral-special! He can steal a gyroid and approach noticeably easier by covering his approach with it.
So... Both are good in the air, both are pretty good off-stage with Villager having a bit of an advantage, and both are good on stage with Kirby having a liiil bit of an advantage. You both don't need to be that risky, but your combos and hits should be on point. Solid aim and timing and you should be rewarded nicely. One or the other might have a slight advantage, but unless I'm completely forgetting something I think this matchup is pretty even. 50:50!
Stages Villager would prefer: Lylat, Battlefield, maybe Kongo Jungle
Stages Kirby would prefer: Probably Wuhu, Skyloft, Halberd