The Official Thread For the Sal Romano/Gematsu Leak

[The Real Gamer]

It amazes me how many people still believe that Villager or any Animal Crossing rep was an "obvious" pick for the E3 reveal. Seriously has to be the worst case of hindsight bias I've ever seen on these boards... It just simply isn't true in the slightest.

I have provided data and hard evidence to back this up multiple times yet for whatever reason this blatantly false belief is still held by many on these boards.

Just goes to show that people will choose believe what they want to believe regardless of it being true or not.

 

[viewtifulduck82]

It amazes me how many people still believe that Villager or any Animal Crossing rep was an "obvious" pick for the E3 reveal. Seriously has to be the worst case of hindsight bias I've ever seen on these boards... It just simply isn't true in the slightest.

I have provided data and hard evidence to back this up multiple times yet for whatever reason this blatantly false belief is still held by many on these boards.

Just goes to show that people will choose believe what they want to believe regardless of it being true or not.

THIS. It was stated by Sakurai that AC wouldn't get a rep because the characters were deemed un-fit to be fighters in the smash bros series. And then we got the villager. villager was not an easy guess to anyone that actually paid attention to Sakurai. People are only now saying it was obvious because of sales and what not. Hindsight has 20/20 vision guys.

 

[Stompman]

I think a lot of people are discrediting this leak because of Chorus Men, which is bad reasoning, considering that this game is made by the same guy that created a moveset out of nowhere for Captain Falcon, Mr Game and Watch, ROB, and the Wii Fit Trainer to name a few.

I honestly think this is a true leak, although I am hopefully not being biased, as Shulk is the last newcomer for this game that I'm 100% rooting for.

 

[BluePikmin11]

How was Villager an obvious pick when he has been rejected by Sakurai in pre-Brawl development.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

How was Villager an obvious pick when he has been rejected by Sakurai in pre-Brawl development.

Because the past repeats itself. AC itself already was a highly popular series, and many thought it could easily have a fun character. So guessing it was not hard.

But here's the kicker, Bowser, Mewtwo, and King Dedede were planned for 64. Why's this matter? For whatever reason, they were taken out. But they came back in a later game. Any scrapped character or one that we know Sakurai thought about is bound to be something someone will guess. It just plain isn't that hard to believe. Wii Fit Trainer, sure, to a degree. But hardly Villager.

 

[Muster]

Wow, these all suck. The only one I'd want is Shulk.

This leak is tomfoolery.

Something tells me there's more than a little Bias going into this one.

Also, if you had read the thread then you'd see that pretty much every point you brought up has pretty much been shot down already.

 

[Spazzy_D]

It's not a leak, it's a prophecy. Please do not blaspheme.

 

[ChikoLad]

You're mistaking evidence for proof. We haven't seen proof, but it doesn't mean we have grounds to dismiss the leak.
This leak has been backed up by a very unlikely coincidence, hence it would be irrational to dismiss it.

The fact that you say it's credible shows you haven't rejected it anyway. Which is rational.

I've already provided the proof that this leak isn't what it seems at first glance. Check my previous posts. The story doesn't make any sense. People are ignoring the story of the leak's origins in favour of believing the leak because it matches up with their wishlists. They aren't believing it because it's logical, they are believing it because it sounds nice. I guarantee you, that if this leak had characters nobody was asking for, people wouldn't give it the time of day.

A very unlikely coincidence is just that - a very unlikely coincidence. And in this case, the predicted characters are extremely safe. So getting some of these guys right isn't actually unlikely.

And as I said, "credible" and "real", are two different things. I could kill a man and remove all of the evidence of my presence at the crime scene, and suddenly, claiming innocence is a credible claim despite the fact I commited the crime, as there is no evidence. However, it would be foolish to believe someone because of credibility. It is the best mask to hide behind, after all.

In this case, the leak is "credible" to people because the characters on the list not only make sense, but are mostly wanted. So when these characters are revealed, people suddenly think the leak is more credible. At this point, people are willing to blindly follow the leak. However, what everyone seems to forget, is that a leak is information coming from the inside. Until we see proof that this guy is getting his information from within the development studio, we have every right to shrug it off as a fabrication. So far, all I'm seeing from this leak is safe guesses, and vagueness. Not only that, but why leak just characters? Everyone was wondering what Smash Run was before it was officially shown off in the Direct. Why not say "there is a new mode called Smash Run"? Or disclose a tidbit or two about the online modes? THAT would have gave me reason to believe the leak, because it's not something that could have been based on fandom research or market research. Not to mention that a "tipper" and "messenger" relationship being involved is very hard to believe. Let's just say that if this leak is real, Salromano is VERY foolish, and I don't believe anyone would be so foolish as to publicly leak information about a AAA game on a forum, where their IP address can easily be tracked.

So no, I don't believe this leak. There are far, far too many holes, and the more I analyse, the more I find. Even if every character on this list shows up in the game, I still won't have any reason to believe it, unless I hear a news report of someone being apprehended for the leak, or see a photo of the studio itself, or something decisive like that. It's fine if people want to believe the leak because it sounds nice, or they just simply have faith. But let's not act like it's above other leaks right now. Right now, the Palutena leak is the only leak that I can actually take seriously. This one is just like any other leak.

 

[Ulevo]

It amazes me how many people still believe that Villager or any Animal Crossing rep was an "obvious" pick for the E3 reveal. Seriously has to be the worst case of hindsight bias I've ever seen on these boards... It just simply isn't true in the slightest.

I have provided data and hard evidence to back this up multiple times yet for whatever reason this blatantly false belief is still held by many on these boards.

Just goes to show that people will choose believe what they want to believe regardless of it being true or not.

Saying that Villager was an obvious choice for an addition to the roster is like saying everyone knew Mr. Game & Watch was going to be a character in Melee. I call shenanigans.

 

[Miles Pierre]

Because the past repeats itself. AC itself already was a highly popular series, and many thought it could easily have a fun character. So guessing it was not hard.

But here's the kicker, Bowser, Mewtwo, and King Dedede were planned for 64. Why's this matter? For whatever reason, they were taken out. But they came back in a later game. Any scrapped character or one that we know Sakurai thought about is bound to be something someone will guess. It just plain isn't that hard to believe. Wii Fit Trainer, sure, to a degree. But hardly Villager.

Unfinished characters are not the same as rejected characters. You're making no sense.

 

[Second Power]

I posted this a few pages back but it was at the bottom of the page and in the middle of an argument, so I'd like to give it another try.

If the leaker's information is outdated (as is one theory), keep in mind that some of the unannounced characters may have joined the new 'Forbidden 7'. Just something I found interesting.

So, if the leaker was looking at a pre-dev roster, Greninja wouldn't be on it, it'd literally be "Pokemon from X/Y". That'd also explain "Animal Crossing guy" rather than Villager, since he wouldn't have the finalized name. Similarly, Sakurai (at the time of creating the roster) might not have known the problem the Ice Climbers would pose. Chorus Men could easily have been cut from the roster due to being Ice Climbers + 1. Additionally, Rosalina might not have been on the roster at that time at all. Is it worth considering that he may not be looking at the current dev roster, but rather an outdated one from the planning stages?

 

[Spazzy_D]

Check my previous posts. The story doesn't make any sense. People are ignoring the story of the leak's origins in favour of believing the leak because it matches up with their wishlists.

The hell are you talking about? This doesn't match ANYONE's wishlist, the entire rumors thread was locked largely because people were raging that K. Rool and Ridley weren't included, and that Pacman, Mii, and Chorus men were.

 

[Morbi]

It amazes me how many people still believe that Villager or any Animal Crossing rep was an "obvious" pick for the E3 reveal. Seriously has to be the worst case of hindsight bias I've ever seen on these boards... It just simply isn't true in the slightest.

I have provided data and hard evidence to back this up multiple times yet for whatever reason this blatantly false belief is still held by many on these boards.

Just goes to show that people will choose believe what they want to believe regardless of it being true or not.

I have actually seen people assert that Villager was obvious to everyone who didn't know that he was discredited by Sakurai... self referential incoherence, much?

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Unfinished characters are not the same as rejected characters. You're making no sense.

There's no difference in what I was referring to. They were all planned and didn't make it into the final game. Then they came back for a later date. It doesn't matter whether they were scrapped or rejected. My point is all were planned. Anybody thinking they could be playable at a later date due to being planned isn't that odd.

That's my entire point. Villager is not even that odd of a pick because we knew he was planned well before 4 was created. Seeing him in a future game is a hard to guess area, but not impossible. I don't believe for a second that nobody could guess him at all. Likewise, the phrase was "Animal Crossing Guy", so it could mean him, or any playable character from AC as is. And AC is a hugely popular series with a super easy moveset to make. It's not an unbelievable guess whatsoever, not after I've seen so many wants for a moveset from a rep, as well as some nice and unique ones made.

I hope that was explained clearly enough.

 

[ChikoLad]

The hell are you talking about? This doesn't match ANYONE's wishlist, the entire rumors thread was locked largely because people were raging that K. Rool and Ridley weren't included, and that Pacman, Mii, and Chorus men were.

K.Rool and Ridley aren't the only characters people want, you know. And this forum does not make up the millions of people looking forward to the game. Heck, I've always seen K.Rool as a niche pick. Outside of this website, nobody seems to care about him.

Chorus Men and Wii Fit Trainer are literally the only characters that nobody was really asking for. The rest have quite the following.

 

[Spazzy_D]

K.Rool and Ridley aren't the only characters people want, you know. And this forum does not make up the millions of people looking forward to the game. Heck, I've always seen K.Rool as a niche pick. Outside of this website, nobody seems to care about him.

Chorus Men and Wii Fit Trainer are literally the only characters that nobody was really asking for. The rest have quite the following.

You are referring to people on this site believing the leak though. So, yes, what this forum wants very much effects your argument.

 

[Morbi]

There's no difference in what I was referring to. They were all planned and didn't make it into the final game. Then they came back for a later date. It doesn't matter whether they were scrapped or rejected. My point is all were planned. Anybody thinking they could be playable at a later date due to being planned isn't that odd.

That's my entire point. Villager is not even that odd of a pick because we knew he was planned well before 4 was created. Seeing him in a future game is a hard to guess area, but not impossible. I don't believe for a second that nobody could guess him at all. Likewise, the phrase was "Animal Crossing Guy", so it could mean him, or any playable character from AC as is. And AC is a hugely popular series with a super easy moveset to make. It's not an unbelievable guess whatsoever, not after I've seen so many wants for a moveset from a rep, as well as some nice and unique ones made.

I hope that was explained clearly enough.

Precisely; objectively speaking, Villager is not much different than Mewtwo. Mewtwo was planned for Smash 64, and he made his appearance in Melee. Villager is no different than Dedede, who was planned for Melee, but appeared in Brawl. Scrapped characters are scrapped characters by definition; it is entirely irrelevant that one had more work done. Villager was cut as he didn't have a feasible move-set; however, Sakurai never definitively stated that he couldn't work in future titles. As such, the guess was plausible, not necessarily logical, but reasonable.

 

[ChikoLad]

You are referring to people on this site believing the leak though. So, yes, what this forum wants very much effects your argument.

And you assume every single person on this site rages at the notion of Ridley and K.Rool not being in the game?

C'mon, you don't give us enough credit!

What this forum wants does not effect my argument at all, I was just pointing out a mindset that SOME people have. I did not even specify members of this forum. I was simply referring to believers of the leak in general.

And even if I was speaking exclusively of this site, that doesn't change the rest of my post. What you quoted was a very insignificant portion of it. My main point is, that even if every single character in the leak shows up, that doesn't make it real. Just means it's a well made fake. In reality, there are too many problems with the notion of this being real.

 

[Miles Pierre]

There's no difference in what I was referring to. They were all planned and didn't make it into the final game. Then they came back for a later date. It doesn't matter whether they were scrapped or rejected. My point is all were planned. Anybody thinking they could be playable at a later date due to being planned isn't that odd.

That's my entire point. Villager is not even that odd of a pick because we knew he was planned well before 4 was created. Seeing him in a future game is a hard to guess area, but not impossible. I don't believe for a second that nobody could guess him at all. Likewise, the phrase was "Animal Crossing Guy", so it could mean him, or any playable character from AC as is. And AC is a hugely popular series with a super easy moveset to make. It's not an unbelievable guess whatsoever, not after I've seen so many wants for a moveset from a rep, as well as some nice and unique ones made.

I hope that was explained clearly enough.

I'll say this again and this time I hope you listen. Unfinished characters are not the same as rejected/denied/dismissed characters. You're trying to equate Sakurai even mentioning Animal Crossing as "planned characters" and you're trying to equate unfinished characters (characters that we deemed acceptable but due to time/budget constraints did not make it in e.g. Bowser, Toon Link, ect) as denied characters (characters who were deemed not suitable for a fighting game e.g. Villager). You're making no sense. Let me give you a refresher on what Sakurai said:

we looked at games like Animal Crossing and Nintendogs, where there aren't really any characters that lend themselves to fighting, and we decided not to include characters from those series as fighting characters.

Stop being obtuse. Villager was not a "planned character". Bowser was not dismissed as a playable character. You're using two completely different scenarios and trying to mislead people.
Here's an example:

"I would never date X because she's fat and I don't want to date a bigger woman. It just wouldn't work. I'm not attracted to bigger woman. But there's another girl who is not fat and quite attractive to boot. I would have gone out with Y but I had to move to a different city ... Such a shame" Then a year later you find out that this guy dated Y and currently IS dating X. So you're telling me that a) it was obvious to see that he would date X (the fat girl) because b) he planned to go out with both women....

right....that makes total sense.

 

[Spazzy_D]

And you assume every single person on this site rages at the notion of Ridley and K.Rool not being in the game?

C'mon, you don't give us enough credit!

What this forum wants does not effect my argument at all, I was just pointing out a mindset that SOME people have. I did not even specify members of this forum. I was simply referring to believers of the leak in general.

And even if I was speaking exclusively of this site, that doesn't change the rest of my post. What you quoted was a very insignificant portion of it. My main point is, that even if every single character in the leak shows up, that doesn't make it real. Just means it's a well made fake. In reality, there are too many problems with the notion of this being real.

You obviously feel that people on this site agree with the leak though, and you are stating the reason people believe in the leak is because they want to. I am just pointing out that the majority of the people on this site who believe the leak quickly follow it up with "but I don't like it" or "I really hope that's not ALL the new comers."

If Sal does not have any insider info, then he is just a Smash fan like us. If you look at Neogaf and Smashboards, you will find hundreds of posts in prediction threads relating to the E3 reveals. Someone did the math a while back, there were 0 instance of Wii Fit Trainer being mentioned. Even discounting that, the chances of guessing both Megaman AND Villager out of six guesses was less then 10%. If you look at the actual probability of the situation, he likely knew something. Could it have been a guess? Yeah, I don't 100% believe it. Odds are against it though and I don't like to argue with math.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I'll say this again and this time I hope you listen. Unfinished characters are not the same as rejected/denied/dismissed characters. You're trying to equate Sakurai even mentioning Animal Crossing as "planned characters" and you're trying to equate unfinished characters (characters that we deemed acceptable but due to time/budget constraints did not make it in e.g. Bowser, Toon Link, ect) as denied characters (characters who were deemed not suitable for a fighting game e.g. Villager). You're making no sense. Let me give you a refresher on what Sakurai said:

Stop being obtuse. Villager was not a "planned character". Bowser was not dismissed as a playable character. You're using two completely different scenarios and trying to mislead people.

Sorry. I don't see in any way how he wasn't planned.

Let me show you what he also said about Villager;

"A lot of people understood Mega Man," he wrote, "but they kept asking me 'Why did you go for the villager and the Wii Fit trainer?', Neither of them are fighting characters, certainly. In fact, we had previously removed the villager from Super Smash Bros. Brawl in the planning stages because he wasn't suited for battle." http://www.polygon.com/2013/6/26/44...es-mega-man-smash-bros-s-other-new-characters Are we interpreting it differently? Fine. I don't much care. But I don't see it your way and you don't see it mine. Let's just agree to disagree on the interpretation, please.

I'll remind you again; I don't care how far they got into development. The fact he even looked at Villager officially is why some thought he could be chosen later on. This is the same reason people have thought Mach Rider or Balloon Fighter could someday make it into the fray, no matter how unlikely. I'm not misleading people in any way. Because I'm not referring to what type of plans they were. They were thought of as playable overall. For one or another they weren't in the final game. But each one of those four examples showed up in a later game. That's all there is to it. And what I said holds true, and I wasn't outright specific because there was no reason I should be when it doesn't fit what I said overall.

 

[Spazzy_D]

I don't know if this was brought up in this thread or not, but in the old leak thread someone brought up a very possible scenario.

The guy who tips Sal (if there is such a guy) could be a marketing or event guy, hence why he only know info hours before an event. If this is true, he would know some real info (Wii Fit Trainer, Megaman, Greninja, etc.) but only hours or a day or two before we do. The rest of his "predictions" in this case would be educated guesses or him purposely leading people on.

 

[ChikoLad]

You obviously feel that people on this site agree with the leak though, and you are stating the reason people believe in the leak is because they want to. I am just pointing out that the majority of the people on this site who believe the leak quickly follow it up with "but I don't like it" or "I really hope that's not ALL the new comers."

If Sal does not have any insider info, then he is just a Smash fan like us. If you look at Neogaf and Smashboards, you will find hundreds of posts in prediction threads relating to the E3 reveals. Someone did the math a while back, there were 0 instance of Wii Fit Trainer being mentioned. Even discounting that, the chances of guessing both Megaman AND Villager out of six guesses was less then 10%. If you look at the actual probability of the situation, he likely knew something. Could it have been a guess? Yeah, I don't 100% believe it. Odds are against it though and I don't like to argue with math.

...Yes, I feel a number of people on this site agree with the leak...because you know...a number of people on this very topic have outright said so (elsewhere too)?

And I didn't say that it was an absolute reason, I said it was one of them. It's a basic human observation. People will believe things that sounds nice to them, even if they don't realise it. Why do you think religion exists?

And I really hate when people say "the majority of people on this site said such and such a thing". Just because the majority of posts you saw mention they don't like it, doesn't mean it's the majority of opinions on the subject.

...And that math observation has no relevance to my point. And is completely flimsy. Just because something hasn't been predicted before, doesn't mean people can't innovate. Heck, I'll do it now - I predict Micheal Jackson will be in Smash 4!

I don't know if this was brought up in this thread or not, but in the old leak thread someone brought up a very possible scenario.

The guy who tips Sal (if there is such a guy) could be a marketing or event guy, hence why he only know info hours before an event. If this is true, he would know some real info (Wii Fit Trainer, Megaman, Greninja, etc.) but only hours or a day or two before we do. The rest of his "predictions" in this case would be educated guesses or him purposely leading people on.

The marketing guys and the event organisers are just as knowledgeable as us. For one thing, the only person who gave commentary on Smash 4 at the E3 show floor, was Sakurai. None of the PR guys for other games would need informing, as none of them spoke about Smash. Sakurai simply had a translator (who wouldn't need informing either).

 

[Aninymouse]

I don't know if this was brought up in this thread or not, but in the old leak thread someone brought up a very possible scenario.

The guy who tips Sal (if there is such a guy) could be a marketing or event guy, hence why he only know info hours before an event. If this is true, he would know some real info (Wii Fit Trainer, Megaman, Greninja, etc.) but only hours or a day or two before we do. The rest of his "predictions" in this case would be educated guesses or him purposely leading people on.

I like that even less, since if he's a marketing fella leaking info from event materials, there is no excuse for all the characters he got "wrong!" This would basically make him a liar and we could no longer trust him.

No, if there is any legitimacy to this rumored leak, it can't be from marketing materials.

 

[Spazzy_D]

I like that even less, since if he's a marketing fella leaking info from event materials, there is no excuse for all the characters he got "wrong!" This would basically make him a liar and we could no longer trust him.

No, if there is any legitimacy to this rumored leak, it can't be from marketing materials.

That's exactly the point though, in this case it would be someone just lying to us. He would only know about this a day or two in advance so that "misses" are just guesses for laughs. This hypothetical person knows he could get away with that since he would have some credibility from getting a few right.

 

[Miles Pierre]

Sorry. I don't see in any way how he wasn't planned.

Let me show you what he also said about Villager;

"A lot of people understood Mega Man," he wrote, "but they kept asking me 'Why did you go for the villager and the Wii Fit trainer?', Neither of them are fighting characters, certainly. In fact, we had previously removed the villager from Super Smash Bros. Brawl in the planning stages because he wasn't suited for battle." http://www.polygon.com/2013/6/26/44...es-mega-man-smash-bros-s-other-new-characters Are we interpreting it differently? Fine. I don't much care. But I don't see it your way and you don't see it mine. Let's just agree to disagree on the interpretation, please.

I'll remind you again; I don't care how far they got into development. The fact he even looked at Villager officially is why some thought he could be chosen later on. This is the same reason people have thought Mach Rider or Balloon Fighter could someday make it into the fray, no matter how unlikely. I'm not misleading people in any way. Because I'm not referring to what type of plans they were. They were thought of as playable overall. For one or another they weren't in the final game. But each one of those four examples showed up in a later game. That's all there is to it. And what I said holds true, and I wasn't outright specific because there was no reason I should be when it doesn't fit what I said overall.

I'm not conceding on my point because I just don't think you would change your mind. Seems like you have this idea and you're sticking to it no matter how far it's grasping. If what I said earlier about the difference between rejected and planned didn't tickle your logic center then nothing will.

With that said the other problem with your argument is just because he was once considered doesn't mean he was an easy guess or pick. I would begrudging agree to you that yes, once mentioned it is a possible guess, but due to Sakurai saying that the series was rejected as a source for fighters it was NOT probable or as easy a guess as people are making it out to be.

I have been around these boards, gamefaqs, neogaf and the gamespot boards (before the merger with gfaqs) for years and I would always suggest an animal crossing character because I really wanted one in. Every single time though I would get inundated with replies that said "No, animal crossing isn't getting in because Sakurai said so". Yes, it's anecdotal but from what I've seen and read from other posters I'm not alone. Every discussion about an animal crossing rep (usually centered around Tom Nook) was dropped because of that quote from Sakurai.

I know you want to act as if it was probable from your perspective -- and that may be true, you may be wiser than everyone else -- but it was not a probable, easy, or safe guess.

Edit: Used the wrong word. Fixed.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I'm not conceding on my point because I just don't think you would change your mind. Seems like you have this idea and you're sticking to it no matter how far it's grasping. If what I said earlier about the difference between rejected and planned didn't tickle your logic center then nothing will.

With that said the other problem with your argument is just because he was once considered doesn't mean he was an easy guess or pick. I would begrudging agree to you that yes, once mentioned it is a possible guess, but due to Sakurai saying that the series was rejected as a source for fighters it was NOT probable or as easy a guess as people are making it out to be.

I have been around these boards, gamefaqs, neogaf and the gamespot boards (before the merger with gfaqs) for years and I would always suggest an animal crossing character because I really wanted one in. Every single time though I would get inundated with replies that said "No, animal crossing isn't getting in because Sakurai said so". Yes, it's anecdotal but from what I've seen and read from other posters I'm not alone. Every discussion about an animal crossing rep (usually centered around Tom Nook) was dropped because of that quote from Sakurai.

I know you want to act as if it was probable from your perspective -- and that may be true, you may be wiser than everyone else -- but it was not a probable, easy, or safe guess.

Edit: Used the wrong word. Fixed.

You're not even listening to me at all. Don't argue against something I didn't say. I've made it clear what I meant by planned. That they were given time to look at, nothing more. The amount spent still doesn't matter, and never will. It's not relevant to my argument. You're arguing against a strawman, an argument you made yourself. I'm going to ask you stop and only stick to what I actually said. Let me make it clear for you; "A character in the planning stages that didn't make it into the final game made it into a later game." Some see it like that. That means anyone in that position is a potential guess for playable.(assuming we know they were planned in some way) That's clear as day. I am not making any other argument on the "planning" part whatsoever.

Also, not plausible? That's just a big laugh. Sakurai changes his mind on things. I was hoping he'd let guys like Villager in myself when I saw that. I didn't consider it likely, just not impossible. Because of that, seeing him coming in didn't surprise me at all. He's affirmed this before. Not just in practice, since he changed up the Brawl demo with gameplay changes to the final version(something expected, but it still counts. He changed his mind on how something worked. No matter how vague it is, it's still the same case), he let Sonic in well after the roster was originally decided(more proof of his mind changings), and now he did another change; Taking a scrapped idea and throwing it in. The details aren't nearly as relevant as the overall point. See my first paragraph for what my literal point is. Considering what all happened, scrapped ideas being thought of as plausible later on is completely reasonable as an idea.

 

[Yomi's Biggest Fan]

I've been thinking about this leak for awhile and I had hit me like a KO Punch. The briefness of certain things ("Pokemon from X/Y, Animal Crossing Guy, ect.) is done on purpose sop that no one other than the tipper would be suspicious. Some of the choices literally scream Sakurai with heavy hitters (like Palutena and Shulk) and random choices (like Mii and Chorus Men). There are at least a few m ore chances to see these results come into fruition like E3 and August's Nintendo Direct. Hell, I can see these guys leaking the last few, unleaked characters (most likely unlockable like @Super Smash Bros. Fan said) after the 3DS version's launch along with any of the remaining 6 that aren't at E3 or the August Direct. This is one guy we should keep our eyes on, especially if they are pulling off even more leaks soon.

 

[Miles Pierre]

You're not even listening to me at all. Don't argue against something I didn't say. I've made it clear what I meant by planned. That they were given time to look at, nothing more. The amount spent still doesn't matter, and never will. It's not relevant to my argument. You're arguing against a strawman, an argument you made yourself. I'm going to ask you stop and only stick to what I actually said. Let me make it clear for you; "A character in the planning stages that didn't make it into the final game made it into a later game." Some see it like that. That means anyone in that position is a potential guess for playable.(assuming we know they were planned in some way) That's clear as day. I am not making any other argument on the "planning" part whatsoever.

Also, not plausible? That's just a big laugh. Sakurai changes his mind on things. I was hoping he'd let guys like Villager in myself when I saw that. I didn't consider it likely, just not impossible. Because of that, seeing him coming in didn't surprise me at all. He's affirmed this before. Not just in practice, since he changed up the Brawl demo with gameplay changes to the final version(something expected, but it still counts. He changed his mind on how something worked. No matter how vague it is, it's still the same case), he let Sonic in well after the roster was originally decided(more proof of his mind changings), and now he did another change; Taking a scrapped idea and throwing it in. The details aren't nearly as relevant as the overall point. See my first paragraph for what my literal point is. Considering what all happened, scrapped ideas being thought of as plausible later on is completely reasonable as an idea.

But that's what you don't understand. I'm arguing against your definition of a planned character. Bowser was a planned character. Toon Link was a planned character. Villager was NOT a planned character. Just because they share being absent from certain games does not mean anything. Perhaps you should use considered instead.

Plan - decide on and arrange in advance.
Consider - think carefully about (something), typically before making a decision.

You see the difference? Planned means you've already made the decision. Example: Bowser is an acceptable fighter for SSB. Animal Crossing reps are not - therefore NOT planned to be in the game.

Consider is what happens before you've made your mind up. Animal Crossing reps and Bowser were both considered, but only Bowser was planned.

Edit: Sakurai does change his mind all the time. I agree. That doesn't make Villager an easy guess though. Sakurai changing his mind all the time is exactly why I kept championing for an animal crossing rep in Brawl.

 

[Deleted member]

If you are going to keep using this argument, please provide me with prove that a 6th Gen Pokémon blindsided most people. I was blindsided by Greninja being announced when he was (I was expecting Palutena), but not blindsided by the notion of a 6th Gen Pokémon, as there was a lot of reason to believe one would show up as a fighter. Anyone who expected "Brawl + Mewtwo" was doing so based purely on personal wants. That's not logic, that's desire. Anyone looking at rosters with some logic would easily predict a 6th Gen Pokémon.

People who care about characters in a Super Smash Bros. game are generally people who follow this game. I can tell you right now that most people did not expect a 6th gen Pokémon, let alone expected it over Mewtwo/Lucario. By 2013, most people were expecting Brawl + Mewtwo. When Smash Direct revealed that Gekkouga would be in (by that time, Lucario had been confirmed, so people had even higher expectations for a Brawl + Mewtwo scenario), most people were shocked at the fact that a Pokémon X & Y character actually made the cut, let alone Gekkouga.

Brawl + Mewtwo had definitely more to it than just personal wants backing it up, there were very good reasons to expect it. Everyone in this hypothetical scenario had a very good reason to return. Pikachu was the mascot of course, but the others made sense from being relevant.

Jigglypuff: Obtained a new type.
Pokémon Trainer: Starred in the Pokémon Origin special.
Lucario: Remained strongly relevant even after no longer being the mascot of the current gen; helped that he got Mega Evolution.
Mewtwo: Most prominent it has been ever since the 1st gen (obtained a new form, played a major role in Genesect's movie, etc).

Combined with Mewtwo being the most wanted character for this game (even above that of Mega Man, who got in because of popularity) and it made sense to not expect a 6th gen Pokémon from a logical viewpoint. We didn't need a 6th gen Pokémon to fulfill any quota, Brawl + Mewtwo could do it from a popularity and relevance viewpoint.

Whether or not fans expect something does not add any credibility to this leak. Fan expectations have no bearing on what is actually put in the game.

Very specific and 99.99% impossible to predict scenarios being correct have pointed towards the leak being correct before.

Take ChaosZero's leak pre-Brawl. He leaked various informations about characters; such as Lucario getting in over Mewtwo (not necessarily as a replacement, just higher priority), Wolf being in, etc. He also leaked a very specific piece of information; the Dragoon item where if you collect three parts, you would use them as a devastating weapon. This was something that no one had predicted before. Once the Dragoon showed up on the Smash Bros. Dojo website for Brawl and as exactly as ChaosZero described, it was obvious the leak was legitimate. People denied it furiously even after this piece of information was revealed true, but everything ChaosZero said was right. Now we see people doing similar things with Wii Fit Trainer, which was equally as difficult to predict (aka no one).

If by "fan expectations" you mean desire, then that is incorrect. Of course Sakurai cares about fan desire, he's not just going to ignore them entirely. This is the same man that added Mega Man, the second most wanted character for this game, because of fan demand. He did the same with Sonic during pre-Brawl as well. Sakurai has also made it clear that while not everyone from the previous games (including Melee and Brawl) will be returning, he does understand that fans do care about the characters that are in the game and will do his best to keep them in. While Sakurai is not going to grant every popular fan request under the sun, it doesn't mean that they have no bearings on the roster selection.

Here's why the "Pokémon from X/Y" throws a wrench in the works:

A real leak, is obviously going to be based on first hand information. It's going to be based off of what someone has seen of the game itself or it's design documents. Therefore, both fan speculation and marketing trends are not even slightly relevant to what is listed in the leak, assuming it is real.

So let's assume this leak is real.

The leak lists very specific characters. Palutena, Chorus Men, Shulk...but then it has "A Pokémon from X/Y".

Why the sudden vagueness, if the leak is real? If this guy had first hand information (i.e. his own experience), why didn't he just say "Greninja/Gekkouga", or anything that's more specific? There is literally no reason for him not to. After all, this is based off of first hand experience. If he played the game, he saw the character select screen, most likely. If he didn't play the game, the only other source of credible information is Sakurai's design documents. These would have a list of all planned characters. Greninja would be on this list.

You keep telling me that Greninja being a surprise to speculators helps the leak, but speculator opinions mean nothing here. Salromano's tipper is someone who claims to have first hand knowledge. He isn't conforming to fan speculation. He is saying what he saw.

Which is why the vagueness regarding a Pokémon newcomer makes this leak easy to disbelieve. I truly do feel this leak was in fact, just a good fabrication based on a mixture of fan favourites (Palutena, Shulk, Pac-Man, etc), marketing trends (hence he listed an X/Y newcomer), and just something odd for good measure (Chorus Men). Because if the tipper had first hand experience, then there is no excuse for vagueness as great as "Pokémon X/Y". And if the leak is indeed real, fan speculations have no bearing because as I keep saying, this guy has allegedly been on the inside of the dev team.

Furthermore, why has Rosalina never been mentioned? Surely he's seen her too, if he's been on the inside. Why would he neglect to leak her? Maybe he just didn't see her, but since there is plenty of reason to believe he didn't have any first hand experience at all, her absence from the leaks makes it even more doubtful.

Salromano's tipper likely obtained the information in the design document while the game was very early in development. It explains why Villager was "Animal Crossing Guy" instead of a Villager and why we have "Pokémon from X & Y" instead of Gekkouga. With "Pokémon X & Y", it may be that the Pokémon Company and Sakurai had added a spot for a "Pokémon X & Y" at the start yet had not decided on a Pokémon newcomer. Once X & Y came out, marketing research was quickly done to see who was the most popular Pokémon and Gekkouga turned out to be the best choice. Gekkouga was then added late in development, but because a spot for Pokémon X & Y was planned, this was made possible. Dinoman pointed out that a similar thing happened with Ike in that he was not planned from the start as a space for Fire Emblem had added from the start. However, Ike was eventually deemed the best choice and was added.

As for Rosalina, Salromano's tipper may not have been able to obtain all the information for planned characters in the design document. Not once was it claimed that these were the entire planned additions for this game, just that these characters were in. It could be that there are other characters that Salromano's tipper may not have been able to find out about; one of those being Rosalina.

Also, I never said that Pokémon X & Y made the leak more credible; my entire argument has been that it does not discredit the leak, which is not the same thing. I also fail to see how Salromano's tipper not conforming to fan speculations for leaks and seeing what he saw is a point against the leak.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

But that's what you don't understand. I'm arguing against your definition of a planned character. Bowser was a planned character. Toon Link was a planned character. Villager was NOT a planned character. Perhaps you should use considered instead.

Plan - decide on and arrange in advance.
Consider - think carefully about (something), typically before making a decision.

You see the difference? Planned means you've already made the decision. Example: Bowser is an acceptable fighter for SSB. Animal Crossing reps are not - therefore NOT planned to be in the game.

Consider is what happens before you've made your mind up. Animal Crossing reps and Bowser were both considered.

Considering that's still irrelevant to what I said, I pretty much don't care.

It's a word. Big deal. I made it clear what I meant. Semantics are a pointless discussion here. Now please let it go.

 

[Deleted member]

Villager was never in the planning stages.
He was rejected in the pre-production stage.


Anyone who says Villager was a sure bet is deluding themselves with hindsight bias.

 

[YT123]

A very unlikely coincidence is just that - a very unlikely coincidence. And in this case, the predicted characters are extremely safe. So getting some of these guys right isn't actually unlikely.

I'm starting to think that according to you, every character prediction is extremely safe (Chorus Men, Wii Fit Trainer & Villager aren't safe predictions at all). I myself don't think that the inclusion of 'safe' characters in a leak is a reason to discredit it, as the game is bound to have at least a few safe characters on the roster.

 

[Miles Pierre]

Villager was never in the planning stages.
He was rejected in the pre-production stage.

exactly my point.

Considering that's still irrelevant to what I said, I pretty much don't care.

It's a word. Big deal. I made it clear what I meant. Semantics are a pointless discussion here. Now please let it go.

It's dishonest at worst and naive at best to say Villager was a planned character. Words are important because they express an idea. If you use the wrong words you're expressing the wrong idea.

If I tell people that Rayman was planned to be in Brawl I'm lying. Maybe not purposefully but I'm still spreading false information. There are no semantics. If I tell people that Rayman was considered for Brawl then I'm telling the truth. Your personal definition of planned is probably at odds with 90 percent of the population and certainly at odds with a dictionary. So while it may be semantics to you it's not to other people like me and @GoldenYuiitusin.

 

[Morbi]

Villager was never in the planning stages.
He was rejected in the pre-production stage.

Planning is a pre-production stage, is it not? I mean, by definition.

 

[Miles Pierre]

Planning is a pre-production stage, is it not? I mean, by definition.

But that's not a character. Just because they are in the planning process for the entire game doesn't mean a specific character was planned for the game (when they were so clearly dismissed).

Planning process for a game does not equal planned character for a game.

 

[Morbi]

But that's not a character. Just because they are in the planning process for the entire game doesn't mean a specific character was planned for the game (when they were so clearly dismissed).

Planning process for a game does not equal planned character for a game.

I see what you are saying; but objectively, he was planned. That is the only material aspect of the argument.

 

[ChikoLad]

An Animal Crossing character is a perfectly safe guess. Just because they couldn't come up with a moveset for one game, doesn't mean it effects the next. As soon as Brawl came out, the grounds for predictions reset. A character was confirmed to not work out last time? Well, that's a character they would easily consider again. Especially after a shift in perspective. It doesn't rule them out at all, it just makes them a more likely candidate. After all, Animal Crossing in particular is a very popular series now. Eyes are perpetually on it. Of course it's feasible the developers had this mindset.

People who care about characters in a Super Smash Bros. game are generally people who follow this game. I can tell you right now that most people did not expect a 6th gen Pokémon, let alone expected it over Mewtwo/Lucario. By 2013, most people were expecting Brawl + Mewtwo. When Smash Direct revealed that Gekkouga would be in (by that time, Lucario had been confirmed, so people had even higher expectations for a Brawl + Mewtwo scenario), most people were shocked at the fact that a Pokémon X & Y character actually made the cut, let alone Gekkouga.

Brawl + Mewtwo had definitely more to it than just personal wants backing it up, there were very good reasons to expect it. Everyone in this hypothetical scenario had a very good reason to return. Pikachu was the mascot of course, but the others made sense from being relevant.

Jigglypuff: Obtained a new type.
Pokémon Trainer: Starred in the Pokémon Origin special.
Lucario: Remained strongly relevant even after no longer being the mascot of the current gen; helped that he got Mega Evolution.
Mewtwo: Most prominent it has been ever since the 1st gen (obtained a new form, played a major role in Genesect's movie, etc).

Combined with Mewtwo being the most wanted character for this game (even above that of Mega Man, who got in because of popularity) and it made sense to not expect a 6th gen Pokémon from a logical viewpoint. We didn't need a 6th gen Pokémon to fulfill any quota, Brawl + Mewtwo could do it from a popularity and relevance viewpoint.

Very specific and 99.99% impossible to predict scenarios being correct have pointed towards the leak being correct before.

Take ChaosZero's leak pre-Brawl. He leaked various informations about characters; such as Lucario getting in over Mewtwo (not necessarily as a replacement, just higher priority), Wolf being in, etc. He also leaked a very specific piece of information; the Dragoon item where if you collect three parts, you would use them as a devastating weapon. This was something that no one had predicted before. Once the Dragoon showed up on the Smash Bros. Dojo website for Brawl and as exactly as ChaosZero described, it was obvious the leak was legitimate. People denied it furiously even after this piece of information was revealed true, but everything ChaosZero said was right. Now we see people doing similar things with Wii Fit Trainer, which was equally as difficult to predict (aka no one).

If by "fan expectations" you mean desire, then that is incorrect. Of course Sakurai cares about fan desire, he's not just going to ignore them entirely. This is the same man that added Mega Man, the second most wanted character for this game, because of fan demand. He did the same with Sonic during pre-Brawl as well. Sakurai has also made it clear that while not everyone from the previous games (including Melee and Brawl) will be returning, he does understand that fans do care about the characters that are in the game and will do his best to keep them in. While Sakurai is not going to grant every popular fan request under the sun, it doesn't mean that they have no bearings on the roster selection.

Salromano's tipper likely obtained the information in the design document while the game was very early in development. It explains why Villager was "Animal Crossing Guy" instead of a Villager and why we have "Pokémon from X & Y" instead of Gekkouga. With "Pokémon X & Y", it may be that the Pokémon Company and Sakurai had added a spot for a "Pokémon X & Y" at the start yet had not decided on a Pokémon newcomer. Once X & Y came out, marketing research was quickly done to see who was the most popular Pokémon and Gekkouga turned out to be the best choice. Gekkouga was then added late in development, but because a spot for Pokémon X & Y was planned, this was made possible. Dinoman pointed out that a similar thing happened with Ike in that he was not planned from the start as a space for Fire Emblem had added from the start. However, Ike was eventually deemed the best choice and was added.

As for Rosalina, Salromano's tipper may not have been able to obtain all the information for planned characters in the design document. Not once was it claimed that these were the entire planned additions for this game, just that these characters were in. It could be that there are other characters that Salromano's tipper may not have been able to find out about; one of those being Rosalina.

Also, I never said that Pokémon X & Y made the leak more credible; my entire argument has been that it does not discredit the leak, which is not the same thing. I also fail to see how Salromano's tipper not conforming to fan speculations for leaks and seeing what he saw is a point against the leak.

The difference between my arguments and yours is that your arguments are "maybes", focusing on the fan speculation, and trying to come up with scenarios to justify the discrepancies (and you haven't even succeeded in that, as my questions remain unanswered) in the origins of the leak.

I have already eliminated the possibility of this being a legitimate leak from what we know. Too many things just don't, and can't add up. Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be true. In this case, the possibility of this being a real leak isn't there. So the only other possibility is that it's a well-constructed fabrication.

I also fail to see how Salromano's tipper not conforming to fan speculations for leaks and seeing what he saw is a point against the leak.

You were the one who said that the fact this leak matches people's definition of a likely roster gives the leak credit. I didn't say this, and I disagreed from the beginning. I'm saying that whether or not fans thought Villager was likely, or "Brawl+Mewtwo" was likely, or a Pokémon from X & Y was likely - it's all irrelevant. This leak is constructed from what someone claims to have seen. If that claim were true, we shouldn't have to dance around whether or not certain characters are likely. This person would simply have more concrete information and more concrete proof of what they saw. And they don't. Their story makes little sense.

I'm starting to think that according to you, every character prediction is extremely safe (Chorus Men, Wii Fit Trainer & Villager aren't safe predictions at all). I myself don't think that the inclusion of 'safe' characters in a leak is a reason to discredit it, as the game is bound to have at least a few safe characters on the roster.

At what point did I say the safe choices were my main reason to discredit it? It's merely extra toppings on the cake.

The reason I can't get behind this leak is that it's claimed origin story makes no sense, and certain discrepancies that SHOULD NOT be there on a real leak, are present here.

Also, planning is pre-production. Saying this as a games designer training in college. As long as you had the idea of implementing something into your game, it's a planned element. Even if you never bring those elements to the production stages.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Planning is a pre-production stage, is it not? I mean, by definition.

Yes. But people are more hung up over a word than the point. I used the wrong word. Whoops(not like it matters that much). I don't know why they're still acting like it is relevant when my argument is unchanged in the end. I made sure to reword my point since the semantics is confusing people.It's down below.

"Characters who were considered for a past game were brought in for a later game." Anybody we know of in that case, that were looked at, always had a chance to be playable later on, as it's happened before. It's plausible somebody thought Sakurai could change their mind and add Villager(I'm one of those people, fyi). Unlikely, but not impossible.

Also, Miles, Golden, please drop the semantics argument. Seriously. You know what is being talked about and what is meant.

 

[Deleted member]

Planning is a pre-production stage, is it not? I mean, by definition.

I'm not going to argue definition over something again.

Since what I am saying doesn't seem to be clear:

When I refer to "planning stages", I'm referring to content that is being planned on.
When I refer to "pre-production stage", I'm referring to before plans are set; mere brainstorming.

Sakurai thought about Villager and about a style he could use in the brainstorming period, but decided against it and Villager never made it to the planned content period.

An Animal Crossing character is a perfectly safe guess. Just because they couldn't come up with a moveset for one game, doesn't mean it effects the next. As soon as Brawl came out, the grounds for predictions reset. A character was confirmed to not work out last time? Well, that's a character they would easily consider again. Especially after a shift in perspective. It doesn't rule them out at all, it just makes them a more likely candidate. After all, Animal Crossing in particular is a very popular series now. Eyes are perpetually on it. Of course it's feasible the developers had this mindset.

Except that, moveset wasn't the issue. That's where your whole point crumbles apart.
The issue was that Sakurai felt that Villager didn't fit the violent atmosphere of Smash, a point Sakurai made pretty damn clear before and after Brawl's release.

To insist that Villager was a safe guess is insisting Sakurai pulling a full 180 was an inevitability. Which is the thought process of a madman.