The Official Thread For the Sal Romano/Gematsu Leak

[ChikoLad]

Never came true yet.

No, he said six newcomers would be revealed at E3 2013. Only three were. E3 2013 is not happening twice.

 

[Deleted member]

The difference between my arguments and yours is that your arguments are "maybes", focusing on the fan speculation, and trying to come up with scenarios to justify the discrepancies (and you haven't even succeeded in that, as my questions remain unanswered) in the origins of the leak.

I have already eliminated the possibility of this being a legitimate leak from what we know. Too many things just don't, and can't add up. Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be true. In this case, the possibility of this being a real leak isn't there. So the only other possibility is that it's a well-constructed fabrication.

I have already justified the arguments you brought up against with the Pokémon X & Y argument. I have explained that Brawl + Mewtwo could accomplish everything that the Pokémon Company would want to achieve with characters and that a 6th gen Pokémon was not necessary. Thus, Gekkouga's inclusion came as a shock to the vast majority of the fan base. What I have also shown was that very specific predictions that no one else would have guessed have happened in pre-Brawl after being leaked and that we're facing a similar situation with Wii Fit Trainer here. Finally, you asked two things:

- Why the sudden vagueness of "Pokemon from X & Y" after Shulk, Palutena, Chrom and Chorus Men?
- Why Rosalina was never mentioned?

With the first one, I explained that the design document was very likely obtained from very early in development; which explains Pokémon X & Y instead of Gekkouga and Animal Crossing Guy instead of Villager. With the second, I also explained that while the tipper does know information about newcomers, he is not omniscient and as such, he does not have access to all information in regards to newcomers. If there are others I did not address, I will get to them if I haven't already.

Also, you cannot eliminate the possibility of this leak being real. Nothing that you have posted has proven that this leak is a well-fabricated fake and so far, there is no real way to prove it. Until we see a character disconfirmation from the leak, we cannot prove that this leak is fake and should be dismissed. Even incorrect aspects of the leak can be explained by Salromano's tipper receiving outdated information. It could certainly be a fake, but it can also be real.

You were the one who said that the fact this leak matches people's definition of a likely roster gives the leak credit. I didn't say this, and I disagreed from the beginning. I'm saying that whether or not fans thought Villager was likely, or "Brawl+Mewtwo" was likely, or a Pokémon from X & Y was likely - it's all irrelevant. This leak is constructed from what someone claims to have seen. If that claim were true, we shouldn't have to dance around whether or not certain characters are likely. This person would simply have more concrete information and more concrete proof of what they saw. And they don't. Their story makes little sense.

Show me where I ever said this. I have said the entire time that this leak has contradicted the expectations people had with Pokémon as well as characters like Wii Fit Trainer. Not once did I argue that this leak met people's expectations.

You're are not understanding the concept, and, as a result, you are guilty of the bias.

To make appropriate conclusions, you have the weight the evidence. First, consider the fact that the original rumor said that 6 characters would be shown at E3. Very specific. Well, only 3 of the 6 characters were shown. This is very key because, if we assume it is real, then the mole told him that there would be 6 characters and they would appear at E3. But we know that didn't happen. So the information was wrong. This suggest the rumor is not real. This is simple logic. Guy says he has inside info. Said info was wrong, so a reasonable conclusion is he didn't have inside information. Now, there is more damning evidence than just this; however, this is the most key as this is something where he is specifically wrong. The rumor being a lucky guess also better explains why he didn't have a source before WFT was shown (there wasn't one) and "Pokemon from X/Y" (there is no information. He's guessing). This is far better than the alternative which is what you suggest. You, and others, have to make multiple scenarios to explain the same thing. The characters weren't shown at E3 because the dates were moved. He didn't announce information because he didn't know the credibility of the source, and he didn't know the Pokemon because his information is outdated. With each happening, you have to add to the story and make more scenarios in order to make it make sense. Thus, it would be more rational to believe he got a lucky guess because it explains everything else. It's Occam's Razor:"when you have two competing theories that make exactly the same predictions, the simpler one is the better"

Now we're here, and the same thing comes up. "The leak must be true because he got Wii Fit Trainer." Suddenly, all other information is not taken and weighted to make a conclusion, but all other information is either disregarded or rationalized to fit the conclusion. This, by definition, is what happens with confirmation bias and you're doing it right now. You are ignoring all other evidence or explaining it (like you did in your last sentence). Now, what I did above what weight the evidence. I took the two theories and pit them against each other. What I showed is that the idea that "He got a lucky guess" better explains the situation than the alternative. Furthermore, I only have to explain one instance rather than 3. You, on the other hand, saw Wii Fit Trainer and though that he MUST know something. An interesting case. On 4chan, literally a minute before the direct, a poster said which Pokemon did you all want in the most. "Pic related for me." Of course, it was a picture of Greninja.. Sure enough, Greninja was shown less than a hour later. Note that when it came to guessing characters, NO ONE said Grejinja. Much like Wii Fit Trainer, a lot of people never expected him, and someone managed to get it right. Just because someone got it right doesn't mean that they had insider knowledge. The rumor is simply the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy. Sal shot at the barn. When he noticed that three of his six characters were right, he drew a target and said he has inside information. The bullets clustered and he went with it.

The end is that, first, you have to weight the evidence. You and most everyone else is looking threw their lens. They couldn't believe WFT was possible. So when someone says it, gets it right, and immediately says he had information all along, well then by golly he must know something. Could there be another explanation, especially when you have a lot of situations pop up that throw water on this fire? To close, doesn't this:

Look kind of like this:

Your comparison in regards to the 4chan picture and Salromano's leak is flawed. The 4chan picture had the OP asking what they wanted to see in regards to a new Pokémon. Salromano on the other hand, posted the information the day before the Direct in regards to predictions. On top of this, the 4chan user has no track record of leaking information whereas Salromano has a reputation for being a legitimate leaker.

Also...

You've committed Occam Razor when you tried to explain multiple scenario for why you feel the information isn't legitimate. For example, when you explained why the Wii Fit Trainer doesn't mean anything towards the leak legitimacy, you've came up with multiple scenario to explain your point about Wii Fit Trainer being a lucky guess. There wasn't a source for Wii Fit Trainer before her confirmation; she made sense because her game sold well.

The first scenario ignores that similar things has happened with the ChaosZero leak pre-Brawl. He leaked the Dragoon as an item and it was shown on the DOJO. The game then got released and the rest of the information turned out legitimate. ChaosZero did not have a source (or more accurately, could not prove his source) and in fact, said it was a rumor. As for the second scenario, it reeks of hindsight bias. It makes sense because you rationalzed it after the fact that Wii Fit Trainer was in the game, not before. No one rationalized Wii Fit Trainer as a potential prospect before her confirmation. I, on the other hand, only have to explain one thing; because no one though Wii Fit Trainer would be in (she only got a GameFAQs thread that was a joke), it points towards the leak being more true.

You're also as guilty of confirmation bias as much, if not even more than I have been with this leak. Your entire campaign against this leak has been exactly what confirmation bias is. People say that Wii Fit Trainer has never been brought up seriously as a possible characters, you attempt to rationalize this by bringing up sales charts and "he has no source", failing to note that there is no evidence Sakurai factors in sales for character inclusion and that ChaosZero also did not have a source he could prove. Pac-Man is on the leak and you committed confirmation bias by saying "Sakurai say Namco gets no special treatment" and rationalized to your own bias by saying "Pac-Man isn't getting in, so the leak is fake". This of course, fails to recognize that Sakurai did not rule out a Namco character, just said that Namco wasn't getting special treatment. Pokémon X and Y is brought up and you rationalize this as "it's vague so it's fake", ignoring that there has been precedence for spots planned for an unspecific character and that the character was added later on (see Ike) when Sakurai decided on a character and as such, it is likely that the information salromano's tipper got was outdated.

If you're going to accuse people who believe this leak of confirmation bias and other fallacies, note that the other side has as bad, if not even worse. And you, yourself, have been among the worst offenders.

 

[UnicornDemon]

1. He didn't say "a Pokemon from X and Y." He said "Pokemon from X and Y." Since Pokemon can be interpreted as singular or plural, this leaves the possibility of a Pokemon Trainer using X/Y Pokemon as opposed to an individual Pokemon. Not an outlandish possibility at all.

2. He did not say "A new Pokemon introduced in Generation VI." He said "Pokemon from X and Y." Mewtwo appears in Pokemon X and Y. You can catch it in a cave post-game. Mewtwo does not appear in any other games apart from Generation 1 iterations. Same goes for all three Kanto starters which are given to you by the professor in X/Y. Also, the mega evolutions for Charizard and Mewtwo debut in X and Y.

Perhaps Sal Romano's tipper predicted that Mewtwo would get into the game, with his mega-evolution making some appearance, as did many of us. However, acknowledging that he may be wrong, he decided to cast a wider net, proclaiming that Pokemon from X/Y would appear instead. Thus, should he be wrong about Mewtwo, his list still has a chance of credibility should another Kalos Pokemon or perhaps a Kalos Pokemon trainer take its place.

Such vagueness. Much possible interpretations. Wow.

 

[Pazzo.]

Seriously, are we really expecting the Rhythm Heaven Rep...?

 

[Zero Suit Wario]

Seriously, are we really expecting the Rhythm Heaven Rep...?

I don't want to, but looking at WFT, it seems like someone Sakurai might pick.

Although it's a great series I'd say it doesn't deserve much more than an assist trophy

 

[Miles Pierre]

People who think it's fake never respond to the Mods' arguments.

 

[Pazzo.]

I don't want to, but looking at WFT, it seems like someone Sakurai might pick.

Although it's a great series I'd say it doesn't deserve much more than an assist trophy

Agreed. I can't stop looking at your avi...

 

[BKupa666]

I've said it before in the trash heap that was the old leak thread, but considering my explanation probably got lost amid the trash, I'll repeat it again.

Rosalina being absent from both of Sal's leaks is superficially strange, but perfectly understandable upon a closer look. Initially, Sal released a batch of six newcomers (Villager/WFT/Mega Man/Pacman/Little Mac/Mii), which, based on his second batch, we know wasn't the entire newcomer roster (his first batch didn't have Palutena/Chrom/Shulk/Pokemon/Chorus Men either). His second batch also didn't include any characters who had been confirmed prior to that point (the E3 three, Rosalina, and Mac). She happened to be caught in an awkward middle ground between his two leaks, based on the fact that the characters aren't being revealed in order of him leaking them (despite the token genius detractor or two claiming that the leak is 100% false because Rosalina was confirmed before Mac).

In a nutshell, there may be more newcomers or this may be it, but Rosalina isn't evidence one way or the other.

 

[ChikoLad]

I have already justified the arguments you brought up against with the Pokémon X & Y argument. I have explained that Brawl + Mewtwo could accomplish everything that the Pokémon Company would want to achieve with characters and that a 6th gen Pokémon was not necessary. Thus, Gekkouga's inclusion came as a shock to the vast majority of the fan base. What I have also shown was that very specific predictions that no one else would have guessed have happened in pre-Brawl after being leaked and that we're facing a similar situation with Wii Fit Trainer here. Finally, you asked two things:

- Why the sudden vagueness of "Pokemon from X & Y" after Shulk, Palutena, Chrom and Chorus Men?
- Why Rosalina was never mentioned?

With the first one, I explained that the design document was very likely obtained from very early in development; which explains Pokémon X & Y instead of Gekkouga and Animal Crossing Guy instead of Villager. With the second, I also explained that while the tipper does know information about newcomers, he is not omniscient and as such, he does not have access to all information in regards to newcomers. If there are others I did not address, I will get to them if I haven't already.

Also, you cannot eliminate the possibility of this leak being real. Nothing that you have posted has proven that this leak is a well-fabricated fake and so far, there is no real way to prove it. Until we see a character disconfirmation from the leak, we cannot prove that this leak is fake and should be dismissed. Even incorrect aspects of the leak can be explained by Salromano's tipper receiving outdated information. It could certainly be a fake, but it can also be real.

Show me where I ever said this. I have said the entire time that this leak has contradicted the expectations people had with Pokémon as well as characters like Wii Fit Trainer. Not once did I argue that this leak met people's expectations.
Your comparison in regards to the 4chan picture and Salromano's leak is flawed. The 4chan picture had the OP asking what they wanted to see in regards to a new Pokémon. Salromano on the other hand, posted the information the day before the Direct in regards to predictions. On top of this, the 4chan user has no track record of leaking information whereas Salromano has a reputation for being a legitimate leaker.

Also...

You've committed Occam Razor when you tried to explain multiple scenario for why you feel the information isn't legitimate. For example, when you explained why the Wii Fit Trainer doesn't mean anything towards the leak legitimacy, you've came up with multiple scenario to explain your point about Wii Fit Trainer being a lucky guess. There wasn't a source for Wii Fit Trainer before her confirmation; she made sense because her game sold well.

The first scenario ignores that similar things has happened with the ChaosZero leak pre-Brawl. He leaked the Dragoon as an item and it was shown on the DOJO. The game then got released and the rest of the information turned out legitimate. ChaosZero did not have a source and in fact, said it was a rumor. As for the second scenario, it reeks of hindsight bias. It makes sense because you rationalzed it after the fact that Wii Fit Trainer was in the game, not before. No one rationalized Wii Fit Trainer as a potential prospect before her confirmation. I, on the other hand, only have to explain one thing; because no one though Wii Fit Trainer would be in (she only got a GameFAQs thread that was a joke), it points towards the leak being more true.

You're also as guilty of confirmation bias as much, if not even more than I have been with this leak. Your entire campaign against this leak has been exactly what confirmation bias is. People say that Wii Fit Trainer has never been brought up seriously as a possible characters, you attempt to rationalize this by bringing up sales charts and "he has no source", failing to note that there is no evidence Sakurai factors in sales for character inclusion and that ChaosZero also did not have a source. Pac-Man is on the leak and you committed confirmation bias by saying "Sakurai say Namco gets no special treatment" and rationalized to your own bias by saying "Pac-Man isn't getting in, so the leak is fake". This of course, fails to recognize that Sakurai did not rule out a Namco character, just said that Namco wasn't getting special treatment. Pokémon X and Y is brought up and you rationalize this as "it's vague so it's fake", ignoring that there has been precedence for spots planned for an unspecific character and that the character was added later on (see Ike) when Sakurai decided on a character and as such, it is likely that the information salromano's tipper got was outdated.

If you're going to accuse people who believe this leak of confirmation bias and other fallacies, note that the other side has as bad, if not even worse. And you, yourself, have been among the worst offenders.

What weed do you smoke? Because it must sweep you right out of reality.

"Sakurai say Namco gets no special treatment" and rationalized to your own bias by saying "Pac-Man isn't getting in, so the leak is fake".

I challenge you to quote where I said this. Because I have not mentioned Namco or Pac-Man once in this topic. This alone is all I need to show you have not been following a word of my posts.

The rest of this post is just the same waffle SmashChu, several others, and I had already shot down. None of you have addressed these points. Ya'll just keep dancing around "BUT THIS CHARACTER WAS LIKELY/UNLIKELY", or "ITS LIKELY SALROMANO JUST HAD OUTDATED INFORMATION, CUT HIM SOME SLACK". No, I will not cut him slack. Stop making excuses for him. Notice how he hasn't been doing that? He's just remained silent, not even attempting to prove anything to us? Like I said pages ago - the more you look at this, the more nonsensical it is, and the less reason you have to believe it. This leak makes no sense whatsoever. If it did, you wouldn't need to make excuses, like you are. You wouldn't have to provide me with "likely scenarios" and "maybes". You'd have definitive evidence to back up your claim. I've given you the parts of this leak that are definitely impossible. I've explained why. Nobody has addressed these. So if people are going to keep ignoring those points and make excuses, then I am not wasting my time here anymore.

And please stop comparing to the ChaosZero leak. That was worth the time of day because it had no mistakes or discrepancies. This does. And you know that. Right now, it's just as a real a hypothetical leak I decide to make in a minute from now.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

What weed do you smoke? Because it must sweep you right out of reality.



I challenge you to quote where I said this. Because I have not mentioned Namco or Pac-Man once in this topic. This alone is all I need to show you have not been following a word of my posts.

The rest of this post is just the same waffle SmashChu, several others, and I had already shot down. None of you have addressed these points. Ya'll just keep dancing around "BUT THIS CHARACTER WAS LIKELY/UNLIKELY", or "ITS LIKELY SALROMANO JUST HAD OUTDATED INFORMATION, CUT HIM SOME SLACK". No, I will not cut him slack. Stop making excuses for him. Notice how he hasn't been doing that? He's just remained silent, not even attempting to prove anything to us? Like I said pages ago - the more you look at this, the more nonsensical it is, and the less reason you have to believe it. This leak makes no sense whatsoever. If it did, you wouldn't need to make excuses, like you are. You wouldn't have to provide me with "likely scenarios" and "maybes". You'd have definitive evidence to back up your claim. I've given you the parts of this leak that are definitely impossible. I've explained why. Nobody has addressed these. So if people are going to keep ignoring those points and make excuses, then I am not wasting my time here anymore.

And please stop comparing to the ChaosZero leak. That was worth the time of day because it had no mistakes or discrepancies. This does. And you know that. Right now, it's just as a real a hypothetical leak I decide to make in a minute from now.

First, he wasn't talking to you when he mentioned Pac-Man.

Second, you can't just say something along the lines of "He's making a guess, therefore the leak is fake". That makes zero sense. He came to us the day of the leak coming out, and has said nothing since. That's probably because there hasn't been anymore information to give out since that point.

If we're wrong for making assumptions, then what is it that the detractors are doing? Making assumptions. Sal Romano has credibility, so saying he made it all up is a bit of a stretch.

There is literally not a single thing that can debunk this leak right now. I've explained why most things detractors have problems with do not on their own disprove this leak.

 

[Deleted member]

Just because he brainstormed rough ideas for things he could have used, doesn't mean he didn't struggle to come up with a moveset. Many fan speculators have this trouble themselves. I think Professor Layton could use the slot machine gun and a rapier as tools for fighting in Smash. Yet I struggle to come up with an actual move set. That was basically Sakurai's dilemma. Again, your logic doesn't work because of R.O.B and Mr.Game and Watch.

And with that, I am done.

Two words: Captain Falcon.
There is a legitmate example where struggling to make a moveset is plausible. You may argue "well, he's a bounty hunter, so he can be seen as a fighter", but that's not enough. There's practically nothing from the source material to be used aside from a laser pistol that he carries and used once in a comic packaged with the original F-Zero.
Yet Sakurai made up a Kamen Rider-esque style with relative ease. Then there's the Ice Climbers, who only have their Forward Smash directly ripped from their game. Everything else was made up to make them work.
So once again, moveset wasn't the issue.


And you really think my logic doesn't work because of R.O.B. and G&W, when there's boxing, vermin killing (with mallets), lion bashing (with chairs), and other violent aspects within the Game & Watch franchise, and R.O.B. is just as capable of putting the hurt on other racers in Mario Kart DS as the rest of the cast?

There is literally not a single thing that can debunk this leak right now.

I know you probably mean literally right now, but there is a way it can be debunked; if any of the mentioned characters are confirmed to be an Assist or otherwise not playable.
Just got to wait and see what happens. The bull**** sonicbrawler and SmashChu drivel right now is just that; bull****.

The only two legitimate points against the leak so far are
a. Little Mac, Pac-Man, and Miis did not show up at E3 2013.
b. Greninja wasn't mentioned by name; all that was said was "Pokémon from X/Y", which is vague.

Both of which have equally legitimate counterpoints.

 

[ChikoLad]

First, he wasn't talking to you when he mentioned Pac-Man.

My apologies on the Pac-Man thing. I was confused by the alert I got about being quoted, and that was literally the first thing that popped up.

But I challenge YOU to quote where I said:

"He's making a guess, therefore the leak is fake".

Because my argument was comprised of FAR more than that.

 

[KenboCalrissian]

I think it's a fallacy to think the leak should have/will come true exactly as stated. Nothing is ever set in stone, and depending on where the source lies in the development cycle, that can lead to more or less variation in the actual reveal. Most importantly, it's ultimately marketing's decision, and as anybody who works in an office knows development of an end product must be fluid and open to change in order for it to be successful. Trends change, requirements change, demands change - it's all part of the game.

3 characters revealed instead of 6? Change of plans in marketing.
Little Mac was late? Marketing, again.
'Pokemon from X/Y?' I think a credible argument of uncertainty at design time has been given.
Rosalina is missing? Eh... I still question this one, even after seeing the arguments for it. They don't quite fit.
Ridley was not mentioned after the tease in direct? This is one of my biggest doubts, but I doubt my own judgment that he's in the game equally as much, if not more. However, I will go so far as to say the leak is NOT valid if we DO see Ridley at E3. Ridley is too big to be missed.

All told, if you're thinking in terms of black and white, you'll be wrong either way. Things may have been true at the time of the leak that were later changed - timing is the best example of that so far, but that's perfectly reasonable. A leak doesn't have to be 100% accurate in order to be real, it could be 80% and still be OK. There's room for detractors and supporters to coexist! If it were 100% accurate, I'd have to wonder if salromano wasn't actually Sakurai himself trolling the forums.

 

[ChikoLad]

I think it's a fallacy to think the leak should have/will come true exactly as stated. Nothing is ever set in stone, and depending on where the source lies in the development cycle, that can lead to more or less variation in the actual reveal. Most importantly, it's ultimately marketing's decision, and as anybody who works in an office knows development of an end product must be fluid and open to change in order for it to be successful. Trends change, requirements change, demands change - it's all part of the game.

3 characters revealed instead of 6? Change of plans in marketing.
Little Mac was late? Marketing, again.
'Pokemon from X/Y?' I think a credible argument of uncertainty at design time has been given.
Rosalina is missing? Eh... I still question this one, even after seeing the arguments for it. They don't quite fit.
Ridley was not mentioned after the tease in direct? This is one of my biggest doubts, but I doubt my own judgment that he's in the game equally as much, if not more. However, I will go so far as to say the leak is NOT valid if we DO see Ridley at E3. This is too huge to be missed.

All told, if you're thinking in terms of black and white, you'll be wrong either way. Things may have been true at the time of the leak that were later changed - timing is the best example of that so far, but that's perfectly reasonable. A leak doesn't have to be 100% accurate in order to be real, it could be 80% and still be OK. There's room for detractors and supporters to coexist! If it were 100% accurate, I'd have to wonder if salromano wasn't actually Sakurai himself trolling the forums.

"Like I said pages ago - the more you look at this, the more nonsensical it is, and the less reason you have to believe it. This leak makes no sense whatsoever. If it did, you wouldn't need to make excuses, like you are. You wouldn't have to provide me with "likely scenarios" and "maybes". You'd have definitive evidence to back up your claim. I've given you the parts of this leak that are definitely impossible. I've explained why. Nobody has addressed these."

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

My apologies on the Pac-Man thing. I was confused by the alert I got about being quoted, and that was literally the first thing that popped up.

But I challenge YOU to quote where I said:



Because my argument was comprised of FAR more than that.

I didn't say that you directly said that. It's a generalized point that many detractors have been making, and it's a strawman if I've ever seen one.

The mere concept that somebody would make a lucky guess of Wii Fit Trainer is so astronomically small that it's not worth considering.

We DO have facts about this leak. Sal came here soon after the leak got here, and explained his side of it. He has credibility that lends itself to the idea that he's an honest guy. It seems obvious to me that the guy isn't making this up. The guy leaking it might be, but that doesn't make Sal the bad guy.

Fact is, the Pokemon X/Y leak that was inaccurate about one or two things was still almost completely correct. So far, the leak in question has been wrong on ONE thing, and that was the E3 reveals (which he was still 50% on, which was a 50% with arguably the most questionable choices aside from Mega Man). One mistake doesn't make it fake.

At least that is the majority of what I'm seeing get argued against this leak in particular. He was wrong about ONE thing. Not to mention, Sal has said he received that email months before hand, and as with any business, plans to reveal content can be changed depending on what needs to be dealt with. It's a perfectly plausible explanation. Plans were changed. It happens all the time.

I'm not going to be the type of person who is like, "ZOMG THIS IS TOTES REAL" because there is always the chance it isn't, no matter how convincing it is. But there is certainly a possibility that it's real, and I don't think it should be ignored.

We don't have enough information to put all the pieces together, hence why it's not possible at this point to not come up with scenarios. So just because we have to speculate on it doesn't make it any less plausible. That is the problem I have with the detractors. Nobody has the answers, so it's not fake by any stretch, nor is it undeniably real.

 

[Deleted member]

When I have the time, I'm going to break down the X/Y Leak that is quite comparable to this, and hopefully that will dispel some of the flawed arguments used against this one.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

"Like I said pages ago - the more you look at this, the more nonsensical it is, and the less reason you have to believe it. This leak makes no sense whatsoever. If it did, you wouldn't need to make excuses, like you are. You wouldn't have to provide me with "likely scenarios" and "maybes". You'd have definitive evidence to back up your claim. I've given you the parts of this leak that are definitely impossible. I've explained why. Nobody has addressed these."

We don't have enough information on the leak to prove it impossible, nor do we have enough info to prove it as real. Saying you proved it as fake or "impossible" is getting ahead of yourself.

We don't have the information needed to specifically fill in the blanks, however neither do the detractors.

I have looked at your arguments, and I understand where the skeptical nature of it comes from, but we simply DO NOT have any information as to the identity of the leaker sending the emails, and therefore, nothing can be attributed to it. You can't just assume this guy is a faker without proof of it.

So far he's been correct on about half the characters that have been revealed. Chrom, Palutena, Pac-Man, and arguably Shulk ARE safe choices. How many off the wall choices are you expecting? I can tell you right now it's not going to be too many more than what we already have. Having those 4 as "safe choices" does nothing to disprove the leak.

 

[ChikoLad]

I didn't say that you directly said that. It's a generalized point that many detractors have been making, and it's a strawman if I've ever seen one.

The mere concept that somebody would make a lucky guess of Wii Fit Trainer is so astronomically small that it's not worth considering.

We DO have facts about this leak. Sal came here soon after the leak got here, and explained his side of it. He has credibility that lends itself to the idea that he's an honest guy. It seems obvious to me that the guy isn't making this up. The guy leaking it might be, but that doesn't make Sal the bad guy.

Fact is, the Pokemon X/Y leak that was inaccurate about one or two things was still almost completely correct. So far, the leak in question has been wrong on ONE thing, and that was the E3 reveals (which he was still 50% on, which was a 50% with arguably the most questionable choices aside from Mega Man). One mistake doesn't make it fake.

At least that is the majority of what I'm seeing get argued against this leak in particular. He was wrong about ONE thing. Not to mention, Sal has said he received that email months before hand, and as with any business, plans to reveal content can be changed depending on what needs to be dealt with. It's a perfectly plausible explanation. Plans were changed. It happens all the time.

I'm not going to be the type of person who is like, "ZOMG THIS IS TOTES REAL" because there is always the chance it isn't, no matter how convincing it is. But there is certainly a possibility that it's real, and I don't think it should be ignored.

We don't have enough information to put all the pieces together, hence why it's not possible at this point to not come up with scenarios. So just because we have to speculate on it doesn't make it any less plausible. That is the problem I have with the detractors. Nobody has the answers, so it's not fake by any stretch, and nor is it undeniably real.

Then why bring it up when quoting me? I never said that, and I agree that it is wrong grounds to not believe the leak.

And I'm not saying Sal is a "bad guy". And I have never said that I definitely think he's lying either. I only state that the leak isn't real. I don't have any definitive proof that Sal is lying about being tipped. It could go either way. Though at this point, the only two options for me to consider are "Sal's tipper is lying to him, and he just fell for the leak and started spreading it", or "Sal has no tipper, and is the liar".

But this does not change that the fact that Sal's story does not add up. "I received the e-mail months before the conference" is nothing more than an extremely convenient scapegoat without proving it.

And I already stated that a leak being accurate does not make it real unless definitive proof is provided that it is legitimately an actual leak, or if prediction are detailed AND accurate. Also, consider that Sal's leak only discusses characters. And is vague about them (like, he doesn't mention how they play). Some characters don't have a specific name listed. And some things weren't true at all. Compare to the popular comparison, the ChaosZero leak - which had EXACT info on how an ITEM worked, among other things that were correct.

 

[viewtifulduck82]

Ridley was not mentioned after the tease in direct? This is one of my biggest doubts, but I doubt my own judgment that he's in the game equally as much, if not more. However, I will go so far as to say the leak is NOT valid if we DO see Ridley at E3. Ridley is too big to be missed.

He never stated that he had all the information, so you can't dispel the rumor just because a big piece of info wasn't mentioned. Just like Rosalina, Ridley would be no different if confirmed. Now, if he had said "these are all the newcomers present in the game" when referring to his list of newcomers, you'd have something to go on.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

Then why bring it up when quoting me? I never said that, and I agree that it is wrong grounds to not believe the leak.

And I'm not saying Sal is a "bad guy". And I have never said that I definitely think he's lying either. I only state that the leak isn't real. I don't have any definitive proof that Sal is lying about being tipped. It could go either way. Though at this point, the only two options for me to consider are "Sal's tipper is lying to him, and he just fell for the leak and started spreading it", or "Sal has no tipper, and is the liar".

But this does not change that the fact that Sal's story does not add up. "I received the e-mail months before the conference" is nothing more than an extremely convenient scapegoat without proving it.

And I already stated that a leak being accurate does not make it real unless definitive proof is provided that it is legitimately an actual leak, or if prediction are detailed AND accurate. Also, consider that Sal's leak only discusses characters. And is vague about them (like, he doesn't mention how they play). Some characters don't have a specific name listed. And some things weren't true at all. Compare to the popular comparison, the ChaosZero leak - which had EXACT info on how an ITEM worked, among other things that were correct.

The Pokemon X/Y part is easily explainable by using the Fire Emblem example I included in my gigantic post from yesterday.

Essentially, Sakurai planned on having a character from Fire Emblem that was a heavier character, but had nobody in mind. Therefore, before Ike was the decided upon character, it can be argued that that character selection would be left as "Fire Emblem character" or something in that vein.

Should Sal be telling the truth about the email (which is arguably correct based on his background), the decision to include an "X/Y Pokemon" over a specific one, being juxtaposed to the Fire Emblem example is actually very similar. Months ago, it's possible that there was a plan to include a new gen Pokemon, but it wasn't decided until later to include Greninja, similar to how Ike was eventually the chosen character for Fire Emblem.

Frankly, any information that isn't in this particular leak is irrelevant. If Sal isn't leaking items, he's not leaking items. All we're looking at is characters, and as such should treat it as what it is. At least that's my opinion on it.

 

[Deleted member]

Here's the story.

About a week ago, respectable NeoGAF member Sal Romano, who runs a site called Gematsu, received an email from a source claiming that Villager, Mega Man, Wii Fitness Trainer, Little Mac, Pac-Man, and Mii would be revealed at E3. Sal did not post this on his site because he wasn't able to verify the information, but he did jokingly post the list a day before SSB4's reveal on NeoGAF as a "prediction" just in case it was correct.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=62304489&postcount=2996

Look at the date. It's important to note that the post hasn't been edited at all.

Sal told me that as soon as Wii Fit Trainer was revealed, he ran and posted the list on his site because he knew at that point it couldn't have been a lucky guess from his source.

http://gematsu.com/2013/06/wii-fit-trainer-joins-super-smash-bros

I received some additional verification that I'm not going to post, but that's the gist of it all. Sal's legit and his source is credible. It's only a matter of whether Nintendo decided at the last minute to change their E3 plans and hold off on Little Mac, Pac-Man, and Mii.

Love how this detail is often ignored by detractors.
A known fighting game leaker verifies that Sal isn't making **** up and sees the source of Sal's info as credible.

But no, the whole thing is a series of lucky guesses and safe bets made up by Sal himself as a ploy for attention and CAW is in on the whole thing.

 

[Morbi]

Love how this detail is often ignored by detractors.
A known fighting game leaker verifies that Sal isn't making **** up and sees the source of Sal's info as credible.

But no, the whole thing is a series of lucky guesses and safe bets made up by Sal himself as a ploy for attention and CAW is in on the whole thing.

Precisely; to thoroughly refute the leak, one must assert that the leaker was making "lucky guesses," there is no evidence that directly contradicts the leak. The only real detail that bothers anyone is that Little Mac, Pac-Man, and Mii were saved for later, which is completely reasonable. That doesn't necessarily mean that it is true, but no one can prove that it isn't true. The leak is supported by a preponderance of the evidence.

 

[The Real Gamer]

@ Scoliosis Jones @GoldenYuiitusin I honestly think you guys are just wasting your breath (fingers)... No matter how legitimate of an argument you guys make the detractors will still cling to their beliefs.

Then once the Sal leak is proven to be true half of them will flip flop and claim that Sal being legit was "obvious" just like they continuously do with the Villager.

 

[BADGRAPHICS]

"Like I said pages ago - the more you look at this, the more nonsensical it is, and the less reason you have to believe it. This leak makes no sense whatsoever. If it did, you wouldn't need to make excuses, like you are. You wouldn't have to provide me with "likely scenarios" and "maybes". You'd have definitive evidence to back up your claim. I've given you the parts of this leak that are definitely impossible. I've explained why. Nobody has addressed these."

You know, I've actually forgotten what your argument is. There are a few things that point to this leak being real, and none whatsoever that point to it being fake. Obviously, every leak is pretty much fake by default until something happens to suggest otherwise, like this one.

Do you actually have a real reason to think the leak is fake?

If not, you should align yourself with the consensus the rest of us have reached, which is "this leak could be real, worth keeping an eye on". That's the reason this leak has its own thread in the first place. I fail to see why that's such a hard thing to agree with.

 

[KenboCalrissian]

He never stated that he had all the information, so you can't dispel the rumor just because a big piece of info wasn't mentioned. Just like Rosalina, Ridley would be no different if confirmed. Now, if he had said "these are all the newcomers present in the game" when referring to his list of newcomers, you'd have something to go on.

It's not that I think the leak contains all newcomers, but I think you're right. Initially, I was thinking Ridley is a huge enough deal that I can't imagine him not appearing at E3. Now that you've pointed it out though, I see I contradicted myself on my main point that 'nothing is certain and plans can change.' So, yeah, you got me

 

[Spazzy_D]

I'm beginning to think a lot of the people in this thread haven't followed games in development that have leaked before, or they wouldn't be making the arguments that they are.

 

[Morbi]

I feel as though many are not looking at this leak objectively. The absolute fact that certain characters were ascertained by the leaker is more than enough evidence to actually support the leak.

Wii Fit Trainer- Confirmed
Villager- Confirmed
Mega Man- Confirmed

If you know anything about about Sakurai's direct implications, if you know anything about acquiring a license, and if you used logic to support your speculation; none of these characters were entirely obvious. Many wanted Mega Man, that doesn't mean that he was likely. He is a 3rd party character, Sakurai cannot just will him into the game. Villager, we have been over extensively, Sakurai literally denounced him. He was obviously still feasible, but logic didn't support this notion.

Little Mac- Confirmed
Pac-Man- Unconfirmed (One of the most notable video-game icons; Namco is co-developing the game)
Mii- Unconfirmed (One of the most prominent Nintendo characters after Mario)

Lastly
Pokemon from X and Y- Confirmed
Chrom- Unconfirmed (Most logical Fire Emblem character in regards to marketing and notability)
Palutena- Unconfirmed (One of the only characters with evidence of inclusion; Sora Ltd.'s revival also incites interest in her chances)

The only characters that really "bother" me; are Shulk and Chorus Men. Shulk has enough merit, but he isn't as obvious as the other candidates, who are most probably "all-star" material.

So we already have 5/11 confirmed; it doesn't seem like much until you start attributing value to some of the less overt candidates, namely the first 3. THE ONES THAT GAVE THIS LEAK ITS CREDIBILITY.

Chrom and Palutena are on pretty much every leak; they are immaterial. If they are revealed, our first thoughts aren't going to be, "The Sal leak must be true!"

So we should look at: Pac-Man, Mii, Shulk, and Chorus Men. If Shulk gets revealed, I am going to pay more attention to this leak; however, if Chorus Men are revealed, it all but officially confirms this leak.

Pac-Man and Mii are difficult, they are some of the most obvious candidates. But no one likes them, no one wants them (in the hardcore Smash community). So it is difficult to fathom enduring both of them. It is apparent that all odd choices are already out of the way; all characters with merit are left. The only odd choice is Chorus Men. Take that as you will, but everyone discussing this leak knows that each and every one of those characters on that list are very likely if Sakurai chooses based on logic and perceived move-set potential.

It all comes down to Chorus Men.

 

[Louie G.]

Duhrr I'm sonicbrawler, and I hate Pac-Man.

I'm upset about the Rhythm Heaven hate here. It's such a great series, and it deserves a character as much as Mother does, let alone 2 Mother characters.
Shoot me down, you know it's true.

Don't count out a leak just because it includes a far-fetched character, or someone you don't like. Wii Fit Trainer and even Villager are good examples of this.

 

[BADGRAPHICS]

Duhrr I'm sonicbrawler, and I hate Pac-Man.

I'm upset about the Rhythm Heaven hate here. It's such a great series, and it deserves a character as much as Mother does, let alone 2 Mother characters.
Shoot me down, you know it's true.

Don't count out a leak just because it includes a far-fetched character, or someone you don't like. Wii Fit Trainer and even Villager are good examples of this.

Church.

I don't really get character hate in general. As long as we get a bunch of diverse characters, the roster will be amazing.
We already have a bunch of diverse characters, so... the roster is amazing? Yes.

 

[SmashChu]

I have already justified the arguments you brought up against with the Pokémon X & Y argument. I have explained that Brawl + Mewtwo could accomplish everything that the Pokémon Company would want to achieve with characters and that a 6th gen Pokémon was not necessary. Thus, Gekkouga's inclusion came as a shock to the vast majority of the fan base. What I have also shown was that very specific predictions that no one else would have guessed have happened in pre-Brawl after being leaked and that we're facing a similar situation with Wii Fit Trainer here. Finally, you asked two things:

- Why the sudden vagueness of "Pokemon from X & Y" after Shulk, Palutena, Chrom and Chorus Men?
- Why Rosalina was never mentioned?

With the first one, I explained that the design document was very likely obtained from very early in development; which explains Pokémon X & Y instead of Gekkouga and Animal Crossing Guy instead of Villager. With the second, I also explained that while the tipper does know information about newcomers, he is not omniscient and as such, he does not have access to all information in regards to newcomers. If there are others I did not address, I will get to them if I haven't already.

Also, you cannot eliminate the possibility of this leak being real. Nothing that you have posted has proven that this leak is a well-fabricated fake and so far, there is no real way to prove it. Until we see a character disconfirmation from the leak, we cannot prove that this leak is fake and should be dismissed. Even incorrect aspects of the leak can be explained by Salromano's tipper receiving outdated information. It could certainly be a fake, but it can also be real.

Show me where I ever said this. I have said the entire time that this leak has contradicted the expectations people had with Pokémon as well as characters like Wii Fit Trainer. Not once did I argue that this leak met people's expectations.
Your comparison in regards to the 4chan picture and Salromano's leak is flawed. The 4chan picture had the OP asking what they wanted to see in regards to a new Pokémon. Salromano on the other hand, posted the information the day before the Direct in regards to predictions. On top of this, the 4chan user has no track record of leaking information whereas Salromano has a reputation for being a legitimate leaker.

Also...

You've committed Occam Razor when you tried to explain multiple scenario for why you feel the information isn't legitimate. For example, when you explained why the Wii Fit Trainer doesn't mean anything towards the leak legitimacy, you've came up with multiple scenario to explain your point about Wii Fit Trainer being a lucky guess. There wasn't a source for Wii Fit Trainer before her confirmation; she made sense because her game sold well.

The first scenario ignores that similar things has happened with the ChaosZero leak pre-Brawl. He leaked the Dragoon as an item and it was shown on the DOJO. The game then got released and the rest of the information turned out legitimate. ChaosZero did not have a source (or more accurately, could not prove his source) and in fact, said it was a rumor. As for the second scenario, it reeks of hindsight bias. It makes sense because you rationalzed it after the fact that Wii Fit Trainer was in the game, not before. No one rationalized Wii Fit Trainer as a potential prospect before her confirmation. I, on the other hand, only have to explain one thing; because no one though Wii Fit Trainer would be in (she only got a GameFAQs thread that was a joke), it points towards the leak being more true.

You're also as guilty of confirmation bias as much, if not even more than I have been with this leak. Your entire campaign against this leak has been exactly what confirmation bias is. People say that Wii Fit Trainer has never been brought up seriously as a possible characters, you attempt to rationalize this by bringing up sales charts and "he has no source", failing to note that there is no evidence Sakurai factors in sales for character inclusion and that ChaosZero also did not have a source he could prove. Pac-Man is on the leak and you committed confirmation bias by saying "Sakurai say Namco gets no special treatment" and rationalized to your own bias by saying "Pac-Man isn't getting in, so the leak is fake". This of course, fails to recognize that Sakurai did not rule out a Namco character, just said that Namco wasn't getting special treatment. Pokémon X and Y is brought up and you rationalize this as "it's vague so it's fake", ignoring that there has been precedence for spots planned for an unspecific character and that the character was added later on (see Ike) when Sakurai decided on a character and as such, it is likely that the information salromano's tipper got was outdated.

If you're going to accuse people who believe this leak of confirmation bias and other fallacies, note that the other side has as bad, if not even worse. And you, yourself, have been among the worst offenders.

I have to agree with Sonicbrawler because you must be on some goood stuff.

I'm not going to waste my time with this because you aren't willing to understand what confirmation bias actually is but try you darnedest to accuse me of it. For anyone who is actually interested, here is a brief summary on it. Confirmation bias is when you make the conclusion fit the hypothesis and ignore or rationalize information to do that. I weighed the evidence against each other and came up with a conclusion. As such, I can not be guilty of confirmation bias.

The end result of this conversation will be twisting everything around to where we really don't get any where and we both look like fools. The point of your post was to accuse me and nothing more. You bring up information from conversations many months ago and which are not relevant to the current conversation. You further twist instances and words to fit your narrative. It's clear: you want to discuss the rumor because you want it to be real. If you're willing to have a logical conversation, then I will give you one. Until then, smell ya later.

 

[Louie G.]

Out of curiousity...
What makes the new Sal leak real? What makes it fake?
There is no solid evidence at this point, and the batch can be easily guessed, barring Chorus Men, who will again make or break this leak.
So we'll just have to wait and see. Forgetting about Sal's first leak for a while, there's no solid evidence for either side yet.

 

[Autumn ♫]

The largest factor that gets me not to believe is that the Chorus Men were also "leaked", however Sakurai is having trouble with the Ice Climbers. So, wouldn't the Chorus Men be harder to create than the Ice Climbers?

 

[Shroob]

I have to agree with Sonicbrawler because you must be on some goood stuff.

I'm not going to waste my time with this because you aren't willing to understand what confirmation bias actually is but try you darnedest to accuse me of it. For anyone who is actually interested, here is a brief summary on it. Confirmation bias is when you make the conclusion fit the hypothesis and ignore or rationalize information to do that. I weighed the evidence against each other and came up with a conclusion. As such, I can not be guilty of confirmation bias.

The end result of this conversation will be twisting everything around to where we really don't get any where and we both look like fools. The point of your post was to accuse me and nothing more. You bring up information from conversations many months ago and which are not relevant to the current conversation. You further twist instances and words to fit your narrative. It's clear: you want to discuss the rumor because you want it to be real. If you're willing to have a logical conversation, then I will give you one. Until then, smell ya later.

I like how Smashchu never responds to the MOD posts, or hell, I don't think he even responded when Sal himself quoted his post in the last thread.

 

[Louie G.]

The largest factor that gets me not to believe is that the Chorus Men were also "leaked", however Sakurai is having trouble with the Ice Climbers. So, wouldn't the Chorus Men be harder to create than the Ice Climbers?

Not if the three of them move as one.
If Sakurai programs one character to LOOK like 3 characters, then that character would essentially be one character. This is what I think Chorus Men would be.
Rhythm Heaven, especially Glee Club, is all about sticking together and doing the same thing. Having a trio that never separates would represent not only Rhythm Heaven well, but the Chorus Men as characters. The whole point of the game is to do exactly what the others do. While Ice Climbers can stray separately from each other, the Chorus Men stay together, as they are programmed as one character.
Which is why I see Chorus Men as easier to develop than ICs.

 

[Autumn ♫]

Not if the three of them move as one.
If Sakurai programs one character to LOOK like 3 characters, then that character would essentially be one character. This is what I think Chorus Men would be.
Rhythm Heaven, especially Glee Club, is all about sticking together and doing the same thing. Having a trio that never separates would represent not only Rhythm Heaven well, but the Chorus Men as characters. The whole point of the game is to do exactly what the others do. While Ice Climbers can stray separately from each other, the Chorus Men stay together, as they are programmed as one character.
Which is why I see Chorus Men as easier to develop than ICs.

Than how would the rhythm thing work? You'd need the 3 to time the rhythm perfectly, one would think. I think Sakurai tries to make the Climbers move as close to the same time as possible too, and having one character look like 3 doesn't really look like something Sakurai would do, otherwise he would have done it already with the Climbers.

 

[Shroob]

Than how would the rhythm thing work? You'd need the 3 to time the rhythm perfectly, one would think. I think Sakurai tries to make the Climbers move as close to the same time as possible too, and having one character look like 3 doesn't really look like something Sakurai would do, otherwise he would have done it already with the Climbers.

Maybe their non smash A moves hit three times? Alternatively, timing the button presses could summon the other 2 to do more hits.

 

[Louie G.]

Than how would the rhythm thing work? You'd need the 3 to time the rhythm perfectly, one would think. I think Sakurai tries to make the Climbers move as close to the same time as possible too, and having one character look like 3 doesn't really look like something Sakurai would do, otherwise he would have done it already with the Climbers.

Easily, actually.
Take one of the attacks I had in mind: Glee Club.
It starts with one Chorus Man singing a note, sending out a small musical note. It's still just one character, although it's animated so that only one Chorus Man sings.
Then you press B with a certain rhythm for the second Man to sing. This sends out a slightly larger note and the animation changes so that only one Chorus Man isn't singing.
Then the last one sings, with good timing at least. This sends out a fair sized note, which does more damage than the others.
You hear a faint "Together Now", and pressing the button directly afterwards causes them all to sing, blasting a shockwave that deals great knockback.
What does this have to do with programming one character? Well I guess I'm just trying to say that the character can be programmed to look like 3 characters, with each one of the Men attacking separately through another animation for said attack.
Do you understand what I mean? It sounds kind of confusing come to think of it.

 

[Autumn ♫]

Maybe their non smash A moves hit three times?

It's possible, but having Sakurai have one character look like 3 seems really unlike him still, I mean, wouldn't he have also done this with the Ice Climbers in Melee as well? Heck, I'm even having a hard time thinking about what that would look like.

Easily, actually.
Take one of the attacks I had in mind: Glee Club.
It starts with one Chorus Man singing a note, sending out a small musical note. It's still just one character, although it's animated so that only one Chorus Man sings.
Then you press B with a certain rhythm for the second Man to sing. This sends out a slightly larger note and the animation changes so that only one Chorus Man isn't singing.
Then the last one sings, with good timing at least. This sends out a fair sized note, which does more damage than the others.
You hear a faint "Together Now", and pressing the button directly afterwards causes them all to sing, blasting a shockwave that deals great knockback.
What does this have to do with programming one character? Well I guess I'm just trying to say that the character can be programmed to look like 3 characters, with each one of the Men attacking separately through another animation for said attack.
Do you understand what I mean? It sounds kind of confusing come to think of it.

I believe I understand what you mean, but like I said above, it's seems alot more likely that Sakurai would do what he did with Ice Climbers and make them 3 seperate entity's than one character that looks like it's 3.

Also, another point. Most leaks usually have a really out of place character, like the Tin Star leak for example. What makes us not think that along with some sense of what's popular and high selling, along with thinking of a character that would be a WTF character, he didn't just come up with WFT? I mean, I've seen people predict her (although in a joking manner) and didn't Sal say before E3 that his list was just an unlikely prediction?

 

[Louie G.]

Well for the record, I can totally see Ice Climbers being programmed as one character this time, to get around the 3DS limitations and nerf them in the process.

 

[CyberWolfBia]

Wasn't (sadly) the Rhythm Heaven producer diagnosed with cancer?.. maybe the Chorus Men are a way that Sakurai found to pay homage for him; I guess is a logic line of thought (a weak logic, but still)....
Well, but the lineup isn't bad, and there's Pac-Man, I'm fine =P.