Seeing as we don't have to vote for a king anymore, no one will have to worry about... well... *cough* you know
![Wink ;) ;)](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7)
. So, that said, I can disobey Gheb
BY, what's your opinion on SSBF's flip.
To be completely honest, I was surprised. I was so confident he was scum, I really meant it when I said "I'll bet my game life on it". Well, if you want to take me up on that bet, you have an easy lynch
As for SRB's post... well, it's dead easy to state counter-arguments.
I figured Guus would be killed, if he was king again he probably would have lynched blue yoshi.
Lets break the vote down, and what would be the best person to nightkill if each of us were scum. I'll finish this off with what would happen if each of us were scum, but I'll start it off with what is the same for both.
In terms of scumminess/townness, Guus was virtually confirmed town, while I was the scummest player left of the four (though S2 said yesterday he finds SRB suspiscious, and objected to my lynch on that day... so that should be taken note of).
Now lets go to each person's individual votes.
I could not vote... for reasons I had already stated.
S2 (confirmed town) would probably very likely vote for Guus. Neither one of the two of us would be townie enough for S2 to trust a vote on us, so... well, his only smart option is Guus. (consider the fact that if scum were voted as king, the game is over... so it would not be in S2's best interest to vote for either of us). Well... S2, if you voted for someone else, then this changes this... anyways, it doesn't affect you now, so you might as well say who you voted for (though from your last post, it sounds like you ended up voting for Guus).
Guus made it very clear he thinks I am the last scum... so he would never vote for me. That leaves S2 and SRB. I don't think he had one of you as confirmed town, so his vote could be considered a toss-up.
I'll go over SRB's vote in a bit, as... well, it depends on his alliance.
That makes the final vote count for king as one vote for Guus, one vote on either S2 or SRB, and SRB's vote.
Ok, now lets consider both possibilities (as in each of me and SRB being scum).
First scenario, I am scum, SRB is town.
SRB said in his post that he knew I was scum, and voted for you (I'll talk more about this later, as there are many things that don't make sense with this). If he were town, then there would be no reason for him to lie about this, so lets assume this is true (remember, this is assuming I am scum and he is town). This would leave the final vote count as one vote for Guus (from S2), one confirmed vote for S2 (from SRB), and a final vote for S2 or SRB from Guus.
The two possible final vote counts are S2 has 2 votes, Guus has 1 vote, meaning S2 is voted as king (provided he is not nightkilled, which he wasn't). Seeing as S2 is king, this is a possible outcome.
The other possibility is a three-way tie between Guus, S2, and SRB, all with 1 vote. Guus was nightkilled, meaning the result of who becomes king depends on who had the most votes in the last election vote between S2 and SRB. Seeing as S2 is king, the only way for this possibility to be plausible is if S2 had the most votes, but this cannot be confirmed, as we don't have everyone here to count the votes. Well... bottom line, no matter how Guus voted, the result would be S2 gets the most votes as king.
I am scum (remember, we are assuming I am scum and SRB is town), so I would get to nightkill someone. Logically, it would seem most likely that SRB and S2 would vote for Guus as king, seeing as he is virtually confirmed town. Guus said that if he were king, he would very likely lynch me (seeing as both me and SSBF were his only two lynch candidates), so logically, it would be in my best interest to nightkill Guus.
So... basically, me as scum and SRB as town would result in Guus nightkilled and S2 voted as town.
Now let's look at the other scenario.
SRB is scum and I am town.
The current vote count is 1 vote for Guus, and 1 vote for S2 or SRB. SRB still has a vote and a nightkill to do (though logically, it would be smart to vote for the person he is night killing, so that he does not have one vote going for someone not him, so his vote can be considered "null". So lets assume, for simplicity's sake, that he does this, so his vote doesn't matter, and only his night kill does). Now lets consider both Guus votes, and see what SRB's best option in each case are (keep in mind that he does not know who Guus votes for).
Lets first assume that Guus voted for S2. Now the current votes are 1 for each Guus and S2. It is now impossible for SRB to be king. Having me in the final 3 as a non-king will make getting him not lynched easier, so it would be in his best interest for him not to vote for me, and not to kill me. So basically, he has the ability to decide who is king, and who is lynched between the two mentioned (S2 and Guus). As far as which would most benifit himself, Guus said that SSBF and I were his top two suspects, so odds would be that if Guus were king, he would lynch me. S2, however, stated yesterday that he found SRB suspiscious, and was against Guus lynching me (preferred a SSBF lynch, whether because he thought I was town, or that SSBF seemed more scummy than me with me still being scummy, I don't know... but the fact remains that he found SRB suspiscious and wanted me to stay alive). So... it would be a toss-up with S2... maybe more likely that SRB gets lynched. But that said, either way is a toss-up, with a slight more likely chance for said person to get lynched.
Lets now assume that Guus had voted for SRB. This leaves the vote count as one vote for Guus (from S2), and one vote for SRB (from Guus). SRB, being scum (remember, this entire scenario is assuming that SRB is scum and I am town) could use his nightkill on Guus, thus making him as the only person with a vote, thus making him king, thus making him the winner (as scum king can lynch anyone for the win). So bottom line, he can hope for Guus to vote for him, and then nightkill Guus for the win. For completion's sake (for the case where Guus voted for S2), lets see what happens if Guus voted SRB, but SRB night killed S2 instead. Guus and SRB would be tied for votes, but Guus would win the tiebreaker for being the one with the most votes in the last election (he was king, so it is obvious he had the most votes). Guus would more likely lynch me over SRB, as explained above.
So, summary of all of this, and what are the possible outcomes if he night kills each of S2 or Guus:
If he were to lynch S2, the first scenario (Guus voting S2) would result in Guus being king. The second scenario (Guus voting SRB) would also result in Guus being king. So... by lynching S2, he would guarantee that Guus gets king.
If he were to lynch Guus, the first scenario (Guus voting S2) would result in S2 being king. The second scenario (Guus voting SRB) would result in SRB being king, resulting in a win for SRB, since he's scum and king, and... well, he wins.
So, his options is a guaranteed Guus king and S2 night kill, or either a S2 king and Guus night kill or a win. It is quite clear that the second option is better (S2 or a win), since he has a chance to win, and if not, well... either way (with Guus or S2 as king), he'd have to convince them that I am scum and he is town.
So, it would be in his best interest to night kill Guus. However, Guus voted for S2, meaning that S2 became king. (this is an assumption, under the assumption that I am town and SRB is scum).
So that said, whether I am scum, or SRB is scum, Guus being night killed and S2 being voted as king would happen. It would have been in both our best interest to night kill Guus. As for S2 being king, if Guus voted for S2, no matter who was scum between us, S2 would have been voted king. If Guus voted for SRB, it would be impossible for SRB to be scum, while it is plausible for me to be scum (depends on who had more king votes in past elections). But the bottom line is that either one of us could have been scum with the night kill / king outcome.
Basically, the point of this is that the king/nightkill result does not reveal anything about either one of us being scum.
IF THERE IS A FLAW IN MY LOGIC AT ANY POINT, PLEASE POINT IT OUT, AS IT COULD POTENTIALLY CHANGE EVERYTHING.
OK, now that that has all been said, time to move on. lol at one sentence resulting in such a long response to disprove a statement (well... more like prove that that is not the only possible reason for the outcome, as if I were scum, that statement would be true).
the fact that S2 hasn't ended the game means he is town
Ok, this is fairly obvious. S2 is town, so now the last scum is either me or SRB.
so the scum is blue Yoshi. I know this for a fact.
Captain obvious strikes again. If you are town, then yes, this is a fact. If you are scum, then... well, you are trying to convince S2 that I am scum (either way, you are trying to convince him that I am scum). So this makes this statement pointless, as no matter what your alliance is, this is what you are trying to convince S2 to be the current situation.
I am a vanilla townie. (*gasps*) I don't think we can character claim but idk. will check my role pm later.
Ok, once again, if you are town, then you have no reason to lie, and you are a vanilla townie. If you are scum, then... well, I'm the last town, and I claimed vanilla townie, and I have no reason to lie about this, so it would be safe to assume that the last town role is a vanilla townie. So either way, once again, no matter what your alliance is, you would be best off claiming vanilla townie.
and S2, it was finals week, brah. you live near UK, right? busy busy times.
I'll be honest, as a University student myself, I can understand how tough finals can be, so I myself would forgive you for not being able to post much for that. Lol, the first thing I agree with you has nothing to do with the game itself lol.
you would seriously base the outcome of this game on a coin flip and instincts?? if you don't lynch By after all the scum tells he has dropped I will seriously lose all respect for you. I'm so surprised you are leaning toward me after all this.
OMG... lol... probably the worst statement I've seen. He can decide to base the outcome how he likes. Though if I am reading between the lines properly, he did not do a coin-flip or anything, and simply said that to see what your reaction would be (and maybe mine...). If that was the case, then... well, he got quite the reaction lol. I know it's a bad thing to not believe the person that makes the final decision, but I am very confident a coin flip was not used when he made that statement.
Ok, I'm going off on a tangent, but it is completely relevant to what I mean. Here is the season finale of Survivor: Vanuatu (don't worry, I'm only getting you guys to listen to 3 mins of it). Watch Sarge's speech, from 6:40 to 8:40:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=09MwZmPaK5w&feature=related
now look at the result, from 3:30 to 4:15 of this video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qkTFbF2QdYs&feature=related
Though I think it's obvious that Chris knew what was going on, but the point still stands. If I'm right, this is exactly what S2 was doing to you... and... well, look at your reaction.
Anyways, moving on:
I know I don't have a say in it, but i voted you for king because I knew BY was the scum and guus would probably be killed because we would've won by now had he been re-elected.
First off, as I proved in the vote/nightkill section at the start of this post, no matter what your alliance is, S2 would be king and Guus would be night killed. However, for the sake of countering your statement, let us assume that you are town. Now, for what it's worth, it would be safefor you to assume that Guus was town. But after that, you would have no idea who between S2 and I were town and which of us were scum. You could have had a hunch, but... well, you could not have been 100% sure. So... well... sorry for going through the "what if" sequence again, but... well, if it helps to prove a point, then might as well.
For the sake of countering your statement, lets first assume it to be true. So, you are town, and you voted for S2. Guus can be assumed confirmed town (we know he is, but at the time, it could be safe to assume), and voted for either S2 or SRB (did not vote for me for reasons stated at the start of the post). According to your assumption, I am scum, and S2 is town. S2 voted for Guus (reason given at the start of the post). I did not have a vote, but (with reason given at the start of the post) would have night killed Guus. So now, the final outcome is 1 vote for Guus from S2 (night killed, so doesn't matter), 1 vote for S2 (from SRB, according to assumption), and 1 vote for either S2 or SRB from Guus (would have not voted for me). So this leaves the two possible outcomes to be two votes for S2, resulting in S2 being king (which is the outcome that arrived), or a tie between S2 and SRB (which would end up being decided by who had the most votes in previous elections. We cannot confirm who would have won this tie-breaker, so this could have gone either way). So that said, either S2 would be king, or there would be a tie-breaker between S2 and SRB. So the final outcome would have likely been S2 king and Guus night killed. Though keep in mind that SRB, even though he was very convinced that I was scum, would not know 100% that S2 was town, so he is very well risking making S2, a still potential scum, the win by making him king.
Now, what doesn't make sense about this is why the vote for S2? Yes, Guus was going to be lynched, but... well, then why not vote for Guus? Here's what would have happened if that was the case: There would have been two votes for Guus (one from S2, and one from SRB), and one vote for either S2 or SRB from Guus. Now, if Guus had voted S2, S2 would have been king again, and we're back to square 1, but had guus voted for SRB, SRB would have been king.
So in summary, assuming your assumption is true, had Guus voted for S2, S2 would be king either way. However, had Guus voted SRB... had SRB voted for S2, it would have been a tie. But had SRB voted for Guus, then SRB would be king. It would be much in SRB's favour to be king than to have S2 be king, because first, him SRB being king is much better than S2 being king, since he is king, and that is always a good thing, but second, it is better for SRB to be king than S2 to be king because he could not be 100% sure that S2 is king.
So... in summary, it would have been a much smarter move on your part if you were town to vote for Guus as king over S2 as king, as the final result would be in your favour.
Now, for the sake of completion, assuming SRB's statement were true (minus assumptions), but S2 would have turned up scum and I were town (we know this isn't true, but for the sake of proving that voting for Guus was, in all cases, a better move on his part than voting for S2):
It is very safe to assume that Guus was town, so it is safe to assume that town would vote for Guus, since he's a safe choice, and they don't have to worry about accidentally voting for scum. So using that logic, it would be in S2's favour to night-kill Guus (and place his vote on him, thus cancelling the vote). Now, we have Guus night-killed (so either way, no matter which of the three of us were scum, Guus was going to be night killed either way). This leaves us with Guus's vote on either S2 or SRB, and SRB's vote on either S2 or Guus. It is clearly obvious that no matter how Guus votes, it would have been a smarter move on SRB's part to vote for Guus than S2, since voting for a "confirmed" town is better than an unknown (which turned out to be scum).
So... in summary, no matter what S2 or my alliance turned out to be, it would have been a smarter move on SRB's part to vote for Guus than it would be to vote for S2.
Actually, for the sake of completion, a question to both S2 and SRB: let us assume that each of you is scum, and it was night time, and you had to pick someone to night kill, who would have you chosen? Could both of you give reasons on why you would have chosen said person over someone else? This is to see if my statements are true. S2, obviously this doesn't affect you, but it's to prove my point. And SRB... well, don't lie, because if you get caught lying, it would be easy to prove that you are scum. I already stated myself that, assuming I am scum, I would have night killed Guus.
Ok, moving on:
I have faith in you, S2. if you want evidence or something hit me up, but it really should be obvious by now. it was obvious yesterday and the day before that.
First off, "I have faith in you, S2" is basically a null statement. I mean... seriously... what is there to gain by that? It's as if you're desperate for him to lynch me. Anyways... no point over analyzing this, so moving on to the rest.
Now is the time for you to provide all the evidence. It's the last day, he is making a final decision. So even if the evidence against me is overwhelming to the point where there is no doubt that I am scum, you should still go find all that evidence, and use it against me here. No matter how obvious this evidence may be, bring it up again.
lol sorry for the incredibly long post, but... well, I proved all of SRB's statements to be obsolete (i.e. pointless, or null statements), or that they are false (either there was a better option, or that the statement simply does not make sense). So... yeah.
Anyways, could both of you answer the question I asked? If you missed it (by skimming or by having forgot about it), it was this:
Assume that you were scum (S2 and SRB). It is night time, and you have to night kill someone, and you are not aware of the voting results / etc. that happened (i.e. you don't know who has voted who). Who would you night kill, and why? Please explain why you would night kill that person over someone else.
S2, I know you are king, and you don't have to defend yourself, but the reason why I ask you to answer this not to defend yourself, but it is because if you were to answer differently from my statement/assumptions used in this post, then... well, it could make my entire statement obsolete (and I'll have to go over it again).
I answered this question stating that assuming I were scum, I would vote for Guus, since first off, he would likely have the most votes for king, and if he did become king, he would very likely lynch me.
Anyways, I think my post is long enough lol (sorry for the extremely long post).
And for the record, this post took me 5 hours to make (started at 11 pm my time, and am posting this at 4 am my time).