I don't think Roy is going to be in the retail version of Smash 4. However, I still think he has a good shot if DLC happens.
As for Lucina, she looks very "cloney" to the point where people are wondering if she is an alternate costume. It would be weird for Sakurai to add in a Melee-style clone considering how unique all the other newcomers for Smash 4 have been, and how two out of three of the clone newcomers from Brawl (Wolf and Lucas) only shared five moves with their original counterparts.
I feel vindicated in regards to Chrom though (and My Unit/Robin). For the longest time I said that I thought that Chrom and Ike gave off the same feel in terms of characters (especially considering Radiant Dawn Ike was used). I also said that if a newcomer from Awakening were selected, that the My Unit/Robin would be the best way to go for a character that contrasts with Marth and Ike (and Roy).
For us Roy fans, we have the marvelous Project M update to him to satisfy our fiery needs (and we will probably get some cool alternate costumes of him in 4.0). As a veteran, I do think he has a good shot of showing up as DLC, but for now, we have Project M (which I think is going to be a sort of companion title for Smash 4).
We fought long and hard for our boy. I myself fought ever since the the leaked Brawl roster was vindicated back in January 2008. Heck, I was at the forefront of Roy's return during pre-Brawl.
We fought well. And although we did not (although Roy is not de-confirmed, its unlikely he is going to be in at this point) get Roy to return, we still found a way to enjoy Roy alongside the rest of the modern Smash Bros. cast (Project M).
Its kind of ironic how the two main contenders for a third Fire Emblem slot (Roy and Chrom) both got knocked out. However, I think with Roy he potentially could be a DLC down the road, while Chrom is relegated to being part of Robin's Final Smash.
No doubt there will be plenty of Roy haters saying "I told you so", but having any Smash veteran not return (especially a popular one) is not a good feeling. Already things don't look good for Snake, Squirtle, and Ivysaur (Lucas might actually have a chance now if that Gematsu leaker's information is out of date).
I disproved a lot of things Roy haters have used (namely the reception regarding FE6, and how Roy got to be included in Melee), however, ultimately all my work was for naught, so things are disappointing there.
However, out of all the characters I supported for the pre-Smash 4 period, I probably supported Roy the most (I think the only other character I put some major effort into supporting was Ridley). I did much of the heavy lifting with this fanbase, lifting some inspiring images from the FE6 manga to rally our fanbase. But ultimately, looks like Awakening proved to be too much of a juggernaut for Roy to overcome. Hopefully, the same fate does not befall Mewtwo (and that both him and Jigglypuff make it into the final retail roster).
However, in the end, its not like we lost entirely. As mentioned earlier, we still have the Project M's Roy (and Mewtwo). For many of us, we will never forget all the times we had enjoying the lord with the flaming sword, and continue to enjoy him, regardless of the fact that he won't be in the retail version of Smash 4.
Roy will forever be our Boy!
Thanks for everything everyone. This has been an incredible 6.5 years. Sure things did not end the way I wanted them to, however, things also didn't end up like a defeat either. We got Roy in Project M (and possibly has a future as DLC), and Chrom was not Mr. Inevitable, now was he.
(sorry Chrom supporters)