Feel like overthinking some things, so here's some of my so-called Llogic for Lloyd:
I honestly agree with the sentiment Lloyd isn't a good fit for the VGAs. However, I still think he's likely - for my money, I think if he's Fighter's Pass character 5, he just gets straight up revealed in a Direct sometime between now and the VGAs. I'm certain Nintendo is bound to have one, as the holiday season is coming up soon and they're going to want to get stuff out there. This would mean that a different character, the first post-pass character, would be revealed at the VGAs. Considering Nintendo's last effort, I don't believe it is at all an impossibility that this could be kept entirely secret.
Failing that, I view one of him or Heihachi as a virtual lock for the post-pass. Additionally, I think Lloyd has a bit more fan support (not really sure on this, I'm not a pollster that's just how it feels).
The Pac-Man taunt thing is the kind of thing that seems like it should mean nothing, but I just get that feeling from it. I dunno, call me crazy, but that kind of thing so often tends to go further than you'd expect. Anyway, people speculate Geno for post pass on the grounds they believe his mii costume was pulled from returning with Hero, as there were only four costume pieces released with him. Lloyd and Heihachi's costumes haven't shown up either, but there isn't really a clear space where they both could have been "pulled".
Sure, Heihachi could have shown up with Terry, and there IS a singular missing spot there... But then where would Lloyd have been pulled from? The fifth fighter? It's a possibility. If we get someone who is not Lloyd as FP5, and it comes with five Mii costume pieces, that could well be a smoking gun. But would you pull one of their costumes just to have it return with the other? I don't really think so. We don't even know for sure that additional mii costumes would be coming with post-pass characters. We also don't know that they're not, but I'm already making a lot of assumptions in the first place so I think it's fine to make that one.
So in that case, what would make the most sense to me is that either Lloyd or Heihachi is FP5, and will come with the other one's costume returning. And I think Lloyd wins out on that one. The Heihachi in Pac-man's taunt was put there from the beginning, and the Fighter's Pass was mostly hashed out by that point. Which makes me think it could well indeed mean something for Lloyd being in the Fighter's Pass.
In the case that we get radio silence up until the VGAs, and a different character altogether is announced there, I see him as likely post-pass, but then I do also imagine he competes a bit more with Heihachi. Of course, this is also assuming his costume doesn't just pop up with FP5, which it could. However, I really do feel like the idea that the Fighter's Pass would have been over and done with without Namco getting another slice of the pie seems quite unlikely to me.
Anyway, all or most of that likely means nothing, and Sakurai is likely putting the finishing touches on Frogger as we speak. But I felt like musing on it so I mused on it.