Persona 5 got nominated for multiple awards the year before and one won, and it was still a recent game that people were talking about, not to mention Joker was a completey unexpected surprise. If they chose to reveal Lloyd at TGA where not everyone is a Smash fan nor knows who a character that hasn’t appeared in a full fledge game in 5 years outside of obscure crossovers is, do you really think people would care as much compared to if he were revealed in a general direct aimed at Nintendo Fans? Sure, character reveals are exciting but depending on when they are revealed, they can generate more hype and keep people talking about them, which is what Nintendo wants. Do you think if they revealed Terry at TGA people would be hyped? I can tell you now that quite a number of people were underwhelmed by Terry even when he was revealed in a general direct so could you imagine how they’d react to having to sit through an entire award ceremony only to be let down by a character they don’t even know? Don’t forget that there are people who don’t want Lloyd in the Fighter’s Pass because they don’t want another JRPG swordsman so I can imagine that there would be mixed opinions if he is revealed at TGA.
Look, I’m not trying to convince you that he won’t be at TGA, I’m just giving my personal reasons as to why I think he won’t. I know you won’t agree and I wish I could be as enthusiastic as you, but just don’t get your hopes too high only for them to be crushed. Trust me, it’s not a good feeling.