Sorry for the double post.
At a 108 man tourney this past weekend, I played all 4 of Lucas worst match-ups in a row, and those were my only matches at the tourney. I don't know if this valuable information, but it's information none-the-less with my opinion at the end.
1st Set (I got a Bye)
1st Match: Me (ROB) vs Marth
We randomed FD, and at first I tried to approach with Fairs, but seeing how I'm not a good ROB and I only use the character for this match-up, I just pseudo-camped and barely got the win.
2nd Match: Me (ROB) vs Marth
He cp'd Battlefield and 3-stocked me, practically.
3rd Match: Me (Lucas) vs Meta-Knight
I don't want to fight his Marth because it will **** my ROB, and since that's my character to face against Marths, it'd probably demolish my Lucas. He bans Brinstar, and I take a chance and pick Luigi's. A big stage that I can camp on with Lucas (still thinking he'll pick Marth) and fopefully survive for an obscene amount of time and take advantage of the pillars. He picks Meta-Knight, and I immediately have a ray of hope because I know exactly what he'll do. I two-stocked him. Almost a JV 3-Stock.
2nd Set
1st Match: Me (Snake) vs Game and Watch
I want to pick up Snake for this match-up but my Snake is so bad. I get 3-stocked and learn a lesson. Just so you people know, this Game and Watch player is the 4th-ranked player in my region, and went on to get 2nd place in the tourney.
2nd Match: Me (Lucas) vs Meta-Knight
Hoping for lightning to strike twice, I pick Luigi's again and lo-and-behold, he went Meta-Knight and I went Lucas. I won by a whole stock.
3rd Match: Me (Lucas) vs Game and Watch
I ban Rainbow Cruise, because he likes to go there with Game and Watch and he CPs Battlefield. I pick Lucas knowing I had no secondary to win with and I figured it'd be a lesson of learning. I camped, I played aggressive, and I spaced to the best of my ability, trying three distinct strategies with my three stocks. All failed and shut down.
3rd Set
1st Match: DK
Randomed Battlefied and it was a close match. Standing infinites are banned at the tourney and I tried my best to avoid the grab. Spammed PKFire, punished rolling and dodging with nair, and only pecked with the jab. I won.
2nd Match: DK
I ban Lylat, and he takes me to Jungle Japes. I don't know what to expect so I just camp the right and left platforms with pk fire. It works at first but he finds a way to approach and takes an early stock. I catch up each time and he is always a good percentage ahead. The high ceiling works to my avantage and I'm able to not get up-smashed. I even up the game but I fall into the water and get Klaptrapped on my last stock at ~0%. He wins.
3rd Match: DK
I think of every possible stage that I could have an advantage on. I want to avoid getting grabbed, and deal with his poor vertical recovery. I pick Brinstar and it works well. He gets an early gimp but I have the most epic comeback and in the last few seconds of the match, my dsmash keeps him from recovering for a long time on the right. DK's Up-B < Lucas D-Smash on the right. And when he tried to recover right above me, I attempt to up-smash but miss and he gets a grab to grab-release dsmash and I die. He was at 200% and I was at 100%. I made too many mistakes.
Summary:
I took on two MKs (one good, and one really really good) at Luigi's and I won. With Lucas.
Out of the 4, Game and Watch is the hardest, then Marth, then DK, then Meta-Knight. Against Marth and Game and Watch, as far as I can see, it is impossible to win on a neutral stage. PK Fire can be stopped by their aerials and they will not get punished. Game and Watch has the bucket and can nullify your recovery. Marth can out-space you and **** you up with grab to dsmash.
Of course, this is just my opinion, but I've probably played more Game and Watches and Marths than most of the Lucas board members that regularly post. I know I didn't play Lucas against Marth but I know what's reasonable what's winnable, and having played so many Marths in my region, it's just not winnable as far as I can see.
DK is fine, as long as the tournament bans standing infinites and such. The DK player I played is one of the best in our region. Really smart player and taught me a lot. I know I'm not the best Lucas and there are things I can work on. This is all based on the meta-game as of right now and how I play, and I'm confident enough to think I'm one of the better Lucases.
Edit for Knowledge and Credibility:
kramCAKEs wrote at 3:46 PM on Dec 29, 2008:
Yeah but u got me first match >_< lol, but **** lucas > mk at luigis haha too good
Bigfoot wrote at 5:00 PM on Dec 29, 2008:
yeah, that was fun, I haven't had a set that close since I played ajax, good **** man, your lucas is freakin scary. Heads up for next time, don't cp brinstar on dk. I got a little cocky at the end and almost let it slip, but that stage ***** for dk, no spiking his recovery and low blastzones for really early ko's