Social Swamp's Social Thread 3 - And now, the end is near, and so I face the final curtain...

[NintenZ]

Didn't Xenoblade X have all its DLC come out in Japan though?

Yes, but when it was released here all of the DLC was coded into the base game.

I'd say Dark Horse because despite 1 huge role he is MASSIVELY popular for Japan requests.
Like.. a top 10/15.

Thing is was that he wasn't actually created by Sakurai, and we all know how he feels about things he didn't create.

 

[Burruni]

Yes, but when it was released here all of the DLC was coded into the base game.

Thing is was that he wasn't actually created by Sakurai, and we all know how he feels about things he didn't create.

He's running out of crap to scrape from the barrel from his Kirby games.
Even with "just squeaking in" Ultra Sword and some RtD music; he kinda has to face the situation of the series for Smash 5 if he's still director

 

[Coricus]

RIOT games. Please. Get a balance team that understands basic logic

Please.


>People buying Birthright
>Not buying Conquest
>Siding with people they never met.
>Playing casual mode

top kek

Kek nothing, if there's two things I'm a sucker for it's an easy ride and playing the nice guy.

That said, I'm gonna pop Revelations onto it ASAP once I get it though, because I'm pretty darn sure I'm not gonna respect either side. We all know Hoshida's gonna have skeletons in it's closet, so I'm bailing.

 

[Luigi The President]

Considering the fact he's only had one role where he was actually important, he's about as unlikely as Gooey, Rick, or Adeleine.

I'm not sure how happy WhiteEaglePL will be about this...

Good for him

*Cough* Me *Cough*

(Also that Jeanne alt looks pretty sick if you ask me)

*Cough* Fight me *Cough*

So I made this a while back, but figured I'd post it now. I pretty much ranked potential Smash 5 characters by likely, unlikely, and dark horse. Even though a proper Smash 5 is far away, its always exciting to start speculation for the next game.

Spoiler

Mario Series:

Frontrunner:
Toad
Paper Mario

Darkhorse:
Daisy
Geno

Unlikely:
Baby Mari and Luigi
Kamek
Fawful
Nabbit

Wario Series:

Frontrunner:
Waluigi
Ashley

Darkhorse:
Mona

Unlikely:
Jimmy T
Kat &Anna

DK Series:

Frontrunner:
K Rool
Dixie

Darkhorse:
Cranky

Unlikely:
Lanky

Zelda Series:

Frontrunner:
Impa
Ganon
Tingle
Tetra

Darkhorse:
Toon Ganondorf
Linkle
Lana
Skull Kid
Wolf Link
Ghirahim
Vaati

Unlikely:
Groose
Fi
Zant
Ravio

Kirby Series

Frontrunner:
Bandana Dee

Unlikely:
Gooey
Rick
Adeline

Animal Crossing Series:

Frontrunners:
Isabelle
Tom Nook
KK Slider

Darkhorse:
Mr Resetti
Loti

Unlikely:
Other NPCs

Kid Icarus Series:

Frontrunners:
Medusa
Hades
Viridi

Darkhorse:
Phosphora
Magnus

Unlikely:
Eggplant Wizard

Metroid Series:

Frontrunners:
Ridley
Dark Samus

Darkhorse:
Sylux

Unlikely:
Anthony Higgs

Pokemon Series:

Frontrunner:
Gen 7/8 Rep

Darkhorse:
Sceptile
Zoroark
Blaziken
Hawlucha
Gengar

Unlikely:
Plusle Minum
Machamp
Garchomp
Hitmonlee



Fire Emblem Series:

Frontrunner:
FE 15 Lord

Darkhorse:
Anna
Chrom
Ephiram
Hector
Lynn
Sigurd
Leaf

Unlikely:
Tharja
Other non-lords

Starfox Series:

Frontrunners:
Krystal

Darkhorse:
Slippy
Peppy
Andross

Unlikely:
Leon
Pigma
Panther


F Zero Series:

Frontrunners:
Samurai Goroh
Black Shadow

Darkhorse:
Pico

Xenoblade Series:

Frontrunners:
Elma
Cross
Xenoblade 3 Rep

Darkhorse:
Reyn
Fiora
Dunban

Ongoing Unrepped Series:

Frontrunners:
Inklings
Chibi Robo
Chorus Kids

Darkhorse:
Henry Flemming
Karate Joe
Rhythm Girl
Arcade Bunny/Baito
Mallow
Dillon
Fossil Hero
Monita
Harmoknight
Elite Beat Agents

Unlikely:
Rusty
Barbera the Bat


Limbo Series:

Frontrunners:
Isaac
Wonder Red
Andy
Sami
Ray
Saki

Darkhorse:
Zael
Starfy
Captain Rainbow

Retro Series:

Frontrunners:
Takamaru
Balloon Fighter
Excite Biker
Mach Rider

Darkhorse:
Sheriff
Duskin
Sukupon

Unlikely:
Urban Champion
Bubbles

Spoiler

Sonic Series:

Frontrunners:
Tails
Knuckles
Eggman
Shadow

Darkhorse:
Amy

3rd Party:

Frontrunners:
Rayman
Simon Belmont
Bomberman
Banjo
Professor Layton
Phoenix Wright

Darkhorse:
Felyne
Black Mage
Steve
Slime
Crono

Unlikely:
Viewtiful Joe

Indie:

Frontrunners:
Shovel Knight
Shantae

Darkhorse:
Quote
YookaLaylee

Spoiler

Veterans:

Safe:

Mario
Luigi
Peach
Bowser
Yoshi
Wario
DK
Diddy
Link
Zelda
Fox
Kirby
King Dedede
Samus
Pikachu
Marth
Captain Falcon
Pit
Villager
Mii Fighters

Very Likely:

Rosalina
Sheik
Ganondorf
Metaknight
Charizard
Zero Suit Samus
Falco
Ness
Palutena
Olimar
WiiFitTrainer
Little Mac
Mr Game and Watch
Rob
Duck Hunt
Sonic

Likely:

Toon Link
Lucario
Greninja
Jigglypuff
Ike
Robin
Corrin
Ice Climbers
Shulk
Bayonetta
Pacman
Megaman

At Risk:

Dr Mario
Bowser Jr
Mewtwo
Wolf
Lucas
Lucina
Roy
Dark Pit
Ryu
Cloud

Unlikely:

Ivysaur
Squirtle
Snake
Pichu
Young Link

....What? Quote less likely then Shovel Knight?
Anyways, good list. Though you forgot Yoshi, and I'd add a few characters but that's not important.
I don't see how Mac and WFT are anything but Safe. Also, Jigglypuff in likely?? Same with Bayonetta; should be in Very Likely. Bowser Jr's at risk and Rosalina's very safe? A bit mixed up there.
Don't see how Ryu's at risk either. But, I can see the rest, though I'd like what I pointed out explained.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Yeah, there's a good possibility that its fake only because of the Story DLC. I think the Xenoblade X DLC is done, much like the 3DS Fire Emblem Awakening DLC, only lasting a short period of months.

 

[NintenZ]

Good for him


*Cough* Fight me *Cough*


....What? Quote less likely then Shovel Knight?
Anyways, good list. Though you forgot Yoshi, and I'd add a few characters but that's not important.
I don't see how Mac and WFT are anything but Safe. Also, Jigglypuff in likely?? Same with Bayonetta; should be in Very Likely. Bowser Jr's at risk and Rosalina's very safe? A bit mixed up there.
Don't see how Ryu's at risk either. But, I can see the rest, though I'd like what I pointed out explained.

*Cough* It's on *Cough*

Also yeah, Quote is definitely more likely then Shovel Knight.

I feel these are the indies with the best chances,

Quote (No friggin duh')
Commander Video
Shantae

In that order.

 

[Shroob]

I'm surprised no one's calling it fake due to Mother 3 getting translated.

Do you seriously think they'd announce something like that outside of E3?

 

[ChikoLad]

Good for him


*Cough* Fight me *Cough*


....What? Quote less likely then Shovel Knight?
Anyways, good list. Though you forgot Yoshi, and I'd add a few characters but that's not important.
I don't see how Mac and WFT are anything but Safe. Also, Jigglypuff in likely?? Same with Bayonetta; should be in Very Likely. Bowser Jr's at risk and Rosalina's very safe? A bit mixed up there.
Don't see how Ryu's at risk either. But, I can see the rest, though I'd like what I pointed out explained.

How would Rosalina remotely be at risk, while Bowser Jr. would be safe?

Bowser Jr. barely made it into Smash 4 as is. Rosalina was literally the first newcomer revealed after E3 and has appeared extremely prominently in promotional material for the game.

 

[Burruni]

Yeah, there's a good possibility that its fake only because of the Story DLC. I think the Xenoblade X DLC is done, much like the 3DS Fire Emblem Awakening DLC, only lasting a short period of months.

Not....
Mother 3 english coming like a year (?) after Mother 1?
That to me is the biggest red flag

 

[BluePikmin11]

What makes it a red flag, Mother 3 coming that early sounds plausible.

 

[NintenZ]

Though I just want to say that Quote is probably the only realistic indie character, as none of the other canidates are very popular in Japan at all.

(Though Shantae's popularity is rising rapidly)

 

[Shroob]

What makes it a red flag, Mother 3 coming that early sounds plausible.

I don't see it happening, sorry.

If Earthbound Zero was saved as an E3 reveal, then Mother 3 definitely would be as well.

 

[ChikoLad]

Though I just want to say that Quote is probably the only realistic indie character, as none of the other canidates are very popular in Japan at all.

(Though Shantae's popularity is rising rapidly)

isn't popular at all in Japan either. It isn't really much of a concern. If there is enough demand for a third party, they will put them in, regardless of where the demand comes from.

 

[NintenZ]

What makes it a red flag, Mother 3 coming that early sounds plausible.

Gotta agree with Shroob on this one, it's gotta be a big event to make it really feel hype.

 

[wedl!!]

BAYOBOYS

I'll be the best Bayo main this thread shall ever see

Shut ya stringy angel hair lookin *** up Luigi

I'll body you

 

[Chrono.]

Here it is.

This is the only reason Toei brought back Dragon Ball.

 

[NintenZ]

isn't popular at all in Japan either. It isn't really much of a concern. If there is enough demand for a third party, they will put them in, regardless of where the demand comes from.

Point taken, however because Quote is from a Japanese developer I believe negotiations would be much easier, not to mention I believe Sakurai once stated that Smash was a celebration of Japanese gaming.

 

[kylexv]

This Mario Vs. Donkey Kong title looks pretty decent for a free eshop title:

 

[ChikoLad]

Point taken, however because Quote is from a Japanese developer I believe negotiations would be much easier, not to mention I believe Sakurai once stated that Smash was a celebration of Japanese gaming.

is Western made so that's moot.

Not to mention the Western redesigns of and being used for Smash.

They also went out of their way to get trophies for Western characters, like the Rayman characters and Commander Video.

 

[BluePikmin11]

They revealed hype games like Fire Emblem Fates in early directs you know.
Just because Mother 3 makes for a good reveal at E3 does not mean it can't be revealed for a hypothetical February direct.

 

[Coricus]

So I made this a while back, but figured I'd post it now. I pretty much ranked potential Smash 5 characters by likely, unlikely, and dark horse. Even though a proper Smash 5 is far away, its always exciting to start speculation for the next game.

Spoiler

Mario Series:

Frontrunner:
Toad
Paper Mario

Darkhorse:
Daisy
Geno

Unlikely:
Baby Mari and Luigi
Kamek
Fawful
Nabbit

Wario Series:

Frontrunner:
Waluigi
Ashley

Darkhorse:
Mona

Unlikely:
Jimmy T
Kat &Anna

DK Series:

Frontrunner:
K Rool
Dixie

Darkhorse:
Cranky

Unlikely:
Lanky

Zelda Series:

Frontrunner:
Impa
Ganon
Tingle
Tetra

Darkhorse:
Toon Ganondorf
Linkle
Lana
Skull Kid
Wolf Link
Ghirahim
Vaati

Unlikely:
Groose
Fi
Zant
Ravio

Kirby Series

Frontrunner:
Bandana Dee

Unlikely:
Gooey
Rick
Adeline

Animal Crossing Series:

Frontrunners:
Isabelle
Tom Nook
KK Slider

Darkhorse:
Mr Resetti
Loti

Unlikely:
Other NPCs

Kid Icarus Series:

Frontrunners:
Medusa
Hades
Viridi

Darkhorse:
Phosphora
Magnus

Unlikely:
Eggplant Wizard

Metroid Series:

Frontrunners:
Ridley
Dark Samus

Darkhorse:
Sylux

Unlikely:
Anthony Higgs

Pokemon Series:

Frontrunner:
Gen 7/8 Rep

Darkhorse:
Sceptile
Zoroark
Blaziken
Hawlucha
Gengar

Unlikely:
Plusle Minum
Machamp
Garchomp
Hitmonlee



Fire Emblem Series:

Frontrunner:
FE 15 Lord

Darkhorse:
Anna
Chrom
Ephiram
Hector
Lynn
Sigurd
Leaf

Unlikely:
Tharja
Other non-lords

Starfox Series:

Frontrunners:
Krystal

Darkhorse:
Slippy
Peppy
Andross

Unlikely:
Leon
Pigma
Panther


F Zero Series:

Frontrunners:
Samurai Goroh
Black Shadow

Darkhorse:
Pico

Xenoblade Series:

Frontrunners:
Elma
Cross
Xenoblade 3 Rep

Darkhorse:
Reyn
Fiora
Dunban

Ongoing Unrepped Series:

Frontrunners:
Inklings
Chibi Robo
Chorus Kids

Darkhorse:
Henry Flemming
Karate Joe
Rhythm Girl
Arcade Bunny/Baito
Mallow
Dillon
Fossil Hero
Monita
Harmoknight
Elite Beat Agents

Unlikely:
Rusty
Barbera the Bat


Limbo Series:

Frontrunners:
Isaac
Wonder Red
Andy
Sami
Ray
Saki

Darkhorse:
Zael
Starfy
Captain Rainbow

Retro Series:

Frontrunners:
Takamaru
Balloon Fighter
Excite Biker
Mach Rider

Darkhorse:
Sheriff
Duskin
Sukupon

Unlikely:
Urban Champion
Bubbles

Spoiler

Sonic Series:

Frontrunners:
Tails
Knuckles
Eggman
Shadow

Darkhorse:
Amy

3rd Party:

Frontrunners:
Rayman
Simon Belmont
Bomberman
Banjo
Professor Layton
Phoenix Wright

Darkhorse:
Felyne
Black Mage
Steve
Slime
Crono

Unlikely:
Viewtiful Joe

Indie:

Frontrunners:
Shovel Knight
Shantae

Darkhorse:
Quote
YookaLaylee

Spoiler

Veterans:

Safe:

Mario
Luigi
Peach
Bowser
Yoshi
Wario
DK
Diddy
Link
Zelda
Fox
Kirby
King Dedede
Samus
Pikachu
Marth
Captain Falcon
Pit
Villager
Mii Fighters

Very Likely:

Rosalina
Sheik
Ganondorf
Metaknight
Charizard
Zero Suit Samus
Falco
Ness
Palutena
Olimar
WiiFitTrainer
Little Mac
Mr Game and Watch
Rob
Duck Hunt
Sonic

Likely:

Toon Link
Lucario
Greninja
Jigglypuff
Ike
Robin
Corrin
Ice Climbers
Shulk
Bayonetta
Pacman
Megaman

At Risk:

Dr Mario
Bowser Jr
Mewtwo
Wolf
Lucas
Lucina
Roy
Dark Pit
Ryu
Cloud

Unlikely:

Ivysaur
Squirtle
Snake
Pichu
Young Link

Note to self: If and when I get around to doing the same thing as this, I need to take a couple days to make a few diagrams to present the data.

These lists may be traditional, but I always get lost in them. Congrats on starting speculation, though!

. . .Nope, not smiley enough to indicate I'm just bad with big lists and am thinking how to improve my stuff.

:D :D :D :D

'^^

. . .Oh, ignore this.

 

[Luigi The President]

Shut ya stringy angel hair lookin *** up Luigi

I'll body you

Do it then, Febuary 3rd I'll have to take you out :^)

How would Rosalina remotely be at risk, while Bowser Jr. would be safe?

Bowser Jr. barely made it into Smash 4 as is. Rosalina was literally the first newcomer revealed after E3 and has appeared extremely prominently in promotional material for the game.

Where is the source on this that Jr barely made it in? I didn't mean to imply that Rosalina was at risk though my wording was poor. What I meant was that there's no way Jr will be removed, he brings an extremely unique moveset and highly-requested character so I don't see a reason for his removal

Point taken, however because Quote is from a Japanese developer I believe negotiations would be much easier, not to mention I believe Sakurai once stated that Smash was a celebration of Japanese gaming.

I'm pretty sure he never said that, itwould've been bought up a lot if so

 

[NintenZ]

is Western made so that's moot.

Not to mention the Western redesigns of and being used for Smash.

They also went out of their way to get trophies for Western characters, like the Rayman characters and Commander Video.

However those characters and designs (With the exception of Rayman and Commander Video) are now owned by a Japanese developer, so they're in the same boat as Lara Croft, in which they were created in a different country, but are now owned by a Japanese developer.

I also believe it takes significantly less effort to get the rights to a small cameo like a trophy then it is to get one to a full-on playable character.

 

[Shroob]

Do it then, Febuary 3rd I'll have to take you out :^)


Where is the source on this that Jr barely made it in? I didn't mean to imply that Rosalina was at risk though my wording was poor. What I meant was that there's no way Jr will be removed, he brings an extremely unique moveset and highly-requested character so I don't see a reason for his removal


I'm pretty sure he never said that, itwould've been bought up a lot if so

http://www.eventhubs.com/news/2015/...-greninjas-attacks-poses-and-moves-one-night/

Here it is.

 

[ChikoLad]

Do it then, Febuary 3rd I'll have to take you out :^)


Where is the source on this that Jr barely made it in? I didn't mean to imply that Rosalina was at risk though my wording was poor. What I meant was that there's no way Jr will be removed, he brings an extremely unique moveset and highly-requested character so I don't see a reason for his removal


I'm pretty sure he never said that, itwould've been bought up a lot if so

http://smashboards.com/threads/bowser-jr-was-almost-cut-from-smash-4.385005/

However those characters and designs (With the exception of Rayman and Commander Video) are now owned by a Japanese developer, so they're in the same boat as Lara Croft, in which they were created in a different country, but are now owned by a Japanese developer.

I also believe it takes significantly less effort to get the rights to a small cameo like a trophy then it is to get one to a full-on playable character.

There isn't any difference between licensing a trophy and a character. When you are making a licensing deal, you simply outline what it is you are licensing from the get go.

How difficult licensing is, is just down to the willingness of both Nintendo and the third party to have the character in the game.

--------

Mini Rosalina is so adorable in that video.

 

[Luigi The President]

http://smashboards.com/threads/bowser-jr-was-almost-cut-from-smash-4.385005/



There isn't any difference between licensing a trophy and a character. When you are making a licensing deal, you simply outline what it is you are licensing from the get go.

How difficult licensing is, is just down to the willingness of both Nintendo and the third party to have the character in the game.

--------

Mini Rosalina is so adorable in that video.

I don't really see how this factors into it, especially if they made him work. Plus, Ness was on the brink of being cut in Melee, but now he's still a mainstay and he's seen as one of the always returning characters. So if a character was only possibly going to be cut and wasn't I don't see how it's too big a deal.

 

[NintenZ]

http://smashboards.com/threads/bowser-jr-was-almost-cut-from-smash-4.385005/



There isn't any difference between licensing a trophy and a character. When you are making a licensing deal, you simply outline what it is you are licensing from the get go.

How difficult licensing is is just down to the willingness of both Nintendo and the third party to have the character in the game.

--------

Mini Rosalina is so adorable in that video.

I think it has to do with certain specifics that I'm not really sure about.

Like something about what that character can and can't do and other things related to that...

Copyright can be very strict.

 

[Burruni]

I don't really see how this factors into it, especially if they made him work. Plus, Ness was on the brink of being cut in Melee, but now he's still a mainstay and he's seen as one of the always returning characters. So if a character was only possibly going to be cut and wasn't I don't see how it's too big a deal.

Ness being almost cut in Melee is an entirely different situation.
Ness "as a fighter" was going to be kept 1-1 but have his model swapped for Lucas.
It was a change in name and nothing more.

Edit: Also there is a case for a unique high-request character being pushed out of the game by time constraints.

 

[ChikoLad]

I don't really see how this factors into it, especially if they made him work. Plus, Ness was on the brink of being cut in Melee, but now he's still a mainstay and he's seen as one of the always returning characters. So if a character was only possibly going to be cut and wasn't I don't see how it's too big a deal.

It means that character was low priority.

People acted as if Bowser Jr. was the highest priority and most likely Mario character, when it was in fact Rosalina who was Sakurai's first choice, as indicated by her being one of the first characters finished enough to be presentable for a trailer and later being ready for promotional demo builds on the Wii U version (even despite her being more complex than most due to being a two in one deal). By contrast, they didn't get around to Bowser Jr. until later. Sakurai stated that lower priority characters he had planned for didn't make it into the game, and Bowser Jr. was almost in that pile.

Recall how Wolf was almost cut from Brawl and now he is gone in Smash 4. Bowser Jr. is in a similar boat.

 

[Shroob]

It means that character was low priority.

People acted as if Bowser Jr. was the highest priority and most likely Mario character, when it was in fact Rosalina who was Sakurai's first choice, as indicated by her being one of the first characters finished (even despite her being more complex than most due to being a two in one deal). By contrast, they didn't get around to Bowser Jr. until later. Sakurai stated that lower priority characters he had planned for didn't make it into the game, and Bowser Jr. was almost in that pile.

Recall how Wolf was almost cut from Brawl and now he is gone in Smash 4. Bowser Jr. is in a similar boat.

Hey, least Bowser Jr. ain't a semi-clone.

*Flame shield activated*

 

[Icedragonadam]

Well there goes any plans for me to get Bravely Second.

 

[Burruni]

Well there goes any plans for me to get Bravely Second.

...Mind
elaborating?

 

[Icedragonadam]

Nintendo Censorship again. But not of the fanservice variety. Rather the literal whitewashing of the Tomahawk job class.

 

[Shroob]

Nintendo Censorship again. But not of the fanservice variety. Rather the literal whitewashing of the Tomahawk job class.

That's news.

 

[Burruni]

Okay.
Nothing that's gonna stop me.

 

[Strofirko]

Nintendo Censorship again. But not of the fanservice variety. Rather the literal whitewashing of the Tomahawk job class.

The indian that turned into a cowboy,isnt this old news.

 

[Shroob]

This reminds me of S.T.E.A.M.

I honestly thought they would censor Tiger Lily when I saw her originally for some reason.

 

[A Distant Demon]

Nintendo Censorship again. But not of the fanservice variety. Rather the literal whitewashing of the Tomahawk job class.

Is that it? Because that is old news.


Even then it's such a little thing to not buy a game over. Especially one as awesome as Bravely

 

[Luigi The President]

It means that character was low priority.

People acted as if Bowser Jr. was the highest priority and most likely Mario character, when it was in fact Rosalina who was Sakurai's first choice, as indicated by her being one of the first characters finished enough to be presentable for a trailer and later being ready for promotional demo builds on the Wii U version (even despite her being more complex than most due to being a two in one deal). By contrast, they didn't get around to Bowser Jr. until later. Sakurai stated that lower priority characters he had planned for didn't make it into the game, and Bowser Jr. was almost in that pile.

Recall how Wolf was almost cut from Brawl and now he is gone in Smash 4. Bowser Jr. is in a similar boat.

Wolf was cut, Ness was not. It balances out: Jr is not in any boat.

I don't see why Jr can't become a higher priority for Smash 5. He's only been positively received, no debates about him being a clone or anything, and he's seen a lot of play. Just because something may've obstructed him getting into Smash 4 doesn't mean that same thing will stop him in Smash 5.

 

[Curious Villager]

To be fair, being low priority in a previous game doesn't necessarily make you a low priority for the next one as certain characters can attest to in Brawl and Smash 4. Most particularly Toon Link in Smash 4 (Who ended up being one of the first post E3 veterans confirmed to return) but also Falco and Ganondorf in Brawl (based on their roles in the SSE).

I suppose it may mainly has to do with how well received a character is and their current activity in gaming that may have some slight effect on their priority. If Bowser jr ends up being a well received and popular character in Smash (Which he seems to be along with the Koopalings) he can very well end up being a higher priority for the next game.

That's just my opinion though.