https://nintendosoup.com/sakurai-the-next-super-smash-bros-could-come-in-10-years/amp/
I’m not sure if any of you have seen this but we now have a definitive time frame for when to expect Smash 6!
With this in mind I now find it hard to believe we won’t be getting a Wave 2 of DLC because I can’t see Ultimate getting no new content for approximately 8 and a half years.
Anyways, assuming Isaac still doesn’t make the cut if Wave 2 happens at least we know how much time we have to hopefully get Nintendo to remake the original Golden Sun games or even get GS4.
Of course I appreciate the amount of GS content in Ultimate but this is not the time to settle! We must be vocal to bring our series back to prominence!
Well I did the statistics and his claims of 10 years aren't entirely outlandish. Just a bit high. I sat down and logged which years a Smash game released compared to the console itself
- 64 - Console released in 1996 while the game released in 1999 - 3 years
- Melee - Console released in 2001 while the game released in 2001 - 0 years (this was an exception so we'll exclude it)
- Brawl - Console released in 2006 while the game released in 2008 - 2 years
- For 3DS/Wii U - Console released in 2012 while the game released in 2014 - 2 years
- Ultimate - Console released in 2017 while the game released in 2018 - 1 year
On average, Smash appears 2 years after a console gets released. It makes business sense as it is a great system seller to have in the early days. So we've proven that 2 years after a console launches a new Smash rears its head. In a worst case scenario it's 3 years but in a best case it is 1 year. But what about the console itself? For this examination, we'll look at the year difference between when a console debuts and when its successor arrives
- NES to SNES - 1983 to 1990 - 7 years
- SNES to N64 - 1990 to 1996 - 6 years
- N64 to Gamecube - 1996 to 2001 - 5 years
- Gamecube to Wii - 2001 to 2006 - 5 years
- Wii to Wii U - 2006 to 2012 - 6 years
- Wii U to Switch - 2012 to 2017 - 5 years
On average, it takes 5 to 6 for a console to release. 5 years and 8 months to be precise (we'll call it 5.5 for calculations). In a worst case it is 7 years but in a best case it is 5 years.
So what does this all mean? Using this, we can look at how the Average, Best and Worst case scenario stacks up together
- Average - 5.5 years + 2 years = 7.5 years (2025)
- Worst - 7 years + 3 years = 10 years (2028)
- Best - 5 years + 1 year = 6 years (2024)
Now you can see where Sakurai is coming from. If you assume the Switch for the rest of its life is as leaps and bounds as the Wii or NES, that means the console will be around for 6-7 years meaning it is at least 8-9 years before Smash appears again. The man knows what he's on about!
What does this mean for Smash Ultimate though?
Well the truth of the matter is that a DLC Pack 2 COULD happen. But it really hinges on the Switch's life span. As right now a new Smash Bros is between 2024-2028. And like all games they take time to develop so this is almost certainly the case. And there is something else we should consider. Development times.
- 64 - Development started in 1998 and finished in 1999 - 1 year (this was a time when Sakurai worked himself to death)
- Melee - Development started in 2000 and finished in 2001 - 1 year (this was a time when Sakurai worked himself to death)
- Brawl - Development started in 2005 and finished in 2008 - 3 years
- For 3DS/Wii U - Development started in 2012 and finished in 2014- 2 years
- Ultimate - Development started in 2015 and finished in 2018- 3 years
As you can see from Brawl, Wii U and Ultimate, you can workout that about 1 to 2 years (more to 2) from a console's end of lifespan they start work on the next one. Using that, you can see that Ultimate should have a lifespan ending at 2022-2026 3DS/Wii U covered that gap with the DLC lasting between 2014 and 2016.
This means that Ultimate needs to last at least 2 years more than their Fighter Pass currently stands (2020 to 2022). So a Fighter Pack 2 could happen. Maybe even more. But I really wouldn't expect them to go nuts. They have to finish Ultimate someday. But as it stands, there could even be a Fighter Pack THREE if the lifespan of the Switch goes on for so long.
In short, GET READY FOR A JOURNEY BOYS. This is gonna be a long Isaac campaign for Ultimate