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Sunrise, Sunset - Isaac for Smash Ultimate #GoldenSunday

Xenigma

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https://twitter.com/gamingintelcom/status/1057142301162520576?s=21

So more on the bandwagon for a Direct of some sort this week.
It seems likely that we'll be getting a Smash Direct this week if this is true: it's just over a month before release (the normal window for game-specific Directs), the Smash bundle is releasing Friday, and waiting much longer would only serve to raise the chance of further leaks as well as distract from the new Pokemon games in particular. I've got no idea about the second Direct: it seems a little soon for another general Direct, but I also can't think of any other holiday releases that might warrant one, and they did do general ones that month from 2012 to 2015.
 

AlliwantisIsaac

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Fanfic idea for Isaac's reveal trailer:

CG movie starts off with Pokemon Trainer and his Ivysaur in a forest fighting in a battle with a wild Squirtle.

"Ivysaur, Razor Leaf!"

Squirtle get's hit and is knocked out. Pokemon Trainer pulls out a pokeball.

"Alright! Pokeball go!"

Pokemon Trainer captures Squirtle.

"Good job, Ivysaur! Return!"

Pokemon trainer returns Ivysaur to his Pokeball. Pokemon Trainer turns around ready to leave, then suddenly, he hears a bush rustling.

"Another Pokemon? Charizard, I choose you. Blow 'em out!"

Charizard is summoned and uses his wings to blow out the creature hiding in the bush. Out comes some brown creature. It's Flint, a djinn!

"Whoa, what is that?"

Pokemon Trainer takes out his Pokedex.

"Species unknown."

"Whoa, I've gotta catch it. Go Charizard!"

Charizard let's out a roar, and begins chasing Flint. Flint jumps up in the air scared, turns tail, and begins running. Charizard unleashes some fire balls with Flint running left and right to dodge them. Eventually Flint exits the forest and enters an open field wherein a blond swordsman with a yellow scarf stands, his back turned to him. Charizard enters the open field, and Flint, in fear, runs up the leg of the swordsman, who then turns around and BAM!

Isaac challenges you to battle!

*Shows game-play footage of Isaac vs PkMn Trainer's Charizard.*

CG trailer ends with Isaac using Gaia. Text on the bottom of the screen says "It's Super Effective!" and Charizard falls. Isaac high fives Flint. The end.
I love this idea for cg...
Edit: It would also fool everyone thinking it might be pokemon related at first.
 
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PhilosophicAnimal

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That's great, thank you PhilosophicAnimal PhilosophicAnimal for sharing and spreading the Isaac love ! Maybe you'll want to try the games out someday ?

I wish they would rerelease Mario RPG here in Europe so I can give it a try.
No problem! I gotta give credit where it's due, and Isaac has some serious moveset chops. Consider me hyped.

As for Mario RPG, I thought they had finally released it on the virtual console over there? Not sure exactly, but if they did it was only very recently. If you get the chance though, it's a pretty great game. But that's no surprise hearing that from me, lol.

And I have played Golden Sun.:) Just the first one, though. I'm not too into the series--not through any fault of its own! Random encounters just aren't my thing. I do remember loving the combat, though. And the overworld puzzles. I can see why so many people love it.
 

SuperNintendoKid

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I HAVE RETURNED FROM THE GENERAL DISCUSSION THREAD, I MISSED YOU ISAACBROS AND I'LL BE HERE ALL MONTH ALONG WITH THE GENO THREAD IT'S GOOD TO SEE YOU GUYS AGAIN ^_^
 

Isaac for Smash Pls

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Yeah I'm skeptical about the idea of two Directs in one month just because I can't imagine what a general Direct would even cover. But with that said, assuming the Grinch leak is true and as many on these boards have stated it would make more sense for 1-2 characters to be revealed in a General Direct than to have 7 reveals in a final Smash blowout. Unless they want that Smash Direct to be two hours long (not that I would complain)
 

KoopaDasher

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Hi everyone. I've been reading your posts for a few hours now, and I just wanted to point out that the first Official Japanese Smash Bros Ultimate tournament is happening on November 2nd (9:30 pm EST), and there has been some speculation that the build they are using is very near the final build of the game, especially given the language they are using to describe the event. If that is the case, it backs up the prevailing theory that there must be a Nintendo Direct on November 1st, the day before the Smash Bros bundle releases, and the day before this event. Just my thoughts on things.
 

SonicLink125

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Yeah I'm skeptical about the idea of two Directs in one month just because I can't imagine what a general Direct would even cover. But with that said, assuming the Grinch leak is true and as many on these boards have stated it would make more sense for 1-2 characters to be revealed in a General Direct than to have 7 reveals in a final Smash blowout. Unless they want that Smash Direct to be two hours long (not that I would complain)
At this point, anything can happen now. There's still a ton of stuff to talk about in Smash that we don't know about yet. Like Single player mode, Online, Trophies, Games, Gallery, etc. Not to mention the changes for each character, how the last 7 work, and much much more. They could even do a 100 Fact-Extravaganza if they wanted.

Regardless, I'm hyped!
 
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Flynn.Scifo

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Hi everyone. I've been reading your posts for a few hours now, and I just wanted to point out that the first Official Japanese Smash Bros Ultimate tournament is happening on November 2nd (9:30 pm EST), and there has been some speculation that the build they are using is very near the final build of the game, especially given the language they are using to describe the event. If that is the case, it backs up the prevailing theory that there must be a Nintendo Direct on November 1st, the day before the Smash Bros bundle releases, and the day before this event. Just my thoughts on things.
If that happen to be true they'll probably reveal the full roster in this one and only direct.
 
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StrawHatX

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So if they’re going to use a new build of the game for this event in Japan coming up and that possible GS item is in it, then maybe Isaac gets revealed this week in a direct?

Sorry if this has already been brought up already.
 
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Metocles

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They were apparently taken the day before the Chad leak went live. There's actually a huge amount of speculation going around that MarioTehPlumber was the one behind the leak.


Quick summary of the current ideas.
Beat me to it, haha. Saw this as well and it's actually not a bad theory. Some things that support this idea are:

1. MTP is from Quebec and could have possibly written the LOL and "FU Nintendo" since it would be one of his languages
2. Chadondorf leak almost exactly matches the style that he does his videos in where he curses every other word
3. Others have pointed out that he claimed that a leak would drop on the anniversary of the ESRB one (in distance from game drop, not exact date) in a previous video
4. He has and is right now taking a pretty rude and firm stance against users like SpawnWave for thinking the leak is fake while thinking Banjo isn't in it. Which is the same stance he's taken in his videos from even before this leak dropped.

So, in summary for those that don't necessarily care to read all of that or don't know what's going on like a post a page ago said: There is a possible explanation to HOW the leak was released and WHERE it came from. That having been said, I still think the contents of the leak are bonafide and this doesn't have any commentary towards that aspect of the current state of things. I really don't think MTP would be able to tamper with anything between finding it and leaking it if this were the case because it would look even more messy which feeds into the idea of how smug he's acting now with the insiders and Banjo. Because also remember that this information is going to be verified or destroyed REAL soon. With everybody and their mother telling us about Direct dates and even this talking about two directs dropping. Even if they don't, you're hardly getting any fame out of this and it would come crashing down on you in mere weeks anyway if it were untrue.

Still team real all things considered.
 

KoopaDasher

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So if they’re going to use a new build of the game for this event in Japan coming up and that possible GS item is in it, then maybe Isaac gets revealed this week in a direct?

Sorry if this has already been brought up already.
That's the idea. The evidence seems to be piling up from multiple sources that we have a very good chance of getting a Direct that reveals a large portion of the roster on Thursday.
 

BravadoMan_13

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So if they’re going to use a new build of the game for this event in Japan coming up and that possible GS item is in it, then maybe Isaac gets revealed this week in a direct?

Sorry if this has already been brought up already.
We can only hope so. I believe we'll get a direct next week marking the month away from release.


BTW you got a killer Katakuri avatar. I like it.
 

Sabrewulf238

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About this MarioTehPlumber guy....

Wouldn't him taking these pictures before posting the 4chan leak make it more likely the Grinch leak is fake? (since they'd have the same person responsible)

Do we know if he has any artistic ability? (I guess he could be working with someone from his discord chat)

I'm just wondering how likely it is that this guy is our "mastermind".
 

SonicLink125

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Mimique just recently posted this:
https://mobile.twitter.com/MimiqueVEVO/status/1057155680543469568

Interesting to bring it up.

Beat me to it, haha. Saw this as well and it's actually not a bad theory. Some things that support this idea are:

1. MTP is from Quebec and could have possibly written the LOL and "FU Nintendo" since it would be one of his languages
2. Chadondorf leak almost exactly matches the style that he does his videos in where he curses every other word
3. Others have pointed out that he claimed that a leak would drop on the anniversary of the ESRB one (in distance from game drop, not exact date) in a previous video
4. He has and is right now taking a pretty rude and firm stance against users like SpawnWave for thinking the leak is fake while thinking Banjo isn't in it. Which is the same stance he's taken in his videos from even before this leak dropped.

So, in summary for those that don't necessarily care to read all of that or don't know what's going on like a post a page ago said: There is a possible explanation to HOW the leak was released and WHERE it came from. That having been said, I still think the contents of the leak are bonafide and this doesn't have any commentary towards that aspect of the current state of things. I really don't think MTP would be able to tamper with anything between finding it and leaking it if this were the case because it would look even more messy which feeds into the idea of how smug he's acting now with the insiders and Banjo. Because also remember that this information is going to be verified or destroyed REAL soon. With everybody and their mother telling us about Direct dates and even this talking about two directs dropping. Even if they don't, you're hardly getting any fame out of this and it would come crashing down on you in mere weeks anyway if it were untrue.

Still team real all things considered.
The only thing that makes me question if he really was Chadondorf is that the 4chan post mentioned 3 cut characters and several bosses. Also that he mentioned that we should give Nintendo more credit for making the greatest Smash ever.

I'm 50/50 on it, but it will be interesting how it will all turn out though.
 

KoopaDasher

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We can only hope so. I believe we'll get a direct next week marking the month away from release.
It just seems like a strange marketing decision to release a bundle and expect people to buy it without revealing large portions of the product they're buying. No full roster. No story mode details. It seems like they would almost have to have a Direct within the next two days, otherwise... they're just asking people to purchase a product on faith.
 

SonicLink125

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I'm confused, MTP would be the snapchat friend who took the photos of the video and spread the leak ?
It sounds more like he got a hold of the screen shots of the snapchat video from someone and then decided to spread the pics around the anniversary of the ESRB leak. I really doubt that to be honest, but weirder things have happened.
 
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BravadoMan_13

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About this MarioTehPlumber guy....

Wouldn't him taking these pictures before posting the 4chan leak make it more likely the Grinch leak is fake? (since they'd have the same person responsible)

Do we know if he has any artistic ability? (I guess he could be working with someone from his discord chat)

I'm just wondering how likely it is that this guy is our "mastermind".
MarioTehPlumber, now that's a name that I haven't heard from in quite sometime. If I remember right he had some controversy surrounding him some time ago.
#Mochiboyz
#Don'tIDeserveDonuts

He was definitely a memorable character for sure.
 
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TheSpaceKing12

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Sephazon still talking about how Isaac is weird. Reports are conflicting. No one knows if he's in or if he's not. I'm gonna place stock in the hard evidence in favor of Isaac's inclusion. Lean on the possibility that he's in the game.

I will brace for the worst (Assist trophy)
Hope for the best (playable)
And we'll probably walk with something in between (neither)

If he's in, i'll never ask for anything in smash again. If the worst should come, i'll go down with the ship proudly like the lot of us. If we're stuck in the middle than i'll scream loud and proud for DLC. Either way. It has been an honor speculating with you all as we walk into this home stretch.
 

Metocles

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About this MarioTehPlumber guy....

Wouldn't him taking these pictures before posting the 4chan leak make it more likely the Grinch leak is fake? (since they'd have the same person responsible)

Do we know if he has any artistic ability? (I guess he could be working with someone from his discord chat)

I'm just wondering how likely it is that this guy is our "mastermind".
Well, there's no evidence of him having any artistic ability at all and I sincerely doubt he's the mastermind, nor do I think there is a mastermind. It's too elaborate. I'm not even very sure he actually took the snapchat pictures. It was probably something posted in a discord that he saved. If he did take the snapchat pictures, it makes it maybe slightly more likely it's fake? I think the only thing possible at that point once you had the pictures is trying to photoshop out and in specific characters. And that's a task that is much harder than it sounds because it would have to have the same weird pixelation to it and he would have to do it twice. Both in different qualities.

And remember that we have names and businesses attached to this. It's looking like it wasn't Eric, but someone working in the same company that took the snapchat, showed it to friends in the discord he's part of and it lands in MTP's hands. I'm only pointing out that it's possible and this is all theoretical. It could be possible MTP has nothing at all to do with this and is masquerading unnecessarily.

Mimique just recently posted this:
https://mobile.twitter.com/MimiqueVEVO/status/1057155680543469568

Interesting to bring it up.


The only thing that makes me question if he really was Chadondorf is that the 4chan post mentioned 3 cut characters and several bosses. Also that he mentioned that we should give Nintendo more credit for making the greatest Smash ever.

I'm 50/50 on it, but it will be interesting how it will all turn out though.
Yeah, I'm not sure but it is something else that makes it seem like a coincidence. I suppose the poster could just be adding extra random things, but I don't know what to think about that. This entire story just gets more layered and weird as time goes on.

I'm confused, MTP would be the snapchat friend who took the photos of the video and spread the leak ?
We're not sure. It's possible, but no one knows right now. It's also possible that he's not the snapchat friend, but is part of a discord of the person who took the snapchat images is also in. This is somewhat more likely considering that I get the feeling that MTP doesn't actually have any relations to anyone that was actually involved in making the materials, taking the snapchat or taking a picture of the snapchat. Think about it. If you were the person taking the snapchat or a friend of the person taking the snapchat, it would be pretty malicious to put someone in jeopardy while also potentially knowing that person by leaking it everywhere and to everybody. The most someone might do is tell small pockets of people once it propagates out from being the people who simply saw the snapchat video. Loose lips sink ships though. Even if just one person let that information go, it's going to eventually land in the hands of someone who doesn't care about you, doesn't care about the fragility of the situation and doesn't care of the repercussions it causes.

This is mostly head canon, but it's something to keep an eye on.
 

Tetiro

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Saw all the rumors of the Nintendo Directs in November.

While I have good evidence for this to solidify the rumor, I'm about to leave for work. Give me an hour and a half and I will provide you lot with a proper (with evidence) information on this. I don't have sources but just good old fashioned research :)
 
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Flynn.Scifo

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Sephazon still talking about how Isaac is weird. Reports are conflicting. No one knows if he's in or if he's not. I'm gonna place stock in the hard evidence in favor of Isaac's inclusion. Lean on the possibility that he's in the game.

I will brace for the worst (Assist trophy)
Hope for the best (playable)
And we'll probably walk with something in between (neither)

If he's in, i'll never ask for anything in smash again. If the worst should come, i'll go down with the ship proudly like the lot of us. If we're stuck in the middle than i'll scream loud and proud for DLC. Either way. It has been an honor speculating with you all as we walk into this home stretch.
Be brave proud warrior the battle's not over yet. Next direct is probably our last and decisive battle, not the time to give in to doubt.
 

KoopaDasher

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What is Isaac standing on in the leaked image? It's not part of the stage, but it doesn't appear to be part of his render, either. He seems to be kneeling on one knee, but what is that odd green rug that he's standing on?
 

StrawHatX

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I’m new to these forums and I’m sure you guys have already talked about everything in depth in here, but as someone who has wanted Isaac in since the Brawl days here are my thoughts on his inclusion in Ultimate.

1. We know this game Sakurai is looking to put in a lot of fan favorites and Isaac ranked high on the ballot. So that’s good.

2. He’s already been in Smash before as an AT and I think if he were going to return as an AT again Sakurai would have already shown him off and not get people’s hopes up for him being playable.

3. We’ve had the Rathalos tweet that seemingly referenced Golden Sun.

4. This new item that was discovered that may be Growth Psynergy.

5. And the possibility he was supposed to be in the September Direct with Isabelle but was removed due to it being in poor taste to show a character who could move the earth after a horrible earthquake. (This is obviously speculation only, but I think someone said they had to change up the Direct but maybe I heard wrong on that and if I did I apologize).

Now Mystic apparently said he was pretty confident Isaac was in and he supposedly got in trouble for leaking information. I don’t know, I just feel really hopeful this time, but I’ll do my best not to get my hopes up.
 

Metocles

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What is Isaac standing on in the leaked image? It's not part of the stage, but it doesn't appear to be part of his render, either. He seems to be kneeling on one knee, but what is that odd green rug that he's standing on?
Isaac commonly uses Earth psynergy in the games which also includes creating vines, brambles and even bamboo. So it's really not surprising that he could be casting Growth or other common things from the games under his feet. There's further evidence that Growth might be an item in the game that was leaked by Nintendo themselves in the recent Bus Tour video Wendy's is sponsoring.

Metocles Metocles Let's not jump to conclusions but if true this guy is the worst.
Yeah, for sure. Like I said, there's absolutely no concrete evidence here and I'm not saying anyone is guilty of anything by any stretch of the imagination. Ultimately it's all not going to matter soon because we're knocking on the next and probably final Smash Direct's door. So all of this theory crafting is fluff. At this point, you believe it's real, you believe it's fake or you're just waiting for this damned roster drop to get here already.
 
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Xenigma

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I don't know anything about this MTP guy, but I think it would be crazy for this to come from a Discord and not have someone involved spill the beans on what's actually going on by now. I'm much more inclined to believe the guy is just trying to tie himself to the leak to get attention.
 

Isaac for Smash Pls

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Sephazon still talking about how Isaac is weird. Reports are conflicting. No one knows if he's in or if he's not. I'm gonna place stock in the hard evidence in favor of Isaac's inclusion. Lean on the possibility that he's in the game.

I will brace for the worst (Assist trophy)
Hope for the best (playable)
And we'll probably walk with something in between (neither)

If he's in, i'll never ask for anything in smash again. If the worst should come, i'll go down with the ship proudly like the lot of us. If we're stuck in the middle than i'll scream loud and proud for DLC. Either way. It has been an honor speculating with you all as we walk into this home stretch.
A week ago I would have agreed with being more cautious but that sprout item on top of everything else has absolutely tipped me over the edge. I don't care what all these unsubstantiated "insiders" are claiming, the evidence in front of my eyes tells me there's a really good chance that Isaac is in. I guess we'll find out for sure this week or next.

But again, if Isaac isn't in between the Rathalos tweet and the suspicious sprout that they somehow hid for all this time, Sakurai is just being a cruel tease to Golden Sun fans and that is not like him at all.

Plus nobody has been able to reliably debunk the Grinch yet. From what I can see it's just a bunch of dubious "insiders" who are suddenly coming out of the woodwork (where were all these guys when all we had to talk about was Verge and the Box??) with conflicting reports and possible misinformation.
 

KoopaDasher

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There's just too much that has been changed in the image for it to not be real. Nearly every character has been moved in some way, either shifted slightly or completely moved to a new position, without leaving behind artifacts. The edit is just too complex for someone without access to the original art file itself, and individual character poses, to have accomplished. Even at its low resolution you can tell this was not an amateur job.
 

Xenigma

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Morning! Any news in the last 8 hours? :dr^_^:
There seems to be a growing consensus that a Smash Direct is coming later this week, possibly announced within the next 24 hours. Beyond that, no real news other than continued confusion over the validity of the Grinch leak.
 

Sabrewulf238

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I don't know anything about this MTP guy, but I think it would be crazy for this to come from a Discord and not have someone involved spill the beans on what's actually going on by now. I'm much more inclined to believe the guy is just trying to tie himself to the leak to get attention.
The only way it would make sense is if the person who took the image contacted MTP directly on discord through a private chat. (and then he didn't discuss it in his discord publicly)
 

ZelDan

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So I've been playing Smash 4 online as I wait for Ultimate for a while now, and just recently I had the idea to give myself a "GRINCH" nametag while playing as green DK.

But what's really interesting is that today I had one of those Trivia screens pop up talking about Wendy's origins...

It must be a sign!
 

jweb23

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I’m new to these forums and I’m sure you guys have already talked about everything in depth in here, but as someone who has wanted Isaac in since the Brawl days here are my thoughts on his inclusion in Ultimate.

1. We know this game Sakurai is looking to put in a lot of fan favorites and Isaac ranked high on the ballot. So that’s good.

2. He’s already been in Smash before as an AT and I think if he were going to return as an AT again Sakurai would have already shown him off and not get people’s hopes up for him being playable.

3. We’ve had the Rathalos tweet that seemingly referenced Golden Sun.

4. This new item that was discovered that may be Growth Psynergy.

5. And the possibility he was supposed to be in the September Direct with Isabelle but was removed due to it being in poor taste to show a character who could move the earth after a horrible earthquake. (This is obviously speculation only, but I think someone said they had to change up the Direct but maybe I heard wrong on that and if I did I apologize).

Now Mystic apparently said he was pretty confident Isaac was in and he supposedly got in trouble for leaking information. I don’t know, I just feel really hopeful this time, but I’ll do my best not to get my hopes up.
Yep, pretty much everything you said is why we believe Isaac still has a great chance even if the leak turns out to be fake. Only time will tell and right now it seems pointless to put any stock into any insider right now.

Also...you’re a One Piece fan and want Isaac! I see you too are a fellow person of culture!
 

Gurein

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Been reading the last few pages, I'm glad you guys have put baseless insider tweets behind. Our fate will soon be revealed.
 

Tetiro

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Thanks for waiting everyone! Before I give the rundown on this evidence based on research I promised, I thought it would be best to explain why I have it in the first place.

In real life, I used to run a Nintendo group in the UK but due to mental health reasons stepped aside to focus on my recovery (I'm doing okay now!). I now only work the Discord. But as a result of my many years of running the group, a lot of discussions between me and the regulars occurred.

They had a thing of expecting Directs at unrealistic dates and it I decided to research into it and look for trends to bring them in check. Surprisingly there was. We've been predicting the months with realistic intent for a while now but in summer I upgraded it to find out the exact dates. We used September as our test subject and not only did it get the original date right but its revised date. We had accuracy! We also knew that October was unlikely and sure enough it was right too.

So we digitized it and made it into a functional Google Spreadsheet. To prevent having to do legwork.

Now onto explaining how it works! (it's a lot of images and text as a warning!)

You start with the dates of all the FIRST cases of a worldwide Direct in that month. 2 Directs in a month is always unrealistic to believe as it doesn't really happen often (not saying it can't!). The spreadsheet automatically analyzes them to find the day of month and the weekday.

Nov_Direct_Part_1.png


Using that, I then discover for each day of the month what are the dates for that day throughout the month and then also out of the pool of data, which ones have the highest percentage. That shows their frequency.

Nov_Direct_Part_2.png


We also find the statistics of the trend. The earliest point a Direct happened as well as the Latest and the averages. It helps give clarity.

Nov_Direct_Part_3.png


The data is then sorted in ranking with the highest percentage being the top pick while the bottom ones being the least likely. You can start to see the patterns when you sort them correctly.

Nov_Direct_Part_4.png


But this is only half the battle. We need to filter it. Remember we looked at the statistics? It's time to apply them to get our realistic guidelines. Firstly we remove anything from a day that has never been used (only Wednesday, Tuesday and Thursday remain)

Nov_Direct_Part_5.png


Next is the important one. As you can see from the pool of data, for the 1st Direct in each month, they have never gone past the 13th. So using that maximum value, you can filter the dates further. Notice how the rumored 1st of November date is there? Remember this for now.

Nov_Direct_Part_6.png


This next step is optional but only for those who want a minimum value. We do the same as maximum but for the minimum too (which is the 2nd)

Nov_Direct_Part_7.png


As you can see, the 1st vanishes! But only by one day. Isn't statistics and data fun?

What does this mean for the 1st? Well it is still plausible. Had the minimum value not been applied, it would have been in the pool of realistic dates for this month. It was only out by one day! So this rumor has actual solid ground. The best part about using the automated Spreadsheet is that it isn't random guesswork. It is data crunching so it is unbiased and fair. There is another part why and I have put it in bold it later in the explanation.

As for the "2 Directs in a month" rumor, I looked into that too and spotted some information for you all. It has happened before in November.

November 7th 2012 (Wii U Direct) and November 27th 2012 (New Super Mario Bros 2)
November 13th 2013 (General Direct) and November 27th 2012 (Nintendo 3DS Louvre)

There's a pattern here too. It may not look like much but if you expand the search to the other months it is there too. If there is a Game-Specific Direct in a month where a Nintendo Direct is a lock, the chances of two Directs was increased. Not guaranteed but increased (see Xenoblade Chronicles 2). It is that uncertainty that makes me only look at the 1st Direct each time.

But obviously why should this spreadsheet be taken for solidity? Well it has been far more accurate than any "leak" this year or the previous years (I went backwards in the data pool to find out if the spreadsheet had accuracy). In fact for this year, it only got one date wrong this year and it was out by 1 day. That was the August Smash Direct. The spreadsheet predicted the 7th.

Obviously don't take this for gospel truth. It is an automated spreadsheet so could be wrong! No-one is perfect, But in terms of plausibility of two Directs in a month, this one actually has solid ground.

But it all depends on that November 1st. If it the first Direct doesn't happen by the 13th, you can consider this "rumor" debunked as it makes it very unrealistic to have two in a single month.

Hope this helps with all your speculation!
 
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