Smash Ultimate Leak Discussion Thread

[Starbound]

Though I gotta be honest, I kinda dislike the way he is sharing this rumored information. Maybe it is cause he is gonna use that information for prediction bragging rights even though those predictions are not really an earned win. Whatever.

I think it has to do with him working in gaming journalism with a site that regularly gets Nintendo freebies and invites. If he came out as a leaker, his career as a journalist is canned and GameXplain likely gets nuked as well.

 

[Exalt4747]

I like Ace Attorney a fair bit, but why does PW get smash push? Is it because of UMVC3?

 

[papagenos]

I dont like pitting Geno vs Sora but I will say that Geno has consistency and history (history with smash) over sora.

basically geno was highly wanted for brawl and sakurai knew that and saw that and wanted him too.

geno was STILL popular with the smash ballot and sakurai knew that and saw that as well.

we then got the geno mii costume (with splash art as if hes a newcomer) we've seen several mii costumes become playable fighter (k rool/inkling/chrom/isabelle)...

i just think geno is far more likely than sora, at least for base roster, maybe sakurai is doing a deal to get sora but i think it would have been a later thing then when this roster was likely chosen (around the time shortly after the smash ballot ended and we got our final dlc) and so i never really have seen geno and sora going for the same "spot" in the game.

 

[Nekoo]

Wait, wtf

Is he ****ing nuts?

I mean...He's kinda the Senior Vice President of Square-Enix...So...Lmao.

 

[ChocolatGelgato]

I think it has to do with him working in gaming journalism with a site that regularly gets Nintendo freebies and invites. If he came out as a leaker, his career as a journalist is canned and GameXplain likely gets nuked as well.

This makes me think the shadow quote is intentionally not true.

He pretty much got caught red handed doing it, and i dont think he can keep affording to make these "predictions" anymore

 

[Jedisupersonic]

I like Ace Attorney a fair bit, but why does PW get smash push? Is it because of UMVC3?

It's probably because PW has pretty much always been on Nintendo consoles until the recently announced old trilogy bundle, it's commonly seen as "Nintendo" even if it isn't.

Kinda like Classic Megaman was in a way, granted it doesn't have as many fans as Megaman but still.

 

[Omega Tyrant]

While we know that there some Shady stuff for the Ballot because of the Datamine, it WAS the number of Vote for Final Fantasy's characters that made Sakurai move, he himself said so in an interview where 1/4 to 1/3 of FF vote were for Cloud.

A good 50% of the vote probably happened the first Week of the ballot, probably enough to get some early results and start plan.

A clarification on the Cloud stuff, Sakurai never claimed that those were votes in the Ballot (unlike with Bayonetta), and since the word "requests" was used and not votes, it seems like he was referring more to observed demand in general rather than actually counted up votes. It's also infeasible that the whole process of "observe initial Ballot results, contact the third party and complete licensing, start development, and ensure the game's version is stable enough to release" occurred in less than two weeks (patch 1.0.6 with the initial Cloud and Bayo data officially released exactly two weeks after the Ballot launched).

 

[Z25]

I like Ace Attorney a fair bit, but why does PW get smash push? Is it because of UMVC3?

Him being playable there just helps people prove he can have a move set.
Either way the series is really popular and Phoenix is a great character. And after being playable in another fighter it’s got people hoping he can pull through due to how likes the series is.

 

[TheCJBrine]

This makes me think the shadow quote is intentionally not true.

He pretty much got caught red handed doing it, and i dont think he can keep affording to make these "predictions" anymore

Then his Shadow prediction happens anyway

 

[Z25]

Also for the record.

I believe that we will definitely have Sora or Geno on the base roster and the latter DLC.

 

[vaanrose]

I hope Jon is right about Shadow for two reasons.

1) Shadow is one of my requested characters.
2) THAT FLIPPING BOX THEORY CAN DIE......

A Shadow echo proves the theory wrong. A Shadow semi-clone works perfectly fine with it.

 

[tveye]

Also for the record.

I believe that we will definitely have Sora or Geno on the base roster and the latter DLC.

It would make more sense to have Sora as DLC. Third parties get a cut of the game’s profits and if they’re DLC, Nintendo doesn’t have to share too much. Pretty sure that’s why Cloud and Ryu were DLC for Smash 4.

EDIT: I should include that with Cloud in, Sqenix is already getting money so Geno wouldn’t really change anything. Sora is Disney though.

 

[T3Z3R1]

The guy who tweeted "Yes!" is KH co-creator.
While this Tweet probably ABSOLUTELY mean jack-**** he's infamous for doing slip of tongue more than once... Like Confirming the Frozen World in KHIII a year before the public reveal at E3 before backtracking in panic, or the PS4 version of FFVII and hinted at the FFVII Remake.

So...yeaaaaaaah.


Don't take it as confirmation, just think of it as a support.

I mean...He's kinda the Senior Vice President of Square-Enix...So...Lmao.

At this point, I'm surprised that Square Enix didn't found out about those tweets from him. If they do, he would in serious troubles. Keep in the mind that there's NDA at play, if he does accidentally disobey it. The chance are, not so good for him.

Edit: If Sora is in, and then there's good chance that he did tweeted out that stuff, and if sora is not in, I believe that he misunderstand and just tweets "Yes!" at that fan.

 

[CyberHyperPhoenix]

He has been doing this for a long time now. Back before Mario Tennis Aces was revealed he made a post saying "This Direct is going to be Aces", before the Captain Toad Switch port got revealed he posted a picture of a Captain Toad plush with a Switch, and he was the first to insinuate Ridley being in Smash with his "Man all this speculation is too big" "So big" posts before the new Smash was announced, while he later clarified in PMs that he had a source that told him about the new Smash with Inklings and Ridley as characters. This goes beyond being a "master speculator" or having information for just one Direct.

Then there was that whole Final Fantasy "prediction" he made for the latest direct, where VII, IX, X, X-2, and XII just happened to be announced in the same direct.

I don't think that the other Gamexplain guys are in on it, because they always sound legitimately surprised when they do discussions for the direct and the same "out there predictions" come true.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Please do not censor any words yourself. Spell them out fully. The auto-center will take care of it.

On another note, I do think Cloud and Bayonetta were chosen unrelated to the ballot. The datamine shows a lot of important information. That said, I can believe Chrom and Dark Samus got a decent amount of ballot requests, and since they were easy to upgrade...

 

[Luigi The President]

At this point, I'm surprised that Square Enix didn't found out about those tweets from him. If they do, he would in serious troubles. Keep in the mind that there's NDA at play, if he does accidentally disobey it. The chance are, not so good for him.

Only if Sora's in Smash. If not it's literally irrelevant.

 

[Z25]

A Shadow echo proves the theory wrong. A Shadow semi-clone works perfectly fine with it.

Yes and no.

If we get ken as an echo, it makes no sense for our last character to be shadow. It’s got to be incenroar or the square rep. Because I doubt verge is wrong there and I find it hard to believe that the base games last character is a third party and not even a new franchise one.

 

[Luigi The President]

Yes and no.

If we get ken as an echo, it makes no sense for our last character to be shadow. It’s got to be incenroar or the square rep. Because I doubt verge is wrong there and I find it hard to believe that the base games last character is a third party and not even a new franchise one.

On it's own the Box Theory will still be alive though.
It dies when you factor in Vergeben.

BUT ONLY if you factor in Vergeben.

So objectively, though I believe Vergeben's truthful, it will be alive.

 

[Rayman001]

Sakurai would never give hints that cryptic.

And how do you know that? It's totally possible that he is or has been giving cryptic hints (like Pac-Man in the cloud), we will just never know for sure cause it's impossible to prove unless he states that they're true himself, but to say that he would never do that just seems... weird. We just don't know either way.

 

[Luigi The President]

And how do you know that? It's totally possible that he is or has been giving cryptic hints (like Pac-Man in the cloud), we will just never know for sure cause it's impossible to prove unless he states that they're true himself, but to say that he would never do that just seems... weird. We just don't know either way.

Clouds are randomly generated. Stop using Pac-Man as an example please.

 

[vaanrose]

Yes and no.

If we get ken as an echo, it makes no sense for our last character to be shadow. It’s got to be incenroar or the square rep. Because I doubt verge is wrong there and I find it hard to believe that the base games last character is a third party and not even a new franchise one.

I don't deal in whether something "makes sense." I deal with empirical data.

 

[CosmicQuark]

I dont like pitting Geno vs Sora but I will say that Geno has consistency and history (history with smash) over sora.

basically geno was highly wanted for brawl and sakurai knew that and saw that and wanted him too.

geno was STILL popular with the smash ballot and sakurai knew that and saw that as well.

we then got the geno mii costume (with splash art as if hes a newcomer) we've seen several mii costumes become playable fighter (k rool/inkling/chrom/isabelle)...

i just think geno is far more likely than sora, at least for base roster, maybe sakurai is doing a deal to get sora but i think it would have been a later thing then when this roster was likely chosen (around the time shortly after the smash ballot ended and we got our final dlc) and so i never really have seen geno and sora going for the same "spot" in the game.

I know that conflict. For me it's Geno and Banjo as they're interestingly connected--both essentially third party Nintendo characters from the nineties that have been wanted since Melee. They're both in my optimistic predictions for the base roster, but I partly wonder if both could get in, or if their superficial similarities make them too similar. I hope both get in, though.

 

[LetterO]

Well, here's my thought on Geno vs Sora vs DQ.

Sakurai knows how much people have wanted Geno. Sakurai wants Geno. Sakurai's brought back other widely requested characters like Ridley and K. Rool.

Series popularity should not mean a damn. Sakurai isn't gonna do a 180 and put Sora or a DQ character. because they're more iconic or more popular. For DLC? Maybe. But I doubt he'd not bring us Geno after bringing Ridley and K. Rool (who ALSO hasn't been relevant for a while, mind you).

 

[Luigi The President]

Well, here's my thought on Geno vs Sora vs DQ.

Sakurai knows how much people have wanted Geno. Sakurai wants Geno. Sakurai's brought back other widely requested characters like Ridley and K. Rool.

Series popularity should not mean a damn. Sakurai isn't gonna do a 180 and put Sora or a DQ character. because they're more iconic or more popular. For DLC? Maybe. But I doubt he'd not bring us Geno after bringing Ridley and K. Rool (who ALSO hasn't been relevant for a while, mind you).

Ridley and K. Rool are first parties is the thing.

 

[Omega Tyrant]

Interesting, if this guy is really lucky or knows some stuffs about games back in previous direct. When was this, and have he said anything else since then after Smash reveal at E3?

Here's the Leak Review Twitter thread about the pre-Vergeben Ridley rumor that covered him, where it shows the Aces and Ridley stuff.

 

[LetterO]

Ridley and K. Rool are first parties is the thing.

Sakurai went the length to make Geno a costume. If he's gonna reach out to Square to get another character of theirs, I doubt he'd not choose Geno.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

Simon is a weird one. He had a lot of support but it was a community without as much vocal outbursts like the other characters.

And my reason for Sakurai possibly choosing Geno isn’t just an easy way. We may assume Geno would get a lot of who replies, but would he?

Everyone who’s a core smash fan knows Geno, and Casual players likely don’t care enough as it be a cool af character once they see his move set. Not to mention the mii costume also shows people who he is.

As for Eldrich yeah the franchise is close to Nintendo but if we go by that logic, where’s Phoenix Wright? His games were basically Nintendo exclusives and he’s got a fair following. The truth is he’s not in(yet). So we can use that to justify a character.

This game is all about fan service. Combine sakurais bias with this and we can easily get Geno or Sora. Both are shock characters and would bring a lot of hype to different fanbases so it can go either way.

Ah yes. Eldrich, my favorite character.

When I say Dragon Quest is iconic, I mean it's iconic in the regards that it's been with Nintendo since the NES, just like Castlevania. You can't compare a classic retro series like Dragon Quest to Phoenix Wright. It's apples to oranges. And yes we can use it to justify a character because it's happened at least twice with Megaman and Simon Belmont. Pit as well.

Also, "Sakurai bias" is more of an opinion than anything. Many people likely didn't even buy the Mii Costume, instead buying the actual characters. I can assure you casual Smash fans have no clue who he is, and while him being in Smash Ultimate would certainly bring him into the public eye, if this game is truly about fan service as you say, it would make more sense to use established, overall popular characters, which Geno just isn't.

Maybe this is just me spitballing, but maybe the Geno Mii Costume was a test to see how many people would support Geno in Smash. What if it didn't do as well as we thought it did?

There is reason to believe that Sora and/or Erdrick are as likely as Geno. We don't assume in this house.

 

[Luigi The President]

Sakurai went the length to make Geno a costume. If he's gonna reach out to Square to get another character of theirs, I doubt he'd not choose Geno.

You are ignoring the point I made. Look at my sig; I want Geno.

But K. Rool and Ridley are much easier to get than any 3rd party.

Ah yes. Eldrich, my favorite character.

When I say Dragon Quest is iconic, I mean it's iconic in the regards that it's been with Nintendo since the NES, just like Castlevania. You can't compare a classic retro series like Dragon Quest to Phoenix Wright. It's apples to oranges. And yes we can use it to justify a character because it's happened at least twice with Megaman and Simon Belmont. Pit as well.

Also, "this game is all about fan service" and "Sakurai bias" are opinions more so than anything. Many people likely didn't even buy the Mii Costume, instead buying the actual characters. I can assure you casual Smash fans have no clue who he is, and while him being in Smash Ultimate would certainly bring him into the public eye, if this game is truly about fan service as you say, it would make more sense to use established, overall popular characters, which Geno just isn't.

Maybe this is just me spitballing, but maybe the Geno Mii Costume was a test to see how many people would support Geno in Smash. What if it didn't do as well as we thought it did?

Can't help but feel Sakurai wouldn't have gotten the rights to Geno for a quick costume to see who supported him.
Seems it's always gone deeper than that.

Also let's not assume few people bought the Geno costume. From what I saw, a whole lot indeed did buy it.

 

[Pyra]

Sakurai went the length to make Geno a costume. If he's gonna reach out to Square to get another character of theirs, I doubt he'd not choose Geno.

I mean, all it means is that it's likely he tried.
Not that it's actually happening.

 

[LetterO]

I mean, all it means is that it's likely he tried.
Not that it's actually happening.

Yeah, but my point is that if he were to get a SE rep, it'd probably be Geno.

 

[Luigi The President]

I mean, all it means is that it's likely he tried.
Not that it's actually happening.

Unrelated but this is me having a nice and peaceful sleep before remembering the cryptic "October 11th 2018" in your sig

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

You are ignoring the point I made. Look at my sig; I want Geno.

But K. Rool and Ridley are much easier to get than any 3rd party.


Can't help but feel Sakurai wouldn't have gotten the rights to Geno for a quick costume to see who supported him.
Seems it's always gone deeper than that.

Also let's not assume few people bought the Geno costume. From what I saw, a whole lot indeed did buy it.

Did they though? Is there sales records available for it? It seems like it's similar to the the argument "x did well in the ballot" in that it's built on an assumption.

Honest question/observation. Like I said, the Geno costume sales idea is just spitballing more than anything.

Yeah, but my point is that if he were to get a SE rep, it'd probably be Geno.

There is reason to believe that Sora and/or Erdrick are as likely as Geno. We don't assume in this house.

 

[TheCJBrine]

When was the Geno costume released?

I assumed Sakurai may have gotten it due to Ballot votes (though I do know he likes Geno and has wanted him as well; he even said he thinks he's perfect for Smash).

I mean, more-the-merrier if it was added before (maybe? idk I want Geno alongside the bear and bird and skull kiddo)

Also, I don't think Square is as stingy as some people seem to let on.

 

[Luigi The President]

Did they though? Is there sales records available for it? It seems like it's similar to the the argument "x did well in the ballot" in that it's built on an assumption.

Honest question/observation. Like I said, the Geno costume sales idea is just spitballing more than anything.

The problem here is we're both assuming things. I can just as easily say "but did they NOT buy it" in response to "but DID THEY BUY IT", see?
With "x did well in the ballot" people can at least go off of a lot of fanpolls. Still they should say "x, according to fanpolls, likely placed well in the ballot" but it can be built on more than assuming.

I suppose we'll have to find out.

 

[Pokechu]

Re: Shadow

If he gets in as a semi-clone over Tails, I'm gonna cry

 

[Luigi The President]

Re: Shadow

If he gets in as a semi-clone over Tails, I'm gonna cry

Oh man, hadn't even considered this before. Uh oh.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

When was the Geno costume released?

I assumed Sakurai may have gotten it due to Ballot votes (though I do know he likes Geno and has wanted him as well; he even said he thinks he's perfect for Smash).

I mean, more-the-merrier if it was added before (maybe? idk I want Geno alongside the bear and bird and skull kiddo)

Also, I don't think Square is as stingy as some people seem to let on.

It was released December 2015, so well after the ballot results were in.

 

[T3Z3R1]

When was the Geno costume released?

I think costume was released on same day that Cloud was released in 2015.

edit: OOF, got 'd

 

[Chrono.]

This makes me think the shadow quote is intentionally not true.

He pretty much got caught red handed doing it, and i dont think he can keep affording to make these "predictions" anymore

To be fair, it's not the first time he's brought up Shadow, he's brought him up in older discussions but as an echo. I believe this is the first time he's brought him up as a semi clone. That said, it was because of a specific question they got on Patreon.

 

[Luigi The President]

To be fair, it's not the first time he's brought up Shadow, he's brought him up in older discussions but as an echo. I believe this is the first time he's brought him up as a semi clone. That said, it was because of a specific question they got on Patreon.

So let me get this straight, this Jon guy's always bought up Shadow but we dismissed it?