Honestly I think its real but outdated or something because No Inceniroar is suspicious.
Or the reverse, Incineroar could also be outdated, just like Gematsu, or another possible theory is every insider is currently in on it to protect their sources/told to do so by their sources.
Honestly, while I have certain doubts, I still can't wrap my head around it being fake. The number of coincidences this leak would have to manage to achieve or pre-plan number nearly in the hundreds, and its very important that we remember that.
I'm going in hoping the first trailer at LEAST supports it. 1 of the 7, rather 5 uniques, are revealed, as they are all from 5 different franchises that are not yet represented in smash. If the first trailer can at least keep the leak going a few minutes in to the direct, I'll be super happy because the rest will be crazy figuring out if its real or not.
This leak is a literal example of "An untoppable force meets an immovable object". Both sides being wrong just make no sense, but I'm biased that the insider side is faulty.