Official Smash Ultimate Discussion

[ChronoKatie]

Sorry, but I keep hearing about some sort of Resetera post that people are starting to believe? Something about piecing it all together?

 

[JacobLeBeauOFFICIAL]

If that box theory is actually right I'll leave this site AND the smash community. That will be the last straw.

 

[Maxoxpower]

I don't care about Isaac or the others, just give me Geno and Banjo.

and dixie kong

 

[T3Z3R1]

Enough about Isaac..

Someone discuss this. It was posted on Sourcegaming discord by someone.

What does this mean? Does this mean anything?

Looks like it was in korean

can someone transtale them into english?

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Know what makes Verge's claim more fishy? The fact after being quiet for so long that this is the only thing he says.

I'm calling it. He's lying to screw those folks over after everything they put him through.

 

[Freaky Mutant Man]

...Oh. If this is real and it means 2 videos are private/uploading... box theory is actually correct... because one video will be the newcomer video and the other one the direct.

EDIT: ALTHOUGH there is the possibility of more than one newcomer being revealed on the same video! But that Ken/Incineroar duality makes so much sense that I'm inclined to think that's going to be it...

That's the Nintendo Korea playlist. Note that it only seems to have the Isabelle trailer and the 8.8 Direct. That would simply seem to indicate Direct + Treehouse (or maybe one trailer, separately).

 

[N3ON]

I feel bad because come Thursday there's gonna be a lot of crow-eating in the Isaac thread. :/

Apparently the guy who has yet to be wrong about Smash is now, conveniently, wrong about Smash.

Oh and also because no Isaac. But tbh that was always a plausibility.

Still better than Smash 4.

 

[Diem]

Can someone on team fake compile all the reasons why the leak could be fake? I'd like to compare what reasons I have for believing and what reasons I have to not so I can decide how hyped I wanna be before Thursday to make sure I dont get too overhyped and end up absolutely being crushed if the leak is fake.

Here are my reasons for not believing it. I could be mistaken about one or two things, though.

• Blurry picture. If the picture was clear, then we'd be able to tell if the artwork was official. However, because it's blurry, it can be suspected that it's a Photoshop job, and the blurriness is to hide that evidence. This is a common tactic of people who make fake leaks. And people have made more elaborate pieces of artwork for fake leaks throughout the history of the internet. And just to show how it can be done even on the Ultimate mural, here's someone's very convincing rendition of Bomberman. Now imagine someone doing that with a fraction of the quality and blurring the image all to hell. It wouldn't be too hard for someone with even modest talent, so the fact that the picture is blurry should be an immediate warning sign.
• The leak implicates a French guy by the name of Eric Bricard, who does work for a marketing company, but there's no evidence that he or his company are working on anything Smash related. It's easily possible that whoever made the leak could have looked him up and put his name on it to make the leak seem more legitimate. That might seem absurd, but stuff like this has happened on the internet in the past (can't think of any specific examples off the top of my head). People have actually tracked him down after the leak, showing how anyone can find this guy, and he's denied anything to do with it. Of course, that's what someone would say in these circumstances, but there's no evidence whatsoever that he's responsible for it, besides his name simply being involved.
• To put it in perspective the lengths some people will go to make fake leaks or other material to screw with people: In 2013, some guy spent approximately $900 to create a fake teaser site for Fallout 4. His primary motivation was literally because "Some men just want to watch the world burn," though he also hoped it would prod Bethesda into making an announcement (which they didn't, much like this leak). I remember reading back then that he also meticulously coded some of the source HTML code of the site to match Bethesda's sites and even had it hosted somewhere near Bethesda, but I don't know for sure and can't find any evidence.
• Too many characters. Sakurai said not to expect too many new characters at E3, and after Isabelle said to expect the rate of character announcements to decrease. Yet this leak is proposing five completely new characters and two Echo Fighters. That would put the newcomer total at 16, which is just one less than Smash 4 if you count its Echo Fighters. This is on top of all the returning veterans who needed to be redone. It goes against all the statements Sakurai has made, so it's more than a little unbelievable. Sakurai wouldn't warn us to keep our expectations in check if there were 7 new characters around the corner.
• If that information is so accessible that the artwork is in third-parties' hands, how is this the only leak to appear? So far all the true leaks have come from people with inside information. Yet some random graphic designer in France, and presumably other people in the company, have access to the entire rest of the roster? And no one with any inside information can confirm it?
• The leak conflicts with the information from the one other leaker who hasn't been wrong about anything Ultimate-related yet. Sure, Vergeben doesn't know everything--he didn't know about Richter, Chrom, Dark Samus, and K.Rool--but everything that he does know has turned out to be true. Even when people thought he was discredited after he missed those characters, Isabelle was announced. He's been adamant about Ken, Incineroar, and a Square Enix character for months. This leak doesn't have Incineroar, and a bunch of people are saying that Incineroar must have been cut, which makes very little sense for reasons I'll explain in the next bullet point. Not that Vergeben can't be wrong, but he's been right about everything he's said so far, so something that contradicts him should be taken with scrutiny.
• The only corroborating leak is the "Chadindorf" leak, which is highly suspect. It claims that certain characters were cut, but the last time characters were ever cut from a Smash game was in Brawl. Well, except for Ice Climbers in Smash 4, but those were for technical reasons due to the 3DS. Everyone else was only considered, but never worked on and cut. Otherwise, all the characters originally planned and worked on for Smash 4 made it into the game. Hence, Sakurai has said that Smash 4's development cycle went more smoothly than any other Smash game. And Sakurai has gone on record saying that Ultimate is just as smooth if not smoother, and he's even working less hours, so I find it extremely hard to believe there were any cuts or shakeups during development.
• It's too good to be true. Along with how many characters there are in spite of people's expectations (especially after the silly Box Theory), almost all of them are major. Isaac, Geno, Banjo, Ken, and Shadow are all huge announcements, and all likely in some way or another, but all of them being in the game at once? Ashley was once one of the frontrunners of speculation and support, and she was deconfirmed months ago. Meanwhile, Isabelle was announced. I fully expect some of these characters to be announced on Thursday, but I do not expect all of them to be announced. Not everyone can make it, clearly.
• Because of how desired all these characters are, and how many of them there are, it makes people emotionally invested in the leak being true, which will wind people up in discussions about it, which is the goal of fake leaks: to get people to fight and become divided. Many people are believing in the leak not always because of the evidence, but because they simply want it to be true. Vergeben got a lot of **** for saying Incineroar was going to be in the game because not many people want him, especially over any of the characters in the Grinch leak. Despite him claiming to have had it confirmed by multiple sources, and him being correct about all his statements so far, people weren't believing him because they didn't want to. I didn't believe him, either, even about Isabelle, because all the other confirmed characters were much more significant than either of them, and both Incineroar and Isabelle just aren't that requested. Incineroar wouldn't even be on the ballot in 2015. But then Isabelle happened, so Incineroar looks more likely. But Incineroar isn't in the Grinch leak, so people are more willing to believe that leak, because people don't want Incineroar and want the other characters.
• Chorus Kids and Mach Rider, who are only there because Sakurai has apparently considered them in the past (see the link in the previous bullet). But that's a little sketchy, considering that Sakurai's only words on Mach Rider were from a sarcastic remark before Melee, and he's never been mentioned since. Meanwhile, Chorus Kids have only ever been evidenced in the Gematsu leak for Smash 4 and an entry in the game's emblem database, with no evidence that they were ever actually in development. Otherwise there's no other evidence or reasoning to believe these characters will be in the game, besides people's notions of obligatory "retro" and "wacky" character picks, which, given Ultimate's tight newcomer limitations, seems very unlikely this time around. Imagine if either of these characters got in, but Isaac didn't. Sakurai has the ballot results, so he knows who people want.

So those are my reasons for being skeptical. I'm not going to say that the leak is definitively false. Crazier things have happened. But I just have more reasons for believing it's fake than I do for believing that it's real, even though I would love for it to be real.

This ended up way longer than I expected it to be. Whoops.

 

[Mutsukki]

Looks like it was in korean

can someone transtale them into english?

Both have the exact same thing written, so I doubt it's anything more than "This video is private"

 

[Idon]

*sigh* You see? This is what happens when I even put the slightest bit of hope in something. It's a shame too, because Golden Sun is such a good game.

Well, unfortunetly it is what it is. Better start pulling for Ryu Hayabusa and Dante for DLC.

Yeeeeeeeah, boi.
They're rad as hell.

Quick question, though
What's up with all the avatar switching?
You maining all these characters or what?

 

[Will]

Pretty suspicious for Verg to say that now of all times. Either the waiting line for Anonymous Sources, Inc. is way too long or it was a pretty sudden answer obtained out of nowhere. I'm not saying he's outright wrong, but it's just a thought. A big thinker. Doesn't affect its validity because it's already an engima.

 

[TMNTSSB4]

Enough about Isaac..

Someone discuss this. It was posted on Sourcegaming discord by someone.

What does this mean? Does this mean anything?

It means we going back to Issac and Shadow talk

 

[Rummy]

...Oh. If this is real and it means 2 videos are private/uploading... box theory is actually correct... because one video will be the newcomer video and the other one the direct.

EDIT: ALTHOUGH there is the possibility of more than one newcomer being revealed on the same video! But that Ken/Incineroar duality makes so much sense that I'm inclined to think that's going to be it...

One of the videos is likely the Direct itself, And i recall they upload their trailers soon afterwards?

 

[AugustusB]

I think this is enough excitement for one day.

I am gonna be off here til after the direct.

Whatever happens....it has been quite a ride.

The game will be in our hands soon enough.

My Predictions:

If Grinch Leak is real - One trailer showcases Chorus Kids, Isaac and Mach Rider.

Shadow and Ken get showcased.

Geno opens Spirits mode talk with reveal

Banjo ends Spirits mode with reveal.

If Grinch Leak is fake: I have none, and I kind of like it that way.

So long everyone!

Team Smash for Life!

 

[Will]

Yeeeeeeeah, boi.
They're rad as hell.

Quick question, though
What's up with all the avatar switching?
You maining all these characters or what?

Noipoi bends our well i'm only keeping this avatar for like another hour to tomorrow

 

[Cheryl~]

Thursday, please come sooner. I need my confirmation, I need answers and not from the Grinch or insiders!

Although I would prefer if the Grinch was right, he can leak my Smashmas every year if that’s our final roster.

 

[Jovahexeon Joranvexeon]

boy, it sure pays to not care about any of these rumored characters

It;s times like these that I'm kinda glad that Phoenix Wright isn't often mentioned in leaks.

 

[Waluigi is not getting in]

I swear to ****ing god if box theory actually comes to fruition.

 

[ChronoKatie]

Know what makes Verge's claim more fishy? The fact after being quiet for so long that this is the only thing he says.

I'm calling it. He's lying to screw those folks over after everything they put him through.

The only reason I would have to believe he is lying is because he HAS made mentions lately of having grown extreme distaste for the Smash community. Sure, he could be saying something to get everyone riled up and watch us squirm as some form of spite, but sadly I doubt he would do anything that jeopardizes his credibility.

 

[Deleted member]

Yeeeeeeeah, boi.
They're rad as hell.

Quick question, though
What's up with all the avatar switching?
You maining all these characters or what?

Oh that lol. They're my favorite characters of the Smash roster. I keep switching because I don't know which one to pick!

 

[Freaky Mutant Man]

I'm going to ask again:

Can someone please actually link ZhugeEX's ResetERA post? It would be nice to actually be able to directly refer to it.

 

[FooltheFlames]

I feel like we really will get up to 6 or 7 newcomers in this direct. Why else would it be so long?

 

[Mutsukki]

One of the videos is likely the Direct itself, And i recall they upload their trailers soon afterwards?

They're probably just private videos. So it's one newcomer trailer plus the direct itself

 

[Mellowy Yellow]

I swear to ****ing god if box theory actually comes to fruition.

I might have a temper issue quite honestly

 

[TheCJBrine]

If the music being delayed is indication at a new franchise, then combined with insider info, Box Theory is already dead.

And, come on, 2 newcomers in a 40-minute direct?

 

[uhmuzing]

If Isaac's an assist I'll be disappointed for sure. I wanted him almost as much as I want Chorus Kids, Shantae being slightly below those two.
My most wanted without a doubt are Skull Kid and Sora. If they're both in that's the dream roster for me, sorry to BK and Golden Sun fans and everyone else.

But just watching the gameplay footage being uploaded everyday though makes me more hype than anything. This is going to be a ****ing amazing game, casually AND competitively.

 

[KingBroly]

If Isaac is an AT, he's basically Ridley from Smash 4. Popular character, speculation dragged out for months only to be let down at the very end.

 

[Z25]

Verge literally remained quiet on the leak.

Now he wants to say Issac is an assist.

That ain't it chief.

I'm not even a huge Issac fan but no way would verge of all people not have known and said this earlier.

 

[JacobLeBeauOFFICIAL]

I swear to ****ing god if box theory actually comes to fruition.

I'll quit smash brothers all together.

 

[Idon]

Noipoi bends our well i'm only keeping this avatar for like another hour to tomorrow

Nah, I can understand you and everyone else switching to stuff in regards to neat noipoi fanart or events or whatever.

But like, Alastor's had 6 different Smash Ultimate renders as his avi within the past 24 hours. It's weird.

 

[TreeBranch]

There's so much evidence for the leak being real and for being fake, I just can't come to a solid conclusion. I think we're just gonna have to wait it out, and maybe temper our expectations a bit. Earlier today, I was really confident it was real, and while I still believe, I think it'd be good for everyone to try and come to terms with every possible outcome here.

 

[Diem]

I feel bad because come Thursday there's gonna be a lot of crow-eating in the Isaac thread. :/

Apparently the guy who has yet to be wrong about Smash is now, conveniently, wrong about Smash.

Oh and also because no Isaac. But tbh that was always a plausibility.

Still better than Smash 4.

Like I just mentioned in my bigass post, Vergeben hasn't been incorrect in any of his statements, but his statements have not reflected the full scope of what's in the game. He got Simon and Isabelle after E3, but wasn't aware of Richter, Chrom, Dark Samus, King K. Rool, or any of the other content mentioned in the August leak.

So it's possible that there's more he doesn't know. And given that the weird unknown item in that one video might be from Golden Sun, I think there's hope. I don't care about Isaac myself, but I care about him for all your sakes.

 

[mezbomber]

"Putting the pieces together" might be referencing Tetris. I want a Tetris stage or AT

 

[Potato_]

Isaac fans, I'd say be ready for disappointment but don't lose hope completely.

There's always the possibility that Vergeben is mistaken, as for now he is the only insider to have outright stated Isaac is an AT.

Is it unlikely? I'd say so, but it for sure isn't impossible.

 

[Naiko3232]

Well, so Sakurai waited to the last direct to put one of the most requested characters as an assist trophy? i dont know, it doesnt seem right...
In my opinion he would be deconfirmed in the first E3, no way he will wait until now to reveal something that will dissapoint for sure.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Your main’s franchise gets its own smash bros styled game with 12 fighters. Who would be in?

Mario Franchise:
Mario
Luigi
Peach
Daisy
Wario
Waluigi
Bowser
Bowser Jr.
Toad
Rosalina
Yoshi
Geno

For me:
Link
Zelda/Sheik
Ganondorf
Midna
Skull Kid
Ghirahim
Urbosa
Impa
Young Link (Mask transformations)
Tetra

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/77149243/911491767

Pack it up, Verg just said Isaac is assist

Well...I was always tram real, but now it’s interesting... Vergy def had info, so now I’m wondering where this’ll go.

I’m not really hyped or not about the leaked characters (I got Squirtle, K. Rool and Riddles, and I doubt my other favorites are coming) so I don’t know, but if this were fake...

The salt would flow.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

The only reason I would have to believe he is lying is because he HAS made mentions lately of having grown extreme distaste for the Smash community. Sure, he could be saying something to get everyone riled up and watch us squirm as some form of spite, but sadly I doubt he would do anything that jeopardizes his credibility.

But after being quiet for so long why would that be the first thing to say?

I dunno I still feel he's trying to get back at everyone.

 

[ZephyrZ]

While people can believe what they want, "compression issues" is not what explains the background inconsistencies. They're used for a hanger, probably with a lightbox, and the mural is different either because a) by reducing background noise, the characters pop out more or b) as was suggested a few days ago, these are plans with placeholder art to get a rough idea of how to assemble the final product. The image does not look like it would be used for a presentation or website mural as it's often compared to.

Doesn't mean it's true, but I felt that was a sufficient explanation for me. Really, the only thing that makes me doubt this leak are the insiders. And when I have a lot of evidence on one hand, and word of mouth (however credible) on the other, I'm hedging my bets on the former.

Neither of these explanations explain why those changes are only really in places that are blocked off and hidden from view in the regular mural.

 

[Starbound]

Be careful tho.
The only things he said was that "people were finally putting pieces together" in the Speculation thread of ResetEra.

Meaning they're very ****ing close to get it right-

People just made that connection to the post that Starbound is referencing.

Relevant posts for Luigi The President :

"putting the pieces together
This was in reference to people compiling the list I posted earlier. I'm still looking for the post that compiled it, but here are two posts from ZhugeEX that prove my point.

And a bonus,
"Not those pieces" - in reference to Banjo-Kazooie jiggys

 

[Will]

I'll quit smash brothers all together.

Can I use your 60 dollars then?