I used some long train rides to think about the leak and my stance on it this weekend... I especially tried to seperate my emotional wants from the rational facts.
My first conclusion is, there is definetly bias for the leak to be true, myself included. Of course, it is human nature to more easily accept facts, that strengthen your own wants and believes, in this case, for the majority of people it is definetly more hype to get 7 more characters, let alone some fan favourites, instead of 2, maybe 3 including Ken and Incineraor... This is also heavily boosted by the information draught and more and more heated discussions about box theory before the leak. You can easily see that bias, if you turn the argument around: If the box pattern would suggest 7 more fighters instead of 2, people would still be all over it, and if the Grinch leak only had Ken and Incineroar on the banner, people would have easily dismissed it as the final roster.
That said, there are still arguments for and against the leak, that, for me, haven't been eliminated:
For
- the circumstances (pictures with work environment, the accidently (?) revealed name, the companies he worked for) are very peculiar and makes this much more compelling than other picture leaks, let alone text leaks
- the character arts and poses are very interesting and unique, espacially Isaac (kneeling, using growth, with djinn) and Chorus Kids (literally noone has ever thought of including the conductor), also, as far as I know, the character arts haven't been found as being based on already existing ones, which was a surefire way to prove leaks wrong in the past
- some insiders believe it is true
Against
- the backround discrepancies, although some peole tried to explained that away, it still seems fishy to me. Again, if you turn this argument around and the backround woul exactly match the banner after Isabelle, people would have definetly used it to prove the leak is real...
- the reveal timeline, 7 characters definetly feels too much to reveal in 1 month, also why not reveal 1 or 2 in october, if there is still 7 left
- 7 more characters (16 new overall) goes completely against several statements Sakurai made (don't expect to many new figthers, a few more to announce before K.Rool and Isabelle, have gone a little bit overboard with the fighter reveals in an interview)
- Incineroar missing, Vergeben (and other insiders) are still adamant about him being in, the explanations for him missing don't really convince me
- many insiders believe it is fake
So, my conclusion to this is, that I'm still undecided, leaning a little bit over to the fake side right now. The only thing that seems highly likely to me is Ken being in, time will tell about the rest.
Sorry for the wall of text, just had to get this out of my system...