Official Smash Ultimate Discussion

[TheSmasher916]

For God's sake we need this direct already, the community is getting way too heated over something that will be proven/disproved concretley within a couple weeks tops... I do have some thoughts on recent developments though.I

Firstly, I do think we need to treat these "insiders" or whatever you'd like to call them with respect, and the lashing out seen thus far can get repulsive. These people at the end of the day are just trying to give us information to the best of their ability without outing anyone. However I also don't necessarily blame some people for getting a bit annoyed by some who claim fake and provide no backing whatsoever. If there is a reason that you can't say anything for official/legal reasons then that's one thing, but don't come out on such a controversial topic with conclusive opinions and not provide backing or counterarguments. If there is a reason, then just stay a neutral party to the best of your ability and/or provide context and reasoning to your speculation to fit in with the rest of us. Again, I still find that directly attacking these people is far too extreme for something as trivial as videogame rumors, but there are two sides to everything.

Now as for my opinions on the recent stuff with the leak itself.

• I think the current company's lack of statement and deletion of the video is very telling. There's no reason they shouldn't be able to say something like Marina did if it is indeed fake, and that video wasn't even uploaded by them, so they had to go request a different company to do it. That part does add a bunch of credibility in my eyes.
• GameXplain's silence is... shocking to say the least. They are THE place to go for Nintendo coverage, and usually go over even the most seemingly insignificant pieces of news. Even in regards to Smash, they had whole discussions and analyses about the ESRB leak, and with this game covered box theory, blog theory, and other miscellaneous rumors, yet they have uploaded under 6 minutes of coverage of this thing, a channel normally notorious of overanalyzing things way beyond expectations. It's strange. The videos themselves have been almost entirely dismissive of the leaks, even having the title and first lines of the initial video boldly claiming they were fake. Its especially strange to see this from a usually objective source, and their activity elsewhere online has been seemingly shying away from it. They even removed the viewer question segment from the most recent edition to their stream that always features this segment. Next week they are going to "hand-pick" some of this week's questions to answer. How much money says not one of them will be related to the leak? It's just suspicious to me, that's all.
• The new banner cropping stuff I don't really know enough about to take a stance. I thought I saw something about it being a version of the banner for the loop or something but I'm not too sure. I do think it is a bit out there to look at the single green pixel as evidence for Isaac, especially when the same people condemn others for critiquing the background, but who knows, I think we came full circle with all of that.
• While I do respect anyone who is somewhat reputable and claims to have sources (Vergeben, Mystic, PapaGenos, etc.), I feel like nothing is really gonna be gained when there's no concrete way to determine what sources are truthful or not, and is much less of a productive means of speculation than analyzing aspects of the leak itself. The image, company, story, and other info that could support/detract from the characters showcased is much more valuable and concrete than what any individual without any REAL evidence says, one way or another. The only thing we've seen from insiders that seems VERY consistent is Incineroar, which leads me to three possible outcomes (or the most plausible ones anyways).

1. The leak is fake and Incineroar is in. The answer that requires least explanation, is definitely plausible.
2. Its real, and Incineroar is, or is part of the bait that Bamco talked about releasing. This is what I'm subscribing to for the time being. It's weird to me that there are so many characters thrown around that not many can agree on, yet the one thing that just about every insider agrees upon is Incineroar. Bamco confirmed that they put false information out there to weed out the leakers, and given how many sources corroborate this, it seems like the most plausible answer given the circumstances. This also seems to be one of the main reasons that many insiders doubt the leak. Primarily or solely on Incineroar's abscence (which in and of itself is ballsy of the leaker to do given how likely and rumored Incineroar seems, if it is fake). It just seems fishy to me.
3. Incineroar was originally in, but talks around E3 with MS gave Sakurai the ability to add Banjo in the base roster, so priority was shifted to add Banjo, and Incineroar was (most likely) moved to DLC. I don't usually subscribe to theories of this magnitude, but there is at least some evidence to support it. PapaGenos most recent video explains it more in detail, so would direct you there for more information.

Overall, I'm still firmly on #TeamReal, as I feel there is more concrete proof in support of the leak. The only slightly damning evidence against it I've seen is some of the background stuff, but even then I think the evidence towards it's validity is more compelling than that against it.

Boy, never thought I'd say I miss arguing over furniture...

 

[Kuraudo]

BECAUSE THE MURAL IS FAKE.

This isn't that hard to understand.

Aaand we’ve hit a point where people are actually getting mad.

Go ahead and be on the side of thinking it’s fake (I am not faulting you), but drop the condescending/aggressive ****.

 

[FallofBrawl]

Not really though. Big Maring certainly has evidence going for it's existence. It's even got a blurry screenshot like the Grinch leak! It has to be real!

Please you know it’s not equivalent in terms of circumstance and popularity.

 

[staindgrey]

Yo if this turns out to be fake in the end then we will never believe anything ever again. There can be an actual Nintendo Direct with Sakurai himself saying "Here is the next character!" and we're gonna be like "Why should we believe you...."

What, the Grinch leak? Or did something else happen in the last 24hrs?

Because I haven't believed the Grinch leak since the fifth minute I looked at it.

 

[Dukeofdeath5]

Not really though. Big Maring certainly has evidence going for it's existence. It's even got a blurry screenshot like the Grinch leak! It has to be real!

Being dismissive doesn't actually make your point. Big Maring and the current leak is a false equivalency. Just cause you don't believe the leak doesn't mean you can just say "yeah but blurry" and have people take you anymore serious than the people saying it's real cause of the direction Inkling is looking

 

[Deleted member]

Maybe leakers would deserve more respect if it wasn't obvious that they're trying to piggyback off a popular game just to get more attention and that sweet Internet fame.

I used to say snarky stuff like that.

Take it from me, constantly spreading negativity won't get you anywhere. How about we don't make assumptions about people we don't even know and then cuss them out because they say things we don't like and don't confirm our favorite Smash characters?

Y'know the ironic thing? People would all be singing these people's praises if they all said this leak was real without question.

 

[Tree Gelbman]

Am I the only one who thinks Mach Rider is one of the safer picks in the banner rumour?

New Nintendo Retro pick vs. Banjo-Kazooie, Geno and Isaac.

Hmmmm...

I'd much sooner see Chorus Kids as assist trophy material because who knows if once Sakurai got implementing his ideas for them they actually....worked as playable.

They also don't have the potential point of reference action figure Sakurai bought. Unless that gun was for Geno, but that gun really doesn't look like his gun. It's near 1 for 1 with Mach Rider's gun.

 

[FixedFun]

Let's see...
Sakurai wanted to put Mach Rider in Melee, but he and the team couldn't figure out how to make it work. AT is the next best thing.
You can't put Banjo as an assistant trophy (AT), that's impossible.
Geno could be an AT, after all, characters like Waluigi and Shovel Knight are AT.
The Chorus Kids, are from a rhythm game, not easy to work with, if they don't work, they are AT.
Ken as an Echo Fighter sounds plausible since he the Luigi of Ryu.
Same thing with Shadow, though he is more like Daisy. Oh and let's not forget he was an AT before.
Isaac, maybe he's not as popular (I mean the games) as other Nintendo franchises, but he looks like an easy target for a character.
Incineroar, almost like Isaac, except Pokémon is a multimillionaire franchise. However maybe it's not the most popular Pokémon Sun & Moon character.
So... to sum up:
Chances of being playable
10%
20%
30% Mach Rider
40%
50% The Chorus Kids
60% Geno
70% Isaac, Incineroar
80% Shadow, Banjo
90% Ken
100%

What do ya think?

 

[ReeseBalaski]

Are there any other Assist Trophies besides Gray Fox that were cut only to be brought back as assists?

Because the argument for Gray Fox doesn't really hold up due to the fact that everything Metal Gear related was wiped from Smash when 3DS and Wii U were being developed. Since Metal Gear is represented again, it would make sense to bring Gray Fox back too.

I just don't see that happening with Isaac.

 

[Idon]

Pssh, it's gonna be Aleph, the one who can kill Lucifer, Satan, AND YHVH.

Yeah, but y'know.
Never-ending cycle of torture, death and reincarnation without hope of release, and all that.

At least Demi-fiend gets to get beaten by a bunch of cannibals (if that's even canon)

 

[Tinarg]

Aaand we’ve hit a point where people are actually getting mad.

I think we hit that point a long time ago.

 

[Tree Gelbman]

Regardless of this leak's authenticity, I have a gut feeling Mach Rider will be present in some form. Not only do we have Sakurai's tease with the toy gun, but Mach Rider was considered as a fighter for melee as the retro character before Ice Climbers were decided on. Whether we see him as an actual fighter or assist is up in the air at this point, though.

Assist trophy fighters have much less detailed elements and models. If the gun was purchased for reference with Mach Rider? It wasn't purchased to make him/her an assist trophy.

 

[Gameboi834]

Assist trophy fighters have much less detailed elements and models. If the gun was purchased for reference with Mach Rider? It wasn't purchased to make him/her an assist trophy.

Alucard is less detailed than Kirby or Pichu?

 

[Dukeofdeath5]

Let's see...
Sakurai wanted to put Mach Rider in Melee, but he and the team couldn't figure out how to make it work. AT is the next best thing.
You can't put Banjo as an assistant trophy (AT), that's impossible.
Geno could be an AT, after all, characters like Waluigi and Shovel Knight are AT.
The Chorus Kids, are from a rhythm game, not easy to work with, if they don't work, they are AT.
Ken as an Echo Fighter sounds plausible since he the Luigi of Ryu.
Same thing with Shadow, though he is more like Daisy. Oh and let's not forget he was an AT before.
Isaac, maybe he's not as popular (I mean the games) as other Nintendo franchises, but he looks like an easy target for a character.
Incineroar, almost like Isaac, except Pokémon is a multimillionaire franchise. However maybe it's not the most popular Pokémon Sun & Moon character.
So... to sum up:
Chances of being playable
10%
20%
30% Mach Rider
40%
50% The Chorus Kids
60% Geno
70% Isaac, Incineroar
80% Shadow, Banjo
90% Ken
100%

What do ya think?

You're sleeping on Ken he's 110%

 

[Sweddy]

For God's sake we need this direct already, the community is getting way too heated over something that will be proven/disproved concretley within a couple weeks tops... I do have some thoughts on recent developments though.I

Firstly, I do think we need to treat these "insiders" or whatever you'd like to call them with respect, and the lashing out seen thus far can get repulsive. These people at the end of the day are just trying to give us information to the best of their ability without outing anyone. However I also don't necessarily blame some people for getting a bit annoyed by some who claim fake and provide no backing whatsoever. If there is a reason that you can't say anything for official/legal reasons then that's one thing, but don't come out on such a controversial topic with conclusive opinions and not provide backing or counterarguments. If there is a reason, then just stay a neutral party to the best of your ability and/or provide context and reasoning to your speculation to fit in with the rest of us. Again, I still find that directly attacking these people is far too extreme for something as trivial as videogame rumors, but there are two sides to everything.

Now as for my opinions on the recent stuff with the leak itself.

• I think the current company's lack of statement and deletion of the video is very telling. There's no reason they shouldn't be able to say something like Marina did if it is indeed fake, and that video wasn't even uploaded by them, so they had to go request a different company to do it. That part does add a bunch of credibility in my eyes.
• GameXplain's silence is... shocking to say the least. They are THE place to go for Nintendo coverage, and usually go over even the most seemingly insignificant pieces of news. Even in regards to Smash, they had whole discussions and analyses about the ESRB leak, and with this game covered box theory, blog theory, and other miscellaneous rumors, yet they have uploaded under 6 minutes of coverage of this thing, a channel normally notorious of overanalyzing things way beyond expectations. It's strange. The videos themselves have been almost entirely dismissive of the leaks, even having the title and first lines of the initial video boldly claiming they were fake. Its especially strange to see this from a usually objective source, and their activity elsewhere online has been seemingly shying away from it. They even removed the viewer question segment from the most recent edition to their stream that always features this segment. Next week they are going to "hand-pick" some of this week's questions to answer. How much money says not one of them will be related to the leak? It's just suspicious to me, that's all.
• The new banner cropping stuff I don't really know enough about to take a stance. I thought I saw something about it being a version of the banner for the loop or something but I'm not too sure. I do think it is a bit out there to look at the single green pixel as evidence for Isaac, especially when the same people condemn others for critiquing the background, but who knows, I think we came full circle with all of that.
• While I do respect anyone who is somewhat reputable and claims to have sources (Vergeben, Mystic, PapaGenos, etc.), I feel like nothing is really gonna be gained when there's no concrete way to determine what sources are truthful or not, and is much less of a productive means of speculation than analyzing aspects of the leak itself. The image, company, story, and other info that could support/detract from the characters showcased is much more valuable and concrete than what any individual without any REAL evidence says, one way or another. The only thing we've seen from insiders that seems VERY consistent is Incineroar, which leads me to three possible outcomes (or the most plausible ones anyways).

1. The leak is fake and Incineroar is in. The answer that requires least explanation, is definitely plausible.
2. Its real, and Incineroar is, or is part of the bait that Bamco talked about releasing. This is what I'm subscribing to for the time being. It's weird to me that there are so many characters thrown around that not many can agree on, yet the one thing that just about every insider agrees upon is Incineroar. Bamco confirmed that they put false information out there to weed out the leakers, and given how many sources corroborate this, it seems like the most plausible answer given the circumstances. This also seems to be one of the main reasons that many insiders doubt the leak. Primarily or solely on Incineroar's abscence (which in and of itself is ballsy of the leaker to do given how likely and rumored Incineroar seems, if it is fake). It just seems fishy to me.
3. Incineroar was originally in, but talks around E3 with MS gave Sakurai the ability to add Banjo in the base roster, so priority was shifted to add Banjo, and Incineroar was (most likely) moved to DLC. I don't usually subscribe to theories of this magnitude, but there is at least some evidence to support it. PapaGenos most recent video explains it more in detail, so would direct you there for more information.

Overall, I'm still firmly on #TeamReal, as I feel there is more concrete proof in support of the leak. The only slightly damning evidence against it I've seen is some of the background stuff, but even then I think the evidence towards it's validity is more compelling than that against it.

Boy, never thought I'd say I miss arguing over furniture...

Good post! I skimmed it, summed pretty much everything on everyone's mind.

 

[Chrono.]

It's either Mach Rider or Chorus Kids, if I had to take a guess.

You can disregard Ken immediately, for obvious reasons.

I'll keep dying on the hill that, if Shadow isn't playable, he just flat out isn't in the game at all. We've already seen returning ATs/items/Pokemon and I don't see any more old ones showing up (more on Isaac later).

I highly doubt Banjo would be an Assist Trophy, but stranger things have happened I guess?

Geno is kind of in the same boat I'd say, Sakurai knows he's popular and fans want to see him in the game as a playable character. He even gave us a Mii Costume, which to me said "it's not Geno but here's a consolation." An AT would fit the same bill as a consolation, except it won't be playable and fans wouldn't like that.

Isaac is weird. He's very popular, but his franchise is dormant. He was an AT that got cut (possibly due to collision shenanigans) and didn't even get a regular Trophy in 4. I don't think him returning as an AT is completely out of the question, but like I said before, we've already seen returning ATs and I really doubt we have more old ones under the pipeline.

 

[TheYungLink]

Yeah, but y'know.
Never-ending cycle of torture, death and reincarnation without hope of release, and all that.

At least Demi-fiend gets to get beaten by a bunch of cannibals (if that's even canon)

Just cuz Aleph came back as an amnesiac journalist doesn't mean he isn't cool.

But yeah, in all seriousness it's pretty f*cked up what they had to go through.

 

[SuperSceptile15]

We weren't going to get two new reps owned by the same company from different franchises in the same game.

As someone else mentioned before, Mega Man and Ryu in Smash 4. That is all.

 

[BlondeLombax]

Aaand we’ve hit a point where people are actually getting mad.

Go ahead and be on the side of thinking it’s fake (I am not faulting you), but drop the condescending/aggressive ****.

Welp, I'll be in the bunker with Butters as this passes us by. Anyone who wants in, please bring plenty of snacks, juice, and a karaoke machine.

 

[Akiak]

Have they said anything to you one way or the other about Banjo? I find it really odd that they won't seem to address Banjo directly.

Nothing else was said to me

I also don't know if I want to ask more questions atm, they've clearly said they're gonna post more detailed info when they have the time

 

[staindgrey]

Bamco confirmed that they put false information out there to weed out the leakers

Got a source for this?

That does not seem like something they'd make public knowledge for any reason.

 

[cybersai]

As someone else mentioned before, Mega Man and Ryu in Smash 4. That is all.

Base game and DLC is a different story.

 

[Dukeofdeath5]

Got a source for this?

That does not seem like something they'd make public knowledge for any reason.

It's been a known thing for a long while now

 

[TheSmasher916]

Am I the only one who thinks Mach Rider is one of the safer picks in the banner rumour?

New Nintendo Retro pick vs. Banjo-Kazooie, Geno and Isaac.

Hmmmm...

That's a little harder to say about a game who's picks are confirmed to at least somewhat be based on the ballot, to me anyways.

 

[FallofBrawl]

There isn’t a confirmed retro character yet, unless you consider that to be Simon, but retro characters are typically revealed very late (Me. GnW, ROB, Duck Hunt) into the cycle and Simon is a 3rd party (which would be one-off for a retro character).
I don’t think Mach Rider is the assist.

Mystic already says Isaac, Ken, and Chorus Kids are nearly sure characters.

Geno and Banjo are too big to just be assists.

Shadow to be revealed as an assist? Unlikely, he seems to be an easy echo to make and the fact that Knuckles was shown off as an assist trophy should mean something.

I don’t see how any of the banner characters can be assists.

 

[TreeBranch]

I'm still on team real, but there's much less tension for me now that I know even if it's not, Chorus Kids are still likely. I kinda find it funny how many people find Mach Rider more likely than Chorus Kids lol. The gun could've been used for literally anything, not just a character

 

[Tree Gelbman]

Alucard is less detailed than Kirby or Pichu?

In amount of details and the likes? Yes. I thought this was a common known fact. Assist trophy models just aren't as polished as playable character models.

Seriously. Put Isabelle's assist trophy model next to her new playable model. You'll see what I'm talking about.

Same for Dark Samus and even Chrom who just assisted in a final Smash prior. The difference is night and day.

 

[staindgrey]

It's been a known thing for a long while now

But known from what source?

It was commonly known the Earth was flat a thousand years ago. Doesn't mean it was backed up by anything.

 

[SuperSceptile15]

Base game and DLC is a different story.

Can't you at least admit that your bias for certain characters is clouding your judgment a little bit? If the leak ends up being fake, there's nothing stopping Sakurai from simply making Isaac and Geno Assist Trophy characters if he wants to. This is the same guy who prioritized a toy over many fan-favorite characters in Brawl.

 

[Waluigi is not getting in]

BECAUSE THE MURAL IS FAKE.

This isn't that hard to understand.

Jesus christ...

 

[papagenos]

Regardless of this leak's authenticity, I have a gut feeling Mach Rider will be present in some form. Not only do we have Sakurai's tease with the toy gun, but Mach Rider was considered as a fighter for melee as the retro character before Ice Climbers were decided on. Whether we see him as an actual fighter or assist is up in the air at this point, though.

THIS is like the most unreal part of all this to me (even more unreal than geno finally getting in, who ive wanted in smash for over a decade). Wanting to do a video on why I thought that toy was probly to model for mach rider was the thing that drove me to make my FIRST smash theory video so im absolutely beside myself that mach is in the grinch leak.

 

[xAquaCrystal]

In all seriousness though Mach rider would make the most sense being an AT. Since Mystic have not talked about any other character besides Mach rider. He said ken/shadow/Isaac/chorus kids/geno (idk he seem unsure about him) and incineroar are in. I know in some areas he seem unsure but from what I can gather he seem sure with these characters.

 

[Dukeofdeath5]

Am I the only one who thinks Mach Rider is one of the safer picks in the banner rumour?

New Nintendo Retro pick vs. Banjo-Kazooie, Geno and Isaac.

Hmmmm...

Well normally I'd kind of agree with you, but in terms of ultimate Mach Rider is an inconsistency.

Ridley, K.rool, Simon, Shadow, Banjo, Geno, Isaac, Inkling, Mach Rider

One of these is not like the others

 

[cybersai]

Can't you at least admit that your bias for certain characters is clouding your judgment a little bit? If the leak ends up being fake, there's nothing stopping Sakurai from simply making Isaac and Geno Assist Trophy characters if he wants to.

I'm not a big Isaac or Geno fan to begin with, whether they get in or not I'm personally indifferent. I just don't expect huge decade old requests to get back in...as Assists.

I have no horse in this race, the two characters I want most of all are Dixie and Skull Kid, and their fates are up in the air.

 

[FixedFun]

But known from what source?

It was commonly known the Earth was flat a thousand years ago. Doesn't mean it was backed up by anything.

Someone already posted the source, try to find it if you can

 

[Fane]

Wait are people genuinely relating this leak to some silly 'Maring' deal?

Good God, are we really going to skip grasping for straws to straight up insanity?

 

[Chrono.]

Got a source for this?

That does not seem like something they'd make public knowledge for any reason.

It was for Tekken.

以前も話したと思いますが、鉄拳プロジェクトが7年越しの豪鬼仕込み、ギース、ノクト、ニーガン等々がマイナーリークもしなかったのは、数年前にフェイクの情報をABCDE...と複数個用意して、各所に渡してリークするルートを発見して、情報伝達方法とフローを変えたからです。https://t.co/4ARKGdb4MC

— Katsuhiro Harada (@Harada_TEKKEN) October 28, 2018

It doesn't mean anything for Smash.

 

[Shroob]

While I hold no strong feelings one way or another on this leak, it's my God-given duty to make ****ty MSPaint memes in regards to **** like this:

 

[FallofBrawl]

Well normally I'd kind of agree with you, but in terms of ultimate Mach Rider is an inconsistency.

Ridley, K.rool, Simon, Shadow, Banjo, Geno, Isaac, Inkling, Mach Rider

One of these is not like the others

You can say that for every group of newcomers when it comes to their retro characters imo.

 

[Das Koopa]

Is there anything that backs Mystic's credibility? At all?