Official Smash Ultimate Discussion

[doomedtacox]

So for those who read my previous comments. I wanted to believe this leak very much and I was trying hard to prove it to be true. Vaanrose and I took all versions of the mural and started pinpointing "spots" that have never been visible in any version (when characters get moved around, some new spots get revealed and some new spots get obscured, but some spots are obscured in every single version) and then compared those spots in the leak to the E3. In every single case, they were different. In fact, as far as I could tell, every place where the leak differs to the E3 mural is exactly a place that has been obscured in every version.

This leads me to believe that this leak is probably fake. Vaanrose showed me how easy it is to cut a character and have photoshop fill in the blank space for you with an appropriate looking space.

My theory, that I can prove by doing it myself, is that whoever made the leak basically took all previous versions of the poster, cut all characters from each version and then combined all what he had. He then either had photoshop fill in the blank spaces left, or filled him out himself (these are all the spaces that are just wrong).

I myself found 7 different inconsistencies in this way that Vaanrose had not previously listed (so add those to the list he has already provided).

I thought people already came up with reasons the cloudd were different and vaanrose agreed that they're possible? His main conern was a rock in the bottom right I think.

 

[FixedFun]

"My definition of a few and not too many changes every day, so should yours"

basically the entirety of Ultimate speculation

To be fair, we should quote Sakurai in his native language:


「ファイターが総出演することを最大の目標に、
しているので新しいファイター追加についてはあんまり期待してないなと思っています」

"The maximum goal is to put all fighters,
So do not expect much new fighter additions."

He mean it...

 

[SoccerStar9001]

While I would be happy if this was true, I am leaning towards team fake to be cautious as well as having the disbelief that Banjo is in Smash.

God I wish we have a direct.

 

[amazonevan19]

Smash ad went up on Nintendo's YouTube today.

Nothing really of interest, just curious timing given the leak, for this random ad to conveniently appear. Maybe it was already planned for upload today but idk...I sense rumblings are afoot because of the leak.

 

[Z25]

So for those who read my previous comments. I wanted to believe this leak very much and I was trying hard to prove it to be true. Vaanrose and I took all versions of the mural and started pinpointing "spots" that have never been visible in any version (when characters get moved around, some new spots get revealed and some new spots get obscured, but some spots are obscured in every single version) and then compared those spots in the leak to the E3. In every single case, they were different. In fact, as far as I could tell, every place where the leak differs to the E3 mural is exactly a place that has been obscured in every version.

This leads me to believe that this leak is probably fake. Vaanrose showed me how easy it is to cut a character and have photoshop fill in the blank space for you with an appropriate looking space.

My theory, that I can prove by doing it myself, is that whoever made the leak basically took all previous versions of the poster, cut all characters from each version and then combined all what he had. He then either had photoshop fill in the blank spaces left, or filled him out himself (these are all the spaces that are just wrong).

I myself found 7 different inconsistencies in this way that Vaanrose had not previously listed (so add those to the list he has already provided).

These issues are worth considering but at the same time Snapchat ****ed the video so hard in compressions that we could easily be misseing things.

Regardless of the background errors. I find it highly unlikely the leaker thought to:

Give shadow a pose that’s just like his artwork throughout his games

Make marshal the center of chorus kids(hell even put them here to begin with if fake)

Added Mach rider with arendwr that clearly takes from the old and new for both them and the bikes no leaker has ever been able to fake a render that way. They always choose modern looks and mess something up.

Issac having a dinjin is also something I find incredibly hard to believe someone added if fake, especially the plant life.

The character models are so unique and have too many intricate and well thought out details for someone to initially fake this.

Also no fake leaker is ballsy enough to leave Incenroar out.

Not to mention that the background shows us the image is printed out for display in stores overhead. Which i can guarantee you no one with a job that had access to this would think “yeah let’s make overhead 360 posters like game stores that will make this stand out!”

Then there’s stuff like how Marth was moved so he doesn’t block roy.

And as much as people want to refute it. No way did anyone make grinch renders of all things to make their fake seem legitimate. There is no logical conclusion to come to that.

Could it be fake? Sure, is the background off? A little. But Nintendo’s messed up minior things before with art design so the background changing or getting move around isn’t too unlikely imo.

Honestly there’s too much thought and effort put into this for any one person to come up with this elaborate leak imo. It bears so much resemblance to past real leaks, has strong backing and just makes sense.

It’s why I’m staying team real for this.

Also I find it unlikely that if someone made this they would not be boasting their ego right about now. No faker can resist that. We never have a day where a big leak like this that’s fake goes unclaimed.

Palutena is the closest thing. And no one really cared about that leak. They were like “neat we already knew Sakurai bias was gonna add her though”. It didn’t spread like wildfire like this and it had one character, this is seven. If someone put all this time and effort to fake it, I can’t see them not boasting like their a god about how great their fake was by now.

Again I’ll acept if it’s fake but it’s just too real to me

 

[Chiroz]

I can feel my heart breaking...

But on a serious note, what have you been able to discern or conclude about the parts of characters that have not been visible in past versions of the banner?

All the spots that weren't visible in past versions have inconsistencies as far as I can tell. I was desperately looking for even one spot that wasn't visible in a past version that matched the E3 mural, but found none myself.

I thought people already came up with reasons the cloudd were different and vaanrose agreed that they're possible? His main conern was a rock in the bottom right I think.

There's some other spots too:

Behind Cloud there's 2 crystals, in one of the versions you can see one of the crystals sticking out between his legs, but the 2nd crystal is not viewable in any version. Then in the leak there's only 1 crystal instead of 2.

The whole island that disappears and that section of the waterfall that's curved, they are never visible in any past version of the mural, and thus they are completely missing in the leak.

There's a mountain that has 3 rays of light, Ray A is visible in one version, Ray B is partially visible in another version, Ray C is never visible. The leak has Ray A pretty accurate, Ray B is semi-accurate having a slightly different shape, and it has no Ray C.

There's a conglomerations of rocks behind Nana, Nana is one of that chars that has basically not moved at all so she's in front of those rocks in every version. In the leak those rocks are non-existent.

There's a few more examples like this if you want me to continue.



Edit: Meant to say Nana, not puff.

 

[Calane]

Lot's of insiders are hinting at a "bigger" character missing from the mural, perhaps one that will be announced at the game awards. Best guess seems like Sora.

Sora would be great, but it's obvious that the best guess is a Dragon Quest rep!

C'mon, Sakurai! ...Please?

(I won't give up until my dreams are officially crushed.)

 

[Johnknight1]

okay but i swear i saw ridley and geno in the clouds

"I saw Ridley and K. Rool in the clouds" will forever be an amazing Smash speculation/Brawl joke.

God... Brawl had some killer jokes.

The "YOU MUST RECOVER" Dojo update is up there as well.

 

[epicgordan]

Again, knowing how photography works and the internet and whatnot, photographs, even digital, cannot process depth perception. Especially if we're talking about pictures within pictures. This is why the Mona Lisa looks better in person that it does behind a laptop.

So when you zoom in on a still photograph, you get problems with depth perception and some really awkward optical illusions. Like, say, shadows in darkened areas, or more commonly, a lot of blur. Especially if you add in a plastic layer.

Honestly, the only thing that's truly missing is gameplay footage. That would probably convince just about everybody here of its authenticity. I recall being a huge denier of the ESRB leak until I saw the video footage on YouTube, and completely accepted it as real. Even as people were comparing Bowser Jr.'s recovery to Diddy Kong, which even I thought was absurd since the character animations seemed far too elaborate and unique for them to be merely recycled.

But through all intents and purposes, these picture leaks are going to look a lot better when viewed from the same distance that they were initially taken.

Probably the one thing that might be a red flag about the blank Battlefield render might be the crystals on the stage itself--you look closer, pretty much everything lines up perfectly between the two images.

 

[Johnknight1]

It's gonna be Thanos and when you download him than half the roster gets removed until you finish his campaign.

I was not expecting Thanos to be our "Fortnite rep" but it makes sense.

 

[vaanrose]

I thought people already came up with reasons the cloudd were different and vaanrose agreed that they're possible? His main conern was a rock in the bottom right I think.

Some of the discrepancies are easily explained away, even if they actually do exist, there's still reasonable doubt they're the result of the low resolution photograph. Other parts are less easily swept under the rug. I think one of the most telling aspects is the entire section hidden behind Bowser. He's a solid wall that completely covers up everything behind him, and that section is one of the sections between the leaked empty banner and the official empty banner with the most differences.

 

[HyruleHero]

For all the people that don't believe this leak, thats all well and good but using the background may not be the best way. The image of the background we have (with no characters) was clearly printed on a piece of paper. It is very possible that any errors could be caused by ink running out or other printing errors. This holds true to the roster photo as well. I think that unless someone comes forward with why this is fake we won't be able to confirm or de-confirm this leak.

 

[Jetsurge]

"You shouldn't expect too many new characters, except you should"
- Sakurai

It's only 10 unique newcomers. Brawl had 18 unique newcomers and Smash 4 had 15 unique newcomers.

 

[Idon]

caused by ink running out or other printing errors.

I very much doubt that a printing issue would result in different features being dispersed erratically throughout an image on specific points of interest.

 

[Johnknight1]

Sora would be great, but it's obvious that the best guess is a Dragon Quest rep!

C'mon, Sakurai! ...Please?

(I won't give up until my dreams are officially crushed.)

Same but this guy instead:

Although Geno vs. Cloud vs. Sora vs. Crono would be a God tier match up.

 

[Thirdkoopa]

"I saw Ridley and K. Rool in the clouds" will forever be an amazing Smash speculation/Brawl joke.

God... Brawl had some killer jokes.

The "YOU MUST RECOVER" Dojo update is up there as well.

we must recover

from this immense amount of ****posting

 

[Godzillathewonderdog]

Have we seen the battlefield version of Corneria in Ultimate before today?

 

[perfectchaos83]

For all the people that don't believe this leak, thats all well and good but using the background may not be the best way. The image of the background we have (with no characters) was clearly printed on a piece of paper. It is very possible that any errors could be caused by ink running out or other printing errors. This holds true to the roster photo as well. I think that unless someone comes forward with why this is fake we won't be able to confirm or de-confirm this leak.

Considering that the origin of this leak is a PR firm for marketing material, I feel they'd have good and/or properly prepared printers

 

[Tree Gelbman]

Some of the discrepancies are easily explained away, even if they actually do exist, there's still reasonable doubt they're the result of the low resolution photograph. Other parts are less easily swept under the rug. I think one of the most telling aspects is the entire section hidden behind Bowser. He's a solid wall that completely covers up everything behind him, and that section is one of the sections between the leaked empty banner and the official empty banner with the most differences.

Bowser confirmed to be an absolute unit.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Night guys will chat more tomorrow.

The question remains though will this banner be decoded whether real or fake? Find out tomorrow on Smash Boards.

 

[Chiroz]

Again, knowing how photography works and the internet and whatnot, photographs, even digital, cannot process depth perception. Especially if we're talking about pictures within pictures. This is why the Mona Lisa looks better in person that it does behind a laptop.

So when you zoom in on a still photograph, you get problems with depth perception and some really awkward optical illusions. Like, say, shadows in darkened areas, or more commonly, a lot of blur. Especially if you add in a plastic layer.

Honestly, the only thing that's truly missing is gameplay footage. That would probably convince just about everybody here of its authenticity. I recall being a huge denier of the ESRB leak until I saw the video footage on YouTube, and completely accepted it as real. Even as people were comparing Bowser Jr.'s recovery to Diddy Kong, which even I thought was absurd since the character animations seemed far too elaborate and unique for them to be merely recycled.

But through all intents and purposes, these picture leaks are going to look a lot better when viewed from the same distance that they were initially taken.

Probably the one thing that might be a red flag about the blank Battlefield render might be the crystals on the stage itself--you look closer, pretty much everything lines up perfectly between the two images.

The things I am talking about are not "dark" or "light". It's outright missing parts of the stage. Missing crystals. Missing floating rocks. It isn't about it being blurry or not. The "light shaft" I am talking about is extremely visible, even in the leak, Shaft A and B and super visible, yet Shaft C (which should be literally right next to Shaft B) is non-existent (it's actually not even a light shaft, it's just light reflecting off water from the waterfall).

If you want to know it's the rightmost front-side mountain, right behind Dedede (it's actually not light, but water from the river). Also that same river is non-existent on the leak. On the leak it looks like a lake that ends as opposed to a river that falls off the mountain. And before you try to explain why that happens, let me tell you that curiously the "lake" portion of the leak is always visible in all previous versions of the mural, but the river portion of this same lake was never visible and coincidentally it's also missing from the leak even though the lake section is still there.

So like either they decided to cut/delete/change all the objects that have been behind characters in all previous versions or a guy was just filling in the blanks with clouds and whatnot (or letting Photoshop fill it for him) and obviously couldn't guess when there was a river, an island, crystals or anything else.

 

[TVDart]

In the end, the choices are either this leak is real, or whoever made it put in so much effort into the leak that it's literally commendable. As of now, the most that can help "disprove" the leak is minor inconsistencies with the background from the blown up leak compared to the actual mural. But honestly, I'm gonna be left impressed either way. That's how I felt on the ESRB leak, and it's how I feel now.

 

[Godzillathewonderdog]

It seems the hammer item now makes the same sound effect it does when you hit something with it in the Donkey Kong arcade game. Also when to hit an opponent a blue visual effect appears similarly to the arcade game.

 

[epicgordan]

These issues are worth considering but at the same time Snapchat ****ed the video so hard in compressions that we could easily be misseing things.

Regardless of the background errors. I find it highly unlikely the leaker thought to:

Give shadow a pose that’s just like his artwork throughout his games

Make marshal the center of chorus kids(hell even put them here to begin with if fake)

Added Mach rider with arendwr that clearly takes from the old and new for both them and the bikes no leaker has ever been able to fake a render that way. They always choose modern looks and mess something up.

Issac having a dinjin is also something I find incredibly hard to believe someone added if fake, especially the plant life.

The character models are so unique and have too many intricate and well thought out details for someone to initially fake this.

Also no fake leaker is ballsy enough to leave Incenroar out.

Not to mention that the background shows us the image is printed out for display in stores overhead. Which i can guarantee you no one with a job that had access to this would think “yeah let’s make overhead 360 posters like game stores that will make this stand out!”

Then there’s stuff like how Marth was moved so he doesn’t block roy.

And as much as people want to refute it. No way did anyone make grinch renders of all things to make their fake seem legitimate. There is no logical conclusion to come to that.

Could it be fake? Sure, is the background off? A little. But Nintendo’s messed up minior things before with art design so the background changing or getting move around isn’t too unlikely imo.

Honestly there’s too much thought and effort put into this for any one person to come up with this elaborate leak imo. It bears so much resemblance to past real leaks, has strong backing and just makes sense.

It’s why I’m staying team real for this.

Also I find it unlikely that if someone made this they would not be boasting their ego right about now. No faker can resist that. We never have a day where a big leak like this that’s fake goes unclaimed.

Palutena is the closest thing. And no one really cared about that leak. They were like “neat we already knew Sakurai bias was gonna add her though”. It didn’t spread like wildfire like this and it had one character, this is seven. If someone put all this time and effort to fake it, I can’t see them not boasting like their a god about how great their fake was by now.

Again I’ll acept if it’s fake but it’s just too real to me

Do note that some people are crazy and irrational enough to do it. Heck, the guy that posted this leak is real and has real ties to Bandai Namco.

I am team real myself, but I can definitely see a scenario where an employee who doesn't give a rats behind about getting fired, blacklisted, and sued to oblivion by Nintendo and Square Enix (among others), AND be more than willing to waste away much of their life in the process, of creating an elaborate fake leak just for the sake of notoriety.

As far as I can tell, the guy is still employed over at the company he works for. For how long, I'm not so sure.

But regardless of the absolutes some people may be making--even some highly respectable members on here--I think the only way we can truly tell if the leak is fake or not is to wait for a newcomer reveal. Whenever we get one, anyways.

 

[Tree Gelbman]

I find it ironic the guys playing in these images are named Steve and Chad.

Nintendo:

 

[SoccerStar9001]

The image of the background we have (with no characters) was clearly printed on a piece of paper. It is very possible that any errors could be caused by ink running out or other printing errors

Nintendo editing the background is more likely than this honestly. It would oddly specific that all/most errors occurred only in difficult to see area.

 

[SuperSceptile15]

Wait a minute... HE KNEW. Go to 4:13.

 

[TVDart]

Do note that some people are crazy and irrational enough to do it. Heck, the guy that posted this leak is real and has real ties to Bandai Namco.

I am team real myself, but I can definitely see a scenario where an employee who doesn't give a rats behind about getting fired, blacklisted, and sued to oblivion by Nintendo and Square Enix (among others), AND be more than willing to waste away much of their life in the process, of creating an elaborate fake leak just for the sake of notoriety.

As far as I can tell, the guy is still employed over at the company he works for. For how long, I'm not so sure.

But regardless of the absolutes some people may be making--even some highly respectable members on here--I think the only way we can truly tell if the leak is fake or not is to wait for a newcomer reveal. Whenever we get one, anyways.

Honestly imagine being an actual worker at a graphic design company with real ties to Smash Bros, and making a fake leak for the hell of it, only to lose your job to it.

 

[HyruleHero]

Considering that the origin of this leak is a PR firm for marketing material, I feel they'd have good and/or properly prepared printers

thats true I guess it could be a contrast problem as well though - with only the darker areas being truely not visible (like the island).

I do want this leak to be true, Banjo and Isaac would be great.

 

[Captain Shwampy]

Yea if this is fake whoever painted those renders studied well on the characters and an actual fan of the series they originate from

 

[Johnknight1]

we must recover

from this immense amount of ****posting

Honestly I feel like Sakurai was ahead of the curve with ****posting. Because like... at least 15% of the Dojo posts for Brawl were ****posts. Same thing with Melee's Dojo probably.

At least for Smash 4 he could just Miiverse it all up (RIP IN PEACE MIIVERSE, WE MISS YOU!).

 

[FixedFun]

Do note that some people are crazy and irrational enough to do it. Heck, the guy that posted this leak is real and has real ties to Bandai Namco.

I am team real myself, but I can definitely see a scenario where an employee who doesn't give a rats behind about getting fired, blacklisted, and sued to oblivion by Nintendo and Square Enix (among others), AND be more than willing to waste away much of their life in the process, of creating an elaborate fake leak just for the sake of notoriety.

As far as I can tell, the guy is still employed over at the company he works for. For how long, I'm not so sure.

But regardless of the absolutes some people may be making--even some highly respectable members on here--I think the only way we can truly tell if the leak is fake or not is to wait for a newcomer reveal. Whenever we get one, anyways.

Is it really worth it?? What if no one ever hires him again because of this leak? Seems very risky to me

 

[Solmatter]

I don't think backgrounds being different outright disproves any images... it's not uncommon for an art director to say "You know what? Hide those two crystals because they're interfering with character x's silhouette." I'm not even sure if I'd feel better if the backgrounds matched, because then I would be tempted to say that the leaker definitely just ripped from the treehouse footage that we all overlooked.

 

[SoccerStar9001]

Is it really worth it?? What if no one ever hires him again because of this leak? Seems very risky to me

The dude probably wasn't expecting to be caught out. That or he is framing someone.

 

[Das Koopa]

I should note that while I am team fake, the lack of the fortress is very interesting. I feel like the Gif MORE OR LESS demonstrates it's absent and not simply hidden away by poor quality, but that fortress is quite visible in the actual official mural, and assuming this person erased characters and did a shop job, I have no real idea how he would've missed it.

I look at it like this: certain structural changes are a red flag if they are absent from the mural but were absent on the E3 blank, but it's odd for things to be on the mural that he would've had to take from to fake it yet he cut them out anyway.

That's one reason I haven't totally written this off yet. It could legitimately be some arbitrary last-minute change, I just don't really know WHY they'd do it, which is why I'm leaning fake.

 

[Darkraid]

I am still TeamFake

Reasons
1) Sakurai said not to expected many characters.
2) Revealing so many at once? Unlikely.
3) If I have a real leak then why would I take such a blurry pic?
4) Some chars looks off.
5) i am still thinking Incineroar is in.

 

[Wiziliz]

Okay but the real question is

Who will be fighter 69

ecks dee

Mach Rider deserves that number.

 

[TVDart]

I'd also like to make note of the fact that minor inconsistencies in prerelease leaks have happened before. Most notably is the ESRB leak's inconsistent height issue found on this screen here, that turned out to be an actual glitch later found in the demo of the game.
Since this leak already shows that whatever graphic artist was working on this had access to the placement of characters directly, it's not hard to believe that they had a chanced piece of art. In the graphic design field, it's easy enough for a boss to go, "Hey, can you remove this part of the background, since we're gonna move Luigi over it?"; So, if this was taken between changes, slight inconsistencies can occur.

 

[Wiziliz]

Either it's fake, and we get surprised at the remaining characters, and Sakurai doesn't have his work leaked.
Or it's real, and we are given a base roster far better than what I could ask for, the greatest base roster I expect for any Smash game to ever have.
Either way, it's a good outcome.

But please, please be real!

 

[epicgordan]

Is it really worth it?? What if no one ever hires him again because of this leak? Seems very risky to me

The point is there are people who are so bloody irrational, and do the most bloody irrational things just for the sake of notoriety. And they have neither the foresight nor the care in the world whether or not they end up destroying their lives. It's why celebrities that begin to lose relevance constantly do everything in their power to receive notoriety just for the sake of getting noticed. Or why we have people who would go out of their way to commit mass murder just so they could get the death penalty. Only nowhere near as large a scale. But mindset is the same.

It doesn't have to make sense. Which is why it is considered insane.

Now I am on team real here, but I do know one of the guys debunking this leak is trying real hard to explain to me why the leak isn't real. And while I get the general idea, I cannot fully process every minute detail of what he was trying to say. Probably saying far too much in an attempt to be as specific as possible. Which I can totally sympathize with.

The best I can do is look at the side-by-side comparisons/transitional comparisons. But even with that support in order to prove his point, the two pictures still look so bloody similar with maybe very miniscule differences that I cannot totally disregard the leak. I just hope he knows that I can at least project why the leak might be fake, and why somebody would go out of their way to create such a bloody elaborate fake leak.

Really, there's likely only one of two possible paths we can see this going--either we're getting The Grinch Leak, or we're getting Vergeben. Maybe with one or two unknown additions here or there. Banjo could still be possible. We could still get Isaac. Heck, that mysterious character that some people are suggesting was left out of the Grinch leak? I hope it's Sora, Heihachi, or Crash.