Official Smash Ultimate Discussion

[Deleted member]

So um, someone posted this on 4chan:
View attachment 172359

Link to thread: http://boards.4chan.org/v/thread/436570814#p436572942

Isn't it just that one figurine?

Spoiler

 

[Luigi The President]

Reffering to your point about insiders colliding... Yeah not really. Saying KH insider is a stretch - Mystic's last tweet about it literally says some of the characters. That's not all nor does is support it in the same way Papagenos.

And no offense to Papagenos, but he's a fairly new youtuber who is citing an anonymous source he hasn't met before who is a second hand source from a supposed Microsoft source. I'm just saying, its not as credible as people we have relied on all speculation season.

Insiders aren't colliding. Every insider we keep track of says something is wrong. And it is my oppinion and my choice to believe that means this ain't it.

When I went to sleep Mystic's last word was that it was unconfirmed. Please source this for me, I'd appreciate it

 

[Apu Arms]

So um, someone posted this on 4chan:
View attachment 172359

Link to thread: http://boards.4chan.org/v/thread/436570814#p436572942

That is an amazing picture, even without the context of the leak.

 

[Untouch]

ryce isnt some nobody
he leaked mvci long before the game came out lol

 

[Michele]

This is interesting: https://www.reddit.com/r/smashbros/comments/9rnokz/sprout_item_in_depth_look_at_sources/

It's a closer look at that unknown item, but conclusion is it seems to be an generic item.

 

[Chrollo.]

Yeah that's my take on it.

Which falls in line with Mystic saying it was real, then going unsure due to conflicting sources on the matter.

It seems like nobody is truly sure what's going on, even if they say they know.

Yeah, I been saying for the longest that nobody who says they know actually knows what’s going on. I don’t think they’re fake or anything, but leakers are only told what their sources want them to know. In the past few days we’ve seen Mystic go from it being confirmed real to him not being sure, Spawn Wave went from saying it’s probably fake to he’s not sure, Verge surprisingly didn’t freak out and gave a safe answer saying it simply conflicts with his info but made sure to add that he’s not deconfirming any characters, even Gamexplain is backing off the leak. Now it seems like Ryce hasn’t seen visual evidence countering this and he’s just trusting someone’s word (Unless he has said differently while I typed this) and seems to be referring to a single character (probably Incineroar) which makes things even more confusing. Liam’s the only other one who implied they’ve seen visual proof from what I know, and who knows if Liam meant actual visual proof. The whole thing’s just a mess.

 

[Ignoritus]

That doesn't mean the stereotypes aren't accurate to that age group. Why do you think they exist in the first place? From Google: 15% of Snapchat's users are 35+ years old. Then think of how many generations that "35+ years old" stat spans, and how that percentage is probably skewed to users closer to 35 than to 50. It's not 15% of 50 year olds, it's 15% of 35-99 year olds, and I really doubt 50 year olds make up most of that 15%. Him being 50 is very relevant to the validity of the leak because he is of the demographic that hardly touches Snapchat. Not to mention he's a 50 year old who seems to make decisions that a 20 year old would make, like breaking an NDA (concerning 2 large corporations) on social media that can easily be traced back to his name. It just doesn't make sense why someone would be so careless about their career at an age where you'd be focused on keeping a steady job until retirement.

Your first point is still completely moot. You've literally just proven "not a lot of the older generation uses snapchat", not that none use it. Hell, your own statistics admit that there are members of the older generation using snapchat.

I already refuted your second point in this discussion, so I'm just going to direct you to check that post in my history.

 

[Deleted member]

No, a camera wouldn't completely change areas like that. And the same problem areas are also visible on the image with the characters on it. So it's not distortion from a camera.
Also, we don't know who this expert is or if they even looked at the image.

Hi there!

Please take a look at this handy pyramid:

What you're doing is called a contradiction, and is a complete and utter waste of both of our time. Please use this handy pyramid to build better arguments that are more constructive toward our discussion.

Have a nice day!

 

[Luigi The President]

Hi there!

Please take a look at this handy pyramid:

What you're doing is called a contradiction, and is a complete and utter waste of both of our time. Please use this handy pyramid to build better arguments that are more constructive toward our discussion.

Have a nice day!

Where's condescension on the pyramid cause this is it

 

[papagenos]

I have to say, if this whole leak situation was just a pull to get people interested in watching a mediocre Grinch movie, even if just ironically, then I can only applaud the impressive scope of this event to just score some ticket sales. Now I want to go see it. I wonder if my local smash buddies would be into an upcoming Thanksgiving Christmas movie...

The magic must be working.

The Grinch hires ACP-PLV to do their marketing...

someone at ACP-PLV is like "i dont think this movie is going to get much attention... wait, i know how to get this movie out there: makes the greatest fake smash leak of all time JUST to market the Grinch"

If that was the case I have to say ACP-PLV is the best marketing company of all time.

 

[Phyr]

Edit: Move along, Banjo pic was just the new figure.

It's his first4figure. Someone even linked a video down the thread.

 

[OptimisticStrifer]

Are you the squidward 4chan resetera invasion poster by any chance lol? If so I love your dedication

Nah; I don't touch that place lmao.

 

[Gothitelle]

Hi there!

Please take a look at this handy pyramid:

What you're doing is called a contradiction, and is a complete and utter waste of both of our time. Please use this handy pyramid to build better arguments that are more constructive toward our discussion.

Have a nice day!

And what you just did was responding to tone, which is below contradiction and, according to you, an even bigger waste of time!

Don't think you're above people, it's unflattering.

 

[Deleted member]

How am I making assumption when two Insider clearly use "Doesn't match what I saw" compared to the usual "Heard" they use?

"Saw" what exactly?

A list? A picture? A document? The character select screen? Gameplay footage?

He's not specifying what he saw, and a lot of things that people can SEE, can easily be falsified.

 

[TheCJBrine]

Source

And just as I ****ing post the source, he add something else, interesting.


Source


I got

I don't understand; what he's saying could very well be possible with the whole "partially correct roster," and there's nothing saying that this banner would be made in advance as Nintendo would have supplied them with the graphics and such, and the character he says is missing would probably get revealed after the other characters, especially if it isn't Incineroar (and no one seems to care about saying his name anymore) so it could be Sora at the VGA's or something.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Things go missing, because the contrast hides them. How is that hard to understand? Things "move" because they're screenshots from a MOVING camera, and that causes blur. Not to mention, the paper it's printed on CLEARLY has a convex curve, which is obviously gonna distort the placement of elements on the image. These points have been brought up again and again and again and again and AGAIN to counterargue this dumb point, but people STILL insist that NO, this debunks the Grinch leak. There's WAYY to elements affecting the quality of the leak image, that it's honestly more impressive that it lines up to such a degree at all. If anything, the images being so SIMILAR proves it's legit, not the other way around. Not to mention the possibility existing that Nintendo, for whatever reason, simply decided to update the background art.

It's like, goddamn, of all the points people could latch onto, the background one is possibly the dumbest dead end of them all. It's LITERALLY the same dumb nonsense as "Shulk is a photoshopped L.Mac," and "Wario's face" from the ESRB one. Is this REALLY the hill you wanna die on, where are potentially more interesting angles that you guys could use to debunk this leak?

First off, try and get a grip of yourself for a moment, it's not worth losing your head over this. It's okay to argue why you think it's real, but do it in a respectful manner.

Secondly, a slow moving camera (which this is, otherwise things would be far more smudged) and the change in contrast that we see does not alter shapes as drastically as some of the examples we see here, in fact the contrast changes mean that we should have an easier time seeing the highlights that used to be on the right crystals, but have now been significantly changed. And the castle man, it's just gone, not even a smidge or smudge of it is left. There are changes, that's for certain, and if this is the real deal then we'll see those changes on the final mural aswell.

Third, I'm not saying the leak is fake, and I even said that there are possible explanations for why they'd change it, I could for example see a scenario where they remove some of the clutter from the background to put further emphasis on the characters. I'm completely neutral when it comes to this leak as I understand both sides' points, I'm open to all possibilities, and I'm neither desperate for this leak to be real or fake as I'm completely set on the character front, so I'm not the one you should be venting at.

 

[Imadethistoseealeak]

And here we are, even Ryce isn't sure.

This is actually what I was arguing, someone might have known all the Character Reveals, and lied about them past a certain point (maybe because he was told to?)

Am I crazy or are we interperting that message differently. He's saying he can't imagine someone deluging true leaks and then changing their mind half way through, and then he says it's hard to believe that there would be any technical reasons for a character they know about (Incineroar) being cut from the Grinch leak.

Seriously he's saying that it's hard to believe that. And sure it's a possibility - just as possible as someone faking it.

PS I'm going to be driving for the next hour so excuse my delay in responses

 

[hazza5557]

Why do people think the Banjo figure disproves the leak?

 

[papagenos]

Well that was rude.

to be fair I do say I'm going to spend the video rambling haha

 

[Luigi The President]

From my understanding the primary drive against the leak from insiders is Incineroar and another character aren't present.
Interesting.

Am I crazy or are we interperting that message differently. He's saying he can't imagine someone deluging true leaks and then changing their mind half way through, and then he says it's hard to believe that there would be any technical reasons for a character they know about (Incineroar) being cut from the Grinch leak.

Seriously he's saying that it's hard to believe that. And sure it's a possibility - just as possible as someone faking it.

PS I'm going to be driving for the next hour so excuse my delay in responses

Completely unrelated but Twintelle AND Urbosa in your wishlist? You have true taste my friend

 

[Schnee117]

The Grinch poster actually showed up at a Nintendo event and was legitimately handed out. That is all. Take what you will from it

London Comic Con isn't a Nintendo event.

Where's condescension on the pyramid cause this is it

ManlySpirit being a condescending ****?
Must be a day ending in a Y.

 

[Icedragonadam]

I'm leaning towards fake on the Grinch rumor right now. But I'm also starting to doubt Incineroar. I believe he was one of Nintendo's catfishes to catch any suspected leakers, and Vergeben and his source fell for it hook line and sinker.

 

[Deleted member]

And what you just did was responding to tone, which is below contradiction and, according to you, an even bigger waste of time!

Don't think you're above people, it's unflattering.

I wasn't trying to argue with them. There was no argument to address. Just a simple "nuh-uh." If people wanna be taken seriously, they need to present a lot more than playground antics of "NO U!"

Give me a solid argument with solid reasoning and evidence if you can. Not kindergarten-level arguments. He could begin by explaining WHY the camera wouldn't change those elements, rather than just saying they would "just because" and leaving it at that. That's ****ing dumb and lazy. If people's arguments are gonna boil down to dumb **** like that, then there's no point in having any discussion at all. Back up your points with conrete reasoning and evidence. If you don't know, then you don't know, stop pretending that you do. If an expert says, "this is what happens with photos, because of X and Y," you don't counter that with "no it wouldn't" and not provide ANY reasoning or explanation to back up that point.

 

[meowth_thats_wrong]

Your first point is still completely moot. You've literally just proven "not a lot of the older generation uses snapchat", not that none use it. Hell, your own statistics admit that there are members of the older generation using snapchat.

I already refuted your second point in this discussion, so I'm just going to direct you to check that post in my history.

That wasn't even my point. My point was that the older generation would be far, far less likely to use Snapchat. Of course it's impossible for literally every single person above 35 to not own Snapchat.

 

[Deleted member]

Honestly, things are at a stalemate right now like it was with box theory:

Two sides have good points, but neither side's point can be 100% proven at the moment. It's all theories and speculation, and is waiting on hard evidence to confirm things one way or the other. Thankfully, we're most likely gonna know things very soon thanks to how close we are to launch. Hopefully an early November Direct will clear things up.

 

[TMNTSSB4]

If we don’t get a new Pokémon rep...oh well Mario has been through that before

 

[Mellowy Yellow]

Some people are reporting that Eric has deleted his second LinkedIn account

 

[KMDP]

That would work, however there is one character that break this, it's Incineroar. They all seems DEAD SET on Incineroar and not others characters.
Like, out of the question.

I think they saw stuff for Incineroar, whatever that is

Yeah, Incineroar is still the ringer here.

Here's a scenario which might be what is happening here:

Incineroar is in, but he's going to be the first DLC character (just like Mewtwo in Smash 4), and this was the plan from the start (maybe they'll release him to tie in to the reveal of "Ash's Incineroar" in the anime; which could happen, say, early next year). Production on Incineroar started properly a few months ago.​

​

Since they were already going to make Incineroar, they already have the mural painting for him prepared, and so can make murals including him, this allows Nintendo to exploit fan expectations by allowing leakers to pass it around deliberately.​

​

The reveal of Meltan already proves that the Pokémon Company is willing to do things like this.​

 

[Will]

Why do people think the Banjo figure disproves the leak?

Something something Omni something something Photoshop, who knows? People did the same thing with Dr. Mario in 2014.

 

[lightdrago]

What are the chances for a direct next week? I am aware of the rumored Nov 8 date, I just want a consensus.

 

[Chrollo.]

Fake or real, I just really hope Shadow is in. Because it’d be hella weird for Nintendo remove Shadow as an assist and replace him with someone considerably less popular than him. And if Shadow is somehow a boss I’ll accept it if he shoots his gun at the player.

 

[NoPLo]

It has been a while since I posted here helping with the ESRB leak from Smash 3DS. Hi everybody

So here's something you can try with the background if you have photoshop, and understand what happens to the image because of the low quality and artifacts caused by the recording.

Let's compare the clean background with the leaked background. Look at the spots marked in red, which are (at least to me) the most suspicious spots in the image.

Now, let's apply a filter to the clean background: Filter > Noise > Median.

See what happens to the waterfalls if I increase the value of the filter:

The waterfall from the right tends to dissapear, just like in the leaked image.

And this is what happens to the castle area:

Doesn't it look a lot more like the leaked image? I just played with the "median" filter in photoshop, that's all. You can try!

So, yeah... My point is that we have been look at the same exact background all the time, but it has been severely modified because of quality and artifacts stuff. Don't forget we are looking at the screenshot of a video in motion of a draft print.

(If you want the same result, apply Median 19 for the waterfalls and Median 28 for the castle area).

 

[Michael the Spikester]

What are the chances for a direct next week? I am aware of the rumored Nov 8 date, I just want a consensus.

At this point I expect a direct on the first week of November.

 

[FalcoXP]

That wasn't even my point. My point was that the older generation would be far, far less likely to use Snapchat. Of course it's impossible for literally every single person above 35 to not own Snapchat.

Heck, im 24 and i dont really know what the heck is exactly Snapchat

 

[Luigi The President]

A big reason I'm team fake is because I refuse to get my hopes up.
Geno, Banjo-Kazooie, Shadow, lowkey Chorus Kids, all in this game?

How can you expect me to be team real with my heart broken so much before.

 

[kylexv]

Some people are reporting that Eric has deleted his second LinkedIn account

Well.

I would delete my LinkedIn account if a bunch of people tried to harass and contact me. Not suprising.

 

[Chief68]

Eric Bricard,

Ya, seems his 2nd Linkedin account is gone

 

[Tyrathius]

So did we ever get a confirmation on whether the Tour Bus' background matched the leak or not? I keep hearing different answers from different people.

 

[Deleted member]

What are the chances for a direct next week? I am aware of the rumored Nov 8 date, I just want a consensus.

We're kinda at the point where it could be any day now. We're in that month before release window that Nintendo likes to use for final announcements, so anything's possible!

 

[ZephyrZ]

Ah yes, the picture is so blurry that it flipped some crystals around, moved them to the right, and changed their shape a little. Just totally normal camera blur. We know it's normal cause some guy on Reddit said they know a guy who said so.

It has been a while since I posted here helping with the ESRB leak from Smash 3DS. Hi everybody

So here's something you can try with the background if you have photoshop, and understand what happens to the image because of the low quality and artifacts caused by the recording.

Let's compare the clean background with the leaked background. Look at the spots marked in red, which are (at least to me) the most suspicious spots in the image.

View attachment 172360

Now, let's apply a filter to the clean background: Filter > Noise > Median.

See what happens to the waterfalls if I increase the value of the filter:
View attachment 172363

The waterfall from the right tends to dissapear, just like in the leaked image.

And this is what happens to the castle area:

View attachment 172364

Doesn't it look a lot more like the leaked image? I just played with the "median" filter in photoshop, that's all. You can try!

So, yeah... My point is that we have been look at the same exact background all the time, but it has been severely modified because of quality and artifacts stuff. Don't forget we are looking at the screenshot of a video in motion of a draft print.

(If you want the same result, apply Median 19 for the waterfalls and Median 28 for the castle area).

That still doesn't explain the crystals being in totally different shapes and positions.